Brain Flatulance on Google

[zyzzyva57]

Tonight (10/24/06), I watched Master Cramer do his nightly riff on Google's greatness

It makes me feel guilty not putting everything possible into Google stock, including selling my soul for a few more kopecs

$500, $600--No, not really! THINK $1,000 A SHARE!! the Master yells

My linoleum floor hurts my butt; my cheap Scotch hurts my guts; my Guru hurts my soul

Why, oh, gawd, am I the only timid "stocker" there is?!

Am I guilty of being a financial wimp?

The Master has his usual great story!

But wait...My Master always has great story why a stock is a buy or sell

My, my Master has the metrics to prove his theory!

But wait, again...My Master always can produce the numbers to prop up his theory

Heck, just tonite on this show, my Master had to wup himself for getting Netflix wrong

Back when he hated it, my Master had the good story and the metrics to hate the stock

Could Master Cramer be wrong?

I remember Tulip Mania (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tulip_mania)

Will in the future there be a story on Google Mania?

If not, then in ten years there will be One World Under Google

Well, let me set my laptop down, get back to my cheap Scotch, and ponder why I cannot be one of the callers thanking my Master for making me lots and lots of money after following him for a month...

My only reward is guilt from not buying Google...

[Svenwulf]

i like the tulip mania reference-

as a fellow Cramer disciple, i can remember not too long ago, he telling us that GOOG, and all high PE stocks like whole foods, starbucks, and hansen needed to get crushed- as they were getting crushed. now he touts GOOG and the other momo plays as stocks everyone needs to own. and sure enough, they continue to rise. if you bought when these stocks were getting crushed, you would be a genius. if you sell these stocks at the forthcoming top, you would also be a genius. as many smart folks line wall street, few people are geniuses. perhaps instead, most folks are just timid. perhaps impatient. but then again charts and Cramer are always right, at least the day after. guilt is prolly as dangerous as love, hate or hope for stocks, imho. but i think you said all of this in your post already. pass that scotch.

[TonyM]

A case can be made either long or short for any stock, the 34% growth for Goog is not guaranteed to occur and it seems that the longs think that the growth is limitless. I don't doubt that there is some upside left in Goog and they look unstoppable and unbeatable, but the rapid growth rate is more likely to slow than increase at some point, I just don't see it as sustainable.

I remember when Msft was a juggernaut and seemed poised to control the world...

[zyzzyva57]

I can remember only a two months back when energy had no top, and I had this same ineffable feeling of guilt of not selling everything I could to get into energy--the Energy Mania :)

Do you remember all those great stories backed up by all the neat metrics he spewed out like a water hose on speed to buy and then buy some more?

Fortunately, long ago, I read about the Tulip Mania and it stuck--de ja vu all over again...

I know it is a cliche, but I swear the older I get the more I see if it sounds too good to be true, then it is

I thoroughly enjoy "Mad Money," but deep down, I know it is all show (a la professional wrestling)

Remember his exec producer came over from the "Jerry Springer Show"

Dah :)

[optimus25]

That's how I feel about retail...strong runup the past 3 months. Cramer is about the MO play. Its easy to look good when the stock he recommends are moving.

[zyzzyva57]

The real problem doing what he does is he gets you in, but you do not know when he pulls the plug, unless a caller asks or you subscribe to one of his many newsletters, which would have to be all of them...If you subscribe to one newsletter, this may not be the one showing the Master is dumping out...It is frustrating...Consequently, I basically enjoy Cramer for his generic insights...

[Svenwulf]

Consequently, I basically enjoy Cramer for his generic insights...

agreed Cramer's true value is in his general observations- as you have often phrased like a "rouge magician." but i would not underestimate his continued ties with G/S. I have little but anecdotal evidence, but a good example is the fall in crude.
i remember not too long ago, as crude sat with a 70 handle, Cramer appearing on the new time slot for stop trading, and calmly stating to Burnett that crude was going to 58. such a wild claim, a thread was even started on this board (thats still getting posted on) for us to discuss the possibility. when i heard it, i had to double check i cleaned my ears that morning, and even posted that i didnt think oil could go under 65. and now with the clarity of hindsight, Cramer offers us (half) the explination- all the speculative money came out of crude. interesting to note the timing of GS commodity index (aprox 100B) trimming gasoline weight from 8.4% to 2.3%- thats about 6B of spec money (in one of possibly many funds) coming out of the primary leader of crude. by no means am i alleging insider information on Cramer's part, and am sure with his many trading restrictions he nor anyone close to him stood to profit significantly from this call. but i continue to watch him, because i feel he acurately incapsulates "street sentiment" even with his fluffier picks.
Disclaimer: as big a Cramer homer as i am, i have a self imposed restriction on any position in "Cramer" stocks.

[zyzzyva57]

Master Cramer did make a strong point on why oil is heading for $56 bbl: hedge funds

The reason you have to tread softly with Cramer's picks is he first and foremost is trying to fill space to separate the ads--this is the cake of the show

No human can possibly pick around 20 stocks per week to be winners

This is why when he is in doubt he covers with the no-brainer Best of Breeds

[robvia]

Good points.
I'd say GOOG is going up too fast, like a balloon that is about to pop. The entire company is based on advertising. Pay for click is dropping, because there is fraud in it. Rings of people spend all day clicking on pages with nothing but ads on them. So why GOOG keeps going up is beyond me, I'd say it's all hype.

I think of Cramer's picks as a shopping list. I pay attention to the feature segments where he explains a stock in detail. He seems to recommnend stocks with good management, and they move. It's tuff to come up with ideas before they happen. He's been thru the cycles so many times, he seems to know what's about to go up.

[zyzzyva57]

I agree with your assessments

I heard Master Cramer or someone talk about the dangers with the Law of Large Numbers, or in this case the Law of Googol (sic) Numbers

If I had the loot to gamble with Google I sure would have a tight Trailing Stop to Sell

I've loved Google from the beginning, by the way, when I told people about Google and they saw it, they thought I was joking--for real!

In truth, I use Google to search, but my main portal is Yahoo...It is sad to see Yahoo blow it, particularly with its large email base to build upon...Why, oh, why, want its board get some Young Turk in to bring Yahoo up to this century?! (Same reason, I guess, Sirius won't buy XM so satellite radio could be a force)--GEEZ!! What am I missing?!