just how LOW will we go?????

[cramerica1972]

dow 8,000?8O

[Bolimomo]

dow 8,000?8O
Not tomorrow.

[stideas]

somewhere close to 8700... just a hunch

sti

[BuyOnDips]

dow 8,000?8O

That's the million dollar question. My advice is to keep on selling any rallies.

[aaronchall]

That's the million dollar question. My advice is to keep on selling any rallies.

This advice has worked so far, but I'd look up the definition of a short squeeze if I were you. This rubber band is only going to be stretched so far, and the shorts are going to be hurting when the market starts moving up. The natural sellers are going to be out eventually, and when shorters run out of shortable stock, institutional holders will be the only ones holding them, and they won't be selling, so when the shorts buy to cover, those stock prices are going through the roof.

Market makers will have to buy calls to protect their shorts as they sell to those moving to cover, and calls will go through the roof as well...

Just some thoughts...

But I wonder how much of the natural sellers are selling because of leverage pressure? Aggressive managers over-long the market near the top are getting those margin calls, they're having to sell their good protective stuff so they have a chance to make it back on the upswing. Markets go lower, and then they could go even lower on forced selling, but I'm wagering this isn't going to work much longer...

Aaron

[Florida]

Based on the move down over the past week, if we maintain the same pace the S&P will be at zero in 7.3 weeks. (just in time for Christmas)

I don't think we can go into the negative numbers, can we?

[aaronchall]

Based on the move down over the past week, if we maintain the same pace the S&P will be at zero in 7.3 weeks. (just in time for Christmas)

I don't think we can go into the negative numbers, can we?

Excellent point. Nice tongue in cheek.

Aaron

[aiki14]

Based on the move down over the past week, if we maintain the same pace the S&P will be at zero in 7.3 weeks. (just in time for Christmas)

I don't think we can go into the negative numbers, can we?

Got Margin?

[Bolimomo]

I don't think we can go into the negative numbers, can we?

Of course not! Don't be silly. They will change out all 500 stocks that compose the S&P index way before it becomes negative! LOL :p And maybe they can use some Ultrashort EFTs for the index to make it look good.

Some technical bounces, I think there will be. But I don't think the market can squeeze out the shorts like it did in October 2007. I haven't seen the "capitulation" that a lot of people were waiting for. Yesterday the market sort of got close to it. Gapped down, ramped up, back down, ramped up again, but at the end of the day still lost all the lusts and went back to where it started. (And today poking below the yesterday-low.)

[jacobnbr1]

dow 8,000?8O



Using the 30% rule of-course!

I come up wit 5600....


The DJIA had no business above 9.5k anyways, hyperinflated to hell.

[coolio]

I think the market (collectively) is coming to the realization that we are headed for a hard, deep recession (2-3 quarters in length). We will not "touch" a recession anymore but rather have a prolonged one.

I say Dow around 8K perhaps at 7750 or so. There's been too much selling.

Longing for the days of 1-2% drops:(.

[jacobnbr1]

I think the market (collectively) is coming to the realization that we are headed for a hard, deep recession (2-3 quarters in length). We will not "touch" a recession anymore but rather have a prolonged one.

I say Dow around 8K perhaps at 7750 or so. There's been too much selling.

Longing for the days of 1-2% drops:(.


Recession? We are beyond that stage.

We are at the brink of hyperinflation and then,THEN we are set for depression...

[aiki14]

Recession? We are beyond that stage.

We are at the brink of hyperinflation and then,THEN we are set for depression...

We are very vulnerable here, to a prolonged era of tough times. We could be looking at a Japan in the 70's and 80's scenario.

[aaronchall]

Does this mean that we'll have strong stocks with 8% yields in the future?

I wonder if the retiring baby boom generation has something to do with it...

Aaron

[Thierry Martin]

I just added a poll, to add to the panic.

[aiki14]

I just added a poll, to add to the panic.

Nice touch!
I didn't vote cause I have no idea.

[XOM]

S&P500 @800, fails that level and I'm going to buy even more ammo.

[Horsefish]

I just added a poll, to add to the panic.


Thierry!....There is no option to vote higher for those optimists that still exist! How about an option for those that think the actions taken by treasury and the fed will actually have an effect before the end of the year? I vote for DOW $10500. Remember that the economic slaves who are still employed, will (hopefully) make their contributions to IRAs and 401k's and that money will boost the market at the end of the year. That is the money that the major players line up to steal in an effort to make their bonuses at the end of the year. I am optimistic that the professional players will be able to grab that money. Thus, a rally!

[Flyboy]

Ironic that it was a year ago today that the DOW and S&P hit its all time high!

[jacobnbr1]

Thierry!....There is no option to vote higher for those optimists that still exist! How about an option for those that think the actions taken by treasury and the fed will actually have an effect before the end of the year? I vote for DOW $10500. Remember that the economic slaves who are still employed, will (hopefully) make their contributions to IRAs and 401k's and that money will boost the market at the end of the year. That is the money that the major players line up to steal in an effort to make their bonuses at the end of the year. I am optimistic that the professional players will be able to grab that money. Thus, a rally!


Ummmm I can't imagine that you haven't grasped reality yet..

That theory is bunk.

Lift your head from the sand and take a close look at whats going on in the world.

Those ira's and 401k's are going to mean nothing.

[Thierry Martin]

Thierry!....There is no option to vote higher for those optimists that still exist! How about an option for those that think the actions taken by treasury and the fed will actually have an effect before the end of the year? I vote for DOW $10500. Remember that the economic slaves who are still employed, will (hopefully) make their contributions to IRAs and 401k's and that money will boost the market at the end of the year. That is the money that the major players line up to steal in an effort to make their bonuses at the end of the year. I am optimistic that the professional players will be able to grab that money. Thus, a rally!

Well let's just vote to see how low it goes before it starts the climb to new highs. We'll do a new poll after we hit bottom, which should be anytime within the next few years!

I believe it took Japan ten years to recover from their little real estate bubble.

Doesn't mean we can't find some tradable stocks though, even in a bear market.

[Hirsch]

:laugh:

We'll do a new poll after we hit bottom, which should be anytime within the next few years!Ain't that the truth spoken finally? Sadly...

I'm curious, how does everyone think tech stocks will fare in the coming time? They've shown resilience what with the Nasdaq dropping proportionally less than the Dow, but is there any chance people will flock to them again reminiscent of the 1999-2001 time? Or am I misunderstanding something with the current market and how tech works now? Could they shoulder us out of this mess even?

[Bolimomo]

Ironic that it was a year ago today that the DOW and S&P hit its all time high!

That's another example of what they say: Stock prices fall much faster than they rise! Took Dow/S&P 5 years (2002-2007) to get to last year's high. All vanished in one year. (Actually more than half of them in Sept/Oct alone).

[Bolimomo]

Those ira's and 401k's are going to mean nothing.

I agree. This is a GLOBAL credit crunch crisis (tsunami).

[Bolimomo]

I'm curious, how does everyone think tech stocks will fare in the coming time? They've shown resilience what with the Nasdaq dropping proportionally less than the Dow, but is there any chance people will flock to them again reminiscent of the 1999-2001 time? Or am I misunderstanding something with the current market and how tech works now? Could they shoulder us out of this mess even?

But who would be in the tech world to lead us out of this mess? This ain't 95-00. Internet is already a "given" thing. Nobody needs more CSCO stuff to build the network. No more dot-com start-ups. The Netscape internet-browser novalty has worn out. AMZN/EBAY online shopping stuff becoming routine. And we found that buying peach trucks to deliver groceries doesn't work. The PCS/cellular networks are getting saturated - even after a few mergers. Most households who want a computer at home already have three or four.

So what's left? Are we relying on I-phone, Blackberries/Blueberries/Raspberries, Google to lead us run the technology engine?

So what's the next "killer" driver? A mission to Mars? Return to the Moon? Space Tourism? Green technologies perhaps.

[aiki14]

So what's the next "killer" driver? A mission to Mars? Return to the Moon? Space Tourism? Green technologies perhaps.

If you find this out I'll make it worth your while to tell me first.

Seems we need a vision for the country, or the world, that promotes confidence and commerce. A shot of adrenaline for the worlds zeitgeist. I hope it's a worldwide push for Mars, I liked the Apollo program when I was a kid, but we don't have the competition of the soviets as a motivator.

[john_for_u80]

I voted for 5000 in the long run but right now I think we are near the pause and some decent rally!

