Oil going higher [Archive] - OnlineTradersForum.com

Stas1976

06-29-2006, 12:03 AM

2 NATHAN LLOYD
I agree with you. The only objective reason why market gets funded is a grow of the world economy primarily driven by BRIC countries. Even if US economy goes forward to the recession, Chinese, indian and Russian economies still demonstrate a stable grow and it is a market oportunity to the trans-world companies like CocaCola or McDonalds.
It is my only hope. I am not very positive about US economy in the long run perspective.

Letigation lawyers pull this country to thousand different dirrections (http://money.cnn.com/magazines/fortune/fortune_archive/2006/07/10/8380798/index.htm?cnn=yes)

Svenwulf

06-29-2006, 01:01 AM

The Fed is tip toeing through the mine field in my opinion. But relying on the BRIC countries i don't think will pull us through. We complain about 5 and quarter.. but China right now has the triple play to kill there economy (raising yuan value, raising rates, and increasing reserve requirements) I think india is very closely tied to tech, which is the first and hardest hit sector in a recession (upgrades can wait in tough times) Russia (including eastern europe) i think still has strong growth potential, but they do have serious economic/social issues that weigh them down. So brazil, and friendly latin american countries are left to look at, but remain generally speculative, which i think is a bad place to be this summer. jmo...

As far as this bounce today, from what i was watching it was mainly smoke and mirrors (still off for the week, and on light volume) again jmo... good luck!

chinaman711

06-29-2006, 08:33 AM

Energy group was very strong yesterday just maybe the big money wants to be in before the earnings start coming out. Look for alot more as most oil companys are under valued imo. If oil goes to 80 like some think then SU goes to 100 CVX to 75 VLO to 80 CHK to 35 and on and on with the oil companys. Looks like another good start as futures are up and oil is up a little. Good luck and look for su to take out 80.

chinaman711

06-29-2006, 08:40 AM

Valero upped at Merrill on rising value or refining assets

Print | | Disable live quotes By Aude Lagorce
Last Update: 6:13 AM ET Jun 29, 2006

LONDON (MarketWatch) -- Merrill Lynch upgraded oil refinery operator Valero Energy (VLO : valero energy corp new com
News , chart, profile, more
Last: 63.43+0.92+1.47%

4:15am 06/29/2006

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63.43, +0.92, +1.5%) to buy from neutral and raised its target price by 29% to $82, saying the value of complex refining assets is on the rise. The broker also told clients to keep an eye out for other catalysts, including capex overruns on high-complexity refinery builds and delay or cancellation of key competitor projects.

chinaman711

06-29-2006, 08:46 AM

pressure into the formation in an attempt to reopen the veins of oil.

Big profit for big oil?
Want to really spend some money with some high-stakes gambling? Just start looking for oil offshore, or in some volatile third-world country. In the case of even shallow coastal offshore United States oil, it will cost several hundred million dollars to get the first barrel. Start adding zeros if you need to go drilling in the North Sea. In many countries, the oil companies must also pay homage to the "dictator of the day," who may at any time decide to nationalize the oil production.

In short, it takes extremely deep pockets to find and produce oil. Potential profit is the carrot that encourages oil companies to invest the required money. Still, the overall profit margin in the oil industry is less than that of many other companies. The table below shows data from several companies for the trailing twelve months.

Company Net Profit Revenue Profit Margin
Citigroup $25 $77 32%
Microsoft 13 43 32%
Coca-Cola 5 23 22%
Proctor & Gamble 9 65 13%
General Electric 17 152 11%
ExxonMobil 37 339 11%
ConocoPhillips 14 172 8%
Chevron 15 198 8%

Billions of dollars. Data provided by CapitalIQ.

This table reinforces my original premise that ExxonMobil posted record profits mostly because of such high volume. The profit margin was one-third that of Citigroup or Microsoft, but its sales numbers were so high that the net profits almost tripled that of Microsoft.

In closing...
Oil companies are presently making a lot of money. They make it by pennies per gallon from refining, and only a little more from production. It's almost impossible to back-calculate the true cost of production or profit per barrel, but the chart above tells me that ExxonMobil's 11% net profit margin on $70 oil would equate to a net profit of $7.70 per barrel, or $0.18 per gallon. That's admittedly a very simplistic way to look at it, but it does tell me that there's no huge rip-off occurring.

