S&P retesting new low 1010, SPY 101.00

[Bolimomo]

Yesterday S&P hit low of 1010 (SPY 101.00) before the final hour brought it up to 1065 (SPY 106.00). This afternoon S&P (SPY) returned to retest the low. This was not a fluke.

I don't see a capitulation high volume associated with bottom spikes. In fact volume-wise, the volume on 9/18/08 was much higher.

Hmmmm.... are we in a recession yet?

[aiki14]

Yesterday S&P hit low of 1010 (SPY 101.00) before the final hour brought it up to 1065 (SPY 106.00). This afternoon S&P (SPY) returned to retest the low. This was not a fluke.

I don't see a capitulation high volume associated with bottom spikes. In fact volume-wise, the volume on 9/18/08 was much higher.

Hmmmm.... are we in a recession yet?

Classic bottom is setting up, if we see more selling in the morning tomorrow followed by a reversal midday on big volume it could set a bottom that could be tradable for months.

[Horsefish]

Classic bottom is setting up, if we see more selling in the morning tomorrow followed by a reversal midday on big volume it could set a bottom that could be tradable for months.

Thankyou! That was the most positive statement I have heard all day. Please see my post here: http://www.onlinetradersforum.com/showthread.php?p=149212#post149212

[john_for_u80]

Yesterday S&P hit low of 1010 (SPY 101.00) before the final hour brought it up to 1065 (SPY 106.00). This afternoon S&P (SPY) returned to retest the low. This was not a fluke.

I don't see a capitulation high volume associated with bottom spikes. In fact volume-wise, the volume on 9/18/08 was much higher.

Hmmmm.... are we in a recession yet?

As I have mentioned in GS post that we go below towards 950 area, I still think we go lower but market did not quite bounce as I thought. It just did yesterday. I expected one more day of bounce but then this market is weird :)

We continue to go lower unless we see very very huge capitulation bottom because this market cannot make a lousy bottom without a strong base and just starts to move higher! We may get oversold bounce for a day or 2 in between but market trends lower!

Many are expecting a bounce but many times market does opposite of what many think!

I did trade with FXP today but sold before Bernanke speech. Made only 4 points on that trade :(

Neither trust me nor the one who is bullish but be careful in what you do with bais on both short term long side and short side!

I never hold anything overnight! I would not be surprised to see market going to touch 2002 lows near 800 area on longer term!

Be careful!

[NEWinv]

Classic bottom is setting up, if we see more selling in the morning tomorrow followed by a reversal midday on big volume it could set a bottom that could be tradable for months.


I'm with you..."let it be...let it be..."

i'm for a little sunshine in these dark days.

[stideas]

The only problem with the market not bottoming is there is too much "hope" for capitulation.

The market will do what it wants to do but not when "you" want it to do... :beerglass:

sti

[Bolimomo]

I agree. This morning SPY's price action seemed to be "orderly" and not chaotic as one typically finds in "capitulations". This suggests that the market might have some more down room to go. Looking to the left, and I had to find a much longer time-frame chart (monthly) to see some support/resistance... the next support level might be 95 for SPY (950 for S&P). If tomorrow SPY nose dive in the morning, then I think it probably would bounce at 95.00 - with high volume. If it climbs up just slightly, then there might be more down moves.

(We are at the level of 2003 for SPY)

[Bolimomo]

SPY opened gapping down to 97.00 and immediately bounced up, as I thought it would. I bought some GS near the 108 open and made some money. The 1/2 point interest rate cut by the Fed helped SPY going to 102.00 in the first 30 minutes, which was incredible. But it was not holding the gain, and now back to 98.00 or so. This does not look like a "capitulation" bounce to me. I am not holding my breath on the bullishness of the market. I am not sure if this is "the bottom".

[pedrom727]

I've found out the hard way, don't try to call a bottom. Anyone who has cash should stay in it until we have strong volume and breadth readings. I've been short this whole year up until the last month and I've just been blown out trying to bottom pick, the downturn has been so fast with absolutely no snap back that I'm still worried, but can't sell out of my position because I just know when I capitulate we'll get an explosion up. Might've put in the bottom today, we'll see by the close. I'm so exhausted from the last few weeks, not actively managing my positions as I'm nearly dry on cash so just waiting for a bounce so I can sell.

[Bolimomo]

What a day! I have never quite seen anything like this for some time in the past 10+ years.

An M shape pattern.

SPY gapped down to 97 (expected), gap-filled to 102 (expected too though didn't think it would make 102), then down to 97.50 again (this was bad for the bulls). Then it seemed as if all the buy programs kicked in passed 12:00 EDT. SPY ramped back to 102. GS, AAPL, RIMM, etc. all went up like there is no tomorrow. Think we are going to have a reversal day today? In just the last 30 minutes, SPY came crashing down back to 97.50. Completed the M formation with big range.

The market had a bipolar disorder today. One hour it was extremely bullish, another hour, extremely bearish. Because it didn't hold the gain to close at high (I thought it would), it suggests that the selling may not be over.

Tomorrow the short-sellers (me!) will be unleashed on financial stocks. It would be hell of an interesting market to trade.

I do day-trade only. This kind of volatility is fantastic. Hope you fellow day-traders make some good money too in this jagged market.

[Bolimomo]

Chart study comments for new traders:

Technical Analysis 101 stuff. Once a support is broken, price goes rapidly down.

SPY had a low of 96.50 yesterday. Bounced off. So 96.50 was a support level. This morning 96.50 was broken briefly at 11:00 am (E) but bounced up. In the last hour of trading... 96.50 was broken again. This time, there was no turning back. You can bet your bottom dollar the SPY would go down further. And it did until 91.00, in less than 1 hour. Tomorrow this 96.50 level will become resistance if there is a rally.

[pedrom727]

We made a tradable bottom today, I knew it right when I saw us bounce off of 7900 and above 8000, bought UYG at 7.69 with the little money I have left. I dont know why I couldnt have just waited until this moment, it was such a text book reversal, I'm so pissed at my self for trying to average into a bottom based on our past % losses. I got cut in half trying to call this bottom and now it's going to be a slow grind back up, sure learned my lesson in this historic market.