JayIV
10-12-2008, 06:22 PM
Well, if you ask me, 9 out of 10 stocks are a value purchase right now.
I think these are a steal right now. I've listed what I'll be keeping an eye on and why. Please comment, I'd like to know what everyone else thinks.
V- recent self administered survey says CC usage to increase by ~43% or more. A lot of V's revenue is generated by the fees associated with every time one of their cards is swiped. Some are concerned that with the recession looming over head, that consumer spending will decrease. Well, lets be serious, who carries cash anymore? And even so, corporate usage of V' CCs is supposed to increase by about 73% next year IIRC. I would keep an eye on this and judge your own entry, however even at the current price I think it's a steal; it's currently trading below it's IPO price. 11 of 19 analysts covering the stock are maintaining their buy rating while the other 8 maintain a hold. Two recent price cuts on the 12mo price target from Duestch Bank, and Citigroup hurt the stock a little, and any further downgrades or cuts in the price target certainly won't help either, so keep this in mind.
CAT- This one seems like an odd pick, at least to me. With housing nearly at a stand still in the US market, and oil prices in free fall, you would think that CAT will only go down farther. However, I think the opposite. International sales account for almost 60% of CAT' revenue, shielding it from the losses the US market will likely bring. A weakening dollar will most likely help to increase CAT revenue through currency exchange as well. CAT also announced recently a plan to restructure themselves, which I like. This is showing me an active effort to continually better their efforts, and their company. And, regardless of a decrease in share price of 43% from May until now, CAT has stated that their dividend will remain at .42, another reassuring sign.
STP- Wow, well, I think this company is a little gem. Currently trading at a little more than $3 above it's 52/wk low, not that that is an indicator, it's a bargain price. STP recently delved into the solar power financing industry, and they've launched a vast, aggressive plan to triple their US market share. They are exploiting new gov't clean energy mandates all over the world. They produce the worlds second most effecient solar modules at 18%. The Kyoto protocol should make STP and indirect beneficiary as well. Although silicon is in an extreme shortage, there is no doubt in my mind that STP will prevail. There is one analyst who recently initiated coverage who seems to think otherwise, and has gone so far as to say that current estimates are far to enthusiastic, but lets be honest, what does this dude have on the S&P?
KO- Although demand has shifted towards a large preference of healthier drinks, KO is making still making excellent headway. They understand that the demand is shifting towards non carbonated drinks and have made changes accordingly. They have increased their offering of non carbonated beverages, and healthier beverages; They also recently purchased Vitamin Water, which I though was a great move. Once again, although the US is beginning a near certain recession, I think KO will still come out on top. They sell over 400 products in over 200 countries, with over 80% of their operating profit coming from foreign countries. Once again, KO stands to benefit from a weakening dollar.
CMC- Once again, decreasing value of dollar should reduce foreign steel imports in the US, offering a great opportunity to domestic steel. A little more than 40% of CMC profit comes from outside of the US. Furthermore, CMC is a steel recycling company, operating several mini-mills across the US, which they OWN.
I have my eye on a handful of others: GS, MS, AAPL, GOOG, AMZN, BIDU, and JNJ as well as a few more all for various reasons, and rationalizations.
Oh, and I am not saying that NOW is the perfect buy point. I expect to lose a little more before it stabilizes and starts recovering. I'll be keeping an eye on these to judge a good entry, and then I'll be going long on these.
I think these are a steal right now. I've listed what I'll be keeping an eye on and why. Please comment, I'd like to know what everyone else thinks.
V- recent self administered survey says CC usage to increase by ~43% or more. A lot of V's revenue is generated by the fees associated with every time one of their cards is swiped. Some are concerned that with the recession looming over head, that consumer spending will decrease. Well, lets be serious, who carries cash anymore? And even so, corporate usage of V' CCs is supposed to increase by about 73% next year IIRC. I would keep an eye on this and judge your own entry, however even at the current price I think it's a steal; it's currently trading below it's IPO price. 11 of 19 analysts covering the stock are maintaining their buy rating while the other 8 maintain a hold. Two recent price cuts on the 12mo price target from Duestch Bank, and Citigroup hurt the stock a little, and any further downgrades or cuts in the price target certainly won't help either, so keep this in mind.
CAT- This one seems like an odd pick, at least to me. With housing nearly at a stand still in the US market, and oil prices in free fall, you would think that CAT will only go down farther. However, I think the opposite. International sales account for almost 60% of CAT' revenue, shielding it from the losses the US market will likely bring. A weakening dollar will most likely help to increase CAT revenue through currency exchange as well. CAT also announced recently a plan to restructure themselves, which I like. This is showing me an active effort to continually better their efforts, and their company. And, regardless of a decrease in share price of 43% from May until now, CAT has stated that their dividend will remain at .42, another reassuring sign.
STP- Wow, well, I think this company is a little gem. Currently trading at a little more than $3 above it's 52/wk low, not that that is an indicator, it's a bargain price. STP recently delved into the solar power financing industry, and they've launched a vast, aggressive plan to triple their US market share. They are exploiting new gov't clean energy mandates all over the world. They produce the worlds second most effecient solar modules at 18%. The Kyoto protocol should make STP and indirect beneficiary as well. Although silicon is in an extreme shortage, there is no doubt in my mind that STP will prevail. There is one analyst who recently initiated coverage who seems to think otherwise, and has gone so far as to say that current estimates are far to enthusiastic, but lets be honest, what does this dude have on the S&P?
KO- Although demand has shifted towards a large preference of healthier drinks, KO is making still making excellent headway. They understand that the demand is shifting towards non carbonated drinks and have made changes accordingly. They have increased their offering of non carbonated beverages, and healthier beverages; They also recently purchased Vitamin Water, which I though was a great move. Once again, although the US is beginning a near certain recession, I think KO will still come out on top. They sell over 400 products in over 200 countries, with over 80% of their operating profit coming from foreign countries. Once again, KO stands to benefit from a weakening dollar.
CMC- Once again, decreasing value of dollar should reduce foreign steel imports in the US, offering a great opportunity to domestic steel. A little more than 40% of CMC profit comes from outside of the US. Furthermore, CMC is a steel recycling company, operating several mini-mills across the US, which they OWN.
I have my eye on a handful of others: GS, MS, AAPL, GOOG, AMZN, BIDU, and JNJ as well as a few more all for various reasons, and rationalizations.
Oh, and I am not saying that NOW is the perfect buy point. I expect to lose a little more before it stabilizes and starts recovering. I'll be keeping an eye on these to judge a good entry, and then I'll be going long on these.