Predictions

[niketennis1]

Hey I haven't been on this forum for a while because I got out of the stock market like 3-4 months ago (Sold my SIRI for $1.80 a share bc I lost a lot of shares I had on margin because of a margin call!!!!, thankfully I didn't hold on to the stock bc now its trading around .65 cents a share)
Well my topic for now is when will the market recover? I know no one here can answer this but I want to hear your predictions. I've looked at a lot of stocks that I loved 5-6 months ago and they are heavily discounted now. Two stocks are FSLR and AAPL. Now I know that the market probably has some more bad months ahead but for value investors, I feel like the next 1-3 years will be the time to buy low, hold, and sell in the next 5-10 years to make some very solid profits. I know many people hate thesee downturns in the market but I love them because a lot of great stocks go on sale and the market will turn around (but who knows when). Hopefully no one on this board lost too much money in these bad times.

[cramerica1972]

Hey I haven't been on this forum for a while because I got out of the stock market like 3-4 months ago (Sold my SIRI for $1.80 a share bc I lost a lot of shares I had on margin because of a margin call!!!!, thankfully I didn't hold on to the stock bc now its trading around .65 cents a share)
Well my topic for now is when will the market recover? I know no one here can answer this but I want to hear your predictions. I've looked at a lot of stocks that I loved 5-6 months ago and they are heavily discounted now. Two stocks are FSLR and AAPL. Now I know that the market probably has some more bad months ahead but for value investors, I feel like the next 1-3 years will be the time to buy low, hold, and sell in the next 5-10 years to make some very solid profits. I know many people hate thesee downturns in the market but I love them because a lot of great stocks go on sale and the market will turn around (but who knows when). Hopefully no one on this board lost too much money in these bad times.nike,siri's going down i think b/c of the credit crunch.

[coolio]

Thinking of a long term play, I'm going to be picking up Boeing, Accenture and Foster Wheeler. I will hold for a minimum of 1 year.

[BuyOnDips]

Thinking of a long term play, I'm going to be picking up Boeing, Accenture and Foster Wheeler. I will hold for a minimum of 1 year.

I also like Foster Wheeler and Boeing(once the strike is over). I'm looking at all the heavy construction/engineering companies like FLR, ABB and JEC. I also like BUCY. It seems like hedge funds are still dumping. There's no hurry to buy right now, but these stocks seem like they are in bargain territory if you have the stomach to hold long term(at least a year). Good luck.

[niketennis1]

Yea i'm out of Sirius for good. Too speculative (even for me)

[BuyOnDips]

FWIW, I just bought a few shares of CBI @ $13.00 for a quick trade. It got crushed today. I thought it was a little overkill. Probably hedge funds dumping. I doubt I'll hold it long. I almost bought some shares of BUCY and EGLE but passed. The market is very scary. I think the best trading strategy right now is to buy solid companies that get crushed on down days(more than 15%) and then to sell the hopeful bounce. Otherwise stay in cash and watch and wait. There's no need to be a hero right now.

It is amazing how so many quality stocks have fallen 40, 50, 60, 70 percent is just a few months. And I'm not talking about the financial stocks which deserved their free fall.

[Bolimomo]

It is amazing how so many quality stocks have fallen 40, 50, 60, 70 percent is just a few months. And I'm not talking about the financial stocks which deserved their free fall.

The argument would be what consistitues a "quality" stock though. Valuation on stock prices has always been subjective. Beauty (or in this case stock price "worthiness") is in the eye of the beholder. Is GOOG a quality stock? Did it worth $700 a share? (Now $350) Is AAPL a quality stock? Did it worth $200 a share? (Now $100) Is GS a quality stock? Did it worth $240 a share? (Now $115)

In a bull market, many of these stocks tend to get overpriced. In a bear market (like where we are in now), many stocks will be re-priced. Still, what constitute a "quality" stock?

[DuncanK]

Just to reiterate what has already been said, if your going to invest in companies right now, it is DRASTICALLY important to make sure that the they too will not get squeezed out in the credit crunch. An intensive macro view of a company will help you choose a stock that will bounce back with the market.

I was analyzing CLNE, Pickens natural gas company, and it looks like a very opportune time to buy, however, regardless of the energy sector taking further hits, even if Proposition 10 were to pass, California has no money (and no one willing to lend them money) making the bill obsolete and drastically hurting CLNE.

But, I'm still thinking about picking up some shares....

[BuyOnDips]

The argument would be what consistitues a "quality" stock though. Valuation on stock prices has always been subjective. Beauty (or in this case stock price "worthiness") is in the eye of the beholder. Is GOOG a quality stock? Did it worth $700 a share? (Now $350) Is AAPL a quality stock? Did it worth $200 a share? (Now $100) Is GS a quality stock? Did it worth $240 a share? (Now $115)

In a bull market, many of these stocks tend to get overpriced. In a bear market (like where we are in now), many stocks will be re-priced. Still, what constitute a "quality" stock?

Finding quality stocks is the key. That's where homework comes into play. I'm looking for stocks with really low P/Es, good growth(even in a recession), lots of cash(little or no debt) and a large share repurchase program. Plus the stock has to be down a lot recently and then has to have a large down day. FWLT is a perfect example of this kind of stock. http://finance.yahoo.com/q/ks?s=FWLT
I'm not holding these stocks for long term right now. These are quick trades, hopefully with odds in your favor.

I'd still stay away from financials for now. They are not for me. I might buy AAPL if it fell 12 -15% in a day for a quick trade. I wish I knew what they were going to do with all their cash. They might have problems going forward if the consumer really stops spending. I might trade GOOG too for a quick trade if it fell 12-15% in a day. I think GOOG's problem is they hired too many employees, too fast. Their ad revenues will fall if the we get a real bad recession.

It also helps if you can find good stocks that are being dumped by hedge funds. They are dumping great stocks at any price. You can find bargains for a quick trade. Use your mad money. Good luck.

http://money.cnn.com/2008/10/06/news/companies/boyd_tontine.fortune/index.htm?source=yahoo_quote