Newbie-With $3000-thinking of ANF-what you think

[showmethemoney]

I like Abrercrombie & Fitch (ANF) due to recommendations and doing my homework of course, AE said they are gaining market share on Hollister, should I be worried about that, Hollister is a big money maker for ANF.

Anyway what are your thougts for this investing Newbie, is ANF right here with the bearish market, or should I look to more defensive stock (PG, JNJ, PEP, XOM)

[mlegha1]

Diversify...if you still want to play with it all go take a look at CVX ...good quarter ahead and a solid company.

[Imperator]

I think you should buy 3000 powerball tickets.

they have GREAT returns.

[madcowdisease]

I like Abrercrombie & Fitch (ANF) due to recommendations and doing my homework of course, AE said they are gaining market share on Hollister, should I be worried about that, Hollister is a big money maker for ANF.

Anyway what are your thougts for this investing Newbie, is ANF right here with the bearish market, or should I look to more defensive stock (PG, JNJ, PEP, XOM)

I agree you should diversify but you'd be wise to include ANF in your portfolio. I don't think ANF goes much lower and it has 50% upside in the next 12-18 months. Do a Forum Search on "ANF" to see what else has been said about this firm. I've been bullsih on it all year.

PS: Don't sweat AE saying they are gaining ground. The fashion industry swings from quarter to quarter. With Mike Jeffries at the helm don't thnk ANF is down and out for very long. They're already implementing cost cutting procedures, even though the only reason ANF was down was due to tough compares, so you should see higher margins next quarter.

[showmethemoney]

Thanks for the info madcow, Did you see ANF was downgraded this morning and is down over a buck in pre-market, so it just got even cheaper, but man what is all the negativity over, I cant find out what it is.

[madcowdisease]

Thanks for the info madcow, Did you see ANF was downgraded this morning and is down over a buck in pre-market, so it just got even cheaper, but man what is all the negativity over, I cant find out what it is.

My understanding is it's the tough compares. Analysts are comparing ANF to Q2 2005 this last time they reported. ANF had a stellar quarter this time last yr so anything less than an absolute blowout makes the stock look like it's not growing (and we all are aware of the growth bias on Wall St.). This doesn't mean ANF isn't doing well or not growing, just that they didn't blow everyone away this time around.

You may want to consider that Q3 and Q4 of last yr the entire fashion industry was being ridiculed by Wall St. for a denim glut. Thus I suspect the compares will be easier to beat in Q3 and Q4 of 2006. FYI, ANF got through the "glut" just fine ;).

[2 Worldz]

Down to about $50.00 bucks today. Could be a great buying opportunity. Please let the dust settle before jumping in. They also have a divbidend payment if you buy shares about 4 days before August 7th. What is happening on the charts guys? This could be great opportunity within the week.

[2 Worldz]

Sorry, you must be in possesion of ANF on August 25, to receive the measly dividend of .175 cents a share. The August 7th date I was refering to HET Harrahs wihch will pay a .40 cent dividend quarterly

[Will]

Down to about $50.00 bucks today. Could be a great buying opportunity. Please let the dust settle before jumping in. They also have a divbidend payment if you buy shares about 4 days before August 7th. What is happening on the charts guys? This could be great opportunity within the week.


I still see some possible downside to ANF, but I have still been buying. I don't see it going much lower than 46, but the upside is huge. Once we reach the downside support at 46ish, the risk will be out, barring a major depression.

If you plan on buying in now, I would just buy using a portion of your funds, so you can average in later.

I would suggest diversifying though, as it will keep you afloat and help you stay away from panic selling.

[TheChartGuru]

ANF is still heading lower. Classic Stage 4. It is oversold on the weekly chart. It may have a small bounce to $56 but it's headed down to $44-46. Dont chase the stock. Let it come to you

http://tinyurl.com/ppl5y

The Guru has spoken

[deerhunter]

showmethemoney, were you the guy that just called in to Cramer about Abercrombie. If so you heard him, good buy.

