MER - $500 on $55 puts

[MrSer]

Gambling with 500$ on 55$ puts. Hopefully there earnings report will be horrible. Most likely it will be ugly.

[netwrangler]

Originally Posted by MrSer

Gambling with 500$ on 55$ puts. Hopefully there earnings report will be horrible. Most likely it will be ugly.

January puts?

[MrSer]

Originally Posted by netwrangler

January puts?

Yup. What do you think about this?

[netwrangler]

Originally Posted by MrSer

Yup. What do you think about this?

You will need to move quickly. Since the JAN puts expire on the 19th, you don't have much time for the market to react.

Do you know when, on Thursday, MER earnings will be out? Yahoo Finance doesn't show a time. If it is after the close and it is good news, MER could gap up on Friday and leave you high and dry.

If the announcement is before the open tomorrow, you have a little more wiggle room. The JAN date is gutsy. You will get max value if you are right. Choosing the FEB date would have given you some time value in the puts so you wouldn't be wiped out by an up move.

But you didn't do that, so

• Figure out when the announcement is [you probably know already]
• Be ready to move as soon as you can trade after the announcement. I don't mean you should close the position as soon as you can. Ride a favorable tape, but close out if the tape goes against you.
• Watch out for pre-announcements that may trigger an early move.

Good luck

[MrSer]

Earnings is at 12pm and like i said i took a huge gamble. I'm predicting mer to write down more than expected thus causing the stock to go down. I'm predicting it to be around 48-50. This will cause my options to give about 400%-600% profit, but that is if all goes well.

[pedrom727]

Merrill earnings are before the bell..... *edit* if Merill has a huge writedown it could actually cause a move up, many were looking for Citi to come out with a write down in the range of $24 Billion and when they only came out with $18.1 Billion their stock suffered.

[MrSer]

Originally Posted by pedrom727

Merrill earnings are before the bell..... *edit* if Merill has a huge writedown it could actually cause a move up, many were looking for Citi to come out with a write down in the range of $24 Billion and when they only came out with $18.1 Billion their stock suffered.

The run up today is because of them running up their own stock to minimize the loss they will have on the day of their announcement just like C and many other major companies. Wheres proof that it will be announced before bell? All i found was they will announce at 12 pm.

[aiki14]

Here's the press release, report at 0800
January 4, 2008 4:15 p.m.
Merrill Lynch to Announce Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2007 Results on January 17

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--January 04, 2008--
Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MER) plans to announce fourth quarter and full year 2007 results on Thursday, January 17, 2008. John Thain, chief executive officer, and Nelson Chai, chief financial officer, plan to host a conference call that day at 8:00 a.m. (ET) to review results with the investment community. The general public is invited to listen to the call by dialing (88 810-0245 (inside the United States and Canada) or (706) 634-0180 (outside the United States), or via a live audio webcast at www.ir.ml.com. On-demand webcast replay will be available shortly after the call at the same web address.


CONTACT: Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc.
Media Relations
Jessica Oppenheim, 212-449-2107
Jessica_Oppenheim@ml.com
or
Investor Relations
Sara Furber, 866-607-1234
Investor_Relations@ml.com

SOURCE: Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc.
Copyright Business Wire 2008

[MrSer]

Originally Posted by aiki14

Here's the press release, report at 0800
January 4, 2008 4:15 p.m.
Merrill Lynch to Announce Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2007 Results on January 17

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--January 04, 2008--
Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MER) plans to announce fourth quarter and full year 2007 results on Thursday, January 17, 2008. John Thain, chief executive officer, and Nelson Chai, chief financial officer, plan to host a conference call that day at 8:00 a.m. (ET) to review results with the investment community. The general public is invited to listen to the call by dialing (88 810-0245 (inside the United States and Canada) or (706) 634-0180 (outside the United States), or via a live audio webcast at www.ir.ml.com. On-demand webcast replay will be available shortly after the call at the same web address.


CONTACT: Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc.
Media Relations
Jessica Oppenheim, 212-449-2107
Jessica_Oppenheim@ml.com
or
Investor Relations
Sara Furber, 866-607-1234
Investor_Relations@ml.com

SOURCE: Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc.
Copyright Business Wire 2008

Thank you. What do you believe will happen to MER's stock price?

[aiki14]

Originally Posted by MrSer

Thank you. What do you believe will happen to MER's stock price?

I think it goes up and leads a market rally. I think the market really has any negative so baked in it's absurd, and I believe Thain will do such an effective corporate enema that the market will react positively to it. If they are seen as fully divesting all of the crap it will signal at least a hint of the end of the subprime mess as it applies to the market.
I could be utterly wrong but that's the bet I would make. And that's the bet that will get the better odds than the other side where everybody else is.
Should be fun, I'll be in the chatroom here, when the call is going on, I might even listen in. If you can, join us.