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View Full Version : Tension's rising in the mid-east


TonyM
03-24-2007, 06:43 PM
Israel: Hezbollah, Syria Jeopardizing Lebanon Cease-Fire
6 minutes ago - Dow Jones News
JERUSALEM ( AP )Israeli Defense Minister Amir Peretz told the visiting U.N. secretary-general Saturday the continued captivity of two Israeli soldiers abducted last year by Hezbollah and Syrian arms shipments to the Lebanese militia are endangering the U.N.-brokered ceasefire in southern Lebanon.
Peretz met Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon at the start of his first visit to Israel since taking office. Ban is scheduled to meet Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas at his Ramallah headquarters Sunday and hold talks with Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and other Israeli officials in Jerusalem on Monday.
Peretz, greeting Ban at the Ben Gurion International Airport near Tel Aviv, said a main subject of talks would be the status of Security Council Resolution 1701, which brought an end to 34 days of fighting between Israel and Hezbollah on Aug. 14.
The war was triggered after Hezbollah guerrillas crossed Israel's northern border, killed three soldiers and returned to Lebanon with two captured Israeli soldiers.
The resolution authorized deployment of a U.N. peacekeeping force of up to 15,000 troops to help Lebanese troops police the southern border with Israel. It also calls for a halt in arms shipments to Hezbollah, and demands the "unconditional release" of the two Israeli soldiers.
"This is an unequivocal demand by the state of Israel," Peretz said Saturday. "We see it as the key to continuing the precise implementation of resolution 1701."
He added that failure to enforce the arms embargo "could cause the gravest damage, to the possibility of implementing the resolution and upset the stability existing today in south Lebanon."
Ban has criticized both Israel and Lebanon for violating the resolution, noting an increase of Israeli military overflights of its northern neighbor in February and early March. He has suggested an independent mission examine the monitoring of their border amid the Israeli allegations of Syrian arms smuggling.
Ban arrived in Israel on a Qatar Airlines flight from Egypt, where he held talks with President Hosni Mubarak, who is hosting U.S. Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice and Arab foreign ministers this weekend for discussions on the Mideast peace process.
In Cairo, Ban said he welcomed the formation of the week-old Palestinian coalition, which adds moderates and independents to a government formerly made up entirely of members of the hard-line Islamist group Hamas. He urged it to live up to the expectations of the international community that it recognize Israel and work toward peace.
The Palestinians have expressed hope that their more moderate coalition will lead to an end of year-old international sanctions imposed on the Palestinian government. Western officials have begun to reach out to the new government, but have not yet decided on whether to end the sanctions.
Ban said he would not meet Palestinian Prime Minister Ismail Haniyeh of Hamas, citing a busy schedule. He said he would, however, meet with Palestinian Foreign Minister Ziad Abu Amr, an independent.
A number of Western officials have reached out to the new government in recent days, meeting Palestinian moderates while still avoiding Hamas Cabinet ministers.
Israel already has rejected the new Palestinian government because its platform does not explicitly recognize the Jewish state. It has called on foreign governments to maintain their embargo, imposed after Hamas won legislative elections last January and formed a new government.
Ban said on his arrival in Israel that Rice's visit to the region and a summit meeting of the Arab League, due to convene in Saudi Arabia on Wednesday, came at a time of renewed effort by the Quartet of international peacemakers - the UN, the U.S., Russia and the European Union - to resolve the Arab-Israeli conflict.
"I believe this is a moment of gathering dynamism," he said. "Contacts between Israeli and Palestinian leaders have resumed, the Quartet has become more active and hopes to meet soon in the region itself ... and there is a renewed determination in the Arab world to reinvigorate the 2002 peace initiative. Our challenge is to weave these strands of potential into a fabric of tangible progress." > Dow Jones Newswires
03-24-07 1733ET
Copyright (c) 2007 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.

Lou
03-24-2007, 06:47 PM
add in Iran and a big war could start anytime now. the thing that cracks me up is we never people from Saudi Arabia come out publicly on our side. this conflict is never going to be solved.

coolio
03-24-2007, 07:51 PM
Here's a scenario that I think will play out on monday or Tues.

You remember that after the housing #'s came out all indices were up big. The rally was cut short on Friday b/c of those british sailors that were nabbed by iran and oil rose to $62. If you see a de-escalting of tensions over there, you will see a 100+ Dow day. Traders will remember the low housing #s and all will be good for one day.

Wed. and the balance of the week will see some official numbers coming out which should cause the market to behave normally, once again.

Lou
03-24-2007, 08:04 PM
Here's a scenario that I think will play out on monday or Tues.

You remember that after the housing #'s came out all indices were up big. The rally was cut short on Friday b/c of those british sailors that were nabbed by iran and oil rose to $62. If you see a de-escalting of tensions over there, you will see a 100+ Dow day. Traders will remember the low housing #s and all will be good for one day.

Wed. and the balance of the week will see some official numbers coming out which should cause the market to behave normally, once again.

the market could read this as war:

Expressing the divide between Iran and the U.N. demand, the acting U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, Alejandro Wolff, said:

"While we hope that Iran complies with this resolution ... the United States is fully prepared to take additional measures in 60 days should Iran choose another course."

aiki14
03-24-2007, 08:25 PM
The folks in the pubs here (basically the Joe Sixpack of the UK figuratively) are really making a big thing about this, watch for the British navy to put a presence in the area, then there will be some posturing. I'll be home monday and I'll be buying calls on the integrateds. Watch your long positions on the refiners, they have a big spread baked in and if oil spikes the spreads narrow quickly.

Hail Britannia the ruler of the waves.883

TonyM
03-24-2007, 08:34 PM
Here's a scenario that I think will play out on monday or Tues.

You remember that after the housing #'s came out all indices were up big. The rally was cut short on Friday b/c of those british sailors that were nabbed by iran and oil rose to $62. If you see a de-escalting of tensions over there, you will see a 100+ Dow day. Traders will remember the low housing #s and all will be good for one day.

Wed. and the balance of the week will see some official numbers coming out which should cause the market to behave normally, once again.

The rise in oil was less than a dollar on Friday, if the speculators were reacting to the Brit/Iran news then crude would have moved much more than that. When we see a $2 move in a half an hour to an hour, then the fear machine is cranked up and running.

I'm not sure the market will view this as a prelude to war just yet, I think the multiple UN deadlines and inaction have given the US and the UK a similar weighting as Opec has with the speculators; they consider their capability but doubt their conviction.

Aiki is spot on about the refiners if we do get the reaction. We can look back to last June to see how this might play out on an earlier start this year.

Lou
03-24-2007, 09:43 PM
The folks in the pubs here (basically the Joe Sixpack of the UK figuratively) are really making a big thing about this, watch for the British navy to put a presence in the area, then there will be some posturing. I'll be home monday and I'll be buying calls on the integrateds. Watch your long positions on the refiners, they have a big spread baked in and if oil spikes the spreads narrow quickly.

Hail Britannia the ruler of the waves.883



Joe Sixpack - thats great!