You, me, lets try to make some MONEY

[ronjeremy912]

What the play for the week boys?

[rgrbic]

I'm stickin' with CNTN for this week. I called it on 15-Mar as a watch for Monday / Tuesday (19th or 20th) and there was a chance to grab 25 to 30% on this one last week.

Of course I got in on Wednesday afternoon when it was the perfect time to sell! I decide to jump right in with 4,000 shares just shy of 1.18 - that's right, that was the high for the day (and week) before it decided to pull back. I would have sworn there was enough momentum to keep the bulls going.

As a result, I will be rooting for CNTN this week! My indicators are showing some nice potential in the next couple of days. MACD is starting to converge/diverge. Fast STO is ready to take off. RSI is about 33.

Next?


Bob

[ronjeremy912]

I hope you're right! I loaded up with some CNTN at .99!

[mlegha1]

Playing some momentum stocks,

JDO-- had a nice run on Friday hopefully it can make for a great trade for Monday/Tuesday.

DNDN-- FDA panel set to review this week(check to make sure) a lot of people have been buying it hand over fist.If news is positive it will go to atleast $5.30.If news is bad I'll short it.

USNA-- shorted it again @ $50.07 it had a bounce off 200 DMA with diminishing volume I think bulls are weak regarding this it could sell off pretty bad.

VG-- will short on any bounce

BVSN-- had a huge run up, had some profit taking but made a combeack later on Friday.It is certainly on my watch list for another move up.

[aiki14]

Calls on the integrateds, puts on the refiners. Watch the crack spread, and the Iranians.

[clavocat]

why u buyin puts on the refiners?

[metalheadrr3]

GROW, BTJ and SIMO for the week.

[aiki14]

why u buyin puts on the refiners?
The refiners have a big crack spread baked in, as it becomes narrow due to a spike in crude prices (read Iranian nonsense), they will take a hit quickly. The play is short term.

[clavocat]

i havent been active on the news or the markets lately, how will higher gas prices caused by mid east tension, cause the refiners to fall? and whats the read u suggested aiki?

[spanky]

Aiki,

I looked at the charts for XOM, CVX, and BP (first 3 integrateds I could think of) and the XOM and CVX charts look just alike - nearly back to the 52 wk hi from december. The BP chart looks like it has the most room back to it's 52 week high...

If the integrateds are going to benefit from the Iran instability, do you see BP as the bet? Or someone else?

btw, Welcome back, how was the trip?

[onlinesuccess]

Good call on GROW, boy did it GROWWWW!

[BigDawg291]

My best play today was a short of BSX that I have had since 18.41.

[Seamus]

BP was a good play when it dropped like a rock into the high 50's. It also has a good yeild from the dividen.
Remember though this is the stock that couldn't keep the Alaskan pipeline working! they have some other issues. However I did pull the trigger at 58.

[aiki14]

Aiki,

I looked at the charts for XOM, CVX, and BP (first 3 integrateds I could think of) and the XOM and CVX charts look just alike - nearly back to the 52 wk hi from december. The BP chart looks like it has the most room back to it's 52 week high...

If the integrateds are going to benefit from the Iran instability, do you see BP as the bet? Or someone else?

btw, Welcome back, how was the trip?

Thanks, the trip was terrific.
I am not a big fan of BP generally, the management is a bit weak, and they have been hit by a series of mishaps over the last 18 months. That may be a opportunity at this time but I'll stick with the other 2.

[aiki14]

i havent been active on the news or the markets lately, how will higher gas prices caused by mid east tension, cause the refiners to fall? and whats the read u suggested aiki?

I meant that the spike in crude would be directly caused by the Iranian nonsense. But as long as you asked for a read, here's a good resource for the Energy Sector
http://www.wtrg.com/index.html#Crude
and another
http://www.oilonline.com/news/features/

and if you are an alternative energy investor
http://www.biodieselinvesting.com/

[aiki14]

Here's a view from barrons that contradicts my play on the refiners:

Oil Refiners Have an Open Road
Banc of America Securities

THE GASOLINE SEASON'S JUST STARTING -- we maintain exposure to oil refiners with relative favorites.

Don't get fooled by margin volatility. Refining margins probably peaked earlier this week near $25 per barrel, although they might show a repeat performance as we enter the beginning of gasoline season where summer grade is prepared over the spring period.

A perceived peak naturally could incite calls for a pullback and we wouldn't be surprised to see some investors try, but underlying earnings remain well above expectations and with energy likely seeing strong support in the second quarter of 2007 as oil prices rise we continue to recommend strong exposure to refining.

We still favor Sunoco (rated at Buy with a target price of $85.00) as a top pick relative to its peers and recommend a swap into that name to maintain exposure to the group.

Gasoline inventories have fallen 17 million barrels, or 7%, over the past six weeks as heavy-refinery maintenance coupled with additional unplanned outages have restrained national production capacity. Meanwhile demand has remained strong at over 1% above last year, and on a demand cover basis current inventories are under 23 days, or over 6% below last year's similarly tight levels.

Although refinery maintenance is likely to sharply rise in the attempt to correct this problem, it is arguably too late in the season to outright fix it and gasoline prices should remain well supported through June when gasoline demand peaks. In the meantime crude prices should keep rising, compressing refining margins from the bottom-up.

East and Gulf Coast refining margins quarter-to-date have averaged over $12 per barrel with consensus estimates pricing in closer to $9.50 per barrel. Current margins have come in from over $20 per barrel down into the high teens but are likely to remain supported here between $14 and $16 per barrel through the second quarter, nearly 40% above consensus.

Our first-quarter estimates are based on refining margins of $9 per barrel with an approximate 25% sensitivity to every dollar difference. Estimates are under review as we discuss the quarter's operations with each company.

For the quarter ahead, seasonal trade continues. With inventories this tight, the country remains highly susceptible to gasoline-price spikes in the event of any further operational difficulties in the months ahead. Meanwhile overseas maintenance is in full swing in Europe and just beginning in Asia.

Although sector equity values have improved, they are not expensive remaining under 6 times EV/EBITDA [enterprise value / earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization] for our Buy-rated names.

The equities have underlying earnings support in this margin environment, high upside to consensus estimates and could see even further surprises if refiners are not able to ramp up utilization above 90%.

Come the end of May we might begin to get more concerned the margin trade will lose support, however with the possibility of another hurricane season ahead even that is not certain. With high reward, we are mindful of the risks and again stress Sunoco as a top pick for the best risk/reward ratio in the group.

[aiki14]

Regarding BP, from this morning's Dow Jones Newswire:

Warning Signs Should Have Spurred BP Executive

An internal BP PLC (BP) investigation into an explosion at its Texas City refinery found John Manzoni, the chief executive of refining, should have delved deeper into the true state of the facility after warning signals from previous accidents, the Financial Times reported on its Web site Monday.



The confidential report concluded that Manzoni lacked refining experience and failed to obtain information to better understand the complex refining asset and the risk of a big accident, although it clears him of "serious neglect or intentional misconduct," the FT quoted the report as saying.



The BP report, dated February 2007, also reveals tensions between him and Mike Hoffman, then group vice-president for refining and marketing, the FT said, adding that a standoff between the two contributed to Manzoni's lack of understanding of the risks at Texas City.



An explosion at the refinery in March 2005 killed 15 people and injured 180 others.



Newspaper Web site:

http://www.ft.com