[madcowdisease]

Another thing I forgot to mention: ANF is currently or recently remodeling/ed many of their stores to look like the Manhatten store. They've ripped the wood planked floors out in favor of slate, added more speakers and glass enclosures, and more. If you haven't been lately it is of a more contemporary motif rather than their classic Adirondack look of yore. With judgement of the asthetics aside, though I like the old look better, one must consider this recent remodel and expansion of stores, at least the ones in NYC, have to be costing ANF considerable amounts of money and without a doubt this is affecting their bottom line. Perhaps another reason the stock didn't measure up to Q2 2005.

I believe, though don't have the facts on paper to back it up, that the bulk of the remodel is completed. Ergo, we can reasonably conclude that the following quarters should measure more favorably to last yrs compares.

I don't own this stock in particular and follow it tenuously so I am not sure what the disappointment was, whether it be revenues or EPS. If revenues then the above paragraphs may be for nought but if Wall St. considers the bottom line then the above should help to explain some of the short fall other than the fact Q2 2005 was a stellar quarter that is a tough act to follow.

Hope this helps.

[aiki14]

From a fundamental perspective, I'm a bit bearish as well, the business is subject to the vagaries of taste and the competition is fierce. I'd look to buy this on runs up, as the Guru says let it come to you, ride the wave and jump off before it hits the beach. No way should this be the only egg in the basket, too risky. Anecdotally, I have two teenage daughters and I'm not seeing the A&F stuff as obviously anymore on them or their friends, I see a lot of rip curl and quicksilver here, I don't know how representative that is, but for A&F I'll bet "Eddie WOULDN'T go" there. (bet my brah Pierre gets that reference). RIP E.A.

[showmethemoney]

Hey guys thanks for the great posts, I should say that this wont be the only stock in my portfolio, I also own MSFT, GW, MIG (which I bought at $5.00 and was about to sell at $11.15 yesterday a then bam It was down 20% just like that) and unfortunately SIRI. So maybe a split of ANF and PG, is a good bet or some JNJ, PEP. I think BRCM looks pretty attractive here to. Oh well thanks again for the posts guys. I will continue my homework, on my quest to make some MAD MONEY!!

[TheBullPicker]

If you have 3000, buy these four stocks nvda, tm, hmc, aapl. these are my current holdings and there are great.

[Will]

I say split it 3 ways and throw in a bank.
My suggestions would be JPM, BAC, and WB in that order.

I would wait for a pullback in the banks though, as they have become a little overheated the last week or two.

But will be a great bet once the fed stops.
Also if you are as bearish as I am, you should lower your small cap exposure, by selling either GW or MIG.

[optimus25]

Retail is risky in a slowing economy. A company like Abercrombie can weather the storm.

[optimus25]

I forgot to add, what's up with one of Cramer's old picks - VLCM. Its down over 30% today.

[TheBullPicker]

Cramers pumped RACK really hard to not to long ago. (I was actually in it a while ago and made some good money) But look what it did today

[optimus25]

RACK today = Ouch!!

[madcowdisease]

Retail is risky in a slowing economy. A company like Abercrombie can weather the storm.

Well said. ANF is on sale here. Don't expect it to have a huge bounce but I'd be a buyer here while it's down.

I forgot to add, what's up with one of Cramer's old picks - VLCM. Its down over 30% today.

Couldn't find anything in the brief overview of their earnings report but they did report last Friday. Wall St. must've heard something they didn't like. Perhaps they guided lower than analysts expected? Or, perhaps Cramer's lemmings all bailed at the same time. Tis the risk associated with a stock Cramer pumps.

[Will]

Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) today reported net sales of $230.0 million for the four-week period ended July 29, 2006, a 20% increase over last year's July net sales of $191.0 million. July comparable store sales increased 3% compared to the four-week period ended July 30, 2005.