Oil prices are set by global supply and demand, and they will continue to rise as long as demand keeps increasing. Global demand has risen from 77.7 million barrels per day (BPD) in 2002 to a projected 85.2 million BPD in 2006. The quickest way to force a price reduction is to reduce demand by easing the regulatory requirements to construct nuclear power plants. If it were not for undue regulatory expense, nuclear power could be so inexpensive that we'd all willingly drive electric cars and use electricity for all possible uses, instead of using fossil fuels. Oil would be used only where absolutely necessary. Then, and only then, would we again see $20 oil.

chinaman711

07-03-2006, 08:06 AM

Looks like another great qtr was locked in by the oil companys CVX owns 50% of Caltex.-------------------------------------------------------

SYDNEY, July 3 (Reuters) - Caltex Australia Ltd. (CTX.AX: Quote, Profile, Research), the country's only listed oil refiner and marketer, forecast profits rose up to 14 percent in the first half of 2006, reflecting strong refining margins.

Caltex, which operates two refineries representing 30 percent of Australian capacity, sees profit after tax on a replacement cost of sales basis in a range of A$160 million to A$170 million ($119 million to $126 million).

That compares to A$149.6 million in the first half of 2005 and equates to approximately 1.7 cents per litre for all petroleum products sold, Caltex said on Monday.

The company, half-owned by U.S.-based Chevron Corp. (CVX.N: Quote, Profile, Research), said refining margins -- the difference between crude oil feedstock costs and the price of products sold by the refineries -- averaged US$9.50 a barrel in the first half of 2006, compared with US$6.48 in the first half of 2005.

Replacement cost of sales excludes the impact of international oil price movements on profits.

The forecast comes despite delays in completing refinery upgrades to meet clean fuel deadlines, which Caltex said had offset higher margins and reduced replacement cost of sales first-half profits by A$80 million to A$100 million.

But the company, which has now completed the upgrades and its maintenance programme, said first-half production was similar to the equivalent period last year, when output was reduced by planned shutdowns at both its Kurnell and Lytton refineries.

On a historical cost basis, excluding one-off items, Caltex is forecasting profit after tax of between A$255 million and A$270 million compared with A$231.8 million a year ago.

Caltex shares fell 0.8 percent to A$23.42 in an overall market down 0.1 percent. ($1=A$1.35)

chinaman711

07-03-2006, 08:17 AM

S.Korea's KNOC to buy oil sands mine in Canada
July 1, 2006, 8:10 pm

SEOUL (Reuters) - South Korea will buy an oil sands mine in Canada with a capacity of 250 million barrels in late July, the commerce ministry said on Sunday, as part of its effort to secure the country's oil needs.

State-run Korea National Oil Corporation (KNOC) would start constructing a production facility in 2008 in Cold Lake, Alberta, where 175 billion barrels of oil sands are available, the commerce ministry said in a statement.

KNOC planned to produce a maximum of 35,000 barrels of crude oil a day starting from 2010, the statement said.

South Korea, the world's fourth-largest crude oil importer, has to import all its crude oil needs to feed its economy, Asia's fourth largest.

chinaman711

07-03-2006, 11:46 AM

Another great day for SU CVX VLO CWPC as oil goes higher.

chinaman711

07-05-2006, 01:53 PM

Looks like oil could see $80 in a few weeks if this keeps up.

NATHAN LLOYD

07-05-2006, 06:17 PM

Oil is peaking.

englishman26

07-05-2006, 10:32 PM

Oil is peaking.

On the basis of what?

NATHAN LLOYD

07-05-2006, 11:16 PM

1) Oil stocks mixed on oil up day - resistance in traders knowledge.

2) Peak driving season almost over.

3) Oil prices bouncing off of records (resistance).

Lou

07-05-2006, 11:32 PM

Oil is headed back down, it shot up because of the nut job in Korea

chinaman711

07-06-2006, 08:21 AM

Sad thing is right now the nut in Korea can get away with just about whatever he wants as the u.s. has it hands full in Iraq. Look for Iran to do something now to keep the pressure on the u.s.

NATHAN LLOYD

07-06-2006, 12:43 PM

Iraq only has less than 1/8th of American troops preoccupied.

