$100 oil by next year

[chinaman711]

T Boone Pickens was just on cnbc sticking to his est. of 100 dollar oil by next year. Every time Pickens is on cnbc SU has a good day as he has a large stake in SU. Looks like we might have another good day in oil stocks as earnings are coming out this week on many of them. HES COP and ASH report tomorrow. Good luck

[Stas1976]

T Boone Pickens was just on cnbc sticking to his est. of 100 dollar oil by next year. Every time Pickens is on cnbc SU has a good day as he has a large stake in SU. Looks like we might have another good day in oil stocks as earnings are coming out this week on many of them. HES COP and ASH report tomorrow. Good luck
What if it goes down ? Oil price is cyclical. You never know where is the end of current cycle.

[Lou]

yeah but he also said he wouldnt be shocked if it came back down, he backed off that statement of $100, he's bet'n on $80, and at some point your going to get profit taking

[chinaman711]

80 dollar oil would give the big oil companys another record qtr. The big problem will come this fall when someone has to deal with Iran. Do you really think they are going to let them produce nukes by the end of the year. Iran has made it clear what they intend to do. Geez we should have elected Kerry and everything would be ok yea right.

[chinaman711]

I would go with Pickens as he has been right for the last 5 years. When oil was 30 bucks he was calling for 50 dollar oil when it hit 50 he called for 70 dollar oil. Now he is calling for 100 dollar oil as oil companys are puting out record earnings. Looking for cvx to make another new 52 week high today. SU 9 points off its 52 week high looks like a great play on earnings and the future imo. Good luck

[BuyOnDips]

If the China economy slows down, oil will eventually fall because demand will fall. If Iran gets attacked, I think oil might go over $100 for a few days, but I think it would eventually fall again depending on how the war goes. High oil prices can cause a world wide recession, causing the demand for oil to go down and eventually the price of oil will fall.

[chinaman711]

imo oil will fall but that is a few years away. Best to trade this market buy on dips sell on gap up. Lots of money to be made on the way up and a fortune to be made if oil ever tanks. This week should be a no brainer for the oil companys with earnings coming out. Look at ESV today and watch HES ASH and COP tomorrow, Good luck

[chinaman711]

Picking up SU calls on this dip under 80. Just a trade into earnings.

[chinaman711]

SU back to 80 and cvx coming back too as it looks to go green soon.

[Lou]

and iran wont have nukes by the end of this year, its more like 5-7 years out and there is zero chance we attack them, zero

[Stas1976]

If the China economy slows down, oil will eventually fall because demand will fall. If Iran gets attacked, I think oil might go over $100 for a few days, but I think it would eventually fall again depending on how the war goes. High oil prices can cause a world wide recession, causing the demand for oil to go down and eventually the price of oil will fall.

Do you know how much of oil is consumed by China ? It is a 1/3 of US consumption. China produces more then 50% of the oil it consumes

The oil price is high 90% because of the USA.

http://static.flickr.com/52/189498853_2f0dbf9cdd.jpg?v=0

[chinaman711]

Yep the u.s. uses 25% of the worlds oil supply and we are not going to change. Another thing we won't do is turn that air conditioner down. Are we spoiled?

[chinaman711]

Right it won't be us but it may be the 1 country Iran is going to distroy. What have they got to lose when a bully says he is going to kick your ass and then cut your head off you might as well take care of the problem.

[BuyOnDips]

China is growing much faster than the USA even though their government is trying to slow down their economy. With gross domestic product increasing, on average, more than 8 percent annually since 1978, China has become a major player in the global economy. China used to be an exporter of oil as recently as 1993. Now they are a major importer of oil. So the demand for oil has gotten much higher in the world market. The head of BP said on CNBC today that oil prices are probably about 20% higher than they should be due to the problems in the Middle East and Africa.

