Weekly Stock Challenge 9/15/2006 - Win Free Trading Book

[Thierry Martin]

Stock Picking Challenge

Pick the highest percentage mover and win a free hardcover copy of Conquer the Crash!

Pick any stock that trades in the US market that closed at $2.00 or over as of the Friday close before the contest.

Your entry price will be the market open price on Monday morning.

Entries for following week's challenge opens at Friday's market close - 4:00 pm EST - and closes at 9:00 am EST Monday.

[John Smith]

Tek

[villacresta]

FDG, may not win the contest but it is my gift to the readers of this thread as a 'newbie'. closed down over 4% friday, worth 30 for the dividends alone.

[SmartMoney101]

taking JRCC, this one has been flatlined for a month now, just waiting for it to pop

[Borden_john]

soigf

[MoMoney4Me]

ENCORE WIRE CORP - WIRE

[krazykowboy]

Qcom

[TheChartGuru]

I'll take LNUX

[aiki14]

I'll take STTK short
I can't get real enthusiastic about anything this week, although I did add to my positions in RMBS and CHDT, and picked up a little BBY going into tuesdays earnings. I think we'll see a fair pick up in general volume but no big movement in the indices.

[aiki14]

I forgot the rules there for a bit. I'll take AMCS

[Thierry Martin]

Apple - AAPL

[TonyM]

MRO for a longshot, since I'm not losing any money if I'm wrong.

[chinaman711]

I'll stick with XING sure hope they report this week.

[metalheadrr3]

I've been on this board a while and have never done this. Lets go to left field and pick LGTY - Logility Inc.

[CHE]

I am going with SKS-

[Svenwulf]

out of spite this week: FUEL (long)

in another post, i recomend one of my actual holdings and, of course, it proceeds to dive. then someone even starts a thread, gets flamed by a TA genius, and fuel gets hammered friday. predictable. could be trouble with the earnings (late again)? could be lack of work with building slowdown/ no hurricanes? could be just some big money leaving this stock? or maybe folks think they are levered to crude/ gasoline? as i stated in the previous post, this should be considered for SPECULATION only and i would encourage you to find a different place to put money.

thats a lot of negativity for a long position. with all that baggage, why would i be interested? even if its play money, thats a big hill to climb.

so now i tell you why my newbie ass is looking here. firstly, as previously mentioned: spite. but there is more. second: warrants. for us newbs, these are basically insider call options the company started issuing 2 months ago. warrants can be tricky, but the net debt savings should be good biz here. also, i like the idea of big money thinking this stock goes higher, although that is totaly infered on my part (call option+ insider= good) and could take a much longer time frame than the week. so, again, why? well, i guess i think im an ametuer meteorologist-
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-ir4-loop.html
this could also take longer than the week, but i am banking on the market pre-reaction.
good luck all!

[Jordan]

Hsoa

[Thierry Martin]

Well one thing you can't do through Christ is enter this week's contest late.

[Jordan]

Well one thing you can't do through Christ is enter this week's contest late.

Ha sorry

[MoMoney4Me]

out of spite this week: FUEL (long)
well, i guess i think im an ametuer meteorologist-
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/eatl-ir4-loop.html
this could also take longer than the week, but i am banking on the market pre-reaction.
good luck all!

Svenwolf may be looking into his crystal ball and seeing something here. If the upper level wind sheer doesn't dominate, we may have trouble brewing.
Now I know where Jim Cantore gets his info :D

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON SEP 11 2006

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...LOCATED ABOUT 435 MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS EMERGING FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

[big_bear_yeah]

Ebof

[big_bear_yeah]

new to this board. not sure if I posted in right area..

by stock for the week.. EBOF

[TonyM]

Svenwolf may be looking into his crystal ball and seeing something here. If the upper level wind sheer doesn't dominate, we may have trouble brewing.
Now I know where Jim Cantore gets his info :D

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT MON SEP 11 2006

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN...LOCATED ABOUT 435 MILES
NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

A STRONG TROPICAL WAVE IS EMERGING FROM THE COAST OF AFRICA.
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
AS IT MOVES WESTWARD OVER THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC.

Nah, anything that develops off the African coast at this time of year will curve Northward much like Flo did. You would need something to develop in the Caribbean to have any chance of affecting the Gulf.

[Borden_john]

Whops i thought this was to pick the biggest loser for the week, if that was the case i would be winning!:mrgreen:

[Thierry Martin]

Whops i thought this was to pick the biggest loser for the week, if that was the case i would be winning!:mrgreen:

You can always short a stock

[Thierry Martin]

Ebof


You must enter before the market open on Monday.