I sure called this oil peaking didn't I. It's not like I know how to capitalize off of it....hmmm....short CRZO maybe.

oldboldpilot

07-06-2006, 01:02 PM

chinaman711

07-06-2006, 01:05 PM

Oil down a little but i don't think it has peaked. T. B. Pickens calling for 80 dollar oil and then higher. Jim Rogers calling for 100 dollar oil. CVX another great day and hope to see SU join in the run today too. CWPC should get interesting around 2:30 when they post the news on their site. Good luck

chinaman711

07-06-2006, 01:21 PM

CWPC just jumped .25 must be getting ready to put out some news. That was a quick move.

chinaman711

07-06-2006, 01:43 PM

I hope CWPC will tell us how much oil they are sitting on. Could get SU going too SU 83.39 down .78. Good luck

NATHAN LLOYD

07-06-2006, 02:03 PM

Hate to tell you this Nathan but one day a market does not make. Calling ANYTHING in this market is ummmmm an exercise in futility. Just about the time you think you have it all figured out, along comes an apple cart upsetter.
I know you love to be a pessimist and a cynic but if I were you, I think I'd hold short of predicting. Just my HO !!!!

I don't consider oil peaking a bad thing. I consider it a necessity for our economy to survive.

I enjoy predicting. It's fun even if I'm wrong. That is what you have to do every day when you put money in the market is to try to predict it's future. Yes, it's difficult and I'm sorry you don't approve of it, but I enjoy making predictions. I guess you believe that investing in this market is futile too (I about agree with you).

chinaman711

07-06-2006, 02:25 PM

CVX just hit another new day high and oil looks to go green soon, Good luck

oldboldpilot

07-06-2006, 02:33 PM

Yup, I agree Nathan......getting to be more and more futile. I have not held a stock this year that has not been hit and hit hard. Some have partially recovered but I am STILL way down from where I was two months ago.
Predicting >> what can I say, I don't know about you but my track record SUX at this particular juncture. Predict away....I'll read 'em as you write 'em.
I didn't mean to infer that predicting was a bad thing.....just kinda futile but that's what we're into lately......futility !

chinaman711

07-06-2006, 02:43 PM

SU up a dollar from this mornings low. SU turning out to be a good trader as oil goes green. Good luck

oldboldpilot

07-06-2006, 03:45 PM

Up a dollar as you wrote that...down .87 as I write this......that's what I like >> consistency. Unless you sit and stare at the streaming quotes or are lucky enough to hit a limit sell order you are Way behind the curve.....and I like to think I have a life beyond the freakin' stock market !

NATHAN LLOYD

07-07-2006, 09:25 AM

Well, oil breaking new records again this morning. It hit 75.70 and was at 75.55 the last I looked. Gas is going over $3.

chinaman711

07-07-2006, 10:11 AM

Look for CVX to take out its 52 week high as oil goes higher. SU still a way to go but it is looking good too. VLO very nice and i hope cwpc will run a little on last nights news. Good luck

englishman26

07-07-2006, 02:56 PM

Oil at tops with market profit taking, I sold SU this morning - fortunately before it plummeted. Still holding CWPC but disappointed by the drop and may look to get out of that too depending on what it does tomorrow.

I also sold HHBR this morning. Got 21% profit out of it but was hoping for much more. Just don't like how it's acting and it could be 6 to 8 months before they get their act together as a company. Will look to buy it back on any moves though as i still think this is a great speculative play.

Sold XSNX this morning too. Lost my current trade 40% gain on that. This market sucks! Again, will look to buy it back at some point.

I'll probably wait until the middle of next week before I buy anything. I think monday could be another big down day.

MoMoney4Me

07-07-2006, 03:08 PM

englishman, hang in there
CVX you mention has been doing well and I think will continue to.
I picked up shares on 6/15 at $58.90 and up 8.5% on them. Give that a serious look and also look at AA. I picked that up the same day at $30.11 and up 11.5% on that. These are good stocks you can buy and hold awhile with great odds of making some of that money back.

Good luck

NATHAN LLOYD

07-07-2006, 04:14 PM

I sure called this oil peaking didn't I. It's not like I know how to capitalize off of it....hmmm....short CRZO maybe.

Do I like to brag? Well, Yes. This red is only fun if you're short. Check out CRZO Boldpiolot. You knock me for making predictions. Who did what I said, and shorted CRZO?

chinaman711

07-07-2006, 04:31 PM

Im out too just don't want to be in this kind of a market on monday. Sold all my oil stocks. Might be time to take a vacation. Be real careful on monday.

