Buffet's Pivot point for GS! [Archive]

john_for_u80

10-04-2008, 05:41 PM

As I thought that the market will crash after the bail out news which I mentioned in the UYG/SKF thread, it did happen. I still think market goes lower and S&P can reach near 1075 area (Fibonacci support area and oversold S&P) or little below it to 1050 due to panic and then we can see the rally.

If that is the case GS can go to 115 area from 128(current Friday close).

Market will most likely bounce and Buffet pivot point of 115 will coincidentally meet. So chances are that GS can rally hard for couple of days from 115 area.

Last Monday crash GS held nicely at 115 area and rallied.

Lets keep a watch on this Buffet's Pivot Point on GS at 115!

john_for_u80

10-05-2008, 03:56 PM

bounced

10-05-2008, 07:40 PM

very interesting john, I'll keep my eyes peeled

Bolimomo

10-05-2008, 07:58 PM

Jumping with him in GE and GS makes no sense for us!

I agree there. It doesn't make sense to me either. But I am not a long-term strategist. I am a day-to-day, trying-to-get-my-head-above-water kind of guy.

If he wants GS so badly, on 9/18/08 GS dropped to $90 and change. Under $100 for an hour. He has plenty of cash, right??? He could hire a kid who's good at video game to help him click, click, click to buy 1000 shares here and there any time the price is under $100. LOL! :D Then when he announces his plan on GS, the kid can help him unload >$130. Hey that's only a few days. He could be $50 million richer. On 9/18/08, GS traded 500,000 shares PER MINUTE!!!!

Or buying lots of call options? Or better yet, sellng tons of put options to collect rich premiums?

pedrom727

10-05-2008, 08:30 PM

Don't know if anyone else noticed but VIX was down on Friday even with the new lows we made. I'm looking at futures currently S&P is at 1089.1, I really think we are within one capitulation of a tradeable bottom, if the open is down 20-30 tomorrow I will likely be buying a little bit at the open and more if we go to -50 or so on the S&P for the day. Not the ultimate bottom but we can definitely begin a decent sized bear rally.

john_for_u80

10-05-2008, 10:47 PM

Be careful to go long after S&P reaches 1140 area and then next area to 1170. I think S&P falls back down soon after a small rally. Try and keep stops to protect your gains if S&P rallies!

There are 2 sides:

*One side is big bear down which I already mentioned.

*Other Side can be XLF going back to touch 23 area(Very Rare Scenario but still not to Ignore this BS scenario)

If you are bullish then you can hedge yourself when S&P reaches near 1140 or 1170 area.

I will be adding U.Shorts small position at a time! BNI(Rails) can be good short too!

Try to play with small number of stocks: GS, SPY, SDS, SKF, FXP rather than focusing on whole bunch and missing out the opportunity in such a quick market move!
Decide your stocks for bull and bear moves :)

Note: SPY(S&P) is the one you need to track whole time to know what is your next step!

pedrom727

10-06-2008, 10:25 AM

I'm in no means bullish on the fundamentals at this point, I just think with credit default swaps on your nightly news station that the information is very well integrated into most people's heads. You get bottoms (both long and short term) when there is no more sell side, and I think that's what will happen soon enough. I've had a hell of a time trading this market since the spike off of 1200 but I think maintaining a cool head and looking for good opportunities while everyone else is running around like a chicken with their head cut off will make a good trade. Cash is so vital in this market, I made the mistake of losing my discipline and getting too agressive, it's still not easy money on the short side of this whipsawing market, you really need the cash to add to positions when they go against you because the next day will probably move the opposite way.

Bolimomo

10-06-2008, 12:17 PM

Lets keep a watch on this Buffet's Pivot Point on GS at 115!
You are so right, John. To the penny!!!!!

GS went to a low of 115.00 this morning and bounced, now at 117.42. I was drooling to short GS at near the opening at 122.00. Was told by my broker that the short ban expires this Thursday. Not until then... long side only...

Bolimomo

10-07-2008, 01:11 AM

The Buffet Pivot of 115 held up very well! The double bottom retest only reached 116 when the market sold off near low at 2:45 pm (E), then bounced back to 126. Very tradable intraday!

john_for_u80

10-07-2008, 01:20 AM

The Buffet Pivot of 115 held up very well! The double bottom retest only reached 116 when the market sold off near low at 2:45 pm (E), then bounced back to 126. Very tradable intraday!

