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View Full Version : TLT: make money off the overbought bond market...

aaronchall
10-09-2008, 02:25 AM
I think a good short term play is to take a short position on TLT (the Lehman 20+ treasury ETF). You could short it, or buy the double inverse, TBT. Or buy some near the money puts. Watch out for the next Friday expiration. Also, TLT will trend higher on rate cuts, however, I think this will be more than offset by sellers moving into stocks.

Good luck!

Aaron
jrobbins
10-09-2008, 02:36 AM
Very nice call. TBT is the ultrashort for TLT.

Bring on the house of pain for da bonds bagholders! :thefinger:
aaronchall
10-09-2008, 12:31 PM
Very nice call. TBT is the ultrashort for TLT.

Bring on the house of pain for da bonds bagholders! :thefinger:


Indeed, my puts are making money now, but I wish I had bought more yesterday for 50% of what they're at today...
aaronchall
10-09-2008, 05:35 PM
Did any of you follow the price action on this versus the market? The ending selloff barely moved TLT up... so it was down .8% nearly all day. People are getting out, and moving money into the market. They have a strong chance of making a killing now...

Aaron
aaronchall
10-14-2008, 12:31 AM
Did any of you follow the price action on this versus the market? The ending selloff barely moved TLT up... so it was down .8% nearly all day. People are getting out, and moving money into the market. They have a strong chance of making a killing now...

Aaron


I'm not sure I made much sense here. I shouldn't write when I'm about to go to bed... But my puts are continuing to grow in value! I wonder if the bond market will be down a lot tomorrow when they resume trading (they haven't traded since Friday)!

I hope so!

Aaron
Horsefish
10-14-2008, 08:45 AM
aaron: Thanks for the idea. This looks interesting. Should be a good trade between now and the FOMC meeting.
aaronchall
10-14-2008, 01:36 PM
aaron: Thanks for the idea. This looks interesting. Should be a good trade between now and the FOMC meeting.

No problem, if I have another stroke of genius, I'll let you know.

:top:
Horsefish
10-15-2008, 03:56 PM
I think a good short term play is to take a short position on TLT (the Lehman 20+ treasury ETF). You could short it, or buy the double inverse, TBT. Or buy some near the money puts. Watch out for the next Friday expiration. Also, TLT will trend higher on rate cuts, however, I think this will be more than offset by sellers moving into stocks.

Good luck!

Aaron

Have you noticed that Rick Santelli has been reporting on the strange actions in the bond/bill auctions? Lots of auctions today and the interest rates are lower/ bond and bill prices up. Shouldn't be that way if the world bank supports are working. Tells me that there are a lot of market participants watching the actions that drive TLT and TBT. I got into TBT today at 62.10. Bond/bill prices are probably going to go down from here.