Weekly Stock Challenge 7/7/2006 - Win Free Trading Book

[Thierry Martin]

Stock Picking Challenge

Pick the highest percentage mover and win a free hardcover copy of Conquer the Crash!

Pick any stock that trades in the US market.

Your entry price will be the market open price on Monday morning.

Entries for following week's challenge opens at Friday's market close - 4:00 pm EST - and closes at 9:00 am EST Monday.

[Thierry Martin]

reef
I'll take RAE for next weeks challenge.

englishman26
I'll go wild and take GERI at monday's open.

NATHAN LLOYD
I'll short GM. I hate this over-rated stock.

MoMoney4Me
I'll take ANAD Anadigics @ open - long

BigDawg291
I will take HILL @ 3.42

aiki14
CHDT @ open if you please.

[clavocat]

short bsml at open...i gotta win with this stupid stock, down 4 days in a row then up 21% last week, so i never won!! lol

[chinaman711]

I'll take CWPC at the open.

[Svenwulf]

I would like to short PAAS. Can we call a price or do we just take the open?

[englishman26]

Just out of interest, why short PAAS this week??

[Thierry Martin]

Originally Posted by Svenwulf

I would like to short PAAS. Can we call a price or do we just take the open?

For this week, all picks are market open Monday

[Svenwulf]

Originally Posted by englishman26

Just out of interest, why short PAAS this week??

Sorry i didn't reply sooner, took the day off today.
My target short price i was expecting today was over $19. PAAS never really broke 18.50, not as high as i expected, but a large block came in today at the end, so tomorrow it should hit. (I know i know, i get 18.34 for the game) My taget cover would be 15.50 or less, within 2 weeks. So on to the analysis:

TA against:
PAAS has a very high beta, particularly compared to competition.
Expected profit taking most likely with more speculative stocks.
On my 5, 10 and month charts i see the adx softening and the chaiken starting to turn. Institutions are still sidelined or leaving this stock.
Three consecutive up gap mornings recent trend tells me this has to do with "monkey" biz- window dressing or options are possible explinations.
FA against:
A weak silver/zinc stock riding a short term high.
Silver bad short term against strengthening USD, more downside than gold as inflation hedge, less industrial use than copper. Zinc overpriced and specialty metals i think are still in correction.
A lot of exposure to mexico and argentina. Both i feel are the next battle grounds for the socialist trends latin america is showing. Mexican election is our catalyst for this trade- i think its coming up red.
CNBC running too much about precious metals- man on the street wants to buy, i want to sell.
Overall:
Contrarian way to play short term USD strength. Perhaps not the weakest stock in what i think is the, short term, weakest metal (silver) the zinc and mexican exposure compensate. As an aside, i was just as tempted to short OS, but it lacked the catalyst, other than the strengthening USD.
Risk: Everyone comes to their senses and sees the USD is going down, or worse, stagflation becomes the mindset, and everything precious metal takes off. Also, if the pro biz canidate wins the election, our catalyst is shot, and should cover quickly.
Reality: Long term stagflation is a tempting bet. Overall strategically bearish, but shorting something like PAAS i consider bullish, and only intended to take advantage of what i believe to be a short term rally along an overall downslope. Also i would never swing this contrary with real money, or even with that simulator, but i consider the weekly challenge kinda like lottery tickets, so its all about going for the home run.
**This is a newb trying to show his rigor, and for entertainment purposes only.**
This turned out longer than expected- anybody else want to post how/why they picked what they picked?
Yeah Nathan, GM is a pos company with an overvalued stock! Agreed, lol! Could they pull a boeing, when airbus looked like king oh so shortly ago?

[englishman26]

Interesting. I do indeed have the opposite view and think silver will be strong, dollar weak, in the coming weeks and months. Having said that, PAAS was going down before silver prices were so this is a weak stock. Having said that, with the recent upturn, I'd be going long on it here rather than short and i think it could see it's highs of the year again soon. As I see it, it's got above it's moving averages, and when the DMI crossed around June 15th it became a buy and it's widening out therefore getting a trend going - which appears to be upward. Target: $26 by september.

[NATHAN LLOYD]

GM got two upgrades today when it's sales decreased by 26%. They make this a good spin....LMAO. I can't believe all the upgrades and good stories spun off of this dying company. How often does this kind of stuff happen.

It's a joke; right? I honestly don't understand it. I just have to realize the niavety and inefficiency of the street. I thought the market was intelligent on average. It takes a lot of learning just how to accept the blind optimism of the market.

Does this company do anything else but sell cars? What makes it a good turn-around story?