03-15-2007, 02:33 PM
What to do with Crude? (http://www.myaffiliateprogram.com/u/investor/e.asp?e=50&id=1219&p=videos/crude314/)
Gas prices are up, gas prices are down, and Crude can't seem to keep in line with the fluctuation rate!
I'm as annoyed as the next person with the high gas prices, seeing how summer vacations are coming up. This afternoon I received good news in the form of a web based video on Crude Oil that made me sit up and take notice.
It made me think; What's the big picture of Crude look like?
It made me think; Can barrels of crude go up to 47.00?
Overall, it made me want to USE the tools to spot the CURRENT trend for crude!
Take a look at the web-based ("YouTube Type") video (http://www.myaffiliateprogram.com/u/investor/e.asp?e=50&id=1219&p=videos/crude314/) and see if it made you think like it made me think.
03-15-2007, 03:36 PM
Well I can't pass up commenting on this, and we know I'm bully on oil, so don't take this personally.
I could scribble all over a chart and make a case for the price to go the other way. When he wrote 'supply' on the chart, I couldn't see where the chart showed me there was too much supply, I looked, but all I saw was squiggly lines. I've never known a chart to reveal inventory status, but I'm not exactly an expert chart reader so maybe someone can educate me on this.
Everything above $66 on the chart is geo-political risk, so take that out when looking at technicals because the run from $66 - $78 was based on a.d.d. fundamentals. Which is what we should always keep in mind with the Nymex speculators, they can change their mind about the most recent concern in supply and demand quicker than Jack can get banned from here.
It's been my observation that crude gets traded on the technicals when nobody can come up with a good story to trade on, such as weather, geo-political, etc.
The narrator also said that if the bounce goes above $63 then everything changes, well are we closer to $63 or $47? There was a solid attempt to drive crude into the $40's in January and I thought at that time that it would be successful for a short term, however it hit $49.90 and rebounded nicely and Opec had also started flapping their wings and making noise with the February production cuts.
Crude has been trading up to $62 and then shorted, usually followed by short covering a few dollars down, this low is a little lower than the previous lows of the last few weeks and could well test lower perhaps due to the overall market influence. I think it will rally again after the expiration of the April contract and retest $63 and if there isn't any news to push it higher they will sell that rally, rinse and repeat.
Gasoline is down about 5 cents today, but at $1.87 in March, that does not look good (for consumers) going into the driving months, imo. Gasoline should be around $1.40 or so with crude at $57, so either gas keeps coming down in which case I might reconsider what I'm saying here, or crude goes up to more closely match gasoline. More airline travel coming up too, so jet fuel prices should be going up considerably.
The direction the market ends up taking will likely have an influence on this outcome, especially in the hard landing recession scenario. Just keep in mind what happened last year around May, markets down, crude up, up and away. I'd also expect more intervention from Opec if the price cracks $49 and more refinery 'problems', and those pesky Nigerians, etc, etc. Not claiming conspiracy, but it just seems that these things happen at the most opportune times.
* I have noticed the crack spreads coming off a little over the last two days and it's being reflected in the refiners a little, although the figures are still quite profitable.
Ok, that's my .01 (inflation)
03-29-2007, 07:33 PM
What would this guy say now?
03-29-2007, 07:42 PM
What would this guy say now?
03-30-2007, 12:06 PM
Here is the latest one -
Crisis in Crude? (http://www.myaffiliateprogram.com/u/investor/e.asp?e=50&id=1219&p=videos/crisiscrude/)
Can trend lines, emotion, and Fibonacci Retracements alone give us the help we need to spot the trend? NO, we need to be able to apply MORE powerful tools to our charts to help find, trade, and gain from the trend.
This streaming video was produced just hours ago and applies these studies and one the powerful tool you may or may not have heard of. This powerful tool gave long and short signals in this market...both for gains. What to know the signals? More importantly... what's the latest signal telling us?...
Click here to watch this free video. (http://www.myaffiliateprogram.com/u/investor/e.asp?e=50&id=1219&p=videos/crisiscrude/)
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