Short Dow30 ProShares (DOG)

[retardude48]

On behalf of my investment committee at school, I am posting up this new thread. Currently, we hold 465 shares of DOG and we are reconsidering our position. We had a constructive debate and didnt end up anywhere. So im posting here and seeing what you guys thing.

Seeing that the DOW is holding up at 8,000 mark, we are reconsidering on what do next. Either buy a bit more or start selling our position. With that, either sell our whole position on it or start trimming down on it. What do you guys think/suggest? I would especially like to hear from the senior members. Thanks.

[simpletradesnet]

On behalf of my investment committee at school, I am posting up this new thread. Currently, we hold 465 shares of DOG and we are reconsidering our position. We had a constructive debate and didnt end up anywhere. So im posting here and seeing what you guys thing.

Seeing that the DOW is holding up at 8,000 mark, we are reconsidering on what do next. Either buy a bit more or start selling our position. With that, either sell our whole position on it or start trimming down on it. What do you guys think/suggest? I would especially like to hear from the senior members. Thanks.

I look at things mostly from a daytrade or very short term perspective, but if it drops I'd sell at 71.76 trading it as an ehi.

[simpletradesnet]

On behalf of my investment committee at school...,

what school?

[retardude48]

On behalf of my investment committee at school...,

what school?

Georgia Institute of Technology.

We are the largest endowment out of any university that is all managed by students. No teachers or professionals manage the portfolio.

You can check us out here (http://www.gtsf.gatech.edu/ic/). Some of the materials are a bit dated but we are in the process of developing a new website so we're not putting much on it.

[Bolimomo]

What is your price target and stop? And... more importantly, what is your time parameter.

Many "investors" don't think about it. They just buy when they think some stock price is "low", and... "I can wait out 10 to 15 years - in for the long haul". If it goes down, I will buy some more... They are just fooling themselves.

[0ICU812]

It depends on where you bought it at also. Technically, it seems the indexes will hold up and perhaps even rise some. Then, if they do not breakout, a re-test of the lows could be expected. So, if you wanna gamble a little, hold on for a possible re-test. If not, and you are green now, walk away with profits.

[simpletradesnet]

What is your price target and stop? And... more importantly, what is your time parameter.

Many "investors" don't think about it. They just buy when they think some stock price is "low", and... "I can wait out 10 to 15 years - in for the long haul". If it goes down, I will buy some more... They are just fooling themselves.

I think it would be irresponsible for any endowment fund or even an individual's nest egg or 401k to take a long term multi year horizon on a proshares short etf. Swing trading--ABSOLUTELY, but not multi year.

[retardude48]

What is your price target and stop? And... more importantly, what is your time parameter.

Many "investors" don't think about it. They just buy when they think some stock price is "low", and... "I can wait out 10 to 15 years - in for the long haul". If it goes down, I will buy some more... They are just fooling themselves.

I would say time parameters are within a 1-2 weeks we want to make a decision.

It depends on where you bought it at also. Technically, it seems the indexes will hold up and perhaps even rise some. Then, if they do not breakout, a re-test of the lows could be expected. So, if you wanna gamble a little, hold on for a possible re-test. If not, and you are green now, walk away with profits.

We bought it at $69.40 on July 11. We are in the green and I know what you guys mean about selling it and locking in the profits. Its just trying to convince the heads of the committee to look at this way.

I think it would be irresponsible for any endowment fund or even an individual's nest egg or 401k to take a long term multi year horizon on a proshares short etf. Swing trading--ABSOLUTELY, but not multi year.

Usually, we hold reg. commonshare stock in companies for ~3 years but obviously this is a short position on it and we do not plan to hold it for long. Some people in the committee say sell while others say hold and even some who say buy more. The decision is going to be made by a select few but it was an open discussion on the next move. I just posted on here to see what you guys think and I could bring your ideas to the next meeting.

So far so good guys. Thanks for your input at this time of night. Appreciate it. Any more ideas....please post.