5000 is just the random guess looking at the slow down and fundamentals and some round number :)

[coolio]

If you find this out I'll make it worth your while to tell me first.

Seems we need a vision for the country, or the world, that promotes confidence and commerce. A shot of adrenaline for the worlds zeitgeist. I hope it's a worldwide push for Mars, I liked the Apollo program when I was a kid, but we don't have the competition of the soviets as a motivator.

Looks like the Dems will make big gains next month. I'm thinking they will push a huge infrastructure public works spending program. Repair our crumbling roads/bridges, hi speed internet for everyone, etc. Besides putting people to work, the improved roads may boost our overall productivity. That may be good if the economy tanks like everyone here forsees. I'm more dubious about the claim that promoting 'green' technology will give us 1million new jobs.

[dochesgriff]

What ever happened to the nano tech boom? Or maybe Boone is on to something with the wind energy thing...because this market blows. ok, bad joke, but we need humor at this point.

I actually went out and got a book on the Great Depression today, now that is depressing. I would like to find a book about the 87 crash as well, any suggestions? I am just looking to study the past and do a little compare/contrast about what got us there and what got us out.

I feel really bad for all the buy and hold people out there. Even now they are told that things will get better and just wait....but what if you don't have 10 years to make up your losses? I have many years to make money, but I stay active and don't close my eyes like the masses. Many of my non-trader friends don't even open their 401k statements due to fear and one said he can't remember his password to look and won't reset it because he can't stand to see it. Amazing.. and he is a banker so there has to be some interest in finance right?

At least gas is lower...I saw 3.14 today here in St. Louis.

[JV_Picker]

I have many years to make money, but I stay active and don't close my eyes like the masses.

I encouraged one of my co-workers to NOT look at her portfolio daily. Every day for the past few weeks there has been a drop (not just for her, but for everyone regardless of company performance), and she freaks out. She'll show me her portfolio tomorrow. She had a pro working in the investment side of one of the nationwide banks assemble the picks in her account, so I'll just add a smidgen of oregano-flavored opinion to the pot.

I find the current market environment thrilling, in a way. Lots of action! Drama! Pathos! (And CNBC is at the center of it all!)

[freakscene]

But who would be in the tech world to lead us out of this mess? This ain't 95-00. Internet is already a "given" thing. Nobody needs more CSCO stuff to build the network. No more dot-com start-ups. The Netscape internet-browser novalty has worn out. AMZN/EBAY online shopping stuff becoming routine. And we found that buying peach trucks to deliver groceries doesn't work. The PCS/cellular networks are getting saturated - even after a few mergers. Most households who want a computer at home already have three or four.

So what's left? Are we relying on I-phone, Blackberries/Blueberries/Raspberries, Google to lead us run the technology engine?

So what's the next "killer" driver? A mission to Mars? Return to the Moon? Space Tourism? Green technologies perhaps.

i wondered the same thing, only said it this way

i wouldnt say overbought

perhaps it can be attributed to technology boom of computers, which impacted just about all aspects of business (things that used to be done manually but not any more) post1980's ?

what will be the next innovation that delivers this kind of boom?

will the market meander along as it did for so many decades prior until that innovation happens?

beats me

horsefish is right, buy and hold over extended periods may not be the best approach for a long while


energy would be my first guess.

[Survivor]

Crash and Burn...$$$...
It's beyond your limited intelligence... :thefinger:
Boone pickens, the greatest transfer of wealth in US history...
1.5 trillion to investment banks, it was Jonny 6 pack working class loser
who thought of overpriced housing and credit defaults.
Borrow 20 grand and buy something- sure got the economy rolling.
You lost your job to China or Mexico, too bad Idiot!
After all they moved jobs and manufacturing overseas...
How about we bust your fuckin' head open with a B,R,I,C,-- country???
Pat Buchannen predicted the Market Crashes by 2010...
He maybe right... :pcguru:

[aaronchall]

nice bit of poetry, is that iambic pentameter?

[Bolimomo]

dow 8,000?8O

Dang. I was saved by only one day. It didn't happen yesterday. But today it did.

[Bolimomo]

Today the market's price action is very unusual. Day trading in this environment is not for the faint of heart. At times I saw the S&P futures jumping 50 points at a time. 50 points!!!

It was a nice gap-down fill. Is this the "capitulation"? I didn't feel it was. S&P/Dow could not hold the bounced high and came back dow to retest opening low.

In the last 30 minutes, maybe the market can do a bullish bounce. Don't know. Anything can happen. If it doesn't bounce... more bad news ahead.

[lynn fishman]

where are the rallies?

[lynn fishman]

Well put!

[aaronchall]

Does the dislocation between the bond markets and the stock market mean that the selling was from forced liquidation from hedge funds and margin accounts? If so, could we see a strong bounce upward Monday?

Aaron

[Bolimomo]

If so, could we see a strong bounce upward Monday?

Aaron

Looks like we did have a strong surge in buying this Monday morning ( 10/13/08 ). SPY came from the low of 85.00 or so last Friday to this morning's 95.00. So that seemed to show last Friday's action was a capitulation.

SPY gapped way up and flat-lined. Personally I don't think we are out of the woods yet. If this flat-line remains, from my experience, look for a sell-off near the end of today. If SPY goes up further tomorrow, that would be shortable.

[Bolimomo]

SPY gapped way up and flat-lined. Personally I don't think we are out of the woods yet. If this flat-line remains, from my experience, look for a sell-off near the end of today. If SPY goes up further tomorrow, that would be shortable.

Dow gapped up +400 this morning. Every gapped up. A sucker's gap because most stocks' prices had been running up strongly since late last Friday. I shorted everything in sight. SPY, GS, AAPL, RIMM, XOM, GOOG at the opening. A text-book gap-N-crap. This afternoon I will look for any recovery. If the market stays without making back to opening gap high, it might get sold off further.

[BuyOnDips]

Dow gapped up +400 this morning. Every gapped up. A sucker's gap because most stocks' prices had been running up strongly since late last Friday. I shorted everything in sight. SPY, GS, AAPL, RIMM, XOM, GOOG at the opening. A text-book gap-N-crap. This afternoon I will look for any recovery. If the market stays without making back to opening gap high, it might get sold off further.

There are lots of hedge funds that still need cash for redemptions. Many will go out of business this year, so they will still be dumping lots of stocks. I think there are lots of good values in the market now, but they still could get a lot cheaper as the year comes to an end. And the pressure to raise cash could continue on hedge funds and mutual funds if the USA economy heads into a deep recession.

http://online.barrons.com/article/SB122186337603558457.html?page=1

http://seekingalpha.com/article/98387-hedge-fund-redemptions-let-the-bloodbath-begin

[BuyOnDips]

I googled "hedge fund selling" in their news search. There were some good stories linked there. Some of the best hedge fund managers are now mostly in cash. They are waiting for things to calm down. I can't blame them. When you see a stock like CHK drop 50% in 2 trading days, you know the market can be very dangerous. Sometimes it's better to wait and play another day.

http://news.google.com/news?q=hedge%20funds%20selling&ie=UTF-8&oe=utf-8&rls=org.mozilla:en-US:official&client=firefox-a&um=1&sa=N&tab=wn

I'm currently at 52% cash. Down around 11% this year. Still holding WWE(love my dividends), INFA, CELG, BEAV(will add more when BA strike is over) and ITWO. Hopefully the ITWO deal goes through with JDAS next month and I'll have more cash available. Looking to buy or trade stocks like ABB, FWLT, FLS, CBI, EGLE, FLR, FCX, SLW, FPL & GILD. This Qtr's earnings season should be very interesting. I'm not sure if you'll be able to trust anyone's forward guidance with any certainty. That does make it much harder to buy and hold stocks. Good luck everybody.

[Bolimomo]

Yahoo Finance page headline: Profit-taking Erases Early Gains.

Dow gapped up +400 at the opening this morning. At times it dropped to almost 9000 for a -700 loss from the opening. In recent standard, that's really considered a crash.

SPY opened at $104+ this morning. I can't stop but wondering: who are the people buying in to this big gap-up? The poor general public perhaps. After a 3-day big run-up leading to this gap, at a +400 opening, how could Dow possibly go up big from there without pulling back?

Well... great for trading.

[Horsefish]

You guys had it right. Last Thursday and Friday morning I managed to conquer my fear and went in with one third of my cash. Bought banks. GS, STT, BAC, MS, Even bought UPS. Sold everything Monday and some this morning. Up about 30%. Now back to cash and do not trust this market enough to step back in. Still have 1/3 of the GS. I do think that Thursday close and Friday morning will see a good old fashioned short squeeze now that the shorting ban has been lifted. Could be good trading days.