I did trade GS from 116 to 125 area. I also got into SPY but got out too early.
Missed on RIMM :)

BAC reported bad AH but Futures are up!

Bolimomo

10-07-2008, 05:39 PM

The Buffet Pivot was violated near close today (went to 112.00). But GS closed at exactly 115.00. Very interesting!

john_for_u80

10-07-2008, 05:50 PM

The Buffet Pivot was violated near close today (went to 112.00). But GS closed at exactly 115.00. Very interesting!

Buffet went for a bathroom break and GS slipped :)

The more time it retest and more people know that secret point, chances are that it violates!

john_for_u80

10-08-2008, 09:01 PM

One wild guess from my side which is possible: C is the next to collapse! I hope WFC gets Wachovia!
Short sell ban lift will be interesting to see how C stock reacts!

Market gets very huge panic which many might have not thought about it and then the real final capitulation bottom is formed in this toxic market(would not be surprised to see S&P going to 2002 support area near 950) where market consolidates for months to year!

I would love to see market rally next week after a sell off on Monday so that I can build position on SDS and some SKF!

Lets see :)

Another Big U.S. Bank Failure Could Happen, Warns Roubini

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/91647/Another-Big-U.S.-Bank-Failure-Could-Happen-Warns-Roubini?tickers=c,wb,fre,fnm,GS,aig,MS

I still think that S&P goes to 930 we may see 1080 area before we head down lower!

What if we break down S&P 2002 bottom on C collapse panic in future? Everyone will get washed out, even the hedge funds guy who are in pain will be forced to get out! A clear wash out where whole world markets will be panicked!

Bolimomo

10-08-2008, 11:13 PM

.....
Market will most likely bounce and Buffet pivot point of 115 will coincidentally meet. So chances are that GS can rally hard for couple of days from 115 area.

Last Monday crash GS held nicely at 115 area and rallied.

Lets keep a watch on this Buffet's Pivot Point on GS at 115!

John: Would you mind going over how this Buffet Pivot of $115 came into being?

Today GS kind of gyrated around this 115.00 figure: a low of 108 at the open, went to 119 early in the morning (and 121 in the afternoon). Closed at 113.46, but held up much better than SPY which went back to its morning open low.

I am trying to anticipate how to play GS tomorrow. I haven't been trading GS too much in the past few weeks because we couldn't short it. I don't like playing tennis when the rule says I can do "forehand only". When I can enter either long or short, I feel more confortable.

I examined the 15-minute, multi-day chart of GS and prices seem to be above 115 most of the time (until yesterday and today).

Thank you.

john_for_u80

10-09-2008, 02:40 AM

115 is the buying price of GS by Buffet.

Bolimomo

10-09-2008, 07:38 PM

The Buffet Pivot of 115 on GS was broken very early this morning. No turning back. 100 near close. I shorted GS a few times intraday and made some money.

Wasn't I right? If Buffet really wants GS so badly, he could hire a kid to keep hitting the buy button all day today. Most of his buy prices would be way lower than the 115 that he is willing to pay.

Smokes and Mirrors.

John Law

10-09-2008, 08:01 PM

115 is the buying price of GS by Buffet.

Buffet purchased preferred shares for a 10% coupon. They are perpetual preferred...I have seen no conversion price, only the 10% buyback premium from Goldman. The $115 figure is for the warrants that Buffet has an option to buy at any time in the next 5 years. I hardly think that people were forming their trading price around the price that Buffett might pay in the next 5 years, they are thinking about the price right now. I'm willing to bet that even Berkshire hasn't exercised those warrants yet. He's just collecting 10% on his preferreds and lending his name out, and obviously, it didn't work. Anyone buying Goldman because of the prices of Goldman's warrants is not thinking clearly.

john_for_u80

10-09-2008, 10:16 PM

Buffet purchased preferred shares for a 10% coupon. They are perpetual preferred...I have seen no conversion price, only the 10% buyback premium from Goldman. The $115 figure is for the warrants that Buffet has an option to buy at any time in the next 5 years. I hardly think that people were forming their trading price around the price that Buffett might pay in the next 5 years, they are thinking about the price right now. I'm willing to bet that even Berkshire hasn't exercised those warrants yet. He's just collecting 10% on his preferreds and lending his name out, and obviously, it didn't work. Anyone buying Goldman because of the prices of Goldman's warrants is not thinking clearly.