[Bolimomo]

I would say time parameters are within a 1-2 weeks we want to make a decision.


What I meant by "time parameter" is how long you plan to allow the stock to reach your target price, or else you will ditch the idea. 1 year? 3 months?

[MoreYummy]

It seems he mentioned they usually hold 3 + years, but since its short position, so it should be shorter, but not sure how short...

[Horsefish]

IMO...this is a trade and a trade only. If you see the market rally as a result of the new administration coming in, add to the position but be ready to sell if the market tanks again in the next few weeks. Take the profits and invest them in something more suitable for an endowment.
One longer term idea is TBT which is short the 10yr treasuries. Interest rates are bound to rise later this year and this fund will make money on a longer term hold.
There is nothing wrong with holding cash for a while in this environment. Preserving capital for later use is also a good strategy here.

[Gordo]

[QUOTE=retardude48;187695] The decision is going to be made by a select few but it was an open discussion on the next move. I just posted on here to see what you guys think and I could bring your ideas to the next meeting. QUOTE]


The select few? What do they think? Thats all that really matters.

[Horsefish]

[QUOTE=retardude48;187695] The decision is going to be made by a select few but it was an open discussion on the next move. I just posted on here to see what you guys think and I could bring your ideas to the next meeting. QUOTE]


The select few? What do they think? Thats all that really matters.

Correct. Committee decisions aren't going to work here. Even a once a week meeting will kill your chances of reacting to market conditions. Maybe your discussion should be on overall portfolio strategy before individual stocks.

[Bolimomo]

I love investment clubs. Beardtown Ladies. LOL! And they had mis-stated their performance, from that they got free trips giving interviews...

[simpletradesnet]

Leveraged and inverse ETFs are short-term plays only

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/story.aspx?guid=%7BAFF43CB4%2D115C%2D4418%2DB4ED%2 D0B81AAA88749%7D&siteid=rss

It stresses:
The key point is that these ETFs provide leverage on a daily basis. Simply, investors are mistaken if they think they can buy a twice-leveraged ETF, hold it for a year, and end up with double the market's return.

[aiki14]

After seeing 8000 defended three times now and no reduction in volume at that level I would say the downside catalyst has to be considered to peter out at or near that level, buying a short or ultrashort ETF at 8280 seems unwarranted on a risk reward basis. A lot of the bad news is really baked in now, I'd be a buyer of the ultra long ETF here looking for a channel between 8k and 9k.

[Gordo]

After seeing 8000 defended three times now and no reduction in volume at that level I would say the downside catalyst has to be considered to peter out at or near that level, buying a short or ultrashort ETF at 8280 seems unwarranted on a risk reward basis. A lot of the bad news is really baked in now, I'd be a buyer of the ultra long ETF here looking for a channel between 8k and 9k.

After today, do you still stand by this statement? I'm not picking on you, but am curious because you alluded to a possible run down tomorrow in another thread.

I sore the bad news on financials and small caps on friday on Scottrade and had a feeling today would pan out the way it did. My key indicator was when Buffet tipped his cards and said these times are like the 'Pearl Harbor in financials.' He usually is pretty calm and reserved and that statement made me take notice.

[retardude48]

After today, do you still stand by this statement? I'm not picking on you, but am curious because you alluded to a possible run down tomorrow in another thread.

I sore the bad news on financials and small caps on friday on Scottrade and had a feeling today would pan out the way it did. My key indicator was when Buffet tipped his cards and said these times are like the 'Pearl Harbor in financials.' He usually is pretty calm and reserved and that statement made me take notice.

I know what you mean. But its still near the 8000 mark. If it goes down a bit tomorrow then ya, the 8000 mark will be broken. We had another meeting today and I mentioned the comment bout being short on the 10yr treasury. Sadly though, I feel like I got shot down. We are going to keep it DOG a bit more and see where we go. Thanks for your guy's comment. Lets keep this thread going b/c you guys have some great opinions/ideas.