Siri Tanked

[ProEdgeBiker]

o boy, big drop again. will it be time to buy soon?

[Luc1Grunt]

Dropped $.04. Big drop?

What's your goal with this?

Casual glance shows a double bottom (slight) and it is now forming a flag.

Range is within the last two days candles.

average daily range is only abou $.18

This is not a fast mover on any account, hence my second question.

[bahroor]

o boy, big drop again. will it be time to buy soon?

haha, i thought it was down to 2 bucks when I read your post!

look at this chart:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=Siri%20&p=D&b=5&g=0&id=p39571835761

Breakout coming!!!

Disclaimer: I do not own a position in SIRI

[bahroor]

well, you called it...

bad news, taking a hit after-hours... expect a gap-down at open around 3.99

http://www.forbes.com/2006/12/04/sirius-xm-ford-markets-cx_pk_1204eyeonstocks.html?partner=yahootix

[zyzzyva57]

One of the Talking Heads on "Fast Money" said buy some when the stock hits $3

I plan on picking up a 100 shares probably around the last trading day of this month when the stock should hit rock bottom as the big boys dump out for the tax season, and just wait and basically forget the stock

If nothing else the stock should channel back up the first of the year for a quick few bucks, because this stock is always getting a bounce for some reason

Don't forget Cramer has given up his radio show, and he loves Mel, so...

Cramer, Inc., is simply too greedy to miss this extra chump money (for him), so he is up to something with radio after his book tour

[aiki14]

Cramer just posted this on realmoney.com:

Back on Merger Watch for Sirius

By Jim Cramer
RealMoney.com Columnist
12/5/2006 8:36 AM EST
Click here for more stories by Jim Cramer

It was bound to happen sometime: Last night, Sirius (SIRI - commentary - Cramer's Take) under Mel Karmazin became, well, less serious. This revision downward in Sirius sales comes at a really bad time: more than 10 trading days before Christmas.
I know for a fact that this management team was not going to make a call on sales until closer to Christmas. But the downward revision in subscribers, to a range of 5.9 million to 6.1 million instead of the targeted 6.3 million, is the first big miss for the Karmazin team. It remains to be seen whether the miss was telegraphed in the stock or whether the equity now has to drop below the $4 level. To me, the latter seems more likely.

I have to tell you, I thought that without a merger with XM (XMSR - commentary - Cramer's Take), these two companies might not create a lot of wealth in the next few years. Mel convinced me I was wrong.

I wasn't. I blew it. I should have stuck to my guns. I feel embarrassed. And I don't like it.

Mel had been money in the bank. Everyone deserves one strike. But in my league, two strikes and you're out.

Even a half-strike more and you're out in this satellite game. If Mel hits the low end of the range or doesn't hit it at all -- both entirely possible if sales don't pick up in the next two weeks -- this one's done for, without a merger.

Should have stuck with my first view.

My bad.

[InvestingMoron]

Well, it's not like I'm the expert on the board or anything. I think 3.60 is a decent price to get in at.

[zyzzyva57]

Want all this be impetus for Mel to reconsider merging with XM?

[nedfromsaltmarsh]

Wish me luck guys I'm in at $3.89. I'm hoping the Cramer rank & file come home from work and pull the trigger and move it up to $4.

[ProEdgeBiker]

Dropped $.04. Big drop?

What's your goal with this?

Casual glance shows a double bottom (slight) and it is now forming a flag.

Range is within the last two days candles.

average daily range is only abou $.18

This is not a fast mover on any account, hence my second question.

My goal is to make money. i originally bought @ 3.75, i thought it was kicking up but it tanked again. i was not home in order to sell @ 4.30 a couple days ago and now im kickin my self in the ACE. i only have 1000 shares of SIRI and i rather see it up then down.

[ProEdgeBiker]

well, you called it...

bad news, taking a hit after-hours... expect a gap-down at open around 3.99

http://www.forbes.com/2006/12/04/sirius-xm-ford-markets-cx_pk_1204eyeonstocks.html?partner=yahootix

Saw it COMING! DAMN!

