Hot AAPL - why is AAPL down?

[OptionPundit]

Apple is to announce earnings tomorrow. Any indications on what's coming-up. I think it's been a while apple announced stock split as well, not sure but seems like there might a split on the way..and what a better time then earning. Any thoughts, perspectives?

[cryder17]

i couldn't find any viable stocks to put some excess funds in today so i finally asked myself "why don't i have any aaple". I was waiting a bit longer for the earnings to come out and hopefully find a better pullback than 93ish range, but i couldn't justify my waiting enough to keep from buying this one today.

I believe that apple will report a solid earnings report mainly because of the revenue received from the ipod. If this report is good, then the stock price could appreciate very quickly for the entire Q2 especially because of the introduction of the iPhone and iTV (the former hitting the market early february).

I was thinking a few weeks before christmas that apple was a little overheated, and quickly changed my views when i digged a little deeper on the projected performance outlook.

[OptionPundit]

I have very little doubt that. I am very very sure that they are gonna beat the estimates tomorrow. I have checked several sites (msn being the main one) their estimates for current quarter, next quarter, current year next year all are rising.

The drivers are going to be outlook, new product and split. And no one then can stop it surpassing 100 mark, the path of least resistance. once broken, it will charter into new territory.

[cryder17]

if the earnings tomorrow beat the estimates....this one will be fun.

I'm putting my stamp of approval on AAPL impending on earnings tomorrow.

[TonyM]

An interesting take on the iphone:

http://www.thestreet.com/_htmlatb/newsanalysis/investing/10332670.html

[cryder17]

Im not too sure what his take on the iphone is exactly...is his point about the hype of the product that no one has actually experienced??


*EDIT* NEEEEEEVVVVVVVVVERMIND. i completely missed the link to "nextpage"

[cramerica1972]

i predict apple will see $100 by feburary.

[deerhunter]

That is a fairly easy prediction cramerica, that would only be another 2-3% more than it is right now (come on man, make a bold decision say $110.00 :lol: .

[OptionPundit]

i predict apple will see $100 by feburary.

Don't be surprised if that happen even today itself :)

Here is the snapshot their earnings as well revenue estimates.
http://stocks.us.reuters.com/stocks/estimates.asp?symbol=AAPL.O&WTmodLOC=L2-LeftNav-23-Estimates

It is highly rated, 10 out of 10 for by msn scouter rating. Chart is shooting into the sky in straight line and OND was a "gift" period. Iphone has been announced so outlook also look good. Let's see where it goes tonight--

Cheers

[OptionPundit]

Playing backspread with 3 95sold/7 100 bot for 1.35 credit. You may check out for details at
my blog http://www.optionpundit.net

All the best for those who are playing AAPL tonight

[robvia]

Why is AAPL down a point today if everyone thinks they will report good numbers?

Who is selling or shorting?

I bought 3 February 95 options at 5.80 each.

[discrat]

I sold at the end of the Bell yesterday. Bought in a few weeks ago at $80.72.
I locked in my profits and figured over a 20% return was good enough for me.

I think people are selling in anticipation of Earnings. Much like me they want to lock in gains and dont want to get caught in a position after the Bell.

Honestly, to be in a position after bell when Earnings come out is not smart investing or trading. It could go either way, big time. And there is much more downside risk than Upside Reward if AAPL has a hiccup in report today. We might see a %5 or more haircut if there is any negativity in Earnings report.
If Earnings are really great I think we might see moderate Buying. Maybe 1% to 2% . JMHO !!! Just remember, alot of potential appreciation from here on out seems to have already been 'baked' into the stocks price as we have seen a huge appreciation in the last week or so since MacWorld. Remember the old adage , Buy on the rumour sell on the news. It holds true many times.

Conclusion: Terrible Risk/Reward in holding this stock after Bell.
Mightys well Just go to Vegas and put your best hand down.

[Damon]

I sold at the end of the Bell yesterday. Bought in a few weeks ago at $80.72.
I locked in my profits and figured over a 20% return was good enough for me.

I think people are selling in anticipation of Earnings. Much like me they want to lock in gains and dont want to get caught in a position after the Bell.

Honestly, to be in a position after bell when Earnings come out is not smart investing or trading. It could go either way, big time. And there is much more downside risk than Upside Reward if AAPL has a hiccup in report today. We might see a %5 or more haircut if there is any negativity in Earnings report.
If Earnings are really great I think we might see moderate Buying. Maybe 1% to 2% . JMHO !!! Just remember, alot of potential appreciation from here on out seems to have already been 'baked' into the stocks price as we have seen a huge appreciation in the last week or so since MacWorld. Remember the old adage , Buy on the rumour sell on the news. It holds true many times.

