Cramer 7/31 - "14 weeks of gloom"?

[madcowdisease]

On Monday's Mad Money show Jim said (and I paraphrase) he foresees 14 more weeks of recessionary talk surrounding the market. Does anyone happen to know what he is alluding to for certain? I've looked in to FOMC meetings and they have one on Oct 24/25 but this is 13 weeks away. Perhaps Jim got it wrong (13 vs. 14 weeks) or is he implying something else will happen?

The only thing I can think after reading the recap is Cramer is certain this "Fed-mandated recession" will last 6 months. This guy has some gall if he thinks he can predict the length of the stock market decline without further substantiation.

What I think may be more accuate is the FOMC takes us to 6 percent by the end of October and then we may witness a bounce in the market when they announce they are finished. Consequently we have 13 weeks 'til we're done Fed watching. Then we need to watch the economy for signs of life so we know when it's safe to get back in.

[wqcustom]

if im not mistaken, the next fed meeting is aug. 8th. consensus seems to be 50/50 whether we see a hike then which is pretty unusual. usually by now, the market has 'figured out' and priced in what to expect, but this time there is alot of uncertainty. this next meeting is really gonna be a make or break imo. if they raise this meeting and dont say or hint that this is the last hike, then look out below.

im hoping the latest gdp report and the obviously slowing housing market will bring the fed to there senses and stop now.

[soundlanguage]

Seems to me what he's also taking into account is typical cyclical trends like slow sales during summer and upcoming "dog days" ...

Half the entire country has already enjoyed the distracting thrills of wild fires, floods, heat waves, blackouts (or threats of), compounded by external pressures of global political woes, slowing home sales and discretionary spending down. An ugly storm (hopefully not leading to the perfect one).

Back to school spending will perk next quarter earnings as always but won't float the overall economy, obviously. Mid-late Sept will be interesting, possibe sharp & short rallies thanks to investors returning then cooler heads prevail in Oct.

His forecast isnt predictive arrogance so much as reading the usual signs i think, common sense would lead anyone to the same conclusion, we're due for a long slump then upturn speaking in very general terms. Just my .02 anyway...

[madcowdisease]

Seems to me what he's also taking into account is typical cyclical trends like slow sales during summer and upcoming "dog days" ...

Half the entire country has already enjoyed the distracting thrills of wild fires, floods, heat waves, blackouts (or threats of), compounded by external pressures of global political woes, slowing home sales and discretionary spending down. An ugly storm (hopefully not leading to the perfect one).

Back to school spending will perk next quarter earnings as always but won't float the overall economy, obviously. Mid-late Sept will be interesting, possibe sharp & short rallies thanks to investors returning then cooler heads prevail in Oct.

His forecast isnt predictive arrogance so much as reading the usual signs i think, common sense would lead anyone to the same conclusion, we're due for a long slump then upturn speaking in very general terms. Just my .02 anyway...

Thank you. That makes sense and offers a different perspective from my attempt to nail it down to a particular event.

if im not mistaken, the next fed meeting is aug. 8th. consensus seems to be 50/50 whether we see a hike then which is pretty unusual. usually by now, the market has 'figured out' and priced in what to expect, but this time there is alot of uncertainty. this next meeting is really gonna be a make or break imo. if they raise this meeting and dont say or hint that this is the last hike, then look out below.

im hoping the latest gdp report and the obviously slowing housing market will bring the fed to there senses and stop now.

Agreed, the market doesn't know what the FOMC will do but I do. You can read here: http://www.cramersmadmoney.com/showthread.php?t=4952 Yet another reason I'm not long much of aything except high yield consumer staples.

As far as the housing market, the slow down is welcomed imo. When the Fed slashed intrest rates 5 yrs ago they created a glut of cheap money. If you look at historical charts of interest rates you'll see that even the goldilocks' economy of the late '90s had an interest rate between 4-6%. The economic boom that was spawned by equity loans and speculating in real estate was unhealthy and unsustainable. I, for one, do not understand everyone's undying focus on the real estate market.

Personally I am hoping the Fed takes us to 6% and brings back some value in the US Dollar. Even if your home is increasing 10% a year it doesn't mean much if the dollar is losing 5% in inflation per yr and at this rate with oil and our debt that is what you'll see if the FOMC doesn't vote to raise 3 more times before the end of the year.