[zyzzyva57]

I wish you major luck, but I honestly think you may have went in too early

But I do not play a guru even on TV, so don't listen to me

[Luc1Grunt]

My goal is to make money. i originally bought @ 3.75, i thought it was kicking up but it tanked again. i was not home in order to sell @ 4.30 a couple days ago and now im kickin my self in the ACE. i only have 1000 shares of SIRI and i rather see it up then down.


Makes sense with the 1000 shares....."big drop" caught me off guard....that was ahead of the bad news. Stumpjumper fan myself.

[zyzzyva57]

On a speculative stock, you should not leave home without setting a Trailing Stop, particularly with a "siri" type

This is a "trip wire" that can protect you, and okay, at times, hurt you

Personally, I set Trailing Stop and rather dump out early than catch a Falling Knife, but I love Momentum Stocks with stocks between 3 to $10 range stocks

If I can pick up a 100 shares of "siri" in the $3 range, I plan to buy and forget, because I think Sirius and XM radio will mate and Cramer will come to Sirius--And when one or more of these events occur it may happen when Sirius channels back up to the $4 range just I sell

This stock to me is to patiently buy and holdddddddddddddd...$300 is a good gamble, because "siri" ain't a bad stock (a la Lucent)

[ProEdgeBiker]

just hoping the NASCAR fans Gittir Done over the Xmas season. since it's coming in 07' to SIRIUS.

[zyzzyva57]

Just for fun since we all enjoy Sirius let me throw these 3 questions out:

If it was announced tomorrow Sirius was taking over XMR what would Sirius' stock do?

Or, suppose it was announced XMR was making a hostile bid for Sirius?

Why do we all assume Sirius would go after XMR and not the other way around?

Sirius' stock is certainly cheap enough for some company say Clear Channel to go after...

[GDFLS]

If it was announced tomorrow Sirius was taking over XMR what would Sirius' stock do?
It would jump up since that would mean instant growth, gaining all of XM's subs.

Or, suppose it was announced XMR was making a hostile bid for Sirius?
Again it would move up, a takeover anoucement would run the price up a bit no?

Why do we all assume Sirius would go after XMR and not the other way around?
Market Cap wise, SIRI is more expensive to buy. XM doesn't have the cash do they?

Sirius' stock is certainly cheap enough for some company say Clear Channel to go after...
It may well become a take over target of a "big media" company. They may be waiting to see if SIRI can follow thru on their business plan maybe?

At any rate, I love the product and still see growth ahead, maybe not seriodal growth we want to see to move this up, but growth none the less over the next few years.

[ProEdgeBiker]

good explanation. im a big fan of SIRI, not only the stock but i spend alot of time driving because of work and listen to SIRIUS all day. sure makes the drives seem alot shorter. All in all i hope it does well againg. SOON!:roll:

[zyzzyva57]

What if one of those Wall Street Zillionnaires went after both

For them, both stocks are chump change to them

A replay, say, of what happened to GM

Suppose either one of them or a major media company puts both stocks in their sights, or forces Mel to do what even Cramer wants?

In short, this time next year Sirius and XM will be one

The math and egos are going to force this union, which for Mel K. may be a shotgun wedding, but even kicked out he will make out like a bandit with only his ego bruised, which I would gladly settle for :)

[ProEdgeBiker]

i hope they merge. Crossing Fingers....:p

[GDFLS]

I guess a merger makes sense, but I am a SIRI guy. Both in stock and in product. There is a big part of me that wants to see SIRI do well and crush XM wiithout having to become "one"!:twisted:

[ProEdgeBiker]

Fanally SIRI is Starting to Do Some advertising. Using the $500 million Man! HOWARD STERN...

[Thierry Martin]

569

[InvestingMoron]

Anyone looking at an entry point here? $3.50 perhaps? $3.45?

[zyzzyva57]

I still think the math will force something in 2007

The math can over ride egos

Sirius takes over XM
or Xm takes over Sirius
or finally a 3d party, say, a "Clear Channel" or a zillionaire or Factor X moves in on one or both

I still feel Cramer will be on one by this time next year--I just do not buy the explanation Master Cramer gave on why he gave up his radio show--The explanation just does not fit his profile

[spanky]

I saw something in my wanderings on thestreet.com that said he's working on a show that is a podcast format as a replacement for the radio show. That makes sense, especially if he can rake in a little cash for each download.

