This Upcoming Monday and Wed.

[zyzzyva57]

Put yourself in Master Cramer's shoes since I guess this upcoming week he will still be on vacation and reveal onto us mere mortals what to expect Monday and Wed--Remember you cannot be one of those Talking Heads on the day side of CNBC hiding behind such genuine Wall Street jibberish as the Reverse Yield Curve...Provide me with some real unique insight until my Master returnth...I, I need a Wisdom Fix, bud! Last week's "methadone" didn't cut it, bud...

[NATHAN LLOYD]

There are three decent sectors this summer, and I think the others are crap.

1) energy

2) metals

3) health

[aiki14]

I would have thought the alt fuel stuff would be good with the oil prices and the political turmoil going on, but I think folks are a little burned out on ethanol hype and until these guys sell something at a profit the stocks will be held down to a reasonable degree short term (0-3 mo's). Maybe still a good play for the longer term but the real profits are with the people holding them since early this year. That's not really germaine to the question is it?
OK then UDTT and ABAX on monday for a short term and a long term respectively. If I can drag myself out of bed on monday and follow the ticker I might pull the trigger on UDTT. We'll see.

[soundlanguage]

OK then UDTT and ABAX on monday for a short term and a long term respectively. If I can drag myself out of bed on monday and follow the ticker I might pull the trigger on UDTT. We'll see.

... Why bother dragging yourself out of bed? Just stay up until the market opens, do your trade then sleep it off afternoon once the markets close up shop until its turns into the afternoon of the 4th!

Hey there's no rules, right? Be as "irresponsible" as you can esp on these long holidays, when you can responsibly manage it anyway! ((lol))

hope everyone has a fun & relaxing holiday!

[Seamus]

After the Friday sidways move, my opinion is the market will stay in sidways to down mode.
Reading the feds 8 sentances released Thursday, sentance 5, 6, 7 have me concerned:
Sentance 5: However, the high level of resource utilization and of the prices of energy and other commodities have the potential to sustain inflation pressures.
Sentance 6: Although the moderation in the growth of aggregate demand should help to limit inflation pressures over time, the Committee judges that some inflation risks remain
Sentance 7: The extent and timing of any additional firming that may be needed to address these risks will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information.

Talk about your Wall Street Jibberish! However I do read in it if commodities continue to increase, driving inflation up, they are not done hiking up rates.
Oil stocks, I still would like to see a pull back before adding to my position.
Metals, another pullback at least 6% before adding to my position.
Tech, not till the end of August
Medical, Keep my eyes out for bargins.
Defensive Stocks (Food, P&G), They started moving, if another two rate hikes happen it will be too late, and you wish your were in them.

I don't think that there will be any real good buys until possibly the end of the week. I also don't forsee any catalist to propel the market up either.

[Imperator]

transports and logistics!

[zyzzyva57]

YEEEE-GADS!! This forth we ain't even got a good hurricane in the works and already the oil companies have gas up to $2.95--With the furst hurricane, can you imagine what will happen to the oil sector?! People are driving about as if there is no problem...

How could you lose betting on the oil sector?

[Seamus]

The oil sector is such a game, I just wanted to point out in my post that I am waiting for a pull back to ADD to my position.

I agree that 2.95 we are really high right now and a near miss by a tropical depression earlier has left things high.
The only thing that can go wrong for the oil sector stocks is: we started to conserve, there are no hurricanes, California doesn't blow up another storage facility, The EPA decides that 50+ different blends of gas is a bad idea, Ethanol and other alternative fuels start to develope FAST, and people actually realize how much oil is available.

Lets start off that 40 million people traveled this weekend, so we are not conserving, too early in hurricane season to bet against one not coming in. California will have a refinery fire, they always do. EPA change their mindset, Nah. Speculation is out of the market, thus out of Ethanol. No one cares about all the oil sitting in current inventories, just look at the commoditieds. Someone is going to get wacked buying at those prices.

[zyzzyva57]

What the oil speculators get away with is vile and vicious--but legal

Thinking as our Master stresses: make your money this way and then do a Gates-Buffet with some of your loot so you can sleep at night and the world and the press will go gah-gah over you

Whatever price you can buy Master Cramer's Best of Breeds in energy Monday will be worth a ton more by Jan 1 after we get hit by 3 or 4 hurricanes--WHICH WE WILL--Even if we have no hurricanes, the oil speculators will still find a way to drive up oil to $80+ per barrel by 1-1-06...Look at what is happening with even a peaceful summer

Here is his shopping list for Monday:
http://madmoney.thestreet.com/index.cfm?page=bestbreed

[NATHAN LLOYD]

Oil is overpriced.