Yeah know that but 115 was the figure where market made it bounce!

Bolimomo

10-10-2008, 12:52 PM

Buffet went for a bathroom break and GS slipped :)

The Buffet Pivot of 115 didn't hold water. GS gapped down open at 84 or so this morning. Went to 98 (Near yesterday's Support became Resistance). Now back to breaking early low. Now at 80.

Buffet can take his time to buy all he wants.

statepkt

10-28-2008, 11:24 AM

Hate to bring back such an old thread, but anyone have an idea why all the financial's including GS are crashing and not participating in the rallies?

john_for_u80

10-28-2008, 11:51 AM

Hate to bring back such an old thread, but anyone have an idea why all the financial's including GS are crashing and not participating in the rallies?

BS fundamentals. When strong sound companies are tanking, these banks are pure BS.

Gov/Fed buying the stakes- You will see the capitulation when they will be in!

Bolimomo

10-28-2008, 11:54 AM

Why? Dunno. I have long since stopped asking "why" when trading. The stock market is chaotic. There are always reasons. Not just one reason. And hundreds of reasons cooked together produces the price movements that we see.

From a chart reading perpective, GS is resting the low of around 75 to 80 established.

The Buffett pivot of 115 didn't hold water. When GS went to 140 last month because they banned shorting financial stocks... I was thinking... 140? My bottom!!!!! But too bad couldn't short then. Mr. Buffet can buy all the GS shares he wants. Take his time. If something is worth buying at 115, it must be a steal at 85, right?

john_for_u80

10-28-2008, 12:33 PM

Hate to bring back such an old thread, but anyone have an idea why all the financial's including GS are crashing and not participating in the rallies?

GS had short position in Volkswagen and look at their shares now, they sky rocketed!

Bolimomo

11-06-2008, 09:30 PM

Has anybody traded GS when it was $240? I have. I day-trade GS pretty much everyday, except during that period when they banned shorting on financial stocks.

$240... Today GS is at $80. Exactly 1/3 of the former value. Almost exactly 1 year ago. It had baffled my mind that why while other financial stocks crapped so much and GS stood relatively well staying around $130-$140 2 months ago.

Today... I toast to GS: Welcome to the beaten-up financial stock club! You might be on the way to teendom. :biggrin: I will still continue to trade you until maybe you go below $50. I don't like to day-trade stocks under $50 too much...

Bolimomo

11-10-2008, 03:08 PM

GS dropped from 79 to 69 this morning. Beautiful!

Horsefish

11-10-2008, 05:09 PM

GS dropped from 79 to 69 this morning. Beautiful!

Still was a good day trade. I got in at 68.57 and out at 71.27. Same thing is likely to happen tomorrow.

Bolimomo

11-10-2008, 10:39 PM

Still was a good day trade. I got in at 68.57 and out at 71.27. Same thing is likely to happen tomorrow.

Looks like the bulls make money, and the bears make money. Unless you are a :sheep:. LOL!

psychOnAcycle

11-11-2008, 12:23 AM

how much lower do you see GS going? Is it on a full motion downfall with fewer and fewer people believing in investing in the market, or is it due to hold some ground?

Bolimomo

11-11-2008, 11:24 AM

How low I see GS going? I wish I can tell you. I don't make predictions. I only react to price movements.

I love seeing people making predictions or naming hopes. Predicting GOOG to go back to >$600. Hoping RIMM to go back to $100 to break-even and sell. Speculating GM going to $8 or $10. Or WM to double before it tanked. Most of what the "experts" on CNBC predicted turned out wrong anyway (e.g. GOOG >$1000, or Dow >20000). So why bother to follow predictions?

Investors and speculators trade on predictions and hopes. Traders like me trade on what we see. I don't care about the fundamental reasons (and there are always reasons, just too many of them). I certainly don't follow news. The price chart is what I go by. Because the current price and price history are real. Not in somebody's imagination.

john_for_u80

11-11-2008, 03:43 PM

Got in some Warren's BNI at 81. Will look to sell tomorrow!

