Official DOW and other major Indexe's Thread

[OptionsPlease]

Hello Guys I would like to break out the Official Indexes thread on the DOW and other major components to see how the market will move. As we know we can post charts and comment on the direction we think the DOW and other indexes will move the next day. :welcome:)

Very Very Bullish for Wednesday.....I can see us touching 8500 and if we break we will break are sluggish resistance and go into a Bull rally....:proud:


http://img211.imageshack.us/img211/139/dowwza5.png (http://imageshack.us)
http://img211.imageshack.us/img211/dowwza5.png/1/w620.png (http://g.imageshack.us/img211/dowwza5.png/1/)

[jacobnbr1]

The most important signal is right there in your indickatehers...

Otay!

I will give you a rally based on what you have outlined.

She will be a real nice tradeable rally too.

SORRY! I will have to take her back down afterwards though.... :D

[OptionsPlease]

The most important signal is right there in your indickatehers...

Otay!

I will give you a rally based on what you have outlined.

She will be a real nice tradeable rally too.

SORRY! I will have to take her back down afterwards though.... :D


Ok, thank you I will cherish that.LOL:top:

[OptionsPlease]

Futures are down very litte but the chart is strong I see a bounce tomorrow. INDEXVALUECHANGEOPENHIGHLOWTIME DJIA INDEX8,404.00-90.008,483.008,493.008,374.0023:02 S&P 500857.90-8.60865.40865.40853.8023:02 NASDAQ 1001,159.25-14.751,169.001,169.001,156.0022:59 S&P/TSE 60 534.000.50534.50539.10521.9011/18 MEX BOLSA19,320.00-276.0019,500.0019,617.0018,973.0011/18 BOVESPA34,517.00-1,614.0035,000.0036,160.0034,155.0011/18

[Blazer420]

Futures looking down about 100. Think it will be smart to buy at the open today or you think more of a selloff before this rally.

[Bolimomo]

Futures looking down about 100. Think it will be smart to buy at the open today or you think more of a selloff before this rally.

Sorry this is after the fact. Typically: Dow/SP did very well in the last hour yesterday. So this morning's weakness is typically fadable. I would typically wait out the first few minutes, then buy in on it. I didn't trade futures this morning but was shorting SKF. Effect is about the same.

[OptionsPlease]

Hello Guys I would like to break out the Official Indexes thread on the DOW and other major components to see how the market will move. As we know we can post charts and comment on the direction we think the DOW and other indexes will move the next day. :welcome:)

Very Very Bullish for Wednesday.....I can see us touching 8500 and if we break we will break are sluggish resistance and go into a Bull rally....:proud:






Its not getting enough buying volume to take off when it hits 8500 so its dropping back down that wasn't good maybe it bounce back up later in the day. 8143 is support wont drop below that..

[OptionsPlease]

8143 is a support for the DOW just cant break it seems to be holding up very well to it but after close today Futures better be up a 100 points or else we have a bear trap... As you saw today the DOW hit resistance at 8500 and dropped this means the market it not ready to rally up another indicator we have a bear trap. Lets cross are fingers and hope it turns..

[Wookie]

Well, seems you might have better luck with a crystal ball my friend.

No rally, support blown to heck, and bear trap ? Euuhh....u paying attention to volume ???

Dunno, but sure hope you have a day job. no offense!

Seriously .....:confused2::sheep::confused:

[Gordo]

8143 is a support for the DOW just cant break it seems to be holding up very well to it but after close today Futures better be up a 100 points or else we have a bear trap... As you saw today the DOW hit resistance at 8500 and dropped this means the market it not ready to rally up another indicator we have a bear trap. Lets cross are fingers and hope it turns..

My dad used to say, hope in one hand and poop in the other. I think with all the bad news and uncertainty out there currently, you are overly optimistic in any kind of rally. She's sinking.

[Wookie]

She's sinking.

==========

And about to retest October's ( 7 year lows!) - watch for 7883.

No bullish story there - so much for support at 8143, that vaporized quick enough and without any efforts...it just crashed !

[hotfudge]

I strongly believe the S&P will hold on the 800 level, a lot of fundamental reasons, and some technical reasons also; the highlights

http://futurescafe.com/blog/2008/11/800-to-hold-on-the-sp/ (http://futurescafe.com/blog/2008/11/800-to-hold-on-the-sp/)

- Feeble Hands throw in the towel, and Big Money too
- High VIS
- Perma Bears turn bullish
- Bad news not sounding so bad
- market at 38% retracement from 1900s
- Fear of testing 2002 lows

[TheOracle]

The market put up a fight a few times. But the bull soon left. So now that support is broken. Where is the next level of support?

[OptionsPlease]

The market put up a fight a few times. But the bull soon left. So now that support is broken. Where is the next level of support?


http://img441.imageshack.us/img441/5693/dowwwwvd6.png (http://imageshack.us)
http://img441.imageshack.us/img441/dowwwwvd6.png/1/w620.png (http://g.imageshack.us/img441/dowwwwvd6.png/1/)


It has broken its double bottom if it breaks these two last major supports we have a falling knife and bottom will be much lower... The News just killed the day with worst consumer confidence since the past 68 years along with the BIG 3....:thefinger::x So 7956 is support and if it breaks that 7773 and after that falling knife..

[OptionsPlease]

We need some type of capitulation to happen.........

[Wookie]

I strongly believe the S&P will hold on the 800 level, a lot of fundamental reasons, and some technical reasons also; the highlights

http://futurescafe.com/blog/2008/11/800-to-hold-on-the-sp/ (http://futurescafe.com/blog/2008/11/800-to-hold-on-the-sp/)

- Feeble Hands throw in the towel, and Big Money too
- High VIS
- Perma Bears turn bullish
- Bad news not sounding so bad
- market at 38% retracement from 1900s
- Fear of testing 2002 lows



Some valid arguments I guess. Main issue and as pointed here, capitulation does not seem to be on the horizon.

S&P hitting 768 as a probability raised in your link, frankly scares the heck out of me, and frankly a Bull in nature I shall admit that in recent months the market has sadly made me change religion.

Maybe I am bias but in reading the article in your link, I am left with the impression that it is a nice hope statement,some of the technical hypothesis/remarks are certainly valid in my opinion, but just the same - sadly I did not come out of that reading with a very bullish thought frankly.

Dunno, sadly I am not very optimistic.

[OptionsPlease]

Sorry my friends it held up to support in the morning but broke it later in the day now we have a falling knife we need some sort of capitulation to form to cause a new support..

[Wookie]

Falling knife in more ways then one I am afraid.....

Dow: 7773 busted like hot knife through butter - now riding 7616 as I type

S&P: As I was afraid 768 never held ....straight through and now riding 758

VIX: @ 79

Darn ugly and darn painful.

[OptionsPlease]

7565 but the capitulation was weak might break....

[Wookie]

Dow volume is 2 x it's 10 Day Average - dunno if it is enough to call it capitulation. let alone where it goes from here.