[zyzzyva57]

Makes sense about podcasting if he can sell it rather than give it away

I just do not see Cramer walking away from an extra million or so dollars to devote more time to his family or a book tour (because he is on a book tour all year called "Mad Money") or his health

I say it in jest, but I do swear I am expecting to see him offer for a $300 yearly subscription a web cam set up to watch him sleeping for maybe 3-hours a night

From what I can infer from his appearances on "Imus in the Morning" and his asides on the show, sleeping--or tossing and turning--is all he is doing in bed, and I find that rather sad

But, you know, why not sell podcasts and be on Sirius or XM or both as well as sell watching him toss and turn for 3-hours

Sadly, I may not be joking :( I really like Cramer and do not like thinking one day he will simply fly apart chasing another million dollars he does not need

[InvestingMoron]

And SIRI heads north......without me :(

[zyzzyva57]

When "siri" truly heads north (and not just do its usual channeling) the move will probably come out of the blue much like the FDA yanking a drug in a Phase III Clinical Trial

[InvestingMoron]

Well, I got an order in @ 3.50

Puttin my money where my mouth is

[janos]

yeah, i purchased some as well. Sirius seems to have their radios in some of the finest cars.

[zyzzyva57]

From someone who does not even play a guru on TV: now that you have done the dirty deed :), put the stock aside now, forget about it, and be patient, and let the math do its wonders...With the ego involved, Mel will postpone the inevitable for as long as possible

The stock on the first week of trading will shoot up, but hang in there even when it falls back down, unless you have bought enough you can afford to play the channeling game...Otherwise, put the stock aside until you hear the glad tidings

Keep in mind these other stocks that make the major components for each's radio ("smdi" for Sirus and "stm" for XM), so you can move into the winning side--most won't know this and will rush into XM or Sirius, while you can be ready to make a nice side move when the math wins

Bookmark this chart and get to know it:
http://stockcharts.com/charts/candleglance.php?$SPX,SIRI,SMDI,XMSR,STM|D|B8,17,9

Booyah! You can win on this, if you are patient

[Kevin Wong]

I just bought some SIRI. A couple of years ago, I bought at $2.80 on speculation (dumb-luck really) and sold at just above $9 in a matter of months. I haven't bought a single share since, but I think a 10% gain can be reasonable. I certainly don't expect to triple my money again.

[chacho]

I just bought some SIRI. A couple of years ago, I bought at $2.80 on speculation (dumb-luck really) and sold at just above $9 in a matter of months. I haven't bought a single share since, but I think a 10% gain can be reasonable. I certainly don't expect to triple my money again.

Let us know if you find any more dumb luck ;)

[InvestingMoron]

I'm in (AH) @ 3.53

[janos]

Hey zyzzyva57,

How long/percent do you normally keep your stocks before you cash out?



I'm in (AH) @ 3.53
I am confused, AH-Armor Holdings, Inc is now $54.85 -- did you mean $53.53?

[TonyM]

Hey zyzzyva57,

How long/percent do you normally keep your stocks before you cash out?




I am confused, AH-Armor Holdings, Inc is now $54.85 -- did you mean $53.53?

a/h = after hours

[zyzzyva57]

Still learning, I take Cramer's Wisdom to heart, BUT I sift this Wisdom through the following web site to learn from the pros: http://www.investors.com/learn/s.asp

I put the rules that seem to work for me on electronic flashcards to review daily
http://www.flashcardexchange.com/tag/investing

My next step up this year is Narrow these rules down that work more time$ than not so I can "Blink" (see the book "Blink" )a stock and know rapidly if I want to set up a Google Alert, et cetera homework

Also, go to the chart of your favorite stock and study it through the years so you can get a feel for its psychology--a chart is like a family portrait--Take this one and plug in your stock:
http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=QQQQ&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p05005093181

If you want to have some fun learning with charts take Master Cramer's Hits & Misses, do some charts on em and see how he wins and loses
http://madmoney.thestreet.com/index.cfm?page=picklists&list=4

[aiki14]

