A simple system (or more)

[Luc1Grunt]

I don't use these per say, but here are a couple starter systems.

1)
MACD crossover above zero line
volume (daily) 20% above previous


2)
MA 50 crosses above MA 200
OBV rising last 2 days
RSI (15) below 70

3)

RSI(2) below 2
lower candle shadow 2 times as long as body
high volume previous 2 days

Even a caveman can do it? No, but a start.

add or subtract as needed.....

Disclaimer: I don't use these.

[Luc1Grunt]

I tried to answer some r/r and position sizing on another thread....I have a hard time explaining some of them and I'm somewhat protective of my on-line "profile". Not in fear of losing an edge, but of my personal information.

This is a great thread which explains a system build.

Of note is the anti-martingale approach to multiple losses in a row. If you are experiencing an above average drawdown, adapt and be ready to alter your system to correlate with the market. Nothing stays the same year over year.

[Luvnrio]

Again, I'm truly grateful for your posts... The thread is genuine, deserves a read by all rookies...

[aiki14]

Originally Posted by Luc1Grunt

Of note is the anti-martingale approach to multiple losses in a row.

Also of note is the anti-depressant approach to multiple losses in a row.

Pay attention to this guy newbies, ignore the sparkling demeanor, and legendary charm, and learn.


Fun having you in the chat room Grunt, been a rush these last couple days.

[Luc1Grunt]

I enjoyed it and thanks Aiki! I learn from you guys everyday. Wish I could get on more often, but it effects my concentration!!!

[netwrangler]

Originally Posted by Luc1Grunt

I don't use these per say, but here are a couple starter systems.

1)
MACD crossover above zero line
volume (daily) 20% above previous


2)
MA 50 crosses above MA 200
OBV rising last 2 days
RSI (15) below 70

3)

RSI(2) below 2
lower candle shadow 2 times as long as body
high volume previous 2 days

Even a caveman can do it? No, but a start.

add or subtract as needed.....

Disclaimer: I don't use these.

Morning Grunt,

Here's a starter system for swing trading using dailies:

• Buy/Short when price crosses EMA50 going up/down
• Sell/Cover when price closes below/above SMA10 for two consecutive days.

For the stocks I've back-tested using this system, the hit percentage is high.
There are also significant periods where the system tells me to hold no positions, which, imo, is a good thing.

I haven't used this with real money yet, but I may try it out.
I might want to add MACD or Stochastics for confirmation of a position start.
Also, I figure I need an additional exit trigger, a stop or trailing stop, that keeps me from getting caught on the wrong side of a breakout.

Comments?

[Luc1Grunt]

Net, I did a quick scan on the parameters you listed.

With only the upward crossing of the close above EMA(50) I got 326 matches.

With a minimum average volume (90 days) of 500,000 I got 22 matches: Here's a simple backtest which included the volatility of July and again in November:

Trade StatisticsThere were 1101 total stocks entered. Of those, 851 or 77.29% were complete and 250 or 22.71% were open. Of the 851 completed trades, 401 trades or 47.12%resulted in a net gain.Your average net change for completed trades was: 0.55%.The average draw down of your approach was: -7.73%.The average max profit of your approach was: 10.39%The Reward/Risk ratio for this approach is: 1.14Annualized Return on Investment (ROI): 12.27%, the ROI of ^SPX was: 10.45%.
Exit StatisticsStop Loss was triggered 350 times or 41.13% of the time.Stop Profit was triggered 288 times or 33.84% of the time.Trailing Stop Loss was triggered 0 times or 0.00% of the time.You held for the maximum period of time (25 days) 213 times or 25.03% of the time.An exit trigger was executed 0 times or 0.00% of the time.

Beats the S&P. Stop loss at 8% and profit stop is 10% (not ideal, but a benchmark.

[Luc1Grunt]

Thiery, delete the above post please...wrong content

[Luc1Grunt]

crossed above EMA(50) and MACD fast line crossed slow line within last day. Stocks above $30:



Trade StatisticsThere were 380 total stocks entered. Of those, 322 or 84.74% were complete and 58 or 15.26% were open. Of the 322 completed trades, 145 trades or 45.03%resulted in a net gain.Your average net change for completed trades was: -0.37%.The average draw down of your approach was: -6.19%.The average max profit of your approach was: 6.00%The Reward/Risk ratio for this approach is: 0.90Annualized Return on Investment (ROI): -6.20%, the ROI of ^SPX was: 0.52%.
Exit StatisticsStop Loss was triggered 137 times or 42.55% of the time.Stop Profit was triggered 89 times or 27.64% of the time.Trailing Stop Loss was triggered 0 times or 0.00% of the time.You held for the maximum period of time (25 days) 96 times or 29.81% of the time.An exit trigger was executed 0 times or 0.00% of the time.

[Luc1Grunt]

Price crossed above EMA(50), MACD fast crossed above MACD slow in last 3 days, price above 30, average volume (90) above 500,000.

Backtest with exit trigger price below SMA(10) for 2 consecutive days:

8% loss stop, 10% profit stop or exit trigger

Max holding period 25 days:

Trade StatisticsThere were 695 total stocks entered. Of those, 630 or 90.65% were complete and 65 or 9.35% were open. Of the 630 completed trades, 231 trades or 36.67%resulted in a net gain.Your average net change for completed trades was: -0.01%.The average draw down of your approach was: -3.75%.The average max profit of your approach was: 4.76%The Reward/Risk ratio for this approach is: 1.00Annualized Return on Investment (ROI): -0.33%, the ROI of ^SPX was: 0.52%.
Exit StatisticsStop Loss was triggered 62 times or 9.84% of the time.Stop Profit was triggered 117 times or 18.57% of the time.Trailing Stop Loss was triggered 0 times or 0.00% of the time.You held for the maximum period of time (25 days) 5 times or 0.79% of the time.An exit trigger was executed 446 times or 70.79% of the time