Charting the Dollar -- Weak outlook

[billythekid245]

Most of the charts for the major currencies pairs (paired with USD) are showing that the dollar will continue to weaken. These next few weeks will be really crucial.

GBP/USD is on a tear. I wouldn't take any position but long. It has legs and is still moving.

USD/CHF: Has reached a key support level coming into a wedge. If it breaks through the floor of 1.1950 or so, should drop like a rock.

USD/JPY: There may be hope for the dollar

Your thoughts...

[Lou]

your a currency trader?

[Thierry Martin]

Should we add a forex section to this forum? I only see the ocassional post, but maybe with a separate section there would be more action.

[Svenwulf]

as a gold bug, currencies are never far from my mind. its the heart of the inflation talk everyone seems so interested in lately. everyone chalks the dow rally to a falling usd (where'd we hear that a year ago?) i will skip the political implications, and just offer an excercise that may confuse some of those "in the know."

a barrel of crude oil is less expensive today then it was 2, 3 or even 5 years ago. ?!?! i must be looking at those charts upside down again, right? i admit the long crude chart looks phenomenal. it is priced in usd. just so we compare apples to apples, gold also is often priced in usd. compute the number of barrels of crude one z of gold would buy, arbitrarily in jan 06. simplified numbers, crude at 61/b, gold 540/z. 8.85 barrels. jan 07, crude at (even excluding panic) 60/b, gold 640/z. 10.67 barrels, eh? oh im cherry picking, i did say "today" which would be 74/b, 665/z, or 8.99 barrels, still cheaper on this relative measure then jan 06. the result is more pronounced over a longer time, and works with almost any commodity relative to oil. so what happened- all those nigerian rebels, all iran's sabre rattling, increased demand from china we hear so much about, and crude is less expensive today? either gold outperformed, which it did not (take a look with crude/vs silver- thats out perform) or crude oil, despite the nominal price increase over the last year, has remained steady or down. now what if i asserted that gold has not changed in value in 2000 years? surely for another time...

this really is a topic for another thread, but it all has to do with why interest rates, currencies, and eventually nations will behave the way they will. maybe thats hyperbole, or perhaps i wear the tinfoil to get better reception. i accept the fact that war is the greatest generator of debt known to man, and if you can keep a nation pacified while it wages a perpetual war, you have a nation which celebrates it's entrance into slavery, financial or otherwise. and here i promised no politics....

and of course, one can not ignore the influence of speculation, both historically and currently. best wishes.

[billythekid245]

Interesting analysis and commentary. I really enjoy hearing people's thoughts on the matter.

Which leads to a Forex forum category...I wouldn't mind it. I do not know if it will get a substantial amount of interest but I will certainly participate.

To answer a previous question: Yes, I am a currency trader. I am with a firm (that will go unnamed) in San Francisco. Most of my interest and skills in technical analysis come from my experience at the firm under a well known technician (Again, unnamed).

[Svenwulf]

with gold and oil at big time highs, i thought id give this thread a bump. for the record, dec gold settled 739.9, crude 81.78, or just over 9 barrels of crude per ounce of gold. the same as 2 months ago?

dont really know where to stick this, but reflation rescues never work. best wishes.

[Albert0373]

The canadian dollar today saw $1.001 USD....

5 Year chart (and other time ranges) comparing the USD to CAD
http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#char...urce=undefined


(...finally, I can use those random canadian coins I find)

[madcowdisease]

Originally Posted by Albert0373

The canadian dollar today saw $1.001 USD....

5 Year chart (and other time ranges) comparing the USD to CAD
http://finance.yahoo.com/charts#char...urce=undefined


(...finally, I can use those random canadian coins I find)

Heard the same thing on Squawk Box this morning. Pretty sad if you ask me and unless Big Ben wakes up we'll be looking at a stronger loon than dollar before long.


My question to you all is...

How will a strong loon affect the stock of Canadian companies?

[cramerica1972]

Originally Posted by madcowdisease

Heard the same thing on Squawk Box this morning. Pretty sad if you ask me and unless Big Ben wakes up we'll be looking at a stronger loon than dollar before long.


My question to you all is...

How will a strong loon affect the stock of Canadian companies?

i said that cutting the rate was a BIG mistake,the dollar is going LOWER b/c of it.we'll be paying for the cut in the way of HIGHER prices.

[JV_Picker]

Originally Posted by madcowdisease

Heard the same thing on Squawk Box this morning. Pretty sad if you ask me and unless Big Ben wakes up we'll be looking at a stronger loon than dollar before long.


My question to you all is...

How will a strong loon affect the stock of Canadian companies?

Any currency move will magnify any gain or loss, even if the stocks don't move (in loons).

I moved my Roth IRA from a CD to a stock account. Since I wanted the account to grow without much help from me, I picked stocks that pay dividends and earn money in the U.S. and elsewhere, plus one totally foreign play. My picks were GE, IBM, and ARA. All three have gained 0.1% (close to close) since the cut, and 7.6% since purchase at the end of August/beginning of September.

With a less valuable dollar, the rest of the world probably won't feel as inclined to loan money to the U.S. capital markets, but will buy stuff (who'd win: IBM vs. SAP? One guess...) and private company equity from us.