Horsefish

11-11-2008, 04:36 PM

Once again, GS was worth a $4.00 per share day trade. 68 to 71.
Boli: how long do you think that this daily swing will continue? It can't go on for much longer. I expect that tomorrow will be an up day. I will probably sit on the sidelines and wait for some clue to direction.

Bolimomo

11-11-2008, 04:48 PM

Boli: how long do you think that this daily swing will continue?

Sorry. Again, I don't make predictions.

I am reading a new trading book by Vadym Graifer:

Techniques of Tape Reading

He said:

Trade what you see, not what you think.

I am with him on that thought. Every day the environment is different. That's what day trading is all about. React to what the environment has to give you. If Dow/S&P are bullish, GS can swing up 4-5 points. If bearish, down 5-10 points. Hard to predict. I don't think. I trade what I see.

(BTW: The tape reading book is good. I enjoy it.)

Horsefish

11-11-2008, 05:32 PM

Sorry. Again, I don't make predictions.

I am reading a new trading book by Vadym Graifer:

Techniques of Tape Reading

He said:

Trade what you see, not what you think.

I am with him on that thought. Every day the environment is different. That's what day trading is all about. React to what the environment has to give you. If Dow/S&P are bullish, GS can swing up 4-5 points. If bearish, down 5-10 points. Hard to predict. I don't think. I trade what I see.

(BTW: The tape reading book is good. I enjoy it.)

Yesterday I posted that GS would be a good day trade again today. It was. I hope that others participated in the opportunity to make some money in this crazy and volatile market.

If you don't want to share your opinion on how to succeed in this market, then why are you here? We do not need to know what you did yesterday. We need to know what your opinion is about what happens tomorrow so we all can weigh your intended actions ahead of time. It's all about making money in the next market session.

Bolimomo

11-11-2008, 07:13 PM

If you don't want to share your opinion on how to succeed in this market, then why are you here? We do not need to know what you did yesterday. We need to know what your opinion is about what happens tomorrow so we all can weigh your intended actions ahead of time. It's all about making money in the next market session.

I am sorry. I think there is a unclear objective in posting in this forum. It's about "stock picks and strategies". I succeed as a day-trading scalper. My strategy is momentum scalping. GS is one of my picks to trade everyday. 1) I don't have time to call out my trades in this forum and trade at the same time. Maybe other people can. 2) Even if I call out my trades, it will be closed and probably reversed from a long to a short or vice versa by the time you read it. So how good is posting them?

I indicated that I see GS is going downhill because it broke below $80. If you ask me how low it will go, I just say I don't know. And I don't care. I scalp-trade it everyday just the same.

I will shut up about my opionion now and watch you all make predictions on this and that to the exact penny. And be amused.

john_for_u80

11-12-2008, 02:49 PM

Got in some Warren's BNI at 81. Will look to sell tomorrow!

BNI holding strong in this down market. I am little positive for markets in the near term. Lets see...

I got very small position in SSO. Will accumulate more if upside momentum is strong!

Horsefish

11-12-2008, 04:39 PM

BNI holding strong in this down market. I am little positive for markets in the near term. Lets see...

I got very small position in SSO. Will accumulate more if upside momentum is strong!

Also bought SSO and DDM just now. Expect that tomorrow will be an up day. Don't usually hold overnight but this is one of those times. If the market rallys tomorrow I will take a position in EEV.

Bolimomo

01-29-2009, 04:52 AM

4071

GS went down to $60 6 sessions ago. This morning touched almost $90.

Wouldn't you want to have Buffet's money? Tell the broker: Hey Bob... When Goldman falls below $65, I want you to buy 200,000 shares for every dollar that it drops. Yes... I will take all!

6 days later... $30 million richer...

MoreYummy

01-29-2009, 10:43 PM

How much $ spend in all those trades?

Bolimomo

01-29-2009, 11:10 PM

How much $ spend in all those trades?
If he buys 5 lots, 200000 shares each, 1 million shares total... $70 million perhaps. To make $30 million in 6 days. Good deal! (It's a 40% rise in 6 days. It's great by any standard.)