I am very pessimistic, and frankly with Option Expiration tomorrow - one has to wonder where it goes from here?

VIX@ 81.

And icing on the cake C, broke under $5 and closed @ $4.67 on nearly 4 times daily volume hence 720 Million + shares traded.

Watch for funds to jump on the bandwagon of selling if this fails to climb back above $5.00 and stay there.

This is preparing for an FDIC phone call on the weekend and Paulson and company having a chitchat with Pundit!

Ugly simply ugly......

[OptionsPlease]

Hedge fund investors can withdraw their money only once a year, and Nov. 15 is the day. Fund managers say requests to get out are unusually high this time. Sally Herships reports on what that could mean.
I could see a capitulation form tomorrow once the customers are out of their hedge fund and rally up...

[OptionsPlease]

http://img523.imageshack.us/img523/3600/dowdropws3.png (http://imageshack.us)
http://img523.imageshack.us/img523/dowdropws3.png/1/w620.png (http://g.imageshack.us/img523/dowdropws3.png/1/)

[Wookie]

This is what I am referring to:

"Most institutional investors and pension funds are barred from owning stocks below $5. So if Citigroup's stock maintains below that level--it briefly dropped under $5 during Thursday trading--it could trigger a wave of selling that would send the share price even lower.

"That's the danger of crossing that $5 threshold," says Owen Malcolm, senior vice president of Sanders Financial Management in Atlanta. "They're (Citigroup) already in trouble. It could get worse."

[OptionsPlease]

This is what I am referring to:


Wookie check this more regulation on old hedge funds...

http://www.onlinetradersforum.com/showthread.php?p=167166#post167166

[Wookie]

Thank you for sharing, old thought coming back. Can't hurt.

But since we are on the topic of regulation, it is simply beyond comprehension that so many people including recently the CEO of the NYSE, asking for the uptick rule to be brought back, and yet no one in the Administration is even touching on that subject, let alone bringing it back!

So honestly, is there actually a willingness to put in place regulation and legislation to stop greedy and powerful people from making more and more money at the expanse of the little people?

Only thing they are doing and will always do when caught with their hand in the cookie jar, is to put a dog and pony show, come up with rules and legislation that can easily be circumvent by the all powerful, but yet looks good on the surface.

Nothing will change, will take 10 years to get back on our feet and in 15 we will crash again and Oh look at that we forgot about plugging this loophole! dotcom, Alt.A mortgages, Savings and Loans, what will it be next? - don't worry they'll come up with something.....

Fun and games for the almighty, while the little people see their life savings disappear.

[OptionsPlease]

I agree the up tick rule should come back to regulate some of these shorts on Financial sector it was eliminated July 6, 2007. This Treasury needs to invest heavily in the bond market to free up prices also. Obama needs to come on air and say he is putting off capital gains tax along with his universal health care plan he wants to get done in his first term which would raise income taxes higher than anything we have seen before. Universal health care would cost 365 billion a year about 3 Iraq wars which are 10 billion a month a piece. Not to mention 65 million would loose their insurance premiums.

Yes from what I have heard cash to earnings is not even getting priced in for the stocks and names like X United States Steel Corporation should be much higher.... ATVI has 3 billion in cash no debt. This is not bad for everyone.

[OptionsPlease]

Iraq has a surplus of 75 billion and 25 billion of that is set aside for infrastructure. 10 billion of that money has already been used these numbers are all listed on government website. Obama wants to get out even though we have returned more than half the Providences back to the people and the surge has worked. THIS MAN AMERICA VOTED INTO OFFICE IS GOING TO FAIL THE AMERICAN PEOPLE..They are rich in oil their GDP is only 100 billion but there is enough resources to build that country back up into a democracy in the Middle East. NO we need to get out and raise taxes....Those middle class tax cuts he promises are just A LIEEEEEE.

[Wookie]

I'm not an American, hence some of what you are referring to I am frankly not familiar with in terms of it's impact. ie: Loss of Insurance premium and what not. As for who the next leader of your country is, I will admit that at this end Obama sounded like the right choice - mind you I shall admit that deep into the details of his promises and plans, I have not honestly dig into.

In my view sadly, the McCain campaign sadly was always oriented towards bashing the other candidates and not much more frankly - so, often perception is reality.

Besides, the thought of a Bush numero 2 or from the same party was in my view frankly scary, but not my place nor business to comment on obviously.

[Wookie]

Here is something for you to look at, maybe you can do the same chart and see if you come up with the same results and possible comments.

http://www.tradersnarrative.com/massive-ominous-double-top-formation-2080.html

Short version, some perma-bears are forecasting S&P at 100 based on that chart.....you heard me right ...100.

I shall admit that I do not understand how they can derive 100 ....measured move they say ???

S&P @ 100, I go buy a rope, I already have a chair with a broken leg !

[Bolimomo]

Short version, some perma-bears are forecasting S&P at 100 based on that chart.....you heard me right ...100.

Don't be ridiculous. S&P going to 100?

They will change out all 500 component stocks if necessary way before we reach that point. Perhaps they should put some of those ultrashort ETFs in the index. It will help them look good.

[Wookie]

Don't be ridiculous. S&P going to 100?

They will change out all 500 component stocks if necessary way before we reach that point. Perhaps they should put some of those ultrashort ETFs in the index. It will help them look good.


ETF, yip agree let's start with FXP or SKF among others.

But seriously, I only reported what was brought to my attention, and further now understand the concept of measured move ( found a writing on it) - from a T/A perspective it holds.

From an emotional or psychological perspective, that's an entirely different thing.....

Now where's that chair....(scaryyyyyyyy for frack sake...scary...!):dong:

[Wookie]

Different place and oddly enough similar view.....

Ugly ................

http://www.marketoracle.co.uk/Article7386.html

[OptionsPlease]

We just broke the downtrend at 7600 so up we go until someone caps us.......

[OptionsPlease]

7722 Resistance coming up.........

[Bolimomo]

Where is the firey action? I thought today being the option expiration date the market would be volatile. Morning gap-up, mid morning breaking yesterday's low, bounced back, then quiet....

Maybe in last hour of trading.

[Wookie]

Where is the firey action? I thought today being the option expiration date the market would be volatile. Morning gap-up, mid morning breaking yesterday's low, bounced back, then quiet....

Maybe in last hour of trading.


In my opinion people are exhausted and will take what little profit there is to take before weekend and run.

Hence she closes flat to red , and next week will be extremely boring/slow as many will have taken off for Turkey Time !

========

This end, bought back at 85% profit 1 set of call options I had sold as it was getting to close to strike - otherwise, happy to report safe on 6 series of Call Options I sold, all expiring worthless !


Time to start again next week.....

This pain is far far from over in my opinion.....and as much as I hate to admit it !

[Wookie]

Talk about a swing of thing in the last 30 minutes....as they say it's never finish until the day is finish...

Nice rally ( frankly totally surprised at this end), +494 on the DOW and 47 on S&P.

Cute both riding above the 8's - 8046 and 800.03.