NATHAN LLOYD

07-07-2006, 04:57 PM

Good job Chinaman. Have fun.

englishman26

07-07-2006, 05:49 PM

I'm still in CWPC as it could bounce well next week. May be buying more lower down though! Enjoy the vacation Cman!

madcowdisease

07-08-2006, 04:18 PM

This is getting ridiculous; there is too much of a premium in oil. I'm not saying it will fall but it deserves to. We find out Thursday that US reserves had a build when they expected a draw and oil remains flat and even increases? C'mon, clearly this price is being supported by fear not anything rational such as supply and demand.

I hope to god that Iran takes the incentive deal next week (11th I think) so all the futures traders that artificially bid up oil can feel the pain when it crashes.

chinaman711

07-08-2006, 09:38 PM

Canadian oil sands stocks took a hit friday on cost concerns. I still think oil goes to $80 and SU reports a great qtr but this news sure took the oil sands stocks down friday. Im going to wait and see what happens monday and plan on getting su back for the earnings. Good luck and here is the news from shell

By Scott Haggett

CALGARY, Alberta, July 6 (Reuters) - Developers of northern Alberta's huge oil-sands reserves may have to rework or delay their projects to avoid massive cost overruns, industry watchers said on Thursday, after Shell Canada Ltd. (SHC.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) said expanding the Athabasca Oil Sands Project would cost billions of dollars more than earlier estimates.

Western Oil Sands Inc. (WTO.TO: Quote, Profile, Research), which owns 20 percent of Shell Canada's oil sands project, said late on Wednesday that a planned expansion of the mine and upgrading refinery could cost close to C$11 billion, 50 percent more than estimated just a year ago.

The project, which will boost output by some 100,000 barrels a day to about 255,000, faces rising costs for labor, materials and equipment.

A spokeswoman said Shell Canada, 78 percent owned by Royal Dutch Shell Plc (RDSa.L: Quote, Profile, Research), is deferring a final decision on going ahead with the project until the fourth quarter instead of September as it firms up a budget.

But other operators in the oil-rich region may also need to rethink plans as costs rise across the board.

"They are going to have to find ways to get their costs down," said Glenn MacNeill, chief investment officer at Sentry Select Capital Management in Toronto. "Clearly they can't have these cost escalations continue and still be profitable."

Some C$125 billion in projects are either planned or under construction in the Alberta oil sands, which contains an estimated 174 billion barrels of recoverable oil, a resource second in size only to Saudi Arabia's reserves.

chinaman711

07-08-2006, 09:40 PM

Shell Canada's cost woes are expected to spread to other firms planning large-scale projects, and shares of smaller firms operating in the region plunged on word of the cost pressures.

Western Oil Sands shares dropped C$3.70, or 12 percent to C$28.41 on the Toronto Stock Exchange.

UTS Energy Corp. (UTS.TO: Quote, Profile, Research), a 30 percent owner of Petro-Canada's (PCA.TO: Quote, Profile, Research) planned 240,000 barrel a day Fort Hills oil sands project, fell 62 Canadian cents, or 10 per cent to C$5.45 on the Toronto Stock Exchange as more than 10 million shares traded, more than three times the three-month average volume.

However Will Roach, chief executive of UTS, said Fort Hills was unlikely to see the cost inflation suffered by Shell Canada, though a final estimate of costs won't be ready until the fourth quarter.

"Are costs going down? Obviously not, but are we way off on our estimate? No. I don't think it's way off," Roach said.

Out-of-control costs and a lack of skilled labor have been a prominent feature of nearly all major oil sands projects and the C$8.4 billion tally for a recent 100,000 barrel a day expansion of Syncrude Canada Ltd.'s mine and upgrading refinery was billions more than first estimates.

Canadian Natural Resources Ltd. (CNQ.TO: Quote, Profile, Research), which is now building its Horizon oil sands mine and upgrading refinery, has kept costs in check by flying in labor from elsewhere in Canada and internationally.

But others companies, particularly those building their projects at the end of the decade, may face even greater competition to hire a work force from other major construction projects such as the 2010 Winter Olympics in Vancouver.

"The further along you are with these projects the better off you are," said Martin Molyneaux. analyst at FirstEnergy Capital in Calgary. "The more theoretical the project, the less design work done, the more price risk you face. It's not a pretty situation."