Americans are just plain stupid. Most of them that went on vacation this year probably got a second home mortgage to pay for it, or they had to get another credit card at a higher interest rate because they have three still maxed out since Christmas. Inflation has outpaced wages by about 2 to one since 1980, and we've increased in production by about 2 to one since 1980. Who's taking these profits? The companies, and that is why they're getting record earnings. I'm honestly kind of excited to watch for the earnings to start falling because I'm pretty sure that the consumer is going to crack with the housing market this year.

I think gold is going towards 800 because the dollar value is falling. Our fed can't hold off the record trade and budget deficits with his whimpy quarter point hikes. Bernanke did his hikes while talking dovish, and we wonder why the dollar didn't increase in value. Weak fed equals record gold prices.

[aiki14]

Oil is overpriced.

Americans are just plain stupid. Most of them that went on vacation this year probably got a second home mortgage to pay for it, or they had to get another credit card at a higher interest rate because they have three still maxed out since Christmas. Inflation has outpaced wages by about 2 to one since 1980, and we've increased in production by about 2 to one since 1980. Who's taking these profits? The companies, and that is why they're getting record earnings. I'm honestly kind of excited to watch for the earnings to start falling because I'm pretty sure that the consumer is going to crack with the housing market this year.

I think gold is going towards 800 because the dollar value is falling. Our fed can't hold off the record trade and budget deficits with his whimpy quarter point hikes. Bernanke did his hikes while talking dovish, and we wonder why the dollar didn't increase in value. Weak fed equals record gold prices.

Nate, you're sounding a tad bitter lately. While I am a firm believer that you'll never go broke underestimating the intelligence of the populace (H.L.Mencken) it is still pretty cynical to paint with such a broad brush. You're clearly smart enough to know (but maybe young enough not to have fully grasped) that you can make money no matter what's going on big picture. It might serve you well to lose a bit of the angst and make use of the situation as it exists rather than miserate over it's existence. The world is a pretty great place and the american people are just like everybody else (although their attitudes are a bit skewed by isolation and ethnocentrism put forth by our politico's) in trying to get by as best they can. A positive outlook even in the face of so much nonsense is not only possible but almost mandatory for true success.
Maybe I am just feeling positive cause I have been very fortunate in things of late, realizing of course the harder I work the luckier I get (Richard Templar).
I suggest a good read for you and anyone who wants to have the vacations and such without the multiple mortgages, "The Millionaire Next Door" or "The Millionaire Mind" both by Dr. Richard Templar. They describe how first generation millionaires have many commonalities in their methods and behaviors. Live by them and prosper.

[NATHAN LLOYD]

I'm up more than 40% since May via shorting the market. I don't like looking at things through blind optimism like most do. I enjoy being cyinical. If you're around next year, we'll see if I'm right about earnings going below estimates in the third and fourth quarter of this year. It's hard to be optimistic when I look at the big picture with realism. That is why I call it blind optimism.

Your advice is noted, and I'd like to read one of those books sometime. I'm reading about value right now because I know shorting doesn't always work. If you can time shorting and buying opportunities your profits will be way better than just trying to time buying opportunities, obviously.

[Lou]

Ive read the millionaire mind, to me its very basic stuff, dont buy high end cloths, buy a used car, invest in youself, etc. Problem with Americans is they cant always live by the basic stuff. We'd rather finance everything and live beyond our means.

[aiki14]

Ive read the millionaire mind, to me its very basic stuff, dont buy high end cloths, buy a used car, invest in youself, etc. Problem with Americans is they cant always live by the basic stuff. We'd rather finance everything and live beyond our means.

I agree with you, it's basic stuff, but Templar puts it in a good package. It reaffirms my basic philosophy so I like it (not really unbiased huh?).

[zyzzyva57]

I am going to set a tight Stop-Sell today, because gawd only know what the market will be like Monday--probably light trading, but what direction will the herds run in if they stampede

Watching all the mad driving so far this 4th, wish I had a million dollars to load up on energy...The "Cramers" will make a boat load of loot on oil through April if they buy now

I agree: live basically, but feast on Man's craziness to live even better, basically

[aiki14]

I'm up more than 40% since May via shorting the market. I don't like looking at things through blind optimism like most do. I enjoy being cyinical. If you're around next year, we'll see if I'm right about earnings going below estimates in the third and fourth quarter of this year. It's hard to be optimistic when I look at the big picture with realism. That is why I call it blind optimism.

Your advice is noted, and I'd like to read one of those books sometime. I'm reading about value right now because I know shorting doesn't always work. If you can time shorting and buying opportunities your profits will be way better than just trying to time buying opportunities, obviously.

