Anyone subscribe to RealMoney.com?

[TonyM]

If so, I'd love to know the content of an article by Jim this am which starts out:

What's Next for Oil Stocks
The amount of disinformation in this oil game is quite extraordinary.

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I thought I was the only one that was noticing how completely conflicting reports on the reasons for crude price movement have been since the end of August.

Jim seems to have been reluctantly warming up to the idea of putting money back in oil stocks, this week could be interesting.

[Will]

If it's cold, we buy energy; if it's warm, we sell it? Could it really be this stupid? I think it might be.

We had a huge run last week in oil stocks, some eclipsing where they were when oil was in the 70s. Some of it was Nigerian terrorist woes, but a lot of it was drawdown fears in natural gas, which were totally related to the weather.

The amount of disinformation in this oil game is quite extraordinary. When it was warm in October, we were being told by people (who supposedly knew) that we were in for a $5 nat gas winter because we could never burn off all the storage.

But then Chesapeake (CHK - commentary - Cramer's Take - Rating), the biggest producer, shut in some supply, we worked off whatever the heck Amaranth was doing, and we are now rising.

To me, this rally needs the commodity to increase to be sustained. I just think the cold-weather thesis can only get us so far.

At this moment, I would be a seller into the strength of the oil stocks and let them come in before buying them. That said, we have found a floor in the stocks, one that held, and the stocks have moved up so much that I have to question whether they will breach the lows of this cycle reached just a few weeks ago.

The bounce has been substantial, I think owing to an understanding of newfound "normalized" earnings power for energy, in light of the unbelievably strong quarters, the few pure plays left out there and a sense that the multiples just got too cheap vs. the long-term prospects.

[Svenwulf]

sounds like what many on this board have been saying for over a month now.

thanks will, good feed!

[Albert0373]

I was gonna post the article for you, not realizing what Will posted was actually not his comment..heh.

[TonyM]

Thanks, sounds like Jim is flustered and doesn't understand why companies such as XOM can eclipse their 52 week high without crude eclipsing it's previous highs.

I could get behind the cold winter theory better if that information wasn't conflicting also; various organazitions have claimed there will be a colder than normal winter and vice - versa. Go figure.

[robvia]

Well, you have to remember that Jim can change his position from one month to the next. A few months ago, he said that ethanol is done and to get out.
His plays are not long term. There's a good site I look at which tracks his picks here
http://www.yourmoneywatch.com/
One month, he'll say a stock is good, then the next he'll sell out, only to buy back in a couple months later saying it will go higher.

[TonyM]

Well, you have to remember that Jim can change his position from one month to the next. A few months ago, he said that ethanol is done and to get out.
His plays are not long term. There's a good site I look at which tracks his picks here
http://www.yourmoneywatch.com/
One month, he'll say a stock is good, then the next he'll sell out, only to buy back in a couple months later saying it will go higher.

The reason I'm interested in when Jim is 100% behind oil stocks again is due to the fact that he called for $56 crude a couple of months back, likely due to his connections with GS whom sold much of their holdings a little at a time through Nov. 1st. I think they will be letting him know when they are buyers again. I think GS had a good idea how much their selloff would affect prices, and I beleive the same should be true when they re-establish their position.

I'm not inclined to buy these oil stocks at their highs, but I will trade them on the dips a couple of dollars off of their highs. When crude starts an uptrend again, then it might be ok to buy at the 52w highs. Just my take on the oil stock plays.