[jacobnbr1]

Is this not a sticky because the downside is over?

I think we have one more wave of selling to go yet...

[Bolimomo]

Dow gapped up +400 at the opening this morning. At times it dropped to almost 9000 for a -700 loss from the opening. In recent standard, that's really considered a crash.


Did we just had a stock market crash today? Dow -733 (-7.87%) in a single day. By any measure that would be considered a crash. But maybe we have seen these >-500 point drop so many times that we have become numb?

Again makes me wonder who were the people buying into the Dow +400 gap-up open yesterday? Think that "oh, the worst is over"?

[NEWinv]

Did we just had a stock market crash today? Dow -733 (-7.87%) in a single day. By any measure that would be considered a crash. But maybe we have seen these >-500 point drop so many times that we have become numb?

Again makes me wonder who were the people buying into the Dow +400 gap-up open yesterday? Think that "oh, the worst is over"?


The huge market swings are just a sign of the times. The VIX up 170% this year, breaking all time highs. I agree with you that we may have become numb to a 700+ point swing in either direction-f%^&ing insane.
But i'm loving it...every minute. This is the stuff dreams are made of...fortunes at least.

Maybe more of the people buying into these rallies should be on this site reading about you guys perspective on the market. Surely helped me!

[MaryKay1965]

Maybe more of the people buying into these rallies should be on this site reading about you guys perspective on the market. Surely helped me!

I love it, too. Makes it very easy for profits. I simply pick a sector (oil, emerging markets, consumer goods, houses, etc.) or the entire market (Dow30, S&P 500, NASDAQ) and decide to go either long or short with the corresponding ProShares ETF. Then,when the charts seem to reverse, I sell that particular ETF and buy the inverse.........Just remember the K.I.S.S. motto. (Keep It Simple Stupid)..........Works for me. :biggrin:

[Bolimomo]

High volatility is definitely great for traders like me. October and September are the best months for me this year. It confuses the general public. The stock market (Dow - that's what most people associate with) has bipolar disorders. Oh I am extremely pessimistic (past few weeks). Oh I am extremely optimistic (Friday, Monday, Tuesday open). Oh I am extremely pessimistic (Tuesday close, today). I play the same group of stocks. One minute I long them. Another minute I short them. Depends on which way the wind blows. It's my nature. I am a day-trader. :biggrin:

[uday1583]

Hello...

Though it s very hard to imagine how badly the investors sentiments are hit because of this ongoing credit crisis.. and also the data points that are released on a regular basis which are giving confirmations of the recession fears.. the bottom should be in place close to 7500 levels..

So i feel another 10-15% downside risk still remains.

[Bolimomo]

The intraday swing for Dow was HUGE. 500+ points both ways. 8700 dropped to 8150 or so, reversed back and reached 8600. That's 400+ points each leg! Great to trade the e-mini futures.

And it took only 1.5 hours each way. (Yes you can annualize it. ;-) )

[Bolimomo]

The bulls fought hard today. Pushed the Dow back to +200 or so. Beautiful. Now we have a high/low range.

SPY: 86.50 to 93.55. same day. quite a range!

[boomstra]

snatched up DXD @ 83.. will wait and see how low DOW will go :D

[aaronchall]

I have a friend who thinks we're going to 5800. Since I can't vote for him, I thought I'd throw that out there.

I wouldn't mind going short intraday, but overnight... I wouldn't be able to sleep.

[jacobnbr1]

We are still in a valid down trend...

We have support at 7300 but of'course if we test it we will then need to drop lower to a new low to say 5125 (using the 30% rule that is) but i called it above at 53-55 area.

;)

[john_for_u80]

Looking for market to down from Monday. Still need to see lot of huge volume buying/Selling. Never heard many people on CNBC telling that get out of the market.

Want to see panic on CNBC!

[NEWinv]

Are you guys expecting a down day tomorrow?

Next week I can totally see this playing it self out, but with option expiration tomorrow i'm thinking the shorts get sqeezed out. Just an observation I've made over the past few months...

[Bolimomo]

Are you guys expecting a down day tomorrow?


Judging from today's near-close bullishness, it's unlikely that tomorrow would be a down day. If it sells off, it won't be in the morning. Maybe in the late afternoon. Tomorrow open, trade with a bullish bias. If the stock sells off in the first few minutes, I would go in and buy. If it gaps way up, I might look into shorting the opening.

The bulls would probably try to push it to retest Tuesday's opening high. If so, that would form a double top. May break from there, may sell off from there.

[Bolimomo]

I have taken a closer look at the market's action today. (SPY. Dow would be just about the same.) See attached chart.

The recent move: 84.00 low to 105.00 high. This morning the sell off took SPY down to 87.00. Just 3.00 from the low. The Fibo retracement was *almost* 100%, which is bad for bulls. But late morning and afternoon rallies took SPY back up to 94.50 close, which is exactly at the 50% Fibo level.

So... I don't think it will retest the high of 105.00 tomorrow. That would be very extreme. More likely it will stay in range between the 38% and 62%, which is 97.00 and 92.00. I would look to sell the upper range and buy the lower range.

[Bolimomo]

So... I don't think it will retest the high of 105.00 tomorrow. That would be very extreme. More likely it will stay in range between the 38% and 62%, which is 97.00 and 92.00. I would look to sell the upper range and buy the lower range.

Anybody trading SPY today? This was pretty much what it did.

Today's range: low 91.65, high 98.59.

Bearish near the opening. I bought around 92.10 or so.

R1 was right at 97.00. I didn't expact it went so bullish to 98.50+.

So... A triangle is forming. Let's see which way it breaks on Monday...

[boomstra]

do you guys think we will see 7500-7800 before the end of the year?

[Bolimomo]

I can hardly believe it. It has been only a little more than a week. It seems such a life time ago.

Market is finally retesting the low again. S&P at 880 or so. This is the third retest (yesterday was the second retest, first retest last Thursday). If this support level breaks, I think all hell will break loose and the market sharply lower. I am holding my breath...

[john_for_u80]

I can hardly believe it. It has been only a little more than a week. It seems such a life time ago.

Market is finally retesting the low again. S&P at 880 or so. This is the third retest (yesterday was the second retest, first retest last Thursday). If this support level breaks, I think all hell will break loose and the market sharply lower. I am holding my breath...

Don't hold your breath, most likely today we rally then boom and doom in a day or 2.

Lousy volume bottom is impossible!

[jacobnbr1]

Don't hold your breath, most likely today we rally then boom and doom in a day or 2.

Lousy volume bottom is impossible!

I think any rally today will fail!

I didnt free the market to go higher yet :)

I'll let yuns know when i do though... ;)

[BuyOnDips]

Unfortunately, the bottom could be several years away. IMO, housing prices have to fall a lot more. They really haven't corrected yet. When the housing market bottoms, we might finally have our bottom in the stock market. If the government tries to stall foreclosures of houses, the problem will linger and we could have a lost decade like Japan had. Foreclosures are still rising and still haven't peaked.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aR9OGpC4jjao&refer=home

http://seekingalpha.com/article/73552-the-impending-mortgage-crisis

It's a trader's market. I'd sell any rallies. Take profits when you can.

[dmmull]

I love it, too. Makes it very easy for profits. I simply pick a sector (oil, emerging markets, consumer goods, houses, etc.) or the entire market (Dow30, S&P 500, NASDAQ) and decide to go either long or short with the corresponding ProShares ETF. Then,when the charts seem to reverse, I sell that particular ETF and buy the inverse.........Just remember the K.I.S.S. motto. (Keep It Simple Stupid)..........Works for me. :biggrin:
If I understand you, are you saying you are buying both sides of the market? Then you are selling the one with the profit? Or am I wrong? I am just trying to figure out how to profit from this crazy market. Thanks!

[jacobnbr1]

I think any rally today will fail!

I didnt free the market to go higher yet :)

I'll let yuns know when i do though... ;)


Oh dat wasa ssucka punch!!

[Bolimomo]

S&P breaking low now. 865. Breaking... breaking...

Let's see if there is an invisible hand holding it up like it did yesterday near close.

[dchong5342]

6,700

[john_for_u80]

Don't hold your breath, most likely today we rally then boom and doom in a day or 2.

Lousy volume bottom is impossible!