[Thierry Martin]

Hey, come on guys, that's pretty lousy! :eek:

341

[MoMoney4Me]

Nah, anything that develops off the African coast at this time of year will curve Northward much like Flo did. You would need something to develop in the Caribbean to have any chance of affecting the Gulf.

Virtually every tropical disturbance that devleops into a hurricane in the Caribbean originates coming off the western African coasts. And September is most often the peak of hurricane season.

[TonyM]

Virtually every tropical disturbance that devleops into a hurricane in the Caribbean originates coming off the western African coasts. And September is most often the peak of hurricane season.

And virtually every system that develops early off the African coast at this time of year recurves to the North, just like Gordon is doing:

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200607_climo.html#a_topad

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200606_climo.html#a_topad

How many do you see heading to the Gulf?

[Svenwulf]

i agree that we have weather conditions forcing any african activity to recurve north- Ernie, Flo, Gordy. but i disagree this is normal. also the southern caribean has been pretty quiet. just take a look at storm archives, and unfortunatley september is the month historically with the most nasty ones. I do not wish pain, suffering or loss toward any, and i feel a company like fuel actually do a good service by helping those in distress, as opposed to profiting from desperate people. jmo,and glad you enjoyed the link.

[Svenwulf]

Hey, come on guys, that's pretty lousy! :eek:


the sad part is its still better than my real stuff this week- OOOWWWIIIEE!

[TonyM]

i agree that we have weather conditions forcing any african activity to recurve north- Ernie, Flo, Gordy. but i disagree this is normal. also the southern caribean has been pretty quiet. just take a look at storm archives, and unfortunatley september is the month historically with the most nasty ones. I do not wish pain, suffering or loss toward any, and i feel a company like fuel actually do a good service by helping those in distress, as opposed to profiting from desperate people. jmo,and glad you enjoyed the link.

Here is last years; notice no Sept storms that originated near Africa above 20 degrees went to the Gulf

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at2005.asp

Here's 2004; (Ivan was well below 20 degrees)

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at2004.asp

2003;

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at2003.asp

2002;

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at2002.asp

2001;

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at2001.asp

2000;

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at2000.asp

Looks like a trend to me; Tropical systems above 20 degress latitude off the coast of Africa normally go NNW then N. Systems that develop between 10 and 15 degrees have a much better chance at making it to the Caribbean.

Forgive my zealousness on the subject, I've been a Floridian studying tropical activity since 1985, which does not make me an expert by any means, but I do know where to research them, and as such (knock on wood) I've never had to evacuate, sometimes just lucky, but luck doesn't usually last for 21 years;)

[TonyM]

Before you get ready to nail me on TD 8, remember it is at 12.5N ...in the 10-15 degree area I mentioned, It has based on past history a better than average shot of impacting the US (assuming development), however none have taken the Gulf route, which is what I watch for in relation to oil speculation.

http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200608_climo.html#a_topad

[Svenwulf]

excellent rigor. i still do not see these 2 facts being mutually exclusive. basically i see a lot of activity this september, and an unusual amount of that activity forming above the 20 lat. with everyone writing hurricanes off already, i just see any development in the sweet spot (td8) as an opportunity for profit. jmo, and again, thanks for the info!

ps- interested in sources for weather modeling. any help/links appreciated in advance. i like the noaa because i view it as as close to the source as possible, but it can be unfriendly for casual user.

pss- imo it is always better to be lucky than good.

[TonyM]

Svenwulf, I just noticed that link you mentioned...funny, it is one of the tabs I always have open on my laptop during the summer (along with weatherunderground) the satellite loops are excellent tools for spotting developing activity before the general media.

[Thierry Martin]

343

[MoMoney4Me]

TonyM,
After studying your posts and doing a little more research on my own, I agree you are right and I stand corrected. I jumped the gun on this one.

[chriscoop]

Siri

[TonyM]

TonyM,
After studying your posts and doing a little more research on my own, I agree you are right and I stand corrected. I jumped the gun on this one.

No worries, just sharing information;)

[Thierry Martin]

Neck and neck - it's not usually this close.

345

[reef]

I'll take SIRI for next week. ;)

[chriscoop]

I turn in my pick too late?

[Thierry Martin]

Pick has to be in by 9:00 Monday morning for that week. Do you want your pick for next week?

[Thierry Martin]

348

[Thierry Martin]

351

[chriscoop]

aaa.. sorry about that.... no put me in for ORCL for next week.