Brain Flatulance: Reflections of a Newbie

[zyzzyva57]

As Descartes once did, I have been thinking about what I know, or more precisely what Master Cramer has taught me about Wall Street...

First, DO NOT BUY (or HOLD) ON WISH/COULDA/SHOULDA...I am thinking about our Master's comments on Sirius Radio and why it should buy XM Radio now on the cheap. A big shoulda, but I will NOT buy "siri" based on shoulda. I am learning "shoulda" buys ain't any good! Common Sense ain't common, particularly on Wall Street...

Next, our Master warns do NOT bet against Nature, e.g., the Hurricane Season; however, it seems you can bet WITH Nature...For example, we know we will have hurricanes and we know FEMA will screw up...We know somewhere this winter will be the coldest ever--somewhere! We know there will be a Christmas Season and we know it will be not be as good as expected, because it never is--the season is either too long or too short or too something bad...We know before Jan 1, the big boyz and gurlz of Wall Street will dump stocks to jazz up things for the upcoming tax season--my point: BET WITH THE NATURE OF THINGS!

This leads to the FED: regardless what it decides on the interest rates, the FED will be considered wrong...

THE STOCK MARKET HAS TIPPING POINTS: The mood of the stock market half of the time goes up or down for no reason--the problem is you cannot ever be sure when the mood will shift and what will trigger its incline or decline, other than Tipping Points will be reached, but what will usually be the proverbial straw-that-breaks-the-camel's-back will be unknowable until afterwards...PROOF OF THE CHAOS THEORY...

TALKING HEADS HAVE BLINDING 20/20 HINDSIGHT!! CNBC operates in a total Now-w mode, so "yesterday" exist only as rationalizations for the Now-w! (At least Master Cramer will acknowledge screw-ups)

Master Cramer freely acknowledge what he does is more an art than a science, and the game is at least win a gnat's hair more than you lose