For anyones info:
Merrill Rates SIRI a buy (12/22)
Morningstar rates SIRI a sell (12/29)
Morningstar talks about how XM (XMSR) has a favorable position due to lower churn rate (amount of customers dropping service) and better deals with automakers looking forward.
My take is this is a buy here and anything below 3.50 is a steal(but 3.45 could be 3.05 in a very short time). The holding period may be longer than my usual comfort range for trading but as an investment I feel comfortable with it. I'd be keeping a close eye on it for a big drop as it is very near the 52 wk low (3.50) and falling through that support would be troubling. As a consumer (I have XM because they have baseball but they are just about equal as I see it) I wouldn't be without it. I believe all or most new cars will have it as standard equip within a few years and the upscale cars have it now. How many buyers will be willing to fork over the monthly fees remains to be seen.

[rfi]

For anyones info:
As a consumer (I have XM because they have baseball but they are just about equal as I see it) I wouldn't be without it. I believe all or most new cars will have it as standard equip within a few years and the upscale cars have it now. How many buyers will be willing to fork over the monthly fees remains to be seen.

I own Sirius because XM is erratic in Canada. Sirius is much more reliable as the CBC is a part owner for Canada and Sirius up here uses Canadian satellites not American. So the point of contact is more directly above you instead of south. All vehicle manufacturers will include satellite within the next few years but the price will be worked into your payment. So there will be no need for any extra payments as satellite radio will become standard equipment in all vehicles.

[ProEdgeBiker]

I own Sirius because XM is erratic in Canada. Sirius is much more reliable as the CBC is a part owner for Canada and Sirius up here uses Canadian satellites not American. So the point of contact is more directly above you instead of south. All vehicle manufacturers will include satellite within the next few years but the price will be worked into your payment. So there will be no need for any extra payments as satellite radio will become standard equipment in all vehicles.

XM sucks here in the U.S. also.

[stockviper]

Today Howard Stern gets 83 million in stock bonus. Great, where are they pulling that cash from. It gets better, a few hours later Stern files to sell 83 million in stock.

I don't like the feeling I'm getting out of this transaction.

[bahroor]

Today Howard Stern gets 83 million in stock bonus. Great, where are they pulling that cash from. It gets better, a few hours later Stern files to sell 83 million in stock.

That's kinda funny.. :lol:
"here you go Mr. Stern, just our way of saying thank you"

Stern: "well, wow, 83 million?, I don't know what to say.. ummm..thanks, hmmm... wow... SELL PLEASE!!!!" :lol:

[stockviper]

That's kinda funny.. :lol:
"here you go Mr. Stern, just our way of saying thank you"

Stern: "well, wow, 83 million?, I don't know what to say.. ummm..thanks, hmmm... wow... SELL PLEASE!!!!" :lol:

I guess that shows great faith in the company you work for, ha?

[InvestingMoron]

Karmazin's got something planned. Just a gut feeling.....

[spanky]

Either that or Mel can retire with a big sent off package after his stock price dropping 46% in one year. It seemed to work for Home Depot's CEO

I have seen a lot of talk about a merger. I do not have either service, but I understand that there's a lot of overlap in content. It seems reasonable to have the two companies combine their resources to better compete with other media companies.

I'm stubbornly holding my SIRI shares -- hoping that the rumors are correct.

[aiki14]

I think that a CEO of a company with a depressed stock price would take a lot of heat grabbing 80 mil as a bonus. I have no problem with Howard taking the money, but whoever authorized the deal has to be facing a difficult task in justifying that to the shareholders.
I wonder if 30 million shares will alter the price much, it has a pretty high ADV.

[Beeblebrox]

Any speculation on what Siri will top out at if xm and siri merge or when this might occur???

[InvestingMoron]

On Feb 30th SIRI will be around $5 :)

[InvestingMoron]

Ugh...I sold this morning @ 3.75 for an ok gain....then it goes up another .20

Figures!

[Kevin Wong]

Ugh...I sold this morning @ 3.75 for an ok gain....then it goes up another .20

Figures!

I also sold at 3.75....to buy some DRL when it was 2.12. I was pissed when Scottrade told me I've have to wait as the funds were unsettled. So now, I feel like I lost on what would have a been a nice run in SIRI and a really nice jump in DRL. Oh well...I think I'm going to more of my trades through TD Ameritrade again.

