shorting oil??

[clavocat]

what do you guys think about shorting oil stocks...ex. SU HAL BQI SLB CVX?? tell me what you guys think

[TonyM]

what do you guys think about shorting oil stocks...ex. SU HAL BQI SLB CVX?? tell me what you guys think

I think you might be a little late to the party, there is a lot of opinion among the "experts' and "analysts" that crude will stabilize at $65 and there are indications that inventories will see a drawdown next week on Wednesday when the report will be released. Shorting oil stocks last Tuesday might have been the time to do so, I'm not sure how much downside is left, you could probably make a little though as long as you set a trailing stop, all imho of course. One oil stock in particular that seems to be having trouble though is vlo.

The tough thing about oil stocks is that you never know when a geopolitical or natural event will pop up at say 2 am and you can do nothing but watch your position get decimated in pre-market trading (it's awfully tough for us small guys to get an order filled in pre-market or after hours when the volume is heavy, in my experience anyway.)

Good luck

[chinaman711]

Agree and if 65 does not hold watch out below. 67.40 was a key and when that fell shorts were all over the big oil stocks.

[zyzzyva57]

I am not much into conspiracy theories, but what do you think will happen to the oil prices post the big Nov elections? I cannot get away from the feeling something beyond the Law of Supply and Demand is going on. At the present rate of the oil price decline, gas prices is becoming less and less of an issue with the generic voter. Things are wierdly convenient for the politicians of all stripes.

[TonyM]

I am not much into conspiracy theories, but what do you think will happen to the oil prices post the big Nov elections? I cannot get away from the feeling something beyond the Law of Supply and Demand is going on. At the present rate of the oil price decline, gas prices is becoming less and less of an issue with the generic voter. Things are wierdly convenient for the politicians of all stripes.

I'm not into conspiracy either, however Opec's supply issues in the past seem to coincide with recent drops in price, if some type of Opec related problem occurs to start the price rising again we will then know Opec's preffered minimum price, imo.

I agree that it is quite convenient that crude goes lower now, I wouldn't put anything past a politician, especially a president with oil interests.

[zyzzyva57]

OPEC likes $60 per barrel oil for the obvious reason it cools the actualizing fuel efficient vehicles. As I recall, OPEC was most uncomfortable with the traders driving up oil prices passed $60. Now, the same calm has occurred that previously drove the oil price up, but now the prices are going in the opposite direction. I am most interested watching my hypothesis "politics is controlling the price of a barrel of oil for the major election in Nov." I am most eager to see the price of oil the first weeks AFTER the Nov elections, assuming, of course, we do not have another Katrina. (The percentages are high for the hurricane season that we will have at least two major hurricanes. The prediction is for the East Coast to get them.) If I was not a Newbie, I would move into options just to bet on the price of oil going back into the insane spiral up post the elections.

[TonyM]

You might enjoy the movie "Syrianna" if you haven't already seen it, the movie is about the oil industry, politics, market manipulation, islamic extremists, etc. Definitley makes you think about crude manipulation.

[zyzzyva57]

I want to see the movie. I am not into conspiracies other than when movies do them. Still...