TOL, kneejerk overreaction or trap?

xboilermaker · 08-05-2005, 01:50 PM

Was (I think) lucky and caught (I think unless it turns back) TOL at the bottom of the 10% drop today. Would like thoughts on whether this is the beginning of the "bubble" some are suggesting popping, or just a temporary glitch in the upward trend. Was nice to get June price.

deepinwonder · 08-05-2005, 03:52 PM

My guess is both.

The problem is, many places are zoned so that the price of properties is going through the roof and homebuilders have to put something on them so that the total value is worth around four times the original price of the land, in order to get financing. This is driving prices too high for the average buyer, in many areas. The homebuilders are fighting against it and trying to get zoning changed, but when it comes to small timing politicians, it can be a hopeless situation.

We've seen this before, but TOL markets to the higher end buyer, so they may not be affected by it as much. Glad you got a deal! They are making good profits and I do think people over reacted on that insider selling news. As long as the stock keeps going up, who cares? Just put a stop loss on it, or something. ;)

deepinwonder · 08-05-2005, 04:08 PM

We're members of the National Association of Home Builders, here's a link so you can keep up on all the latest news:

http://www.nahb.org

My husband owns a construction company and we've just had a few days off waiting for a permit, but he's as busy as ever and winter is the most active building season here in the South.

08-05-2005, 01:50 PM	#1
xboilermaker valued contributor weekly challenge winner 2x Join Date: Aug 2005 Location: Rincon, Puerto Rico Posts: 612	TOL, kneejerk overreaction or trap? Was (I think) lucky and caught (I think unless it turns back) TOL at the bottom of the 10% drop today. Would like thoughts on whether this is the beginning of the "bubble" some are suggesting popping, or just a temporary glitch in the upward trend. Was nice to get June price. __________________ RinconPR.com - islandmon.com No Shoes, No Shirt, No Problem

08-05-2005, 03:52 PM	#2
deepinwonder forum leader Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: nc Posts: 1,183	re: homebuilders My guess is both. The problem is, many places are zoned so that the price of properties is going through the roof and homebuilders have to put something on them so that the total value is worth around four times the original price of the land, in order to get financing. This is driving prices too high for the average buyer, in many areas. The homebuilders are fighting against it and trying to get zoning changed, but when it comes to small timing politicians, it can be a hopeless situation. We've seen this before, but TOL markets to the higher end buyer, so they may not be affected by it as much. Glad you got a deal! They are making good profits and I do think people over reacted on that insider selling news. As long as the stock keeps going up, who cares? Just put a stop loss on it, or something. ;)

08-05-2005, 04:08 PM	#3
deepinwonder forum leader Join Date: Jul 2005 Location: nc Posts: 1,183	re: TOL We're members of the National Association of Home Builders, here's a link so you can keep up on all the latest news: http://www.nahb.org My husband owns a construction company and we've just had a few days off waiting for a permit, but he's as busy as ever and winter is the most active building season here in the South.

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