Conclusion: Terrible Risk/Reward in holding this stock after Bell.
Mightys well Just go to Vegas and put your best hand down.

I'm holding my shares, thank you very much. If it drops after earnings, I'm adding. So there! http://www.cramersmadmoney.com/images/icons/icon12.gif

[discrat]

I hope ladyluck is on your side :lol:
I know I have been in your position multiple times in the past. Usually I ended up losing big. All because I wanted to take a risk and go for the big quick buck.
And it usually went against me. As time went by I learned the pain is not worth the potential reward. At least for me.

And thru my own experience playing Earnings is a losing strategy in the long run. If you are up over time its mainly due to a winning streak similiar to playing craps or roulette at the Casinos. And we all know how that will eventually end up.
So I stay away.
I like to pride myself on prudent and diligent investing and trading and NOT base my investing and trading by just throwing the dice

But in all sincerity I wish you the best. And I will be rooting for blowout numbers from AAPL. And if they are I might jump back in in the next day or so.

Goood luck



P.S. Rereading my own Post I would like to say I hope I dont sound pompous or arrogant. It may seem that way but this is such a delicate topic to me. Mainly because I have found it to be a losing strategy if you are trading Earnings. Sorry if I came off that way

[robvia]

Boy, it really nose dived at the end, down 2.15, saved by the bell.

Still trying to go down in after hours trading.

If AAPL tanks after reporting, it means tech is done and everyone is moving to another sector. What they did to INTC was a joke. INTC met expectations, just didn't have the huge profit margins the street was expecting for the future, so they tanked it. Similar situation with CSCO.

[Svenwulf]

..halted in after hours..

[MoMoney4Me]

You should be able to pick up AAPL in the summer at about $65.
That will be a great entry point to ride into the year end with.

Check out a 3 year chart. Techs typically do well in the 4th quater and often follow through with the momentium into January. Then they'll pull back going into the summer doldrums, with a breakout again into the 4th quarter.

Just my past experience, and using that have been able to lock in some nice profits on AAPL and others in the tech sector following that thought.

[MoMoney4Me]

P.S. Rereading my own Post I would like to say I hope I dont sound pompous or arrogant. It may seem that way but this is such a delicate topic to me. Mainly because I have found it to be a losing strategy if you are trading Earnings. Sorry if I came off that way

My sentiments as well.

[dochesgriff]

Looks like the numbers were awesome. Shouldn't it be up a few points at least.

[robvia]

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/apple-profit-rises-78-ipod/story.aspx?guid=%7BCCF6CF6B%2DD2C6%2D435B%2DA5B2%2 DE6D92872F777%7D&siteid=yhoo&dist=yhoo

Yes, great report. I don't know what else the street would want. Huge gain, beat numbers, good looking future.

[808BigDaddy]

It is taking off in a/h:p

[cryder17]

low mac sales is the only factor that didn't beat analyst estimates. everything else beat the numbers.

can this be enough for investors to stall out on apple especially since tech is at the top and dwindling?

[dochesgriff]

Looks like the guidance for Q1 is lower than expected so we may see a little pull back in the after hours, but I think they are just setting up for a "upod" situation. They just have to bridge across 2 quarters before the iphone starts up.

[optimus25]

The stock was not trading when earnings were reported. Its up the last time I saw it. Though there are challenges to iphone, I think the stock has more upside from here.

[krazykowboy]

Looks like the numbers were awesome. Shouldn't it be up a few points at least.

typical scenerio.........
........... "buy the rumor,,, sell the news"

[discrat]

Yeah, I think the Street was looking for anything to sell this off. My gosh, in less than 3 weeks we have gone from $76 to $97. Guidance is everything and they did not meet the street's expectations.

People who got in at the Bell yesterday really had it coming to them. A pretty easy call that any slight hiccup in the report would cause a pretty good selloff.

I might get back in here Long again if we reach the 200 day ma around $75.

But right now I am seriously thinking about Shorting at the Bell in early Morning.
I think we will see a pullback to Suppport at the 50 dma of $86 in the next week before we see $96 ............