The average American bitches about gas prices, but won't change their driving habits. I guess we point to the much higher prices in Europe(due to high taxes) and don't fell that bad. Eventually the USA will start to use ethanol. We should have followed Brazil when they decided to be oil independant back in the 1980s. But the oil lobby buys a lot of politicians and it wasn't profitable to do ethanol back then.

[Bman409]

and iran wont have nukes by the end of this year, its more like 5-7 years out and there is zero chance we attack them, zero



Well, I used to think there was zero chance of the US attacking Iran..

Now, I'm not so sure...

First of all, you've got Israel at war with Iran's proxy, Hezbollah.. that's a problem.

Secondly, that GW Bush is one crazy sunnavabitch, if you ask me

He's liable to do anything.

[chinaman711]

Iran is laughing all the way to the bank as they know if they can keep things stired up oil will go higher. Its all about oil and money and Iran knows how to keep the pot boiling. Look for Israel to step up the action and Iran to threaten to get involved. Damn none of this would have happened if Kerry was running the show.

[chinaman711]

al-Qaida Vows Reprisal for Israeli Attacks


Email this Story

Jul 27, 6:45 AM (ET)

By WILLA THAYER

CAIRO, Egypt (AP) - Al-Qaida's No. 2 leader warned in a new videotape released Thursday that the terrorist group would not stand idly by while Israeli bombardments "burn our brothers" in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip.

In the message broadcast by Al-Jazeera television, Ayman al-Zawahri, second in command to Osama bin Laden, said that al-Qaida now saw "all the world as a battlefield open in front of us."

The Egyptian-born physician said the Hezbollah and Palestinian battles against Israel would not be ended with "cease-fires or agreements." The fighting began last month following a Palestinian cross-border raid in which an Israeli soldier was captured, then expanded to Lebanon after Hezbollah militants captured two other soldiers in a raid earlier this month.

"The war with Israel does not depend on cease-fires. ... It is a Jihad for God's sake and will last until (our) religion prevails," al-Zawahri said. "We will attack everywhere."

Al-Zawahri wore a gray robe and white turban. A picture of the burning World Trade Center was on the wall behind him along with pictures of two other militants.

The Arab satellite station appeared not to have transmitted the entire tape, using instead selected quotes interspersed with commentary from an anchor.

"The shells and rockets ripping apart Muslim bodies in Gaza and Lebanon are not only Israeli (weapons), but are supplied by all the countries of the crusader coalition. Therefore, every participant in the crime will pay the price," al-Zawahri said.

[BuyOnDips]

I'm sure Iran is laughing all the way to the bank with the higher oil revenues. I think they are pretty upset that Israel is destroying Hizboolah. It's funny that Iran is calling for a cease fire now. I don't expect the USA to bomb the Iranian nuclear sites this year. Bush won't do it before elections. Bombing right before winter wouldn't be too bright either. You don't want heating costs going crazy during the heating season. I suspect if Iran doesn't come to agreements by next spring, bunker busting bombs will be dropping on their nuclear research buildings. Of course that could change depending on what happens in Iraq. Israel now has the capability of bombing Iran with their planes as well. Of course if Syria attacks Israel and the war spreads, we might as well bomb the sites in Iran. Diplomacy ain't gonna work(that's why N.Korea has nukes now). And the UN is a joke.

[chinaman711]

The UN needs someone like Colin Powell or Tommy Franks but of course that would never happen. VLO was a steal on the dip this morning. Almost everyday this week the big oil stocks have run up and then sold off and come right back. Sell on the open and buy them back in a 1/2 hour has worked all week. I sold aug 70 cvx calls on the open at .90 and bought them back for .65 30 minutes later. Did the same with su calls. Hope this trend continues for another week. Good luck

[chinaman711]

AP
Oil Prices Rise As Traders Watch Storm
Wednesday August 2, 4:30 am ET
By Tanalee Smith, Associated Press Writer
Oil Prices Rise As Traders Watch Caribbean Storm, Mideast Fighting


SINGAPORE (AP) -- Oil prices rose Wednesday as traders nervously watched a tropical storm in the Caribbean and the fighting in the Middle East, fearing supply threats.
Light sweet crude for September delivery was up 38 cents to US$75.29 a barrel in midafternoon Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

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September Brent rose 43 cents to US$76.32 a barrel at London's ICE Futures exchange.