[zyzzyva57]

Home Gamers, here is a site worth scanning often if Sirius and XM radio is your game:
http://satellitestandard.blogspot.com/

[ProEdgeBiker]

Rumors that they were announcing about some merger today at the Electronics Show in Vegas.-Howard Stern Show

[InvestingMoron]

I think it's just that, a rumor. For now.

[Empire]

http://www.orbitcast.com/archives/xmsirius-merger-plans-to-be-announced-today.html

[ProEdgeBiker]

http://www.orbitcast.com/archives/xmsirius-merger-plans-to-be-announced-today.html


Did it Happen?

[quanmech]

Nope. The rumors and naysayers are still battling it out.

[quanmech]

SIRI's having a good time swimming in the rumor pool - up to 4.06...

[ProEdgeBiker]

we'll see if it happens this time around.

[zyzzyva57]

Consider this: way back when, when HBO and Showtime started out, they never merged and maybe for the same legal issues as Sirius and XM Radio face today

[quanmech]

UPDATE 1-FCC: rule barring sat radio merger can be changed
Reuters - January 18, 2007 4:27 PM ET

(Adds comments from FCC officials and analyst, background)

By Franklin Paul

NEW YORK, Jan 18 (Reuters) - U.S. Federal Communications Commission Chairman Kevin Martin said on Thursday a rule that bars XM Satellite Radio Holdings Inc. (XMSR) and Sirius Satellite Radio Inc. (SIRI) from merging could be altered, if requested.

Martin, speaking to Reuters on the sidelines of a conference in New York, said he was not aware of any request to change the rule on satellite radio licensing ownership, which currently prohibits one entity from owning both licenses.

"The commission looks at anything that is presented to it (and) all of the commission's rules are open to be changed," Martin said.

He declined to comment on the specifics of any potential satellite radio merger.

Wall Street analysts and investors have speculated about a possible combination of XM and Sirius and their shares have risen sharply in recent weeks.

Both stocks fell on Wednesday, when Martin responded positively to a reporter's question on whether a rule existed that might prohibit a potential deal.

The shares jumped on Martin's comments on Thursday. XM shares, which fell 10 percent on Wednesday, rose 6.5 percent to close at $16.45 on Thursday. Sirius, which fell 7 percent yesterday, rose 4.9 percent to close at $4.05.

XM, bolstered by channels featuring Oprah Winfrey and Major League Baseball, leads the nascent pay-radio market, ahead of Sirius, which boasts shock jock Howard Stern and professional football.

Martin said on Thursday that no rule is set in stone, but first there has to be a reason to revisit a policy.

"We have rules that Congress requires us periodically to review," he said. "This particular rule, we are under no obligation to review at this particular time. Someone would have to say (to the FCC) 'look at this rule.'"

Fellow Republican FCC Commissioner Robert McDowell said he and his aides were looking into any precedents for changing the agency's rules.

"It's intriguing," he told reporters after a Federal Communications Bar Association luncheon in Washington. "We're looking at that right now."

Speculation over a deal has rippled through the market for months. Neither XM nor Sirius have said they are pursuing a deal, but neither has ruled it out.

Analysts opinion also vary, with some saying slowing satellite radio growth is an incentive for a larger, more cost efficient provider that can compete with other entertainment options, like iPods and video games.

Others suggest that competition, not combination, is the best way to spur growth.

"We would view a merger as a material risk to their business models," said Janco Partners analyst April Horace. "We also think consumers could put off making a decision about satellite radio due to the potential merger." (Additional reporting by Jeremy Pelofsky and Karey Wutkowski in Washington)


It's certainly a fun game to watch.

[InvestingMoron]

SatRads are slowly creeping down. However, I have been paying considerably more attention to the two since the year has started.

XMSR does not like to go under 15. Usually when it does, it hits 14.50 and bounces back quite nicely. Today it closed around 14.70 so I'm looking for the dip then short-term small bounce about 4-5%.

I have no position in XMSR or SIRI.

[InvestingMoron]

Not a bad call on XMSR so far, let's see how the rest of the day goes. I'm still not in this or SIRI.

[ProEdgeBiker]

so will it happen now???