[TheBullPicker]

I've been in since $54, i will add more if it drops another 2 or 3 dollars

[bahroor]

neither strategy is wrong, the traders sold (will sell) the news, the investors held for years and no reason to sell now.

If you missed Cramer:

Until further notice, tech stocks are off limits unless they pass the Jim Cramer test, Cramer told viewers of his "Mad Money" TV show Wednesday.

The best way to trade tech stocks is by following the calendar, he said. And right now, the calendar says it's time to sell tech. Everybody on the Street knows about the calendar, and most money managers defer to its wisdom, he continued.

The secret to tech stocks is that they are seasonal. You sell them in January, you buy them in August, and hold on to them until mid-December, he said.

[discrat]

neither strategy is wrong, the traders sold (will sell) the news, the investors held for years and no reason to sell now.

If you missed Cramer:

Until further notice, tech stocks are off limits unless they pass the Jim Cramer test, Cramer told viewers of his "Mad Money" TV show Wednesday.

The best way to trade tech stocks is by following the calendar, he said. And right now, the calendar says it's time to sell tech. Everybody on the Street knows about the calendar, and most money managers defer to its wisdom, he continued.

The secret to tech stocks is that they are seasonal. You sell them in January, you buy them in August, and hold on to them until mid-December, he said.



UHMMMM........I think as of now I will start Buying Techs in January and selling in August. Forget Indicators such as RSI or MACD. Go with the good ole "Cramer Contrarian" indicator. The best strategy on the street ;)

[OptionPundit]

Generally speaking the potential formula for a great shoot to sky is :
Beat earning+Beat Revenue+beat outlook. Not a black & white formula but mostly its true. The most eagerly waited news for me " is the stock split..are they going to to do it? if yes, when are they announcing :)

There were swings in both positive and negative direction...I just looking for a move, doesn't really matter in which direction (though i would love upside) ...I an option trader...those asked me personally...here is my posting:
http://www.optionpundit.net/archives/56

In fact I played 3 different strategies on Apple last night....can't wait for the conference and the opening bell :)

Cheers

[bahroor]

UHMMMM........I think as of now I will start Buying Techs in January and selling in August. Forget Indicators such as RSI or MACD. Go with the good ole "Cramer Contrarian" indicator. The best strategy on the street ;)
UHHMMMMMM
you should do that!
buy it when its overbought and sell when its oversold :roll: :roll: :roll:
who needs RSI and MACD anyway.. just do opposite of Cramer :roll: :roll: :roll:

[discrat]

Generally speaking the potential formula for a great shoot to sky is :
Beat earning+Beat Revenue+beat outlook. Not a black & white formula but mostly its true. The most eagerly waited news for me " is the stock split..are they going to to do it? if yes, when are they announcing :)

There were swings in both positive and negative direction...I just looking for a move, doesn't really matter in which direction (though i would love upside) ...I an option trader...those asked me personally...here is my posting:
http://www.optionpundit.net/archives/56

In fact I played 3 different strategies on Apple last night....can't wait for the conference and the opening bell :)

Cheers



Yeah your probably right. But heres a formula for even a greater shoot to the sky:
$20k+casino+ blackjack. Get a face card and double down all of it on one hand. Then get blackjack and collect 30k as your gains. Thats about 150% gain in less than 5 minutes. And a yearly return of 15,768,000 %............
Pretty damn good.

[cramerica1972]

i think the steve jobs options backdating is hurting apple.quick question,will the Iphone cut into Ipod sales?what if that the reason for the drop.

[discrat]

WOW !! This thing is getting ugly real quick. Price is deteoriating and we probably will get back to the 200 day MA of $75 by next week.
A Nice Nice position to short here and make some fantastic money !! ;)

[robvia]

AAPL down 4 points at the open.

The thing that will hurt the iPhone when it first comes out, is it doesn't have the G3 network, which is broadband surfing. They will probably add that later. Having a G3 phone lets you connect it to your laptop and surf. Cube buddy has the Cingular 8525 and he surfs on his laptop here at work.

Cramer told everyone to keep AAPL, so it won't be a complete disaster.

[meth]

WTF#$@$#%^&%&*%*&$^%#

[BuyOnDips]

A guy on Fast Money said the stock went down after hours because Mac sales were flat Qtr to Qtr and that Ipod inventory went from a 1 to 2 week supply to a 3 to 4 week supply which could mean Ipod sales are slowing. Also all the good news is now out for awhile, which means there's nothing in the near term to give the stock a boost. Probably many are taking some profits since the stock has had a great run.