[showmethemoney]

Well guys I split the 3 grand and went with ANF, and GME (gamestop) and had a very nice day from GME yesterday Im trying to build a descent mid-long term portfolio, I know most of you guys are "traders", but I have been cutting back on the trading lately (maybe its the condition of the market). Im almost there I think I just need to add a Defense stock.

ANF
MSFT
GME
GW

[madcowdisease]

Well guys I split the 3 grand and went with ANF, and GME (gamestop) and had a very nice day from GME yesterday Im trying to build a descent mid-long term portfolio, I know most of you guys are "traders", but I have been cutting back on the trading lately (maybe its the condition of the market). Im almost there I think I just need to add a Defense stock.

ANF
MSFT
GME
GW

Check out MO for defense and your 5th stock. You get a nice dividend with the potential for a breakup. On the plus side, Kraft which was the reason MO flatlined the first 7 months of 2006, is now picking up. In sum, decent potential for capital appreciation with a dividend to boot.

[Will]

Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) today reported net sales of $230.0 million for the four-week period ended July 29, 2006, a 20% increase over last year's July net sales of $191.0 million. July comparable store sales increased 3% compared to the four-week period ended July 30, 2005.


I was kinda hoping for bad numbers, so that I could add some more to my position, oh well, I guess a gain in value will suffice.

[optimus25]

Abercrombie & Fitch (NYSE: ANF) today reported net sales of $230.0 million for the four-week period ended July 29, 2006, a 20% increase over last year's July net sales of $191.0 million. July comparable store sales increased 3% compared to the four-week period ended July 30, 2005.

Nice move on ANF today. I chickened out as I felt that earnings might be flat and I thought the stock would move sub 50 again. PE still looks great.

How about ACAS this week Will. I heard Cramer give his blessing to ACAS in the lightning round.

[Will]

How about ACAS this week Will. I heard Cramer give his blessing to ACAS in the lightning round.

couldn't be happier with my portfolio right now.
It has rebounded nicely, with my Roth up about 8% on the year, not including the dividends from JPM and ACAS

[showmethemoney]

Hey Will, I saw that you had individual stocks in your Roth, if you dont mind me asking how many do you have, and do you hold any funds. I am kind of sceptacle (or nervous) about indvidual stocks in my Roth, So I just have funds. Is there certain criteria that must be met to earn a spot in your IRA.

Also are there any attractive funds you are looking at?

[Will]

Hey Will, I saw that you had individual stocks in your Roth, if you dont mind me asking how many do you have, and do you hold any funds. I am kind of sceptacle (or nervous) about indvidual stocks in my Roth, So I just have funds. Is there certain criteria that must be met to earn a spot in your IRA.

Also are there any attractive funds you are looking at?

My assets are currently split between a Roth and a regular margin account.
I have VFINX, JMCVX, UMBWX, and misc. stocks in my regular account.
I have 1 fund currently in my Roth, a short fund, GRZZX, and JPM, ACAS.
I use the other portion of my Roth for trading. With that said, I have only allowed about 15% to be used for trades in my Roth.

I have been a tad riskier with my Roth, for the simple fact that it is easier to flip a stock with no short-term capital gains tax. In my tax bracket, I am not charged long-term capital gains tax for regular taxable accounts, so I use my margin account for long-term mostly.

The requirements for my stock trades all year, have been:
PEG < 2.0
ROE > 10%
Price/Sales < 2.0
Price/Book < 2.0
Debt To Equity < 2.0
in a hot sector
with oversold conditions, i.e. Williams %R < -75, within the lower edge of the bollinger bands
and trending overall higher

I prefer a price per share < $10
but that is not necessary, I am sometimes willing to overlook shortcomings in some of these requirements, if another few are outstanding, with the exception of the oversold conditions.
I look for 10% then get out, and try to repeat. sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't

traded CIEN, GW, ANAD x2, PBW x2, TQNT successfully
and ARBX, F, GW, PBW unsuccessfully

The next fund I am looking to buy is a clean energy fund called PBW. I have owned it in my Roth 3 different times this year, and it looks to have found a bottom again.

sorry for the long post, just trying to help.