It is much faster than I expected :(

Was not able to track the market and missed lovely trades on U.Shorts!
I am looking for market reverses back to 900 area for next leg down to 760 but I am not sure whether market reverses. Not comfortable to load the U.Shorts right now!

Lets see...

[john_for_u80]

I think any rally today will fail!

I didnt free the market to go higher yet :)

I'll let yuns know when i do though... ;)

Good call. I did thought so but was not comfortable to pull the trigger to buy U.Shorts! Wanted some relief bounce towards 950 area before I load :)

[Bolimomo]

The bargain hunters woudln't let it go. S&P bounced up from 855 to 890.

[jacobnbr1]

It taint ova yet!

too soon to tell yet?

[pedrom727]

I was expecting a slightly bigger rally today, I think we gap higher and go to somewhere around 930-950 before resolving the bearish triangle to the downside. Hard to predict where it will stop but the last long term support level is around 780, with the velocity of the declines we could just see it go right through that like it did on the last leg down. The relatively good news would be that once the selling lets up there'll be potential for an immense bear market rally or reversal, important to note that market never rallied much over 20 S&P pts during the whole 20% leg down so I'd consider that a barometer for estimating a turn.

[jacobnbr1]

Tell the VIX that!

Anybody happen cxatch were the vix has gone in a very short period o time?

When thevix gets high and then my indiactors get screwy spells T>R>O>U>B>L>E.

[john_for_u80]

Tell the VIX that!

Anybody happen cxatch were the vix has gone in a very short period o time?

When thevix gets high and then my indiactors get screwy spells T>R>O>U>B>L>E.

I think tomorrow we blast to the downside.

I am keeping an eye to get into U.Shorts for the final ride to the upside!

SRS and SDS!

[jacobnbr1]

Well I haven't the slightest idea what is gonna happen is what im saying....

Maybe its just a softeware glitch but the vix is back up there again and the dow's not moved very far so be careful shorts and longs..

[timsummit]

its probably going to go lower for another couple of months.

[MaryKay1965]

If I understand you, are you saying you are buying both sides of the market? Then you are selling the one with the profit? Or am I wrong? I am just trying to figure out how to profit from this crazy market. Thanks!

I am buying both sides (Long and Short ETF's) but not at the same time. I will buy the Long Side (DDM), then when the market changes directions, I will sell DDM and buy (DXD) the Short Side or vice versa.

Wash, Rinse, Repeat........Been working for quite a few weeks now.

[jacobnbr1]

Yuns ready for 7300-7600 area?

Buckle em up men cause dis is gonna be a hell o a ride!

[jacobnbr1]

Yuns ready for 7300-7600 area?

Buckle em up men cause dis is gonna be a hell o a ride!

Here let me fix this cause i was looking in the wrong time frame > 6800 thats better!

Don't ya feel better now?

[Bolimomo]

Well it was an "end of the world" opening gap-down. S&P 840. But it held up very well. Almost filled the huge gap. Dow only -300 right now at 8400. I am disappointed!! :biggrin: I thought it would go down much more. Asia/Europe markets were down something like -10%. We are only at -3% to -4%.

[Horsefish]

Well it was an "end of the world" opening gap-down. S&P 840. But it held up very well. Almost filled the huge gap. Dow only -300 right now at 8400. I am disappointed!! :biggrin: I thought it would go down much more. Asia/Europe markets were down something like -10%. We are only at -3% to -4%.

Death by a thousand cuts.

[jacobnbr1]

Well it was an "end of the world" opening gap-down. S&P 840. But it held up very well. Almost filled the huge gap. Dow only -300 right now at 8400. I am disappointed!! :biggrin: I thought it would go down much more. Asia/Europe markets were down something like -10%. We are only at -3% to -4%.

Well... Granted i use a differant method than anybody else on the planet other than a rare 5 people..

That said.. My signals have been saying SELL! SELL! SELL! all freakn day.

[Bolimomo]

SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL....

But the bargain hunters and the long term investors would not let it go. 8O8O8O

[jacobnbr1]

SELL SELL SELL SELL SELL....

But the bargain hunters and the long term investors would not let it go. 8O8O8O

Oh trust me! they gonna let go when they feel da pain enough...

I'd say based on the obv (Indickateher) theys feeling da pain already, maybe not misrable but soon they's gonna be squeeling like pigs to ease the pain...

Foget about all that nonscence and think like a chess game and wonder just what is so bad that is taking the market lower?

[Bolimomo]

I heard one financial analyst commenting on the radio that today's ( 10/24/08 ) market is beyond volatile. It is CHAOTIC!

Yippie ki yay!!!!!! My playground! :mrgreen: I have a time of my life. Not a dull moment today from the start. I saw just lots and lots of trading opportunities intraday. Not easy for beginners though. Easy to get caught in the cross fire.

Bulls and Bears are fighting hard at 11:00 am (Pacific)!!! Looks like the Bulls have the upperhand at the moment. We are near day high and the gap was pretty much filled. Incredible! S&P down -60 at the open and still came back strong.

[kingfisher]

I suspect that the 8200 Dow level could be broken. So far it has held like a Fortress. I was amazed at the trades on XOM at the open, one at 2 mil shares @ the 64 range and then again at the end of the day 1 mil @ the same range. Seems a cordinaed change of funds is occurring. Then theirs the Gov. Funds supporting the down side. Just my observation.

Looks like the Hedge fund guys stayed up late and started the weekend early?

I wonder what they will do next week?

[Gordo]

The hedge fund guys are telling us something.......get out of the market.

I think we break under 8000 and hold for years to come in the 7000 to 8000 range.

[jacobnbr1]

The hedge fund guys are telling us something.......get out of the market.

I think we break under 8000 and hold for years to come in the 7000 to 8000 range.

Well Gordi, I was doing some sshtinkin last night whilst i was zzzzz'n (cause ya'know! im part human also) and i believe that the market will probably rally soon to 9035 maybe 9280 then start a slow fade down to the 84sh level.

Then once da'news of our "New Leader" Is confirmed, Round two wit the second black eye, down hard and fast shedding 1000+ points maybe even breaking the circuit breakers...

Dat would put da ultimate long term da bottom in about 7300 or sumthin like dat...

Then we rally like there is no tomorrow off that low cause it will be da long term bottom.

What a theory huh? strategically plan'd out by yours troooly! :D

[bahroor]

3787

[bahroor]

my guess is we will see strong accumulation around the 7200 - 7300 DJIA support ('02 lows).

[john_for_u80]

New lows are made pre-market but then bulls are pushing it higher. I am hoping that they get run over soon in a day or 2.

Had a good sell at premarket on my overnight holding SDS.

I got in some SDS at low as well today. I am holding it overnight!

Bulls are really irritating these days :)

[john_for_u80]

Love it! Excellent sell off. Sold half. Hope this continues lot more then people think! Bottom pickers will get sucked into the gutters! Be careful to stay long! Still good bet on the short side.

I will add more U.Shorts on pullback tomorrow!

[Bolimomo]

It didn't quite make sense to me.

Last Friday 10/24/08: oversea markets (Asia/Europe) dropped about 10%. The US stock market dropped only 5% at the opening, but closed out at about -2% only.

Today 10/27/08: Japan and Hong Kong stock market dropped 10% again. European markets also dropped significantly. I saw S&P futures went as low as 830 in the middle of the night. But this morning, S&P opened back around 860 or so. During the day it went to as high as 890+.

The US die-hard bargain hunters getting in the way? But S&P futures dropped 30+ points in just the last 10 minutes before closing. Now it's down to the overnight low 830.

[john_for_u80]

Just play the game. Who cares what other markets are doing. Look at the charts and trade. If you are not happy with the moves in US then play with FXP or EEV. You can also play with SRS. These 3 are Wild movers compared to SKF, SDS!

"The US die-hard bargain hunters getting in the way?"

Ones like Warren buffet and his followers (bottom pickers) who are getting crushed!

[pedrom727]

End of the day was horrible today. Wasn't around to see close but I remember checking my phone at 3:45 and we were still positive.... you're still not seeing any record breadth or volume readings, suggestings the constant slow bleed of selling we've grown accustomed to will continue, and the October 10th reversal day looks like it's not going to hold up. We probably have more downside. I'm not gonna touch this market on the long side until we actually start trending higher, I'll gladly miss the first rally after getting destroyed trying to call a bottom based on prior bear market % losses. I've been accumulating on the short side since Friday, looking to realize gains as we make new intraday lows nearing 760-780 on the S&P, if it breaks through that all bets are off as there's a multi-year double top which will be confirmed by break of that level in the S&P.