NATHAN LLOYD

07-08-2006, 09:41 PM

So, we should short SU and WTO then?

chinaman711

07-08-2006, 09:52 PM

I don't know about shorting SU as they might have their cost under control but some of the smaller companys may have a problem imo. I sold as i did not like all the selling coming in friday on all the oil sands stocks. I will be watching to get back in when things settle down. With all the oil up there SU could be the real winner if the smaller companys can't control their cost or can't raise money to bring up the oil. Maybe its just shell who is having cost control problems who knows.

madcowdisease

07-08-2006, 10:26 PM

I don't know about shorting SU either but I wouldn't be a buyer at this dollar level. Look at the chart on SU, it went straght up from $68 to $82. It needs to correct a bit before it's safe to take a position.

CMan, you can easily corroborate your statement SU has their costs under control. Just listen to their last quarterly report conference call and you will hear them say all projects are on schedule and within budget. Can't ask for more than that; this is extremely rare.

But this may pertain simply to construction plans. I hear a general laborer in Fort Mac can make upwards of $100,000/year. That's pretty steep imo.

G'luck

chinaman711

07-08-2006, 10:40 PM

Yep wages are high in the Fort McMurray area and so is housing. You can make 20 bucks an hour flipping burgers there too. Boom town thats Fort McMurray check out the local newspaper fortmcmurraytoday.com. I hope to see SU test the 76-77 area. Good luck

Maverick

07-09-2006, 08:24 PM

A conservative way to play the energy sector (regardless of whether oil goes up or down) is some of the energy services sector companies.

CCS INCOME TRUST is my recommendation (CCR.UN on the TSX)

CCS INCOME TRUST provides crude oil treatment, waste processing, engineered landfill disposal services, terminaling and storage, and supply of drilling fluids through its CCS Energy Services division. Through its Concord Well Servicing division, the company provides completions, workovers, and abandonments.

gives roughly a 5% yield

low payout ratio (29%)

CCS INCOME TRUST has a 60% market cap in the waste management sector in the Alberta oil sands. (Newalta energy services as the remaining 40%)

Great management and growth potential

continual record profits

CHART

http://tsedb.globeinvestor.com/invest/investSQL/tsx.show_chart?iaction=Generate&pl_period=36W&pl_primary_listing=CCR.UN-T

http://tsedb.globeinvestor.com/invest/investSQL/tsx.company_prof?symbol_in=CCR.UN&exchange_in=T

chinaman711

07-10-2006, 08:17 AM

Monday July 10, 5:47 am ET
By Gillian Wong, Associated Press Writer
Oil Prices Fall Below $74 a Barrel on Profit-Taking After Recent Gains

SINGAPORE (AP) -- Crude oil prices retreated Monday as traders took profits following recent gains and amid easing worries about Iran's nuclear dispute after the country's top nuclear negotiator expressed optimism that the standoff can be resolved peacefully.
ADVERTISEMENT

Light, sweet crude for August delivery fell 37 cents to $73.72 a barrel in Asian electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The drop came after oil prices had climbed for most of the last two weeks, reaching an intraday record of $75.78 a barrel on Friday before settling back at $74.09.

The Brent crude contract for August fell 27 cents to $73.24 a barrel.

"The drop in prices is more about profit-taking than anything else," said Tobin Gorey, commodity strategist at Commonwealth Bank in Sydney. "We're in the midst of the hurricane season, it would take a lot of courage for anyone to go seriously short now."

Traders have been closely watching Gulf of Mexico weather reports as memories of last year -- one of the most destructive hurricane seasons on record -- continued to haunt traders. Hurricanes Katrina and Rita swept some offshore rigs from their moorings, shuttered production in the Gulf and damaged refineries in Louisiana and southeast Texas.

The oil market has been driven by increasing geopolitical tensions, particularly the ongoing nuclear standoff between the West and Iran, the second-largest oil producer in the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries. Some fear that sanctions imposed against Iran could prompt it to withhold some of its crude from the market.

Gorey said traders could also be reacting to comments by Iran's top nuclear negotiator on Friday insisting the nuclear standoff can be resolved through dialogue.

"The Iranian nuclear issue is not so complicated that it cannot be solved through dialogue," Ali Larijani told a news conference in Madrid after meeting with senior Spanish officials. He would not say when Iran might respond to the package of incentives offered by the world powers to persuade the country to cease uranium enrichment.