Tropical Storm Chris has formed near the Leeward Islands in the Caribbean, raising traders' fears that it could strengthen and damage oil platforms and refineries along the Gulf Coast. And in the Middle East, there were few signs of a quick resolution to the escalating conflict. Last week's disruption in oil supply in Nigeria was also a factor in the prices.

"There are many issues that are supportive of strong prices," said Victor Shum, an energy analyst with Purvin & Gertz in Singapore. "However, barring any change in the geopolitical situation or a hurricane, I expect prices to stay around the mid-70s for the near term."

Traders were also awaiting a U.S. oil and gas inventory report due later Wednesday. While U.S. demand for natural gas is no doubt higher, analysts noted that the country has ample supplies. According to the Energy Department last week, U.S. has 2.76 trillion cubic feet of natural gas in underground storage. The five-year average for this time of year is 2.27 trillion cubic feet.

In other Nymex trading, natural gas futures were up 29.7 cents to US$7.871 per 1,000 cubic feet after surging 14 percent on Monday to settle at $8.211, the highest close since early February. Heating oil rose marginally to US$2.0850 a gallon and gasoline futures were up 1.38 cents to US$2.2900 a gallon.

Oil traders have been focused for nearly three weeks on the violence between Israel and Hezbollah guerrillas in Lebanon. Israel on Tuesday launched a major attack deep into Lebanon, and Hezbollah said its guerrillas were fighting Israeli commandos trapped inside a hospital in the eastern city of Baalbek early Wednesday.

Traders fear possible supply interruptions in the region. Iran, OPEC's No. 2 supplier, is a backer of Hezbollah and is in the midst of a diplomatic standoff with the United Nations over its nuclear program.

On Tuesday, Iranian President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad rejected a U.N. Security Council resolution that would give his nation until Aug. 31 to suspend uranium enrichment.

[Bman409]

Could happen by the end of the year, if Bush f's up the situation with Iran.


What's the chance of THAT happening???

LOL

(get your oil futures now, if you're wise)

[chinaman711]

What a day so far : ) oil going higher sweet

[madcowdisease]

What a day so far : ) oil going higher sweet

Sweet? This is bad for 90% of the populace. If you don't hold shares in an oil co. you aren't saying "sweet". This isn't good for our economy either.

[BuyOnDips]

I think Bush wouldn't attack until next year, unless Iran did something really stupid to provoke an attack. The elections are coming up, so I don't think he would attack then. I don't think he would attack before winter. You don't want oil going through the roof when winter starts(that would be a surprise attack). I think he'll give sanctions a chance to work. But they are probably a waste of time. Also Iraq is a mess and might turn into a civil war. Here's a good article on Iraq by Ralph Peters. I totally agree with his column.

http://www.frontpagemag.com/Articles/ReadArticle.asp?ID=23575

So I'd say a bombing of the Iranian nuke sites is at least 8 months from happening. Of course Israel now has the capability of bombing them with their planes now(its not a 1 way mission anymore), so they could attack at any time, but it would be much easier for the USA to do it. I'm almost certain Bush will attack them before he leaves office. He doesn't want that legacy of letting Iran have nukes that Bill Clinton has of letting North Korea have nukes.

If I were Israel, I'd bomb Iran's oil production so they couldn't sell any oil. The world would be pissed though and oil would go sky high, but Iran couldn't fund Hezbollah anymore and their shaky government couldn't stay in power long without oil money.

[madcowdisease]

Thank the heavens:

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=a0peXL4g6TbU&refer=home

[chinaman711]

Oil coming back a little now down .36 at 75.45. Oil stocks starting to move higher again. SU back to 83 looks to go green soon HES just went green CVX green too FTO looks good and talk of mexico's oil production falling. Always something to get oil to go higher.