You're up 40% since may, how can you not be optimistic? The big picture is making you money, it's not whether its going up or down, or that the inmates are running the asylum, it's that you figured it out and can play it to your advantage. Dispassionately bringing your analysis to bear and profitting is the goal. Emotion will not serve you, intellect will. Berating the rubes for blind optimism is a waste of energy and makes you look like a whiner.
What big picture are you looking at that has you so down on the future in light of your making 40% in a month? The markets are going to continue to do what made you a big score and you want to change things? I'm missing something.

[zyzzyva57]

I am not down or up...I am a cynical realist who more and more believes in the Chaos Theory and Randomness...I actually thoroughly enjoy Master Cramer and Wall Street...Both are a total hoot and confirmation daily of my world view...Actually, I am a Newbie at this on a Learning Curve that gets better, but I still make a lot of stupid mistakes--My worse problem is the desire to hold Falling Knives...By gawd, I am going to set Stop Sells to force myself to dump out of a stock: better to buy back in than hold and hope!

[optimus25]

I am not down or up...I am a cynical realist who more and more believes in the Chaos Theory and Randomness...I actually thoroughly enjoy Master Cramer and Wall Street...Both are a total hoot and confirmation daily of my world view...Actually, I am a Newbie at this on a Learning Curve that gets better, but I still make a lot of stupid mistakes--My worse problem is the desire to hold Falling Knives...By gawd, I am going to set Stop Sells to force myself to dump out of a stock: better to buy back in than hold and hope!

Again, investor psychology. We create a connection with money which causes us to hold on to losing investments or to not sell gaining investments for the fear of missing out on profits. In my short 7 years experience in investing I have done my fair share of reading. The best investors (ie Warren Buffett, Peter Lynch, & the Graham crew) have all made money on DD and fundamentals. I know there are also others out there in the technical arena that make money buying and selling overbought and oversold conditions, and making their 10% trades. If you separate yourself from the everyday market movements and align yourself to a bigger picture (ie. investing in stocks is the best way to grow your money), you'll do just fine.

I've had problem with falling knives back in 2001 & 2002. Held those maggots until 2004. The problem with these falling stocks is that you have to be patient. I've gotten lucky of late on such stocks as Merck, which I bought during the whole VIOXX hubub, made plenty of green going against the crowd...took two years of patience though.

[zyzzyva57]

My first Falling Knife was "cpst." Oh, Master Cramer a year ago huffed and puffed this stock as if it was the next Google. I bought and held and then it finally dawned on me, "Hey, you got yourself a genuine Falling Knife." Thought I had learned, and then what did I do? Bought "cnxt" and held tight as it sagged and sagged and Cramer "Googled" it...Then about the time, I realized Master Cramer had gone silent on "cnxt," it hit me: "Boy, you got yourself another one of thar Falling Knives!" Hopefully, I have learned to enjoy Cramer and watch out for him puffing stocks as ad separators for the "Scottrades." I guess it is all Newbie Real World Training you cannot get just reading about...

[chinaman711]

Look for a move into silver and uranium too

[Seamus]

So much for the sideways theory on Monday.
Oil > 74 a barrel, & COP still has one of the lowest PE 6.74
Minerals are racheting up, FCX 5.63% today!

Concern with the industrial stocks that I track, all up but not worth talking about. Nathan must have spooked the investors into those markets!

Does it continue on Wednesday? Or are profits going to be pulled?

[NATHAN LLOYD]

You're up 40% since may, how can you not be optimistic? The big picture is making you money, it's not whether its going up or down, or that the inmates are running the asylum, it's that you figured it out and can play it to your advantage. Dispassionately bringing your analysis to bear and profitting is the goal. Emotion will not serve you, intellect will. Berating the rubes for blind optimism is a waste of energy and makes you look like a whiner.
What big picture are you looking at that has you so down on the future in light of your making 40% in a month? The markets are going to continue to do what made you a big score and you want to change things? I'm missing something.

Good point Aiki. I did have a problem. I got so determined to short by making so much that I didn't switch into bull mode quick enough. I was up 60% in the middle of June, and lost 20% during the rally. I guess that is what I was upset about. It's not any one else's fault but my own that I didn't flip when I knew I should have. I appreciate your analysis of things. I did lose my head to emotions for a while.

It's not the big picture in the third and fourth quarter that I need to be concerned with now. I expect a lot of companies to be doing really well in earnings this quarter. Mainly, I'm thinking about energy and commodities.

I like NXG, EZM, NBR, SU, GG, COP, NEM and ASPV=defensive play. I think the dollar is weakenning and that gold is going to see records sometime soon. I do expect a cool down in oil, but not much of one this summer. I'll try to quit being so pessimistic about things all the time. I expect a slight bull market until the beginning of October because the fed does need to chill in August to let the housing market have a soft landing. Also, the institutions will want to be fully invested before the end of their fiscal year (Sept 30).