[Bolimomo]

Just play the game. Who cares what other markets are doing.


The Asian/European/US stock markets usually move in sympathy. A domino effect, sort of. The oversea markets moving up/down would lead the US market moving up/down and vice versa. Usually. But on Friday and today the US stock markets seem to want to buck the global downward pressure... until it blew up in the last 10 minutes.

Tomorrow will interesting to watch.

[john_for_u80]

I will add more U.Shorts on pullback tomorrow!

Was not good to see market gap up but then, I had a chance to add more.


I added 50% position pre-market. Without volume this market is fakeout!

I sold some at around 110. Holding the rest!

[Bolimomo]

The oversea stock markets had big rebounds. Hong Kong Hang Seng Index up 14%!! The US stock market opened gapping up, very bullish. But the rally reversed right at 10:00 am (E). Retested yesterday's low 840 or so... Bounced off. Spring action. Now we have an inside day (pretty much). I am drawing a wedge and trade with the break.

The US market seems to stand on its own and not affected by the oversea markets as much. Perhaps because of its sheer size.

[coolio]

Just play the game. Who cares what other markets are doing. Look at the charts and trade. If you are not happy with the moves in US then play with FXP or EEV. You can also play with SRS. These 3 are Wild movers compared to SKF, SDS!

"The US die-hard bargain hunters getting in the way?"

Ones like Warren buffet and his followers (bottom pickers) who are getting crushed!

I would love to be a day trader in this market...Not!

I would love to be a hedge fund guy in this market...Not!

I would love to be Buffetologist in this market...Yes!

[Bolimomo]

The bulls won the day today. From 2:00 pm - 3:00 pm... S&P went up like there is no tomorrow.

I am singing the bulle bulle song today. Today the US market is more in par with the Asian/European counterparts.

Looks like the bullishness will attract Joe, The Plummer Investor to come to this market and thus I expect the bullishness to continue tomorrow (at least at the opening).

SKF got pushed off a cliff from 185 down to 155.

[aiki14]

The bulls won the day today. From 2:00 pm - 3:00 pm... S&P went up like there is no tomorrow.

I am singing the bulle bulle song today. Today the US market is more in par with the Asian/European counterparts.

Looks like the bullishness will attract Joe, The Plummer Investor to come to this market and thus I expect the bullishness to continue tomorrow (at least at the opening).

SKF got pushed off a cliff from 185 down to 155.

Agreed, and the mutual funds end of quarter, and possible FOMC action along with the other central banks should keep things from getting too crazy to the downside at least as you say, early.

[Bolimomo]

Very orderly volatile day. Ultrashorts are getting killed. No mercy. SKF 146.

Comes tomorrow I will scoop up some at low... SKF and SDS.

[Bolimomo]

Dow up 1000 points? Sure feels like it.

[john_for_u80]

WOW what a day..........If i had no stops, I would have been killed haha
EEV and SRS got killed like crazy.

Still made a good profit :)

I am trading 1 sided. I don;t trade when market goes up!


Would definitely love to load the U.Shorts tomorrow. Lets see.......

[john_for_u80]

I would love to be a day trader in this market...Not!

I would love to be a hedge fund guy in this market...Not!

I would love to be Buffetologist in this market...Yes!



Good for you if you have time like Buffet to sit for yearsss and have tons of cash to live luxurious life like Buffet even if you lose all your money in stock market.

Still I would advise you not to bottom pick like buffet does because you can not announce publicly and no one will buy what you buy!

Let the market makes its turn then you get in.

Even buying the BRK-A/B thinking that this is buffet's stock is pure BS! Buffet is playing market since ages and stocks went used to go up in those era when stock market started and years later. Today is different and many people make more money % wise than Buffet!

If you want to make money in any market (bull/bear) then buy the stock which is in uptrend and oversold intradays(5 - 30 days) and trade.

Stocks in uptrend in this market are only U.Shorts. Take the profits when you get.... otherwise you will be burned like many must have been today!

[aiki14]

I'd be very cautious on the ultrashorts tomorrow, and watch the Fed and other central banks for cues. Also looking for the VIX to continue down as the market rises and the first sign of an up move there will be a good time to make sure your stops are in if you're long the market. I'll bet we see another 3-400 pt's in the dow before a sell off late morning, and then it could very easily run up again.
I am basing that on my belief that any institutional selling is over until monday, and the retail investor is coming in for value plays (as evidenced by the tech and energy sectors today). Of course traders will take the rally down a little at some points during the day, but the retail guy is driving the boat at the moment and the smart money shouldn't want to cut him off at the knees until the beginning of the '09 fiscal year monday.
That all said I did sell off my MS position late in the day, and am still too gun shy for overnight holds in the financials.

[aiki14]

Good for you if you have time like Buffet to sit for yearsss and have tons of cash to live luxurious life like Buffet even if you lose all your money in stock market.

Still I would advise you not to bottom pick like buffet does because you can not announce publicly and no one will buy what you buy!

Let the market makes its turn then you get in.

Even buying the BRK-A/B thinking that this is buffet's stock is pure BS! Buffet is playing market since ages and stocks went used to go up in those era when stock market started and years later. Today is different and many people make more money % wise than Buffet!

If you want to make money in any market (bull/bear) then buy the stock which is in uptrend and oversold intraday and trade.

Stocks in uptrend in this market are only U.Shorts. Take the profits when you get.... otherwise you will be burned like many must have been today!

I think you're wrong. If you went long the market on Buffets call you're up 12.5% in 3 weeks. If your time frame is long you should be adding to your 401k's and the like as much as you can. I still think we could test the lows but I think a bottom is set in at DJIA 8000, and it is well defended.
If you have the time to be in front of your computer and want to be a trader that's a different story, but if you're a typical buy and hold investor and you have been adding your monthly contributions you're likely to look back on these times as the best of your life 10 years from now.

I was around for the tech bubble and the crash of '87 and heard all the same things then, but even in the face of some serious losses, I kept up my contributions. It took a while to recover but the money I contributed during the worst times is the money that has increased the most. A balanced portfolio and sensible allocations is still the best way to do this thing for 99% of folks.

[Bolimomo]

I am trading 1 sided. I don;t trade when market goes up!


A fair and balanced trader needs to play both sides. As good as a politician can talk on both side of his/her mouth. Playing tennis with only forehand can't get very far.

Shorting is my specialty. So when I am bullish I am shorting the shorts! :D

Tomorrow at the opening, if the market comes in a little it would be time for me to long and ride the second up move.

If Dow goes up 900 points again tomorrow then maybe will have the beginning of a bull market. LOL.

[cramerica1972]

A fair and balanced trader needs to play both sides. As good as a politician can talk on both side of his/her mouth. Playing tennis with only forehand can't get very far.

Shorting is my specialty. So when I am bullish I am shorting the shorts! :D

Tomorrow at the opening, if the market comes in a little it would be time for me to long and ride the second up move.

If Dow goes up 900 points again tomorrow then maybe will have the beginning of a bull market. LOL.shorting the shorts? i get you are longing the longs too huh? LOL i believe traders will try to rally the markets for the next 3 days in a bid to help mccain.

[Bolimomo]

Yes shorting the shorts. Not a tongue in cheek. I really do that.

This morning I shorted SKF on the recoil to around 141-142 (yesterdday closed at 137). Bought to cover around 140-140.50. It was a very quick trade. And that's how I make most of my living.

Reason why I short SKF instead of long SPY? Volatility. SKF moves 2 to 3 times more, dollar to dollar, than SPY for the same money (well... more or less same money).

[jacobnbr1]

Well Gordi, I was doing some sshtinkin last night whilst i was zzzzz'n (cause ya'know! im part human also) and i believe that the market will probably rally soon to 9035 maybe 9280 then start a slow fade down to the 84sh level.

Then once da'news of our "New Leader" Is confirmed, Round two wit the second black eye, down hard and fast shedding 1000+ points maybe even breaking the circuit breakers...

Dat would put da ultimate long term da bottom in about 7300 or sumthin like dat...

Then we rally like there is no tomorrow off that low cause it will be da long term bottom.

What a theory huh? strategically plan'd out by yours troooly! :D

Mission accomplished!

[Bolimomo]

Looks like the market is in a tight range. All is waiting for the FOMC announcement on interest rates at 2:15 pm E. I am closing out shop and wait until then to play the volatility.