Chinese people should be happy Monday ( Sunday night)....they love 8's !

[OptionsPlease]

What a day yeah everyone decided to get out Nov Puts at the end..LOL well this seems like a good rally I held my SSO DEC calls 100 up on them right now soon to be more.

[Bolimomo]

Talk about a swing of thing in the last 30 minutes....as they say it's never finish until the day is finish...


From my experience, an extreme bearish day (or so it seems) typically trigger some bull action in the last hour. Sometimes in the last 30 minutes. They are procrastinators.

Once the 3:00 pm whistle is blown (bond market closed)... all bull sync'ed to come out.

[Bolimomo]

Once the 3:00 pm whistle is blown (bond market closed)... all bull sync'ed to come out.

Gosh, don't they always time these to come out in the last hour?


Daily Market Commentary for November 21, 2008 from Millennium-Traders.Com (http://www.millennium-traders.com/)

Into the final hour of trading, nice gains were seen across the board as news broke on President Elect Obama cabinet selections appeared to please investors.

[OptionsPlease]

http://img526.imageshack.us/img526/7670/dowamazingzz0.png (http://imageshack.us)
http://img526.imageshack.us/img526/7670/dowamazingzz0.8e581ab509.jpg (http://g.imageshack.us/g.php?h=526&i=dowamazingzz0.png)

[OptionsPlease]

http://img208.imageshack.us/img208/1130/dowus0.png (http://imageshack.us)
http://img208.imageshack.us/img208/dowus0.png/1/w620.png (http://g.imageshack.us/img208/dowus0.png/1/)

[Wookie]

Bull run in recent days - one has to wonder if this is not a Bull Trap!:confused2:

[OptionsPlease]

Bull run in recent days - one has to wonder if this is not a Bull Trap!:confused2:


Looks like we might get a downturn Monday by my technical analysis but if it breaks that then we certainly have a strong long bullish rally coming.

Your thought on my chart reading.....???:Thumbsup:

http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/1308/dow1234dz8.png (http://imageshack.us)
http://img233.imageshack.us/img233/dow1234dz8.png/1/w620.png (http://g.imageshack.us/img233/dow1234dz8.png/1/)

[Bolimomo]

Looking back, we had witnessed a bear trap last week when some of us thought Dow/SP would go way down. We didn't recognize it at that moment, of course. :dong:

The volume on this 5-day rally has been shrinking. I am hoping to see a drop on Monday. I think it will be hard-pressed to see Dow gain another 1000 points next week. But... anything can happen.

I have been buying SKF in the past few days. But every time I bought, it rose a bit and then dropped some more. Market bullish. But like a loaded spring... at some point it will bounce back. The more it is depressed, the more it will bounce back (like on the way up, it stretched to 302 before dropping).

[OptionsPlease]

Bad News expected into the next week.......

On Monday, the Institute for Supply Management will release its manufacturing survey for November. Construction spending figures for October will also be released. BAD

Tuesday will feature U.S. auto sales while Wednesday will bring the November ADP employment survey of the private sector, productivity figures for the third quarter and the ISM's November survey of the service sector of the economy.

Also on Wednesday, the Fed is expected to release its Beige Book of economic conditions, which is "likely to paint an even bleaker picture than the October report," as it captured a near seizure in credit markets "and the resulting knock-out punch to consumers and businesses," said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets.

On Thursday will be weekly jobless claims. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke is also expected to speak on housing at a Fed conference in Washington.

Also on tap, the European Central Bank and the Bank of England are expected on Thursday to make decisions on interest rates.

Friday will bring the jobs report. BMO Capital expects the economy to have shed 350,000 jobs in November, and the unemployment rate to have risen to 6.8%, from 6.5% in October.

[Gordo]

So what strategy should be applied with this info?

I think short large caps.

[OptionsPlease]

So what strategy should be applied with this info?

I think short large caps.

Well Tuesday will be the U.S. Auto sales and I know they will be down big.... I think it will be drop next week.

[psychOnAcycle]

i still cant believe GM is bouncing up on hopes of the govt funding, if that falls through we will see SP500 @600 and DOW @ 6000...as for the news coming out this week most of it has been priced into the market, unless is disapoints more than is priced in...not going to make huge moves on the news. However, I cant imigine the market beeing up this week, the bears are likely to come out with some more room for downward motion than last week...I think we might see oil fall off some more too...OPEC is holding off on cuttin production at least tilll their next meeting in the middle of december.

[Bolimomo]

i still cant believe GM is bouncing up on hopes of the govt funding, if that falls through we will see SP500 @600 and DOW @ 6000...as for the news coming out this week most of it has been priced into the market, unless is disapoints more than is priced in....

As much as the bears have tried. the market seemed to be resilient and determined not to be broken below Dow 7600 or so, and SP 780 or so. The market had tested that level 4 to 5 times. Now Dow is standing at 9000'ish and SP 890'ish.

I think it will be hard for the market to go that low (SP 600, Dow 6000). I think we might be stuck in a trading range for a while. It is the end of the year. Many mutual fund managers may want to hold up this market for window dressing. A -45% performance looks dismal. But sure better than -60%.

I know the media kept talking about not only would GM fail, but so would all the supplier chain and all that. But it is hard for me to believe one single company (or industry) would take down the whole market.

[Blazer420]

futures down 200 this morning. what does every think for today? people will be taking profits all day? any think there is a bear trap building?

[OptionsPlease]

futures down 200 this morning. what does every think for today? people will be taking profits all day? any think there is a bear trap building?


This thing is going to have to make its own bottom. Auto Sales are tomorrow. The Fed talking about just how bad this thing is comes Wednesday.

[OptionsPlease]

Well today it fell like butter through a knife on low selling volume.....I knew that was in store based on charts and news. Today we where officially deemed a recession. Auto Sales are Tomorrow and credit reports Wednesday.....If we break the 8000 which I think we will break the uptrend line and then have another falling knife TOMORROW.3909

[Gordo]

So what strategy should be applied with this info?

I think short large caps.


BGZ up 25%. I didn't play it because my balls are small, but I feel like I'm getting starting to learn the ebb and flow of the market.

[fbm]

BGZ up 25%. I didn't play it because my balls are small, but I feel like I'm getting starting to learn the ebb and flow of the market.

I'm pissed that my order never got filled on this one. It opened a lot higher than my limit and I can't follow the market during the day because of work, I missed out big today. I'm debating whether it's still worth it to buy some for tomorrow it sounds like it's going to be a bad week so I think I might.

[Wookie]

Well today it fell like butter through a knife on low selling volume.....I knew that was in store based on charts and news. Today we where officially deemed a recession. Auto Sales are Tomorrow and credit reports Wednesday.....If we break the 8000 which I think we will break the uptrend line and then have another falling knife TOMORROW.

As I suspected - Bull Trap it was!

Sadly, given the low volume I am seeing in many places, no consolidation nor conviction for that matter.

I suspect we are heading back to retest DOW 7400 before end of this week.