[robvia]

Down 5 points now. The volume is huge, already at 32 million, which is the average daily volume and we're only 45 minutes into the session.

[OptionPundit]

Hi All,

I was bullish on apple and therefore the startegy was to play for the upside, but protect on downside as well. Just to close the loop, with the fall of apple, I closed my trade for 7% profit. Those who know options and would like to know more about the trade (full details with my transaction details) are posted on my blog---> http://www.optionpundit.net/archives/61

Cheers and now looking for fib supports points to get in.

Profitable trading folks,

[computeraces]

Thanks for the advertisement.


I'm in Apple and it's more long term. I see this as people taking profits. I think it'll be back up in no time. This is no major loss, just a small bump in the road.

[dochesgriff]

I left my position this morning just above 91. Wanted to protect my gain from 85 and felt the downside was too great for the short term. I plan to buy again if it goes back to 85 and will also look to buy in about the middle of the quarter. I feel like the stock should be up on that blow out quarter, but I have learned to stay out of the way of a runaway train.

[Jack24]

Cramer said to:

Buy Buy Buy!!!!


last night. That was right around the time Apple was $99 in after hours trading.

Good luck.

[robvia]

That's funny. He has to keep the buy on AAPL, it's one of his top 3 growth picks for 2007 (CSCO, AAPL, NYX).

I don't think this drop will be that bad either. I think Cramer is going to call it a gift and tell everyone to back up the truck.

Volume is slowing down a little, but it's over 65 million as I type this. That's double what they normally get.

[Jack24]

That's funny. He has to keep the buy on AAPL, it's one of his top 3 growth picks for 2007 (CSCO, AAPL, NYX).

I don't think this drop will be that bad either. I think Cramer is going to call it a gift and tell everyone to back up the truck.

Volume is slowing down a little, but it's over 65 million as I type this. That's double what they normally get.

High volume and a dropping share price is very bearish price action and bearish on the outlook.

[bahroor]

I finally figured out the reason behind Apple's recent decline in share price, It's those lame, goofy PC vs. Apple guy commercials!! 8)

On a more serious note, Apple is looking very attractive right now for a swing/day trade for you flippers out there @ 88 PPS pending further confirmation Monday morning. Also needs to stay above the MA (50).

[bahroor]

well, enough time has passed since earnings to let this one settle and form a base.
new trendline in place. good candle with decent volume today.
will it follow it or break it? only time will serve to prove me wrong.

disclaimer: the above post was typed on a PC.

[robvia]

I also think it's bottomed. Went up yesterday, was up in after hours, but now I see it's down in pre trading, go figure.

I'm looking to buy April 80 calls.

[Ghost]

Don't be surprised if that happen even today itself :)

Here is the snapshot their earnings as well revenue estimates.
http://stocks.us.reuters.com/stocks/estimates.asp?symbol=AAPL.O&WTmodLOC=L2-LeftNav-23-Estimates

It is highly rated, 10 out of 10 for by msn scouter rating. Chart is shooting into the sky in straight line and OND was a "gift" period. Iphone has been announced so outlook also look good. Let's see where it goes tonight--

Cheers
Now that's irrational exuberance...begging for a short...

[Ghost]

i predict apple will see $100 by feburary.
Apples, no...CORN maybe:D

[Damon]

Now that's irrational exuberance...begging for a short...

Heh. You should short it then.

[Ghost]

Heh. You should short it then.

So, the best way to profit is to be a contrarian and short cramer's picks of the year.

[Damon]

Not with my money. I think APPL goes higher.

Then again, what do I know?

[Ghost]

That's exactly my point.

The prior posters I quoted thought aapl was going over par by Feb.

[robvia]

AAPL is moving up, I think it's hit the bottom and now is a good time.

I bought 5 July 80 Calls at $11.20.

Also think NYX is coming back.

I bought 5 June 80 Calls at $13.10.

[bahroor]

i concurr
formed a nice base for support over time.. earnings and iphone news sellers are gone.

looking to trade the breakout on BB squeeze

[TheBullPicker]

we'll see 120+ by years end

[Svenwulf]

what was going on with the options on aapl today?

[bahroor]

can someone remind me when we hit 100 please? my guess is mid march, thanks.
ill sell the century mark. GL all.

752

[nutsngum]

What do you guys think of the news about Jobs being possibly charged with security fraud?

http://www.thestreet.com/newsanalysis/techstockupdate/10340187.html