I think the expectation of a rate cut is built in to yesterday's Dow 900 point up move. I plan to fade any big rally from 2:15.

[pedrom727]

Still not comfortable on the long side of this market (aside from a very fast day trade maybe). We might be forming a triangle to consolidate while we wait for the election before going lower. If we do, however, rally above the recent peak of 985 before consolidating to form the triangle my forecast will be void. Then I'd probably say we have a tradable bottom based largely on RSI divergences in the indexes and a MACD cross, but I wouldn't consider it unless we get strong confirmation.

[NEWinv]

Anyone anticipate a sell off after the feds. rate cut?

After yesterday's bull run I think we give some of it back. Seems like this market isn't doing much today.

[aiki14]

Anyone anticipate a sell off after the feds. rate cut?

After yesterday's bull run I think we give some of it back. Seems like this market isn't doing much today.

Typically the fed was lackluster and merely met the market's expectation, in both the rates and the muted comments attached. I guess I should be glad they didn't hold pat, but they had to know that would be poorly received. The real effect the FOMC can have now is in open market ops not in rates.

[Bolimomo]

I have not seen a market reaction to FOMC interest rate announcement quite like this. It's a dud! I typically see high jagged volatility right after the announcement. Price moves one way followed by a sharp reversal. But, today... SP went down to 825 or so, back to now 840. Kind of like an inside 30-min bar inside another 30-min bar. Wow! I guess the excitement was already spent yesterday.

Now I am waiting for another impulse trigger to trade.

[pedrom727]

Have to detatch oneself from the intraday moves in the market and focus on slightly longer charts. We're seeing a complete crap shoot of ups and downs every day, this is a scary market to day trade when u can be up 200 at 3:45 and then down 100 on the close. Hard to maintain a level head in this environment...

[Bolimomo]

Have to detatch oneself from the intraday moves in the market and focus on slightly longer charts. We're seeing a complete crap shoot of ups and downs every day, this is a scary market to day trade when u can be up 200 at 3:45 and then down 100 on the close. Hard to maintain a level head in this environment...

But that's how traders make a living. We are not investors. We don't buy and hold. We buy and sell. For me: definitely within the same day. Often within the same hour. Sometimes within the same minute.

Does anybody know how much a seat in the New York Stock Exchange costs? These specialists: by their very nature, they are traders at the top of the trader ranks. They don't keep much inventories. They buy and sell to make profits.

I don't know where the market is going to go in the next 6 months. Does anybody? But I usually have a pretty good idea where it will go in the next 6 minutes.

[Bolimomo]

Comes tomorrow I will scoop up some at low... SKF and SDS.

The ultrashorts got beaten up pretty bad today. All day.

SKF at day low of 128, 127. 10 minutes to close. Shot up to 145+ in just 10 minutes (S&P tanked almost 50 points). It was a beautiful move.

[cramerica1972]

THIERRY,THANX FOR PUTTING THE POLL WITH MY THREAD,I DIDNT THINK OF THAT.:beerglass: HAVE a cold one.

[pedrom727]

I've personally found it very hard to manage my risk on intraday trades since it started getting really volatile a few weeks ago. My stops will get executed almost a full percent lower than it was set at during big whipsaws. Also, most indicators that had been working pre-crash are seeming less and less effective for me as of late, the market is trading very differently than it has all year. The late day huge reversals can really spell one's doom when holding a highly leveraged position. I'm more content in averaging into whatever trade I like and working on a slightly longer term (weekly) time frame. That's just my personal comfort level, however, maybe you are better adjusted to trade it intraday but my strategies are just not working as they use to in this environment.

[john_for_u80]

If you went long the market on Buffets call you're up 12.5% in 3 weeks.

Am I missing something? I think market is down since last 3 weeks. How come Buffet's call is up 12.5%?


A fair and balanced trader needs to play both sides. As good as a politician can talk on both side of his/her mouth. Playing tennis with only forehand can't get very far.

Shorting is my specialty. So when I am bullish I am shorting the shorts! :D

Tomorrow at the opening, if the market comes in a little it would be time for me to long and ride the second up move.

If Dow goes up 900 points again tomorrow then maybe will have the beginning of a bull market. LOL.


I mean to say I buy U.Shorts on pullback and make few $s/share no matter market goes up or down!

I am not a full time trader so I don't have time to look at number of stocks. I just watch SPY, SDS, SRS, SKF, SSO.

I had a good accumulation of U.Shorts when S&P was at 975 yesterday. I held U.SHorts overnight but in the morning I lost all my gains of yesterday's final mins sell off. I added more in the morning. No way was S&P ready to rally. Lousy volume rally with overbought S&P is good time to short!

I still think we break to new lows but the ride is not straight down. I am looking to buy U.Shorts on every overbought rally and sell on pops!

Edit: I only hold SDS overnight as downside risk is much less compared to FXP, EEV, SRS!

[aiki14]

Am I missing something? I think market is down since last 3 weeks. How come Buffet's call is up 12.5%?


I actually believe you are missing something but that's not germane to the topic. Low DJIA on 10 oct was below 8k now above 9k equals 12.5% plus.

[john_for_u80]

http://www.cnbc.com/id/15840232?video=913430917&play=1

[Bolimomo]

The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index is up another 5% on Nov 3 local time. Looks like the US markets would probably gap up our Monday morning. But I suspect it will take a lot to push S&P up another 5%. If it does, I think it will be prone to profit taking from the past 3-4 bullish sessions.

[Bolimomo]

The Hong Kong Hang Seng Index is up another 5% on Nov 3 local time. Looks like the US markets would probably gap up our Monday morning. But I suspect it will take a lot to push S&P up another 5%. If it does, I think it will be prone to profit taking from the past 3-4 bullish sessions.

Yesterday Dow dropped ~500 points. I thought today the market would be in range, or bounce up slightly. Sure didn't expect a massive exodus of the bulls! Dow down another ~400 points! SPY dropped from 100 to 90, about 10%, in just 2 days back to back.

Comes tomorrow... I think it will be rare to see the market dropping big 3 days in a row. So tomorrow I will be trading from the long side if the market continues to go down or gap down.

Sure went the hope for some bulls that the recent run up may spark a bullish cycle. The downside is not done yet...

[john_for_u80]

Came across one newsletter which shows lot of charts longer and short term:

S&P, Nasdaq, Dow, Gold, $USD, Silver, Oil

https://www.technicalindicatorindex.com/newsletter/bpdf/TII_Newsletter_953A_11.7.08_7055475115.pdf

[Bolimomo]

https://www.technicalindicatorindex.com/newsletter/bpdf/TII_Newsletter_953A_11.7.08_7055475115.pdf

Thanks for the link, John.

I love seeing people make bold predictions. :D

Attached are the 2 predictions from that newsletter, page 12. The author predicted Dow going to 7500 and S&P going to 500.

It doesn't quite make sense to me. From my experience, the Dow to SPX ratio is roughly 10:1. When Dow was at 14000+, S&P was at 1400-1500. Recently Dow went to 8200 or so, SPX was about 830-850. So for SPX to go to 500 while the Dow only to 7500, I don't think it would be quite right.

Dow and SPX do go hand in hand.

3835

3836


I trade only what I see, not what other people think. :-D I will trade it when we get to it.

[john_for_u80]

Nouriel Roubini: Says 20-25% decline ahead in stock market. Worst is ahead of us!

Also $ will weaken on longer term horizon. I think Buying Gold and Oil on dips will be good for longer term!

Would be nice to see gold near $650 area!


Personally I feel $ is crap. Wonder what will happen when China will have power to speak and lend US money on his own terms!
http://zanesvilletimesrecorder.com/article/20081105/OPINION02/811050334/1014/OPINION


Edit: Good to see market jump. I was in some SSO on Friday. Sold Pre-market! After a long time, I held something on weekend! Wont do that again :)

[Bolimomo]

SPY today is at $86.20 (SPX 858 ). I am glad that I have been trading this week on the short side - the morning on Monday that SPY gapped up because of the China Bail Out plan announcement, but that it didn't hold and broke the morning 30 minute low.

It is now re-visiting this year's low, which is around $85.00 for the third time. Looks like the Obama election "hope for change" factor has worn out, at least for the time being.

If it breaks below this $85.00 (SPX 840-850 or so, not that far away)... all hell will break loose.

[0ICU812]

I put my head to the RR tracks and heard S&P in the 600's coming.