Gasoline futures on Monday fell 1.58 cents to $2.2263 a gallon while heating oil prices dropped 0.17 cent to $2.0087 a gallon.

Nymex natural gas futures gained 3.9 cents to $5.562 per 1,000 cubic feet after falling Friday to their lowest level in nearly two years as U.S. supplies in storage grew to roughly 30 percent above their five-year average.

The United States is awash in natural gas and some analysts believe there may not be enough underground storage capacity, potentially forcing some producers to shut wells. Others predict the falling price will spark demand and cause the supply overhang to be whittled away by fall.

chinaman711

07-10-2006, 09:34 AM

SU CVX down a little in pre market. Hope to see su hit 76-77 area this week. CVX hope to see 61-62 all depends on the price of oil so keep an eye on oil. Looks like techs might be the trade this week. Im in aapl rimm and xing. Good luck

chinaman711

07-10-2006, 10:52 AM

Back in su on a dip below 78 just a trade.

chinaman711

07-10-2006, 11:16 AM

Back in cvx too

chinaman711

07-10-2006, 12:09 PM

Added to su and cvx just need oil to come back and they both are off and running again imo. Oil down .39 at 11am see what happens. If oil goes lower i will be selling both su and cvx today. Great to trade

chinaman711

07-10-2006, 01:40 PM

Oil down 1.14 if it comes back then su and cvx will too. A great day to trade both of them. Good luck

chinaman711

07-10-2006, 05:27 PM

Sold them both today a nice little trade. Got su twice under 78. Sure hope oil opens lower tomorrow as i don't want to miss a big run in su. Hope to see 76-77 on su and 62-63 on cvx. Good luck

englishman26

07-10-2006, 06:12 PM

Could there be another significant pullback in oil here that will see SU under $70 again? Another 3 days of today and it'll be there. I tend to only play the larger moves in big boys like SU.

chinaman711

07-10-2006, 07:20 PM

Suncor Energy (SU - commentary - Cramer's Take), the largest oil sands company in the world, is an opportunity, he said. The market is very tough right now, Cramer said, but he believes Suncor is getting higher.

"Wait 'til tomorrow and then pull the trigger," he said.
If it goes in the 76-77 range might be time to load up again all depends on the price of oil. Right now it is a great buy the dips trade imo : )

NATHAN LLOYD

07-11-2006, 01:04 AM

It looks like it's time to pick it up. It has a "little hammer" with a gap down. It's starting an alcohol plant, and it has 3--working on their 4th--wind farms. I think it is ready to bounce if oil does. I'm thinking about it in the morning--like you said though, it depends on oil prices.

NATHAN LLOYD

07-11-2006, 01:17 AM

ANDE was up 13% today while SU was down 3%. ANDE joined with MRO, but 13%. Wish I wouldn't have missed this news today. It still seems like SU getting into ethanol would make it a sympathy play with ANDE.

What happened here?
I guess people missed the SU news or something.

madcowdisease

07-11-2006, 05:16 AM

chinaman711

07-11-2006, 09:27 AM

Oil up .47 at 8:25 am looks like i should have held su and cvx. Might have to pay up if oil goes higher today and tomorrow. Good luck

chinaman711

07-11-2006, 10:27 AM

Oil up .64 Looks like a good day for the oil stocks. CVX resistance is 65.16 and SU 80.01. Good luck

chinaman711

07-11-2006, 10:39 AM

Back in cvx and su on the open cvx looks to take out 65 imo and su working on 79

chinaman711

07-11-2006, 11:37 AM

cvx having a tuff time getting to 65 needs to take out all these sellers at 64.80-64.96. Could have a run if it ever gets thru 65 good luck

madcowdisease

07-11-2006, 12:47 PM

Shouldn't we expect news out of Iran today? Or is that Thursday? They postponed their meeting with the UN and rescheduled for one of these days hence the bounce in oil last week.

Personally I filled up my tank to the very top at 2.77 today expecting the worst. Let the gasoline soar; I'm prepared.

Got this one right. I'd say this is a good time to buy oil stocks as they are mixed today on very bad news for the consumer as oil looks to go higher with Iran rejecting talks. Our next hope is they take the incentive package in August (not likely).

