whats the deal with this market?

[clavocat]

anyone know, is this just choppy or is this how it ALWAYS is, cuz i started trading in february and i just cant win, i got about 15k after losing 5k with mutual funds an all that ****, i covered my shorts today for LEV after a market maker F'ed me, then xing took a dump...any advice, its the most exciting thing for me, but losing is just taking me to new lows, i KNOW ill win in this market eventually but anyone have any advice short term? should i just take a week off or should i take months off and just read and read, or should i stick it into a long term investment to at least give me some of my cash back? any advice on good stocks for long term, about 2 months...its making me nautious but i wont give up, and i dont know if thats a good thing or a bad thing :confused: :mad: sorry i needed to vent out and try an get some answers...

[David411]

I started investing in March, 4900 into my account, got up to 5700 in 2 months, then this bear thing started and I fell as low as 4400 (I know not that bad), so yesterday after that Xing news I made it back to 4919, and I was very tempted to pull out then, and sit at the sidelines, but now that XING shat the bed today, and im back down to 4700, I wanna stay in and try to make some money back, especially since i got in Toyota at 117 which has since fallen to around 100, but is on the rise big time, I have a feeling TM might save me (by save I mean, get my money back!)

[clavocat]

see im not bad at this stuff, i just made some mistakes (which ive learned from) and i bought all mutual funds and they made me alot then tanked, so i pulled out of 2/3...which hurt me biggggggg time, stupid me stupid me, i lost on LOUD, SU, GWGO, CKEI, HOM, XING, LEV i won on GG twice, im winning on TOL and losing on URBN some which are shorts... im in the house of painnn but here is my strategy to get ahead, tell me what you guys think


Ive read Begginers guide to daytrading by toni turner, and half way through short term trading in the new stock market

but my future books include:

Beginners guide to short term trading-toni turner
Cramers sane investing in an insane world
Cramers confessions of a street addict
Technical analysis for dummies
Then i think im gonna get rule the freaking markets, suggested by nathan Lloyd

then in fall semester im taking macroeconomics, microeconomics, investing and intro to business....i think these should help my view of the market and the books should help me with trading

Then i signed up for a trading seminar, so i hope this will help me ALOT!!!


any other advice would be appreciated, as im kinda stressful right now :(

[NATHAN LLOYD]

I was so ready to short XING, but I kind of feel bad doing that when people are long for it in here. When Chinaman said all the shorts were gone, it seemed like a prime time to short XING.

Never hold through earnings.

That's almost like trading rule #1.

Start with one stock at a time and take a profit when you get one--even if it's only been a couple of hours. If it goes further, you still have a profit. It will make you feel better to take the win. Slowly build up to longer time spans and risker trades if you want. It's better to play from the safe side until you get stung then to play on the risky side till you get a good play.

[Stas1976]

I invested some money on March in commodity (Uranium mostly). It gave me 20% in 2 months. I was too greedy and didn't sell anything and bought copper stocks on their high. Copper stocks fell down 30%. I didn't sell anything and buy a way more on the very bottom. Yesterday, I made 10% in one day on FCX(95% of my total holdings). So I am +7% since March. Not bad for the beginner. My take is to play with commodity (FCX (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=FCX), PCU (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=PCU)) until end of the summer and then switch to MSFT,HPQ,APPL. It is for today

[grassferret]

In my humble opinion I suggest that you buy a book or two on short term trading. Technical analysis really helps you out. Buying and knowing when to sell and make a profit is key. It also teaches you how to keep your losses to a minimum while maximizing your profits. The one thing I can say, which has proven to help me very much so, is DON'T BE GREEDY. When your up big, and you already decided on an entry and exit point, don't try and stay in there for the extra few points. Realize that you are leaving some profit behind, but be happy with the profitable stock you chose. You can always find new stocks, make new profits, and find new gems. Hope that helps a bit.

mr. GF

[Seamus]

A couple things that I see in here that might help.