Starting to think that we can kiss Santa's rally goodbye.

Canada TSX , took 900+ Plunge today - largest ever. Government about to be overthrown by the other Political Parties, just what the Canadians wanted, stability and confidence in wonderfull times.:embarassed::dong:

[OptionsPlease]

As I suspected - Bull Trap it was!

Sadly, given the low volume I am seeing in many places, no consolidation nor conviction for that matter.

I suspect we are heading back to retest DOW 7400 before end of this week.

Starting to think that we can kiss Santa's rally goodbye.

Canada TSX , took 900+ Plunge today - largest ever. Government about to be overthrown by the other Political Parties, just what the Canadians wanted, stability and confidence in wonderfull times.:embarassed::dong:


Yeah what a day. Tomorrow I forgot to mention is when the Big 3 also list exactly what they want to spend the 25 billion if they get it. Along with Auto Sales if congress rejects the Big 3 look out for a drop. :cool2:

[Wookie]

Yeah what a day. Tomorrow I forgot to mention is when the Big 3 also list exactly what they want to spend the 25 billion if they get it. Along with Auto Sales if congress rejects the Big 3 look out for a drop. :cool2:


Hong Kong opens 700 points down ...( well my FXP hedge will pay out it seems).

I doubt Congress sends the Car Manufacturers packing - although I think they should.:twisted:

Various opinions floating around on S&P, some suggesting that it will not fall below 750....I am curious to see.

Frankly not sure what to expect this week besides a serious down trend ( once again).

Just cannot see where a BULL signal could come from....short ETFs certainly a good quick flip.

[OptionsPlease]

We didn't break the uptrend line at 8000 yet which would cause this thing to really drop but tomorrow doesn't look good news wise either. I thought we would have a bounce today considering we dropped 670 points yesterday the 2 day average wouldn't look good for another down day.

on Wednesday, the Fed is expected to release its Beige Book of economic conditions, which is "likely to paint an even bleaker picture than the October report," as it captured a near seizure in credit (http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/showthread.php?t=43337&page=1639#) markets "and the resulting knock-out punch to consumers and businesses," said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets (http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/showthread.php?t=43337&page=1639#).


They also said that the banks are starting to slowly lend out more money (http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/showthread.php?t=43337&page=1639#) to you risky people and thank God GE is not cutting its dividend all the way just to meet operating cost. Auto sales where down but that was price in....

Ford makes its plea for 9 billion. They said they will not have liquidity crisis in 2009 and thinks with this 9 billion they could be profitable by 2011.


GM and Chrysler are however shitting in there pants haven't got the whole plan together. GM is the worst out of them I think....


Crude falls again today even though it should be at equilibrium price of 85 a barrel according to 8 economist. OPEC however at their meeting yesterday agreed that oil would satisfy them if it was at 75 a barrel. They made no cuts yesterday because it wouldn't effect anything its all due to consumer confidence in the market and that is why oil prices are so cheap.

[OptionsPlease]

We didn't break the uptrend line at 8000 yet which would cause this thing to really drop but tomorrow doesn't look good news wise either. I thought we would have a bounce today considering we dropped 670 points yesterday the 2 day average wouldn't look good for another down day.

on Wednesday, the Fed is expected to release its Beige Book of economic conditions, which is "likely to paint an even bleaker picture than the October report," as it captured a near seizure in credit (http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/showthread.php?t=43337&page=1639#) markets "and the resulting knock-out punch to consumers and businesses," said Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets (http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/showthread.php?t=43337&page=1639#).


They also said that the banks are starting to slowly lend out more money (http://www.hotstockmarket.com/forums/showthread.php?t=43337&page=1639#) to you risky people and thank God GE is not cutting its dividend all the way just to meet operating cost. Auto sales where down but that was price in....

Ford makes its plea for 9 billion. They said they will not have liquidity crisis in 2009 and thinks with this 9 billion they could be profitable by 2011.


GM and Chrysler are however shitting in there pants haven't got the whole plan together. GM is the worst out of them I think....


Crude falls again today even though it should be at equilibrium price of 85 a barrel according to 8 economist. OPEC however at their meeting yesterday agreed that oil would satisfy them if it was at 75 a barrel. They made no cuts yesterday because it wouldn't effect anything its all due to consumer confidence in the market and that is why oil prices are so cheap.

3917

[Wookie]

Crude falls again today even though it should be at equilibrium price of 85 a barrel according to 8 economist. OPEC however at their meeting yesterday agreed that oil would satisfy them if it was at 75 a barrel. They made no cuts yesterday because it wouldn't effect anything its all due to consumer confidence in the market and that is why oil prices are so cheap.


I am LONG OIL, and in my opinion there is much more to it then can be seen at the surface as it pertains to Opec not cutting at their meeting in Egypt.

When time permits, read through this - I trust it reflects pretty well the general feeling and possible nightmare ahead.

Some will agree that busting OPEC Cartel would be a blessing, I am not 100% sure about that.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/are-we-watching-the-death-of-opec.aspx

[Wookie]

3917


Talk about another crazy day - YOYO all day - RED - GREEN- RED-GREEN , heck if anyone can rely on some form of T/A to gauge this crazy market.

This thing is over reacting and totally irrational, if it was a woman I'd say it was it's time of the month !

Crazy....anyone's guess where this is heading - let's flip a coin !

[aiki14]

I am LONG OIL, and in my opinion there is much more to it then can be seen at the surface as it pertains to Opec not cutting at their meeting in Egypt.

When time permits, read through this - I trust it reflects pretty well the general feeling and possible nightmare ahead.

Some will agree that busting OPEC Cartel would be a blessing, I am not 100% sure about that.

http://articles.moneycentral.msn.com/Investing/JubaksJournal/are-we-watching-the-death-of-opec.aspx

OPEC has been a joke for some time, in that they make "production cuts" and nobody sticks to them but the Saudi's. They are bound to fall of their own weight, we won't have to do anything but slow demand and let them pick at each others sides. The Russians and the Venezuelans will as the article says fall first, as they are the most levered to the high price point.

[Bolimomo]

Talk about another crazy day - YOYO all day - RED - GREEN- RED-GREEN , heck if anyone can rely on some form of T/A to gauge this crazy market.


Technical Analysis works. You may want to look at a higher time-frame (multi-day) and impose the daily pivot numbers in the chart to see the pattern, and not follow the individual bars (1-min, 5-min, 15-min, whatever).

[OptionsPlease]

3920:?

[Gordo]

I am going to short the Dow on Monday.

[Wookie]

I am going to short the Dow on Monday.

Tempting indeed, but keep your eyes on the ball, there is a sucker's rally in the making in my opinion.

So honestly, I am waiting for that to be in full motion before contemplating shorting it all through ETFs.

Thin ice right now, and skating on it scares the heck out of me - Long or Short I am frankly nervous, and already in pain from earlier months.

[carguyindebt]

I am going to short the Dow on Monday.

The key is to leave no money on the table over night. Be flexible in this volatile market and be willing to long or short as the situation called..I personally are Shorting the Dow as well.