[chinaman711]

Oil really coming back looks to open over 76 bucks on BP shut down. Could be a great day in the oil patch FTO CVX SU VLO HES MRO who will be the star this week FTO on earnings?

[chinaman711]

Yep looks like a great day so far. Pre market cvx up .72 vlo up .98 and fto up .79 looking good at 8:10am.

[aiki14]

Everybody but BP looking good. 400k bbl/day off line for probably months, rusty pipe in AK.

[chinaman711]

FTO nice earnings report. SU looking good too


Frontier Oil Reports Most Profitable Quarter in Company History
Monday August 7, 8:30 am ET


HOUSTON, Aug. 7 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Frontier Oil Corporation (NYSE: FTO - News) today announced record quarterly net income of $143.3 million, or $1.26 per diluted share for the quarter ended June 30, 2006, compared to net income of $66.0 million or $0.58 per diluted share, for the quarter ended June 30, 2005. For the six months ended June 30, 2006, Frontier reported net income of $201.0 million, or $1.78 per diluted share, compared to net income of $100.4 million, or $0.89 per diluted share, for the six months ended June 30, 2005. All current and prior period share related numbers have been revised to reflect the 2-for-1 stock split effective June 26, 2006.
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Frontier continues to benefit from outstanding product crack spreads as well as wide crude oil differentials. The diesel crack spread remained unseasonably strong increasing to $23.49 per barrel for the most recent quarter compared to $15.51 per barrel for the second quarter of 2005. The gasoline crack spread increased to $20.92 per barrel for the quarter ended June 30, 2006, compared to $12.50 per barrel for the same period in 2005. The Cheyenne Refinery light/heavy spread increased slightly to an average $15.19 per barrel for the second quarter of 2006 compared to $14.15 per barrel for the second quarter of 2005. Similarly, the WTI/WTS spread increased slightly to $5.04 per barrel for the recent quarter compared to $4.67 per barrel for the second quarter of 2005.

Frontier's crude oil charge for the second quarter of 2006 averaged 153,972 barrels per day (bpd), slightly below the average 156,352 bpd the Company charged in the second quarter of 2005. The most recent quarter's crude charge was reduced by approximately 4,200 bpd as a result of a diesel hydrotreater shutdown at the Cheyenne Refinery for the conversion to ultra-low sulfur diesel. Despite the reduced throughput, Frontier reported record operating income before depreciation of $232.3 million for the three months ended June 30, 2006.

Frontier's Chairman, President and CEO, James Gibbs, commented, "Our results continue to be outstanding. The second quarter of 2006 was our most profitable quarter ever, which allowed us to continue our share repurchase program and execute a 2-for-1 stock split during the quarter. Our crack spreads and crude oil differentials remain incredibly strong and we believe our third quarter 2006 results will be excellent."

For the three months ending June 30, 2006, Frontier generated $155.3 million in cash before changes in working capital and $211.9 million after changes in working capital, while investing approximately $37.7 million in capital expenditures and repurchasing approximately 1.1 million shares of its common stock. Frontier's cash balance of $350.0 million exceeded debt by $200.0 million as of June 30, 2006. There were no borrowings under the Company's revolving credit facility. For the six months ended June 30, 2006, Frontier generated $232.2 million in cash before changes in working capital and $162.1 million after changes in working capital, while investing $74.8 million in capital expenditures and repurchasing approximately 1.5 million shares of its common stock.

The second quarter 2006 results include an after-tax inventory gain of approximately $23.6 million or $0.21 per diluted share, compared to a loss of $1.0 million, or $0.01 per diluted share, for the second quarter of 2005. The six months ended June 30, 2006 include an after-tax inventory gain of approximately $23.6 million or $0.21 per diluted share compared to a gain of $18.4 million, or $0.16 per diluted share for the same period in 2005. The most recent quarter results also include a $5.0 million, or $0.03 per diluted share (after-tax) accrual for the cleanup of a waste water treatment pond located on land historically leased from an adjacent landowner.