Most oil stocks look good to me with the exception of SU. My aversion to SU is purely attributable to the fact Cramer pumped it yesterday telling his lemmings to buy it today. From this day forward the hands holding SU will be extremely weak. Just look what happened the last time he pumped it. At the slightest hiccup in the market the thing shed 20 points. I'm not going through that again since I can no longer babysit my portfolio.

englishman26

07-11-2006, 01:00 PM

That's really an exajeration of the power of the cramer lemmings. SU has a huge market cap and won't be moved that much by Cramer. It's up today becase oil is up. It has been volatile before now probably because it's margins are lower than most oil companies and therefore fear is higher when oil heads south.

War with Iran could send oil prices as high as $200 a barrel. Things would really get crazy on the consumer then!

chinaman711

07-11-2006, 01:15 PM

CVX picking up now and taking out all those sellers looks good to take out 65 imo. Looks to test day high of 64.98 soon good luck

madcowdisease

07-11-2006, 01:20 PM

War with Iran could send oil prices as high as $200 a barrel. Things would really get crazy on the consumer then!

I'd cash out of everything except gold bars if that is the case. But, I don't think we will ever go to war with Iran. It will have to be a multi-national collaborative which won't happen either. We'll just wait 'til they drop a nuke on NY City.

That's really an exajeration of the power of the cramer lemmings. SU has a huge market cap and won't be moved that much by Cramer. It's up today becase oil is up. It has been volatile before now probably because it's margins are lower than most oil companies and therefore fear is higher when oil heads south.

You think so eh? Id be willing to bet I've watched SU longer than anyone on this board, minute charts for months. In the past have literally had the streaming quote running while listening to Cramer. The second he pumped it the first time it jumped over two bucks, from $80 and change to $83 and the market cap is actually smaller now at sub-$80 (but I don't share your belief cap is relevant). From that point on the stock started its rapid ascent.

If SU is up today solely because oil is up why are nearly half the oil stocks showing red today? I'll concede oil likely has something to do with it but the rise in SU is a confluence of factors with one being Cramer's pump and the lemmings flocking to it.

I'm not trying to argue here. If you like SU or currently hold it I'm sure you have your reasons. Just know that I've watched Cramer ruin what was once my favorite stock among myriad others I've seen him turn to garbage. If all goes well for oil, yet very bad for the consumer, you will most likely see SU climb higher. But I promise, at the slightest hiccup in oil's climb or Suncor's operations and you will see this thing drop like a rock. Keep a tight trailing stop or sit at your computer all day with this one in an open window so you can monitor it (like I used to). The hands buying it today will be holding it tomorrow, they don't know a damn thing about SU other than what Cramer tells them, and their conviction is very weak.

Caveat Emptor

chinaman711

07-11-2006, 01:27 PM

Englishman are you watching CVX they are doing everything they can to hold it to 65. IMO once 65 goes it will run. Good luck and keep an eye on xing too as it just jumped 40 cents in last 15 minutes

Svenwulf

07-11-2006, 02:07 PM

Chinaman, i meant no slight on the other thread about cvx. I have great respect for not only your trading, but on your "gold finding" - again congratulations on xing! I know you have been playing in cvx longer than i prolly been able to tie my shoes! Same with aiki and lots of others on this board. I just enjoy any experience you all can give us newbs.

chinaman711

07-11-2006, 02:18 PM

I must have missed the post as this darn cvx just can't get thru 65. GO XING GO

chinaman711

07-11-2006, 03:52 PM

CVX off and running now imo. I added to my calls and picked up more SU calls too. Good luck and GO XING GO

englishman26

07-11-2006, 05:05 PM

I'd cash out of everything except gold bars if that is the case. But, I don't think we will ever go to war with Iran. It will have to be a multi-national collaborative which won't happen either. We'll just wait 'til they drop a nuke on NY City.

You think so eh? Id be willing to bet I've watched SU longer than anyone on this board, minute charts for months. In the past have literally had the streaming quote running while listening to Cramer. The second he pumped it the first time it jumped over two bucks, from $80 and change to $83 and the market cap is actually smaller now at sub-$80 (but I don't share your belief cap is relevant). From that point on the stock started its rapid ascent.

If SU is up today solely because oil is up why are nearly half the oil stocks showing red today? I'll concede oil likely has something to do with it but the rise in SU is a confluence of factors with one being Cramer's pump and the lemmings flocking to it.