[Albert0373]

Just be careful in this market, don't let emotion control your trigger finger. Take your profits if you have them and make things quick.

We're still quite a way from being out of this bear market even though the media might says otherwise.

I exited my long FXI position today..

1. Just plainly taking profits
2. Feeling a bit uneasy about this huge rally now
3. T/A encountering some resistance on FXI's end

[cramerica1972]

dont u mean a recession rally?

[Albert0373]

http://i34.tinypic.com/efmn0i.png

Having a hard time getting thru the 50sma, looks like we'll be giving up some of the gains today.

Anybody think it's going to break through?

Looking at SKF/FAZ for speculative plays...

[blynch]

Is it time to go long SKF again, or is this rally going to continue for awhile?
SFK bouncing off resistance at 105.

[Wookie]

Anybody think it's going to break through?


8935 as I type, if we get the similar push as we have for weeks now in the last 30 minutes. This seems to been heading in the 9100 range.

[psychOnAcycle]

Anyone have any clue which way the market is headed tomorrow, looks like afterhours is slumping a bit. The DOW grazed the 9k mark today and started back lower. I wonder if the market is going to hit its head and bounce back down or linger a bit here. I cant see too much more upside, there is not a lot of good news flying about.

I missed my limit order on SDS by a few pennies I had set at $80...Im not thinking huge decline tomorrow, but I'll be impressed if there is another tip digit upside

[psychOnAcycle]

Anyone have any clue which way the market is headed tomorrow, looks like afterhours is slumping a bit. The DOW grazed the 9k mark today and started back lower. I wonder if the market is going to hit its head and bounce back down or linger a bit here. I cant see too much more upside, there is not a lot of good news flying about.

I missed my limit order on SDS by a few pennies I had set at $80...Im not thinking huge decline tomorrow, but I'll be impressed if there is another trip digit upside

[aiki14]

Anyone have any clue which way the market is headed tomorrow, looks like afterhours is slumping a bit. The DOW grazed the 9k mark today and started back lower. I wonder if the market is going to hit its head and bounce back down or linger a bit here. I cant see too much more upside, there is not a lot of good news flying about.

I missed my limit order on SDS by a few pennies I had set at $80...Im not thinking huge decline tomorrow, but I'll be impressed if there is another tip digit upside

Tuesday is the traditional day to give a little back and with the last 2 weeks price and volume action I would say we're due for a retracement. Still like the chance for a continuation of the uptrend through the holidays and a retest of dow 8000 early in '09.

[Gordo]

Good thing I had to work today which kept me from getting hammered.

[carguyindebt]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xaO3Z4G4Jso&eurl=http://www.crashmarketstocks.com/2008/12/dow-rallies-on-massive-sell-off-could.html&feature=player_embedded

Need I say more ???

[fbm]

That was amazing. haha.

[Wookie]

Need I say more ???


I thought it was his Zimbabwe Pocket change there for a minute !:mrgreen:

[Albert0373]

DOW looking weak...if it falls thru 8750, 8600 looks like the next stop.

[wtf_albino]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xaO3Z4G4Jso&eurl=http://www.crashmarketstocks.com/2008/12/dow-rallies-on-massive-sell-off-could.html&feature=player_embedded

Need I say more ???

:eek2:

[Albert0373]

See if DOW holds the 8600 level here...

Taking a guess, we're falling through..

[Albert0373]

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Recession-to-last-another-cnnm-13797582.html

CFOs saying recession to last to Q4 2009...

Hasn't the tube been saying it's the bottom and telling people to buy? :lol:

[Albert0373]

Bounced and moved back up to 8700

[XOM]

XOM & CVX are accounting for 75% of the DOW's move today. You know what that means? Crude should imho fall back down below $40 once the traders start saying that production cuts confirm lower demand and the price needs to go lower. I've watched these OPEC price control attempts fail again and again after short initial spikes. Even Somalian pirates can't get the traders excited. In short...DOW takes another trip down soon.

[Albert0373]

Descending triangle formed on the 30m 5day.

Will it play out?

http://i33.tinypic.com/2814kl2.png

[XOM]

I wouldn't complain.

[XOM]

Futures drifting slowly downward and SKF slowly rising in AH. Of course a lot can happen between now and 9:30a

[Albert0373]

"Auto rescue bill in peril, opposed by GOP senators"

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Auto-rescue-bill-in-peril-apf-13801512.html

http://i36.tinypic.com/6dwbcp.jpg

[XOM]

SKF closed up $2 in ah trading and the futures continue to remain negatively biased.

[Albert0373]

DOW still not able to break out of its downtrend resistance, look for more downside IMO and another test at 8600.

15min 4-day:
http://i36.tinypic.com/334t5ab.png

[XOM]

It's a karmic slap in the face that the only thing propping up the market is energy, talk about irony, lol.

[Wookie]

DOW still not able to break out of its downtrend resistance, look for more downside IMO and another test at 8600.

15min 4-day:



Good call....:beerglass:

[Albert0373]

Thanks!

If the triangle plays out, 8600 - 300 (height between peak and support level of 8600) = approx ~8300 on the DOW.

DOW at 8545 currently.

[Wookie]

Thanks!

If the triangle plays out, 8600 - 300 (height between peak and support level of 8600) = approx ~8300 on the DOW.

DOW at 8545 currently.


Honestly not sure what I want right now - LOL!

Evenly split between bear and bull positions...only thing that seems to be immune to anything today , is Commodities, so My OIL and Uranium plays are fine.

DOW Green, I guess I prefer - does wonder on my FX bet - ya DOW Green, please turn the chart upside down, or better yet could you kindly crank the Time Travel clock and bring me back 18 months say, June 2007?

(promise I won't tell anyone!)

[Albert0373]

DOW closed on some light support at 8550; as for my guess...we'll see a little bump up and then will most likely fall through that tomorrow afternoon and see 8300 at the next level of support.

[Albert0373]

Futures at 8451 at 4:28 EST

[Albert0373]

8349, wow it's tanking.

I knew it'd drop hard after falling through 8600, but I didn't expect to see 8300 today!

[OptionsPlease]

http://img185.imageshack.us/img185/2576/induim3.png (http://imageshack.us)

[Wookie]

LIVE CNBC......

Get ready for rock and roll tomorrow in the markets.

NO agreement on Auto Rescue Plan - NO GO !

Senator Harry Reid just said, I am far from anxious to see the market in the morning.

[Albert0373]

Dec. 12th, the next stage of the financial crisis will begin.
That's when one of America's biggest businesses, will undoubtedly declare bankruptcy.

-chan

via HSM

[Wookie]

Blaming UAW for not agreeing to give a firm date on pay structure parity with other auto makers ( ie : Toyota like)...

Dunno the name of the Republican Senator who just made that statement , but WoW.....this will be ugly...!

[Albert0373]

I saw this coming, and I got my seatbelt ON bigtime aka FAZ.

Let's rollllllllll.