[chinaman711]

2006

Oil in the House of Mirrors
By Sam Hopkins


After a long stretch chasing the real reason for high oil prices in big oil's media house of mirrors, consumers should realize that this weekend's shutdown of Alaska's main pipeline is the most frightening face of supply instability.

Lebanon-Israel, Venezuela, Iran, Nigeria... We track the news every day, and the geopolitical picture is seldom rosy. But given the announcement of Alaska's output slowing down to half of capacity, it is clear that peacetime oil supply is just as worrisome as that which is threatened by war.

The prevailing market hysteria would have us believe that if only those Iraqi sectarians and Nigerian rebels would cool their jets, the black gold in those areas would surge forth to quench the world's fuel needs and prices would sulk back down to 20 dollars a barrel. Ha.

If corrosion in the placid terrain of Alaska was allowed to reach a level where an entire pipeline had to be shut down for weeks or months, how can we assume that Middle Eastern transport will be reliable, if and when insurgent sabotage becomes a thing of the past?

Uncertainty of supply has many aspects, and the geopolitical risk factor is only one facet of a multi-pronged obstacle between oil fields and the end users of petroleum products. Some put the "terrorist premium" so high that it accounts for the entire increase in the price of a barrel over the past several years. The late 90s and gasoline that was under a dollar a gallon was not only the result of relatively peaceful times in oil-producing nations: it was the upside of a curve that many still refuse to acknowledge.

[chinaman711]

[Click Here for Your FREE Report]

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Militant attacks in Nigeria have reduced that country's oil output by 1/3. That hurts. But Mexico's Cantarell field - discovered in 1976 - peaked in 2004. Its drop-off in production is zipping along at 8% per year, and the gap is not likely to be closed within proximity to the United States. At least not as long as underinvestment reigns within the US petroleum sector.

After Hurricane Katrina, heavy salvos of big oil activism have rained legislative ammunition down on Capitol Hill. We need to open more federal waters to offshore drilling. We need to drill in Alaska's wildlife reserve. This will solve our problems, right?

Well, if record-breaking profits are being hauled in and oil majors defend their windfall by citing massive investment in new supply, why can't they keep rust in check? This is not a new problem, and not a natural disaster. It's merely nature.

But manmade market conditions have made this a $2 shock and another step up in the inevitable escalator of crude oil prices.

Instability's Coat of Many Colors

You probably don't feel a lot of sympathy for producers when you're fueling up for your commute. But while giant fields like Saudi Arabia's Ghawar and Mexico's Cantarell fade into the twilight of their production, you and your government will be asked for a helping hand time and time again.

Recently, Russia has taken the lead in reversing the roles of maker and taker. In negotiations with the European Union regarding "energy security" and what it means, Russia did not allow itself to be vilified after choking its natural gas line to Ukraine (consequently turning down the pressure and supply to every country west of Kiev).

Rather, Russia took the "this hurts me more than it hurts you" approach, casting itself as the insecure party in a world where it needs to be insured that it will always have a market for its resources. "Our supply is not unstable," goes Moscow's convenient new tune, "we just have to manipulate it every once in a while to make sure you consumers don't take it for granted."


And everybody's favorite cartel, OPEC, is now chirping the same melancholy melody. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries released its long-term strategy in March 2006, with several pages devoted to demand scenarios over the coming years. The attitude is one of insecurity in the face of rising biofuel and alternative energy demand.

As well it should be.

The volatility of petroleum as lifeblood of 21st century civilization has never been more in doubt than today, where we stand at $77 per barrel. Developing countries follow the lead of established economic powers - to the horror of the latter, who see their own supply in jeopardy for the first time since hydrocarbons supplanted coal as industry's fodder of choice.