[0ICU812]

Nouriel Roubini: Says 20-25% decline ahead in stock market. Worst is ahead of us!

Also $ will weaken on longer term horizon. I think Buying Gold and Oil on dips will be good for longer term!

Would be nice to see gold near $650 area!


Personally I feel $ is crap. Wonder what will happen when China will have power to speak and lend US money on his own terms!
http://zanesvilletimesrecorder.com/article/20081105/OPINION02/811050334/1014/OPINION


Edit: Good to see market jump. I was in some SSO on Friday. Sold Pre-market! After a long time, I held something on weekend! Wont do that again :)


I like this post and agree. I will buy gold below 700 but put it on at $650 range. There is no doubt that inflation is ahead and shor US$ is a good move.

[john_for_u80]

Not so good morning for me.

Got into SDS in the morning and averaged on the down move...sold at the profit but when I tried to add more from my other account(thinkorswim), I found out that I was restricted to trade. Made 4 day trades by mistake last week.

I have called them, emailed them and requested to give me 1 chance.

They would contact their pension people and then they will decide and get back to me. Hope I get 1 waiver.


Sold my BNI as it got stopped out. BNI goes much lower I think. I am still holding very small SSO.

[Bolimomo]

This morning's price action of S&P was kind of weird. Looks like the bulls are hanging on tight. Gapped up slightly, ran up, then quickly reversed to the down side. Just when you think SP will break down and go, it gyrated wildly back up. (Then down again).

I traded SKF with heavy shares. It had a $10 range. In just 10-15 minutes! Up-down 3 times. Got wiped out. Then made it back.

My thought is still: If the bulls cannot hold the SP 850 area, the bears will take it down deep. We'll see.

[john_for_u80]

I am still holding very small SSO.

Love this rally. I added more SSO near today's pivot. I sold half and holding the rest for Monday I guess.....

[BentleyVTech]

would it be wise to sell on this late day rally? what are others doing? ive regretted in the past few weeks not selling on late day rallys, but this is weird having 2 back to back late day rallys!

[aiki14]

would it be wise to sell on this late day rally? what are others doing? ive regretted in the past few weeks not selling on late day rallys, but this is weird having 2 back to back late day rallys!

I'd sell the rally unless the position is up on very big volume, in which case I might think about reducing and holding some.

[BentleyVTech]

woulda been a good move! dang it, im too slow. I cant keep up with the market every minute at work! thanks for the insight aiki, i will be sure to look at the volume during the next rally.

[Bolimomo]

would it be wise to sell on this late day rally? what are others doing? ive regretted in the past few weeks not selling on late day rallys, but this is weird having 2 back to back late day rallys!

Whatever gain the market had... vaporized in the last hour. Another illustration of stocks fall faster than they rise. Took 2.5 hour to rise, less than 1 hour to fall back.

[aiki14]

Whatever gain the market had... vaporized in the last hour. Another illustration of stocks fall faster than they rise. Took 2.5 hour to rise, less than 1 hour to fall back.

Like climbing up a a cliff and then jumping off. That's why you sell bear market rallies, and it's doubly true on fridays.

[johnshopkinsjr]

We could be bottoming here because divergences have turned positive. We saw the equity only put/call ratio exceed 1.0 the other day which indicates a high level of fear. High levels of fear often mark at least a near term bottom.

[Bolimomo]

I see SPY kept hitting the 85.00 area (fourth time in the past 30 days). Is this really a sign of bottoming?

3865

3866

I kept hearing people asking "are we bottoming yet"? I would say: we are finally bottoming when people no longer ask this question. LOL.

[john_for_u80]

Love this relief move for bears!

wow S&P broke 840. $VIX broke 70!

Edit: Sold some SDS. Holding the rest with stop.

SKF is outperforming all the U.Shorts since past few days because of strong weakness in financials.


Looking for a big rally soon before options expiry. Good that market is getting close to oversold.

[Bolimomo]

SP futures had an overnight low of 830. Bumped back up to 850. I was surprised to see it >860 during regular session. Anyhow... came back down to 840. SPY flirting with 85/84 for so many times now. I think when it breaks, it will be a disaster for the bulls, and will send SKF/SDS skywards.

[Bolimomo]

And for a high-speed scalper... RIMM is dead. AAPL is dead. GS is dead. SKF is the only stock worth trading. :biggrin:

[Florida]

And for a high-speed scalper... RIMM is dead. AAPL is dead. GS is dead. SKF is the only stock worth trading. :biggrin:

I don't follow RIMM or GS, but AAPL is far from dead, 3 trades today, for $2, $1, and $3 respectively

[john_for_u80]

I don't follow RIMM or GS, but AAPL is far from dead, 3 trades today, for $2, $1, and $3 respectively

AAPL barley moved above $3 range. Nice that you could catch the trades on appl which were not worth or too difficult for me :)

Anytime I would love to play U.Shorts. Never tried 3x ones....

[Bolimomo]

I don't follow RIMM or GS, but AAPL is far from dead, 3 trades today, for $2, $1, and $3 respectively

Yes. AAPL moves $3 in 2 hours. If you are on the right side to catch it. It moved from 90 to 87 since 12:00 EST today.

SKF easily moves $3 in 10 minutes. And has a daily range of $20 to $50.

[Bolimomo]

The bulls won the day. (Back)

S&P futures went to 825 (broke overnight low of 830). Then a siren went off calling all the bulls to come out. There... pushed back to 860.

SKF touched $200 and then went nose dive -$18.

Back to the drawing board for tomorrow... She's bearish, She's bearish not. She's bearish, She's bearish not.

(But I plan to scoop up some SDS and SKF tomorrow.)

[blow]

My target is 7000.

[blow]

somewhere close to 8700... just a hunch

sti



How about 7000 this year? We don't see anything coming to change the scenario in one day!

[Bolimomo]

Yesterday ES 825 (SPY 83.00) turned out to be a bear trap. Bounced to 860.

Right now ES is down to 825 again, touching it 3-4 times. SPY 83.00. Is this another bear trap? Or will we break down and slide?

[OptionsPlease]

8143 is a support for the DOW just cant break it seems to be holding up very well to it but after close today Futures better be up a 100 points or else we have a bear trap... As you saw today the DOW hit resistance at 8500 and dropped this means the market it not ready to rally up another indicator we have a bear trap. Lets cross are fingers and hope it turns..

[Bolimomo]

SKF easily moves $3 in 10 minutes. And has a daily range of $20 to $50.
SKF moved up $4 from 205 to 209 in... 2 minutes! (At 2:58 pm EST)

Where can you find this kind of volatility?

[Gordo]

Ponder the Titanic. First she hit an iceberg. Then she took on water. People jumped into the lifeboats in haphazard fashion. The ship started diving nose first. As she tilted ass end towards the heavens, she snapped midships. The rest you can figure out.

[john_for_u80]

Lost decent money today. Was hardly tracking the market and just got in without paying much attention on my 1st trade SKF. Got in @ 212 sold @ 210.5.
SKF went to 205. Was looking to short SKF @ 210 but Thinkorswim had no shares of SKF and SRS!

GS - got in @ 59 and sold @ 58.

Seems like it was a single way move till afternoon, later things were moving sideways and volatile small moves came in.

[Gordo]

Shes tanking. Dow(n) 408 with 8 minutes left.:beerglass:

[Bolimomo]

Lost decent money today. Was hardly tracking the market and just got in without paying much attention on my 1st trade SKF. Got in @ 212 sold @ 210.5.
SKF went to 205. Was looking to short SKF @ 210 but Thinkorswim had no shares of SKF and SRS!

Sorry to hear that John. I did well today with SKF riding it long and short. There were a few moments that SKF came down from high and they looked sure as if SKF has reversed to the down side. Broke previous high of 195, 200... pushed all the way to 216.

A lot is riding on how S&P will do tomorrow for SKF.

One of my accounts is with TradeStation. They reject all my SKF short orders: unable to borrow.

My main trading platform is RealTick via MasterTrader.com. Those guys are great. Work with me to get all the SKF shares I need. But at times like this, they might have difficulties too as everybody and his mother wants to short SKF.

[Bolimomo]

Quote from Briefing.com:


S&P 500, Nasdaq Plummet to 5-Year Lows

4:25p ET November 19, 2008 (Briefing.com)

Wednesday marked an ugly session on Wall Street, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq tumbling to their lowest levels in five years and the Dow dropping to a five-year closing low. Concerns over the fate of U.S. automakers, disappointing economic data, a dour outlook from the Fed and the market's inability to hold its lows fueled the selling interest. The major indices ended the session at their worst levels, in above average volume. The Dow, Nasdaq and S&P 500 fell 5.1%, 6.5% and 6.1%, respectively. ......