(Sorry bulls, I don't mean to be such a optimistic bear :lol:)

[none9999]

I saw this coming, and I got my seatbelt ON bigtime aka FAZ.

Let's rollllllllll.

(Sorry bulls, I don't mean to be such a optimistic bear :lol:)

You are gonna have quite a day tomorrow!! Well, you took a calculated risk and deserve it....Sit back and enjoy tomorrow!! :beerglass:

[Bolimomo]

(Sorry bulls, I don't mean to be such a optimistic bear :lol:)
No need to be apologetic.

Bulls make money. Bears make money. (They just don't make money at the same time. :) ) But don't be a Sheep.

[Albert0373]

Reid called the bill's collapse "a loss for the country," adding "I dread looking at Wall Street tomorrow. It's not going to be a pleasant sight."

http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Auto-bailout-talks-collapse-apf-13813530.html

[Wookie]

It's not over until it's over - BUSH sends a blasting warning !

White House warning GOP senators Wall Street bailout funds might be used for automakers now that auto loan package has failed.

Bush officials warned wavering GOP senators that if they didn't support the legislation, the White House will likely be forced to tap the Wall Street bailout to lend them money, two Republican congressional officials told CNN earlier.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/12/11/news/companies/whitehouse_warning/index.htm?postversion=2008121122

[Albert0373]

They'll be tapping the TARP funds and that's not quite what you call...good.

[Wookie]

Agree - I can't see them letting GM collapse, social unrest, riots and worst would entail in my opinion.

Sadly and as stated in the Cnn article, using Tarp probably means no restriction on the use and UAW is off laughing its head of and showing the finger to the Republican side of the Senat!

Honestly they should have gone with the pre arranged bankruptcy thing what ever they call it .....

$14 Billion is going to solve nothing and just enough to take the very same issue and drop it on Obama's laps to deal with in January....

Bah..whats a few billion more wasted here or there, who cares after all ?

[aiki14]

The market sure seems to be taking things awfully well at the moment, Nasdaq is positive. Didn't see that coming.

[Wookie]

The market sure seems to be taking things awfully well at the moment, Nasdaq is positive. Didn't see that coming.

You and I both and many more I suggest.

Frankly crazy market.....gives us more bad news so we can climb !

[Bolimomo]

Spooze went to 830 low overnight. I thought there would be a blood bath this morning. Spooze got a big push up around 9:00 am EST. It was a gap-down all right but not as bad we most of us think. ES back to 870. Glad I didn't sell ES at 840. It was certainly tempting...

[Wookie]

Ok. ok fine rush the markets GREEN - all of them why don't you !

Unbelievable 8 Indexes all Green including Canada - but who in the heck is feeding the US Dollar steroid?

Quit that for frak sake - lets at minimum have some sense of decency and hide the manipulations !

Simply Incredible frankly, talk about a royal farce...:thefinger:

[OptionsPlease]

http://img401.imageshack.us/img401/5555/induhp5.png (http://imageshack.us)
http://img401.imageshack.us/img401/induhp5.png/1/w620.png (http://g.imageshack.us/img401/induhp5.png/1/)

[Bolimomo]

http://img401.imageshack.us/img401/5555/induhp5.png (http://imageshack.us)
http://img401.imageshack.us/img401/induhp5.png/1/w620.png (http://g.imageshack.us/img401/induhp5.png/1/)
I don't think this chart is correct for today. Dow opened at around 8350 something with a big gap down. That's what we've been talking about. It didn't open at 8563 and went to 8347 low.

[Albert0373]

edit: nvm

[XOM]

Bad news on the auto bailout front, the Madoff travesty and oil up to $47 (should be short lived though), end of year write offs looming...and the futures are still green??? Doesn't add up to me and I don't think this stuff is already baked in either.

I think we may see some range bound trading from 884 - 900 S&P, which can be quite profitable, but as Friday approaches the odds seem to favor a decline on the week.

[Albert0373]

DOW sitting right below the 50ma on the daily chart at 8722, let's see if the rate cut will finally push the DOW over it.

[Wookie]

DOW sitting right below the 50ma on the daily chart at 8722, let's see if the rate cut will finally push the DOW over it.

It sure did 8782 as I type, now will it HOLD and try to break the infamous 9100 in coming days ???

You know for this rally ====>:santaclaus::santaclaus::santaclaus:

[Albert0373]

Yep testing resistance here at 8820, FAS is rocking wow.

A move above 8820 should move us up to 8900.

[Albert0373]

Bingo 8900..

Shorts who were betting on a selloff after the rate cut are hurting pretty bad right now.

[Horsefish]

Bingo 8900..

Shorts who were betting on a selloff after the rate cut are hurting pretty bad right now.

I am thinking about buying positions in the short ETF's here. By Friday we may come back to the realization that there aren't any companies that are making money.

[Wookie]

What puzzles me frankly , is why has Financial been up all day ? Heck, GS comes out with sloppy numbers and major loss and last time I looked they were up 7 points....

Was hoping to buy some FAS Call Options into January, I guess I am better at looking to FAZ now.

But nervous as I frankly would like to understand who/what was making Financials move this way today....

[Albert0373]

http://i44.tinypic.com/2ng9c8y.png

Crude inverted H&S but if it plays out, look for moves in the range indicated by the box.

[Wookie]

What puzzles me frankly , is why has Financial been up all day ? Heck, GS comes out with sloppy numbers and major loss and last time I looked they were up 7 points....

Was hoping to buy some FAS Call Options into January, I guess I am better at looking to FAZ now.

But nervous as I frankly would like to understand who/what was making Financials move this way today....

Heck with it - bought FAZ Jan Call Option strike $40.00 - volatility has to play out.

[OptionsPlease]

Heck with it - bought FAZ Jan Call Option strike $40.00 - volatility has to play out.
http://img241.imageshack.us/img241/7143/indulz3.png (http://imageshack.us)
http://img241.imageshack.us/img241/indulz3.png/1/w620.png (http://g.imageshack.us/img241/indulz3.png/1/)

[Albert0373]

Heck with it - bought FAZ Jan Call Option strike $40.00 - volatility has to play out.

Careful with those calls on FAZ, I think I'm going to stay away from the 3x ETFs...one wrong move and it'll wipe out your position.

Even though I don't watch him, Cramer just said he believes it'll be another green day tomorrow!

[Bolimomo]

Shorts who were betting on a selloff after the rate cut are hurting pretty bad right now.
Yeah. I did. Got my head handed to me on a pu-pu platter.

Tried to long the rapidly dropping SKF. Tried to catch "the bottom". There is NO BOTTOM. 104 (from 122)... my gosh. It may go back to the previous low of 100 tomorrow morning.

[Albert0373]

Check your PM boli :)

[Wookie]

Careful with those calls on FAZ, I think I'm going to stay away from the 3x ETFs...one wrong move and it'll wipe out your position.

Even though I don't watch him, Cramer just said he believes it'll be another green day tomorrow!


Rats just what I needed Cramer to jinx my position - then again he's the perfect contrarian guide.