[chinaman711]

Oil just took off and went green after being down all morning. Looks like that BP pipeline won't be fixed until jan 07. Here comes 80 dollar oil imo Good luck

[chinaman711]

Well that didn't last long as oil goes lower again but it was a nice pop in some of the oil stocks. Great for traders

[chinaman711]

FTO and MRO having a great day so far and VLO pretty good day too. SU and CVX up a little. FTO looks to be the best of the bunch today with MRO right behind. FTO up 2 MRO up 2.40 good luck

[chinaman711]

Oil numbers out imo oil stocks going higher and watch nat gas stocks they could really take off. If MRO gets thru 92 should see 100 in this rally. Bought some calls on the oil stocks as they llok to run as oil goes higher.

[chinaman711]

Looks like another buy the dip day in the oil patch. ------------------------

AP
Oil Prices Drop Almost $1 a Barrel
Thursday August 10, 8:00 am ET
Oil Prices Drop Almost $1 a Barrel After Thwarted Attacks Raise Worries About Demand


LONDON (AP) -- Crude oil prices fell nearly $1 a barrel Thursday after thwarted attacks on airplanes led many carriers to cancel flights. Security concerns could depress consumer confidence and dampen demand for jet fuel in coming weeks.
ADVERTISEMENT


Light, sweet crude for September delivery dropped 85 cents to $75.50 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange by midday in Europe. September Brent crude futures on London's ICE Futures fell 98 cents to $76.30 a barrel.

"The price fall this morning is on the back of the airline bomb plot, which is negative (for) jet demand and consumer confidence," said Olivier Jakob at Petromatrix.

Gasoline futures dropped 4 cents to $2.1280 a gallon. Heating oil futures fell 3 cents to $2.0750 a gallon, and natural gas futures lost 15 cents to $7.500 per 1,000 cubic feet.

But traders felt the fact that there was no actual attack would limit the price impact, with underlying sentiment for higher prices focused on lower gasoline inventories, geopolitical worries and production cuts from a pipeline shutdown in Alaska and unrest in Nigeria.

In Nigeria, officials said gunmen seized two foreign oil workers Thursday amid the surge of violence targeting the petroleum industry in Africa's oil giant.

Southern Nigeria, where most of the nation's crude is pumped, has seen rising violence against the petroleum industry. The kidnappings and attacks have forced a nearly 20 percent reduction of Nigeria's usual 2.5 million barrel daily production.
--

[chinaman711]

Picked up some dips in pre market as i think oil will come back. Oil down 1.02

[chinaman711]

CVX coming back down .05 and looks to go green soon as most of the oil stocks are coming back. Buy the dips

[chinaman711]

CVX and FTO green and the rest are off their lows and looking good. MRO looks to go green soon and make another run thru 92. HES, SU and VLO slowly coming back. Good luck

[chinaman711]

Buy the dips as they are on sale last hour.

[chinaman711]

HES having a good day CVX and VLO up a little SU down a little and mro down a buck plus. HES looks the best today. Keep an eye on SRGG just hit 1.07 and the last time it ran it went to 1.48. Good luck

[chinaman711]

Oil stocks just picked up with cvx and hes hitting new day highs and su going green.

[chinaman711]

Oil coming back and oil stocks just took a nice jump.

[chinaman711]

That was a real nice 5 minute rally. Oil falling again

[optimus25]

Money is just sloshing around moving from sector to sector. Analysts expecting money to stay in energy and move into tech, healthcare, and biotech. Not a bad thesis. We need market leadership.

[chinaman711]

Yep and right now it looks like money is going into techs. Im doing well with aapl and brcm and looking at rmbs sify and a few others that have been beaten down. Im out of all my big oil calls and just day trade them off there lows. I think oil stocks will be back in play in about 6-8 weeks when the earnings game will start again and as long as oil stays above 65 dollars the big oil companys will do well. Now if oil takes off again due to storms or the middle east there might be some good trades imo. Right now the action is in techs. Good luck

[chinaman711]

By the way XING is a tech stock : )