5-year low! Glad to see bears crushing the trap this afternoon. :biggrin: Mr. Buffet's team must be extremely busy buying this market. So many stocks, so little... money...

[Bolimomo]

The overnight market: Tokyo/Hong Kong down -5% or so, predictably. I suspected Europe will follow suit.

Comes tomorrow US time 11/20/08, we are probably going to head down some more. Then the bulls probably would step in and hold it up a bit... The cycle repeats.

[jacobnbr1]

Well Gordi, I was doing some sshtinkin last night whilst i was zzzzz'n (cause ya'know! im part human also) and i believe that the market will probably rally soon to 9035 maybe 9280 then start a slow fade down to the 84sh level.

Then once da'news of our "New Leader" Is confirmed, Round two wit the second black eye, down hard and fast shedding 1000+ points maybe even breaking the circuit breakers...

Dat would put da ultimate long term da bottom in about 7300 or sumthin like dat...

Then we rally like there is no tomorrow off that low cause it will be da long term bottom.

What a theory huh? strategically plan'd out by yours troooly! :D

I wasa looking this over that some 'Knuckle Head' wrote as a predickshun and i just got to say somthing.

Looks like we dunn went and did almost everything as me said excepts for the 'sell off' theory.
We got a tad higher than what me thought so we will probably come in at a bounce around 7250-6980 area and we should rally pretty dern well but i'm afraid we will need to continue lower latter on....

We will just have to check it when it happens...

You know what they say? 'The lower they go the lower the will hafta go' and i doan think the bear market ends until 2010 at around 5500 or some chit like dat...

Bolimo: do ya think they bees squeeling like pigs yet?
I think they's feeling the pain really good right here and now and were not dunn yet ;) Bwahahahaha!

[Bolimomo]

I love your accent Jacob! :wink:

If one believes the "Price and Time" projection (it's a Fibonacci projection technique), and look at the chart of SPY... using the recent retracement as the anchor... SPY will go to 55.80 (or SPX about 560).

I don't know how low we will go. But it seems that per "support once broken becomes resistance", SPX will have now a resistance of 830 and we can short the recoils.

3884

[jacobnbr1]

I love your accent Jacob! :wink:

If one believes the "Price and Time" projection (it's a Fibonacci projection technique), and look at the chart of SPY... using the recent retracement as the anchor... SPY will go to 55.80 (or SPX about 560).

I don't know how low we will go. But it seems that per "support once broken becomes resistance", SPX will have now a resistance of 830 and we can short the recoils.

3884

Ifn yur axing me if i use fibs the answer is noda, i use dmi ONLY as my guide.

Given todayz escitement i must comment that the 73sh area of poo wasn't steped in and with that given infomation we probably rally from that 7450 low but to soon come back cause folks can only handle so many glum days before they start getting all getty.

I know, I know, we shoulda just went down yawnder and paid the parking fees to the pawking wars police but they didn't feel that now waza the right time for it....

We gots to keep the down trend alive so we will be back in da future to pay the exstotionant beeeyotch's and to continue to the eggzact numba me said in the 953368427485 post's ive made on da subject. ;)

[simpletradesnet]

Looking at the S&P, I see it dropping from 800 to about 450 before turning for more than a pop. It shows very strong weekly support from the 1994-1995 area and thats where we are headed with a bounce around 600 or 650 but then 450 area.

[Bolimomo]

We have found a bottom! We have found a bottom!!!!!

The S&P went strongly up back to back from Friday to today... Now at 840-850... It is the beginning of a bull market!!!!! :mrgreen: :biggrin: :mrgreen: :biggrin:

Thank you Mr. President ToBe.

[XOM]

We have found a bottom! We have found a bottom!!!!!

The S&P went strongly up back to back from Friday to today... Now at 840-850... It is the beginning of a bull market!!!!! :mrgreen: :biggrin: :mrgreen: :biggrin:

Thank you Mr. President ToBe.

I'd bet on 600 before 1000, wait till those retail sales numbers come in abysmally low after black Friday.

A bull market??? I hope you're being facetious.

[BentleyVTech]

I tend to agree that we arent clear yet.

Friday's rally was because Obama selected a head of the Treasury dept....sure, new guy, new ideas hopefully...but where is the substance in that? It was a rally just because the market was looking for ANYthing good...
I hope he will do well in the treasury department, but just because he was named, doesnt mean its all gravy now! And it doesnt even mean that he will have the solution in the next few months.

Today's rally was due to the gov't bailing Citi out. Didnt we bailout other banks not too long ago? And the stock market still went down after that right? I think its a bad sign that Citi...the world's largest bank by revenues in 2008...had to be bailed out. Nearly 25% of their 400,000 person staff is being laid off?!? Sure its good RIGHT now that the gov't stepped in...but Jesus, what is in store next?

The market has been hit real hard these past months and the bulls are trying to find ANY news to start a rally, but we are going to have to see more action or even RESULTS rather than someone being appointed...or the gov't continuing to bailout companies that have essentially failed at their business.

:confused:

[jacobnbr1]

We have found a bottom! We have found a bottom!!!!!

The S&P went strongly up back to back from Friday to today... Now at 840-850... It is the beginning of a bull market!!!!! :mrgreen: :biggrin: :mrgreen: :biggrin:

Thank you Mr. President ToBe.

Ahem!!! I said i wasa going to rally em but as soon as i's dunn i wasa taking it away from yuns.

We might have found a bottom for the moment but we aint ova yet.

Watch what happens when the vix takes out 44.25

[Bolimomo]

Yes I was only joking.

I lost big today playing a bear. The bulls wiped me out. I want to be a clueless.

Looks like at best we might be stuck in range for a while. The bear power is not strong enough to take the market lower than 740. Shouldn't be too complacent being a bear. Go figure...

[jacobnbr1]

Yes I was only joking.

I lost big today playing a bear. The bulls wiped me out. I want to be a clueless.

Looks like at best we might be stuck in range for a while. The bear power is not strong enough to take the market lower than 740. Shouldn't be too complacent being a bear. Go figure...

Playing bear... today??? :~

Doancha ever lissen to me? ;)

I will splain again what I said a few posts ago in this very thread... I said i would take the djia down to 7350 in which i was 100 points off ( i will work on that ) we actually went to 7450 two times. See... I tried twice to git her down there and i just didn't have enough hp's unda the hood to do it which means > yes.. your correct, we come back. :D

I said we would rally from there but i was gonna take it away from yuns as soon as i gave it to ya ( in which we are close to now )

I could jist spell it out and use good grammer but that wouldn't be me + you guys might fall in love wit me and i doan doo DA'Love thingy...

[Albert0373]

http://i37.tinypic.com/2mx4k1c.png

DOW looking quite weak here on the 60min.

[jacobnbr1]

Yuns couldn't handle the truth even if i told ya...

"looking weak" Naaaawwwww!

Try a bull move to what? 10,500? No way!

Sit back and getscha sum popem korn cause we going there.

Why? cause i ordered a little holiday cheer for yuns guys thats why. ;)

[BentleyVTech]

jakuuub.

Explain why you expect to see it rise 2000 points to 10,500 for us, yuns.

Unless Obama's team reveals their 'plan' in the next few days...I dont see how that kind of rally would happen.

Thanks.

[aiki14]

jakuuub.

Explain why you expect to see it rise 2000 points to 10,500 for us, yuns.

Unless Obama's team reveals their 'plan' in the next few days...I dont see how that kind of rally would happen.

Thanks.

Retested the lows now time for the usual Zappa Rally which we see most decembers running up til the 21st (Franks B'Day)

[jacobnbr1]

jakuuub.

Explain why you expect to see it rise 2000 points to 10,500 for us, yuns.

Unless Obama's team reveals their 'plan' in the next few days...I dont see how that kind of rally would happen.

Thanks.

Ok heres my plan > I am a freakin genious aint i? :D


The charts say thats where we go. As fer all that PR crapola you be spewaging... "Frivolous" ,"meaningless" doan matta...

Machines run the markets and since i'm part machine and part human i can predict what the machine does....

[Bolimomo]

It's a very light volume rally today. I think one factor is a lot of traders are flying/driving to their Thanks-Giving gathering. I might as well close up shop early and cook my turkey... :D