First time I am playing the 3x, and took a small position through those Calls, hopefully between now and Jan 16 , I break even at worst, some room to add in order to average if I have to.

Touch wood.

Still would like to know what lit a fire under the Financials today just the same, darn curious that one was - even as an Analyst downgraded most of them by name.

[Wookie]

Yeah. I did. Got my head handed to me on a pu-pu platter.

Tried to long the rapidly dropping SKF. Tried to catch "the bottom". There is NO BOTTOM. 104 (from 122)... my gosh. It may go back to the previous low of 100 tomorrow morning.


SKF was my original plan, but heck if I could figure out where it would land, so I went to FAZ hopefully it plays out.

[psychOnAcycle]

Id like to see this rally top off nicely, no wildly...A nice steady 1-2%up day would be nice. Idont want to see big open dip and late day pop, or vice versa.

It would be nice to see a couple ultras take another +day like URE and UYG (it would be nice to see those break through their month highs)

but heck it would be nice to win billions of dollars too...I gues we'll see how it plays out

[Bolimomo]

but heck it would be nice to win billions of dollars too...
Tell people that you are the CEO of an automotive company. Or a investment bank.

Or start your ponzi scheme. :)

[Bolimomo]

Tried to long the rapidly dropping SKF. Tried to catch "the bottom". There is NO BOTTOM. 104 (from 122)... my gosh. It may go back to the previous low of 100 tomorrow morning.
This morning faded the SKF gap up. Shorted 107 through 109+. It didn't go to 100. But did go to 105 or so. A good quick morning reversal trade.

Dow/SP couldn't hold on to the gain yesterday. I don't see a back-to-back rally euphoria.

[XOM]

$100 SKF = 900+ S&P, that is a screaming buy signal, just look at the charts. The only way this doesn't work is if the bottom is already in...who really believes that? If you do....short SKF or buy puts on it.

[Bolimomo]

SKF did go to $100 today. That made it a double bottom (from a couple of weeks ago). Didn't stay there. Market's rally didn't have teeth... SKF bounced to 106. Made it a very good trading stock.

I short and long SKF all day long for quick intraday trades. I don't really have a bias to trade it one way or the other in any given day (though on a longer term I am bearish on the broad market). I just follow SKF's intraday moves. It is the only I trade for past few weeks.

[OptionsPlease]

3965:sheep::turtle:

[Albert0373]

Sorry, OptionsPlease, not to knock on you but what are those lines supposed to indicate? Crossing lines thru highs and lows...I'm confused on you're trying to point out. A bearish view?

Here's my take:

http://i41.tinypic.com/11gp1te.png

Ascending forming, declining vol, and resistance at the 50ema; A fall thru the uptrending line (support) should give us quite a fall, most likely <8200.

Otherwise, if we break through the 50ema, a run to 10500 looks possible.

[Bolimomo]

That's the thing about technical analysis, like statistics, you can tweak it to how you want to argue... :D

Just for kicks... I say that Dow has CLEARLY broken the downtrend. It is heading UP to >10000 soon! Reversed Head and Shoulder pattern.

3966

[Albert0373]

VIX dropping below support

http://i41.tinypic.com/1zmefif.png

Puts falling on some stocks even when the stock itself is down due to less volatility.

[Bolimomo]

Hmmmm... complacent bulls... That's it! The bottom is GONE... Forever! S&P to be doubled in 2009!!! :p :p :p

[Albert0373]

Oh how I wish it was so..

I wouldn't be surprised if we test 8000 again soon

[Bolimomo]

I think there is a Santa Claus (mutual fund managers) holding up the market through year end - to make their numbers look better. I experienced that in the Christmas of 2007. Market was holding up the bullishness. Not until came January 2008 then the market started to tank. I think in the next week or two, especially that a lot of market participants are absent from trading, drinking egg nog with families, the market would be in a tight range with very low volume. It will really surprise me if the market has a sudden dip in the next couple of weeks.

[Bolimomo]

Wow... the trading volume has dwindled to a crawl today! What the hell am I doing here?

SPY, volume today so far: 125 million
Recent past: typical 400 million+
Scary times: 800 million+

Notes to self: Boli: take a few days off during the Christmas/New-Year holidays. You are a high-speed momentum trader. There is no speed... there is no mementum... Take a day off!

Jan 2 is a Friday. It may not be any better even though it's a new year... most market participants would probably take that day off to complete the whole week.

Maybe see you guys next week...

Coming Monday the market should move one way or another. Go up if the street is optimistic, or revisit old low if there are doubts. I missed Oct/Nov...

[XOM]

My sentiments exactly, at least this stupid santa claus rally should be over by the 5th.

[Horsefish]

LOL you guys have it exactly right. The only people in this market are day traders like us, trading $200 back and forth between ourselves. Sitting here in cash waiting for an opportunity that never comes.

[Bolimomo]

With SKF's low volume, sometimes I felt I was selling the stock to myself! It's scary if you *are* the market! (Like those penny stocks).

Goldie is going on an acceleration up. 80.97! Must be many novice traders shorting the run... only to be squeezed.

[Bolimomo]

Goldie is going on an acceleration up. 80.97! Must be many novice traders shorting the run... only to be squeezed.

Rode the residual momentum at the opening... shorted SKF and longed GS. Chewed on whatever crumps that's left... LOL! Had some good trades to end the year.

Have a Happy New Year everyone!!!

Comes 2009... and I don't know if it will happen on Friday or not, but probably Monday... when the majority of the traders come back to this market, they are likely going to whack the SPY/GS back down to a reasonable level... LOL. I don't think it is too likely to see another big rally next Monday. The odds are more on the downside than up on Monday. We'll see...

[Wookie]

Will it be stopped out at the 9000 range or did it break out of an Ascending Triangle (if this is an ascending triangle) channel and heading to test Resistance at the 9675 level?

http://www.onlinetradersforum.com/%5BIMG%5Dhttp://i40.tinypic.com/2ic0jk3.jpg%5B/IMG%5Dhttp://i40.tinypic.com/2ic0jk3.jpg

Comments - thoughts? Sorry could not figure out how to annotate the chart and paste here....only a guest at StockChart...

[Bolimomo]

Goldie reached almost $88 on Friday! SKF down to the old pivot support low of $100!

Renewed optimism. Obama effect. We have "New Hope". We have a new Savior! He is going to solve all our finance problems and cure cancer!!!!! The honeymoon feeling...

We will see on Monday. GS went from 76 to 88 in 3 sessions or so. I think it is unlikely that on Monday it will jet up another $4. It will be more prone to dropping $4 when traders whack back the prices. But... anything can happen. Never argue with a drunken sailor.

Me think by experience: Monday ( 1/5/08 ) will not be quiet. It will either go way up or way down.

[Wookie]

Goldie reached almost $88 on Friday! SKF down to the old pivot support low of $100!

Renewed optimism. Obama effect. We have "New Hope". We have a new Savior! He is going to solve all our finance problems and cure cancer!!!!! The honeymoon feeling...