1) Taking a week or month off isn't the solution, unfortunately homework and a feel for the economy watching the Fed's and earning reports every day gives me a heads-up on what to kind of expect. (I got luck and expected this move today)
2) Trading around core positions (A Cramer show covered this) has been inching my profits up. There haven't been too many rallies like Thursday to do this, however when I was up 8% on HAL, 10% on FCX, 6% on COP, 4% on TM sell some and keep those profits for future buying.
3) David mentioned that he was waiting for TM to return to 117! Holly cow! Don't buy all at one time, and don't buy when the stock is ratcheting up. I thought I was unfortunate sitting at 107, however I was able to double down at 96 and sell at a profit once things hit high 104's today.
4) Patience, I listed some of my favorite big caps above, I won't buy back into them for some time probably, I will wait for them to come down again. Cramer doesn't do the charting thing, (stock charts.com has a good explanation) I do a hybrid. Look at RSI, MACD, and company news/financial for upcoming momentum.
5) Big caps, unless the whole sector is moving, try to find that best of breed. Then sometimes they are down and out like JNJ for "overpaying" on Pfizer Consumer Healthcare. Below 59, RSI below 40 could be an opportunity, they may profit from the deal, and people thinking we are going into recession see this as a safe play.
Terex (21.32 multiple) #2 is another one that I can’t figure out this week compared to CAT (16.81 Multiple). I would not buy into Terex! Either CAT is a deal (with a RSI at 60), or Terex is overpriced. A couple weeks ago CAT was sitting with the RSI in the high 20’s. This is all you have to go on with no news, do you pull the trigger? Best of breed you could.
6) Be honest with your stock picks and yourself. Can you convince someone else like the people here on the board why you think that stock will go up? If you can back it up with solid facts, buy it!

[NATHAN LLOYD]

2) Trading around core positions (A Cramer show covered this) has been inching my profits up. There haven't been too many rallies like Thursday to do this, however when I was up 8% on HAL, 10% on FCX, 6% on COP, 4% on TM sell some and keep those profits for future buying.

This is really great if you have enough $ to do this. I would have to trade around just one stock. I was up 60% and now I'm up 40% since May. I lost 20% after the rallys started because I figured I could still short some stocks if they're multiples are way overshot. I learned the hard way that MM's control these, and they don't have much volume. The stock moved wherever only one MM wanted it to. Crappy stocks went up the same with the rally as, but I could have waited for them to fall. I closed a couple shorts at the top...a really horrible way to play them. It's a learning experience to say the least. The last couple days I quit shorting and went long SU and JNJ for about 2%. I didn't stay in SU long because I just wanted a win. It had been about 2 weeks since I had won. I also closed JNJ out today at 60.27 before it fell this afternoon.

I do like how you doubled down low on TM and got out with a profit. This is a strategy I've played with, but haven't mastered yet. You have a plan this way. When the price gets away from you, you look for a bottom to use your other half position on. Then you have to wait for it to get back into your lower basis range and take a profit. You could actually do this with only half of your money until you left the stock with a profit, which would be a great learning experience if you could get out of TM at $117.

[Seamus]

I agree, to trade around a position takes $ our just the 7, 11$ cost will knock out your profit %. I find it a wash or useless to trade less than $1,000 at a time.

I will admit that TM I got lucky. I had a chance to get into it in the low 90's before it ran to the stratosphere of 120 something. I like the company and the cars, it just has that extra dollar to yen component that needs to be watched. So I watched it fall and even told others at work I liked it under 100. Against my own judgment at 107 I thought it was going to slow and bought a position. Well it kept falling and the news about the market became very pessimistic. At 96 I figured it wasn’t a broke company, people will continue to buy their cars Ford / GM are not going to take market share so a long position wouldn’t be that bad a play, double down after what looks more like a bottom is the way to go, and it played out.

Kind of like blackjack, if you are betting 5 a hand and lose, bet 10 the next hand and you may win back your 5, or be out 15. keep doubling until you win, hit the table limit or run out of money! (only on good companies)