The question now is..where do we go from here ?

[oldboldpilot]

I don't think I have ever witnessed a big up day without an equally big profit taking day the next day.....and this will be a friday. For every action, there is an equal and oppostie RE action !!
The question is..... where from here ? Do you believe the Fed will pause any time soon ? I believe today's big up market had more to do with the end of the quarter and funds trying to boost their numbers than it had to do with enthusiasm over the market's direction through the end of this year but....that's just my opinion.
The guru's keep touting big caps and yet for all practical purposes, they have stood still or worse so what do you put your money in...or do you sit on the sidelines and observe this summer's doldrums ?

[Lou]

if the rally holds on friday we continue thru july and some of aug..the large caps all report in july, id expect their profits to be strong..financials will lead us over the next month...if not its still choppy...i think we have a strong july and then head back down in sept/oct and have a rally at the end of nov/into dec

[Seamus]

Lou,
I hope that you have called it, things will be ugly if there is a sell off tomorrow. I would need to join it and regroup at the bottom, then let the summer drag out of moving sideways.

[krazykowboy]

Okie dokie, i gotta say that mr. oldboldpilot jest bout hit er on the head, jest think ya off by a day er two. Here's ya a morsel ta chew on, jest sumthin I read over on MSN today.

Makes perty good cents ta me..........


The big gains came despite a 1.4% increase in the price of gold (to $588.90) and a 1.8% increase in crude oil to $73.52

What's not known is whether the rally occurred because there were a lot of short-sellers forced to unwind positions by buying shares.

Another issue raised by CNBC's Bob Pisani: Did the Fed decision give money managers the cover to buy stocks for end-of-quarter window-dressing. Money managers don't like to show big cash positions at the end of a quarter

Many money managers and stock experts see the selling pressure that hit the market in late May and early June resuming after the July 4 holidayall of thats sumthin to think bout
today was a good day but it might be smart to put stops on them stocks or sell sum of dem in da mornin
that way ya still got sum if they kep goin up and iffin they don't ya gotta chance to buy em back later at a lower price

while yer waitin for the FED ta quit ya kin git a nice return on a CD, heck 5% beats losin or sittin still

i might be krazy but i think uncle ben gots another 1/4 or two up his sleeve myself seems the FED always overstays thar welcome !!

jest my 2 cents

[NATHAN LLOYD]

I already said on another thread we're going down in July starting the first day after vacation. Gold and oil will keep us going tomorrow.

I think tech has already had its day though. Did you see the news about AAPL.

Remember the fundies need to show a profit at the end of the quarter. After that, July 5th, they will jet out of anything risky.

They've got one day to work a good spin. Their MM's will be helping with big ask orders. I say we're flat tomorrow and start to fall fast on July 5th.

[Maverick]

The CPI and other economic data will be the underlying key factor on the market since that will be the determining factor on the Fed rate decision.

I think the BIGGEST factor, at least for the summer, is the hurricane situation. I have been told that water in the Gulf of Mexico is 3 degrees warmer than last summer's warm water temperature at this time. So there is potential for another huge season of hurricanes.

The offshore oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico still haven't recovered their BOE production as a result of the repairs from Hurricane Katrina.

[NATHAN LLOYD]

I lost an apartment and some funiture due to Katrina. I hate being reminded of it...;)

We have some problems right now.

1) A Slowing Economy - especially housing

2) Bernanke

3) Energy prices driving inflation

4) Commodity prices driving inflation

5) Back-dating of options

6) Hurricane threat

Conclusion: How can the companies make profits without inflation with commodity & energy prices weighing on the price of goods sold? Something has to give....right?

The consumer can't take this burden IMO, especially, with interest rates. It's like a game to see how much the consumer can handle without cracking. I guess the first place we'll see them cracking is in the earnings reports later this year.

Why don't I see a balance here?

[Maverick]

Conclusion: How can the companies make profits without inflation with commodity & energy prices weighing on the price of goods sold? Something has to give....right?



I'm accustomed to having the Canadian perspective on energy prices - where the rising price of oil is a huge gain for the TSX and thus many Canadian investors (including myself).

Hearing the viewpoint from the opposite side of field is really a shocking change because the ideology north of the border is:

Rising oil prices = greater profits.

[NATHAN LLOYD]

That is a different perspective, but rising oil prices always makes the USD worth less. I guess it doesn't affect Canada the same.

Here, with increasing oil costs:

The consumer here has to drive to get things (more money).
The consumer had to have those products delivered (more money).
The government has a larger trade deficit (dollar worth less).

I must be missing something because I still don't see a balance.

Duh, I forgot what it was. The foreigners buy our bonds, their educated invest services here, and they do labor for us for almost nothing. We've got it good...I guess.

[aiki14]

We've got it good...I guess.

Yes, yes we do. It would serve us well to remember that.
Of course I'm saying that at 3 am, here in Maui waiting for the sun to rise for another day of windsurfing and Mai Tai's. So I'm feeling particularly thankful of the opportunities living in the states affords me, market oscillations not withstanding. No better place on the planet to make an honest living and prosper IMO.