We will see on Monday. GS went from 76 to 88 in 3 sessions or so. I think it is unlikely that on Monday it will jet up another $4. It will be more prone to dropping $4 when traders whack back the prices. But... anything can happen. Never argue with a drunken sailor.

Me think by experience: Monday ( 1/5/08 ) will not be quiet. It will either go way up or way down.

Presumably when you say Goldie you are referring to GOLD at $880.00 ?
If so, kindly talk to your Heavenly Contact, for I do need Goldie to hit say $150 ish in 2009 for a start I would be happy. By the same token, while you are speaking with HIM - can you ask HIM to slap the US Dollar, you know like take it to the shed in the back and a royal spanking!

I could use US $ to CDN $ parity for a day or 2, if nothing else to pay my bleeding US Margin Account with fresh CDN dollars ! (ouucchhh ouchh )

[Albert0373]

GS

;)

[Bolimomo]

Presumably when you say Goldie you are referring to GOLD at $880.00 ?

Albert read my mind. My "Goldie" is GS, Goldman Sachs.

[Wookie]

Albert read my mind. My "Goldie" is GS, Goldman Sachs.


Duh, euhh - now that I read your previous post again, sort of obvious it is GS ain't it ? 9 ( Luck would have it that Gold reached nearly $880.00 ($879) hence my assumption Goldie for a loving hug - $88 for short...) Sort of I guess - LOL!

Bah, chuck that one into the language barrier bin , let's say ! :mrgreen:

Bon, pis après ça, a tu eu le temps de parler au Bon Dieu en ce qui a attrait à ma demande? :confused2:

============

Time to bet againts Buffet and his $123.00 per Preferred shares in Goldie and buy PUTs is it ?

If so - care to share a target month and strike price ???

[OptionsPlease]

I haven't posted in while I have been really busy but here is my thoughts on the DOW30.:)

4001

[Wookie]

I haven't posted in while I have been really busy but here is my thoughts on the DOW30.:)



Welcome back and Happy New Year !

DOW 10 000, ummm..dunno.

I guess I am on the pessimistic side of things for the last few months, not really my nature but with the 2008 spanking I still fell my butt burning and a big hole in my Net Worth!

Santa's rally we are experiencing in my opinion, might run into the Obama Fiesta - but I trust DOW will be :banghead: headbutting :banghead: against 9650 and I doubt it will win.

Thou shall see I guess....:beerglass:

[Albert0373]

I haven't posted in while I have been really busy but here is my thoughts on the DOW30.:)

4001

Looks like I'm not the only one confused about your charts...

From another forum where you posted your charts..

And I say this every time I reply to a chart of yours...do you really need 50 indicators? Price action and volume tell the story for me.

http://i44.tinypic.com/28juvx4.png
When looking for trendlines on candlestick charts, you are generally connecting tops/bottoms of entire candles (including wicks) or just the bodies (ignoring wicks). Connecting 2 points does not make a trendline, you need at least 3. This line starts at a low point and then basically slices through candles at random points. Honestly i don't even see a valid second point on here let alone a third.

I was always curious about what you were trying to indicate on your charts :confused2::confused2::confused2:

I know you told me earlier about you drawing trendlines showing the uptrends and downtrends and their breaks...but you're connecting candles all over the place.

[Bolimomo]

We will see on Monday. GS went from 76 to 88 in 3 sessions or so. I think it is unlikely that on Monday it will jet up another $4. It will be more prone to dropping $4 when traders whack back the prices. But... anything can happen. Never argue with a drunken sailor.

Me think by experience: Monday ( 1/5/08 ) will not be quiet. It will either go way up or way down.

Well... I, a trader, am 80% of the time wrong in making prediction. The market has a mind of its own. Today Dow/SP is neither very bullish nor very bearish - given that most market participants came back from holidays... It had a big gap-down, gap-filled, then softened up. Just sat there. 30 minutes ago I thought it would have a break-out (broke day high)... but... no follow-through.

GS shot up to 91... but not without first dropping to 86.00.

Better to just not make any prediction and trade what I see.

[Bolimomo]

One big confusion into the close. An (almost) inside day - just a headfake going up. No break either way. Need to wait another day for indication. (Since today is tight range, tomorrow might be bullish... oh... better not make prediction again...)

[Wookie]

Welcome back and Happy New Year !

DOW 10 000, ummm..dunno.

I guess I am on the pessimistic side of things for the last few months, not really my nature but with the 2008 spanking I still fell my butt burning and a big hole in my Net Worth!

Santa's rally we are experiencing in my opinion, might run into the Obama Fiesta - but I trust DOW will be :banghead: headbutting :banghead: against 9650 and I doubt it will win.

Thou shall see I guess....:beerglass:

I guess we can kiss 10 000 hopes - goodbye - Earnings are not out yet and already we are aiming for the Bottom of the barrel.....now were is that bottom...8370 ?

Then what :idea:

Do we stop there or go deep sea fishing test the cold water :?:

[Albert0373]

Yep, things are not looking good right now.

DOW could not hold above it's resistance level at ~9000 and fell hard.

We have some support here at ~8300, if that's taken out....careful.

[freakscene]

Do we stop there or go deep sea fishing test the cold water :?:

my fear is the incoming administrations tax policies of punishing the most successful Americans, pushes the DOW to the 62% retracement level which is 5,300'ish

50% is 7000

thank you TCG ;)

[Flyboy]

Let it rip...it'll be a great buying opportunity! I have my wish list (and a few shorts) locked and ready:D

[Bolimomo]

4 days of down moves on S&P, almost consecutive. I think if S&P goes any lower today it will bounce off - either early in the morning or late in the afternoon. S&P futures now 864, overnight low of 858...

[OptionsPlease]

I am back and making money again. Wow the DOW30 is taking it hard 6,000 here we come they only good thing I see is the A/D has not hit low level from Nov so it still has a chance to bounce back with a capitulation soon.

http://i42.tinypic.com/s5zpk1.png

[Albert0373]

Are you still without a job?

Why spend money on an unnecessary thing like a stockcharts subscription?

But I hope things have faired out well for you.

[Bolimomo]

Some people are still in denial, that we are not in a bear market, that we will hit a bottom very soon and the market will just bounce right back up. You know... like every investment book says: the stock market will ALWAYS go up in the long-run, right? Only one year of losing half of your portfolio is no concern. It's a great time to buy... stock market will always go up and up and up...

[gsavli]

It will eventually hit a local bottom of some sort. And bounce back. But looking at the charts now and at economy health all over the World, hmmm.. Today's DOW charts looks more and more like DOW's chart in 1929 - 1932.

[Bolimomo]

Only one year of losing half of your portfolio is no concern. It's a great time to buy... stock market will always go up and up and up...

Looks like this week we will see S&P hit 700. Only 15 points away.

[OptionsPlease]

Waiting for more of a pullback on the Dow but a break of the 9653 would be major.

http://i31.tinypic.com/1z15uzn.png