I'm not trying to argue here. If you like SU or currently hold it I'm sure you have your reasons. Just know that I've watched Cramer ruin what was once my favorite stock among myriad others I've seen him turn to garbage. If all goes well for oil, yet very bad for the consumer, you will most likely see SU climb higher. But I promise, at the slightest hiccup in oil's climb or Suncor's operations and you will see this thing drop like a rock. Keep a tight trailing stop or sit at your computer all day with this one in an open window so you can monitor it (like I used to). The hands buying it today will be holding it tomorrow, they don't know a damn thing about SU other than what Cramer tells them, and their conviction is very weak.

Caveat Emptor

Well I've been trading SU up and down for a while. I don't watch Cramer anymore so I don't see his affect - I just play the tape as I see it. I sold at 83 last week and bought it back at 79 today. We'll see what tomorrow holds but oil will hit $80ab at some point this summer and SU wil be around 100 when it does. I could just hold it but playing the ups and downs is more fun!

Sorry he spoiled it for you. I still like it!

chinaman711

07-11-2006, 05:24 PM

SU target price is $117 and all i want is 90 by aug 3rd. MRO what a day as oil goes higher. CVX you could just see what was going to happen as they tried to hold it under 65. I hope we get a few more days like this so i can go back to Tunica and relax. Looking for cvx to test its 52 week high tomorrow as MRO blew right by its 52 week high. Good luck to the oil longs.

madcowdisease

07-11-2006, 07:19 PM

chinaman711

07-11-2006, 07:28 PM

Raymond James put out the report would you like a copy of the report. They also discussed several other oil sands companys. SU 80 come on 90

madcowdisease

07-11-2006, 08:40 PM

Raymond James put out the report would you like a copy of the report. They also discussed several other oil sands companys. SU 80 come on 90

Sure I'll read a copy if I could get my hands on one.

chinaman711

07-12-2006, 11:14 AM

Oil Inventory numbers coming out in fifteen minutes oil up .14 see what happens CVX looking good so far best of the bunch

chinaman711

07-12-2006, 11:26 AM

We better get a good report as oil stocks are looking real weak with the rest of the market here.

chinaman711

07-12-2006, 11:31 AM

Sweet here we gooooooooooooooo

chinaman711

07-12-2006, 12:34 PM

Trade 101 works again. When the report is good sell the news and when its bad buy the dip. Worked again this wed. Back in cvx and su as imo oil will go higher still looking for 80 dollar oil and if we get a few more reports like todays it will get there. JMHO

madcowdisease

07-12-2006, 02:53 PM

Svenwulf

07-12-2006, 02:58 PM

and the whole isreali situation! cant imagine syria flying cap good for low crude prices.. Cramer says oxy is most levered to crude.

chinaman711

07-12-2006, 03:10 PM

Oil stocks down a little today as market looks real bad dow down 120 nasd down 33 s&p down 13. The nasd needs to get back above 2100 or we will go lower. Look for 75 dollar oil again and SU look for a run into earnings imo. Good luck and trade this market. Techs getting hammered again

NATHAN LLOYD

07-12-2006, 03:13 PM

Crude just hit 75 a min. ago. I bought some more SU.

chinaman711

07-12-2006, 03:19 PM

If the dow rallys su will see 81 today imo

chinaman711

07-12-2006, 04:20 PM

CVX back to 65 come on su lets get it going again. We need a rally here in the last 40 minutes. Come on dow and nasd. Dow down 118 needs to come back about 40 points.

oldboldpilot

07-12-2006, 04:25 PM

Hate to be the bearer of bad news but tuesday's last minute run was an aberration I'm afraid. The market contines on it's decline, interrupted only by moments of irrational exhuberance.
At the moment gold seems the only safe harbor .....and not all of THOSE stocks.
Go figure !

chinaman711

07-12-2006, 04:55 PM

Yep best to trade this market did not get that late day rally but su and cvx holding up alot better then the techs. Im holding as i still think we will see 80 dollar oil. Su reports in 3 weeks and imo it sould run into earnings as long as oil does not tank. Good luck

madcowdisease

07-12-2006, 05:08 PM

We got news that was bullish for oil yet all the oil stocks are down today. Similarly, yesterday we had news out of Iran that was bullish for oil yet the oil sector was mixed all day until the end.

Anyone have a thesis on why this is so? Seems paradoxical to me.

Bump

Also, oil was down or mixed when the DJIA was only down 15 points earlier today. Obviously it is getting pulled down along with the rest of the market now but how does one explain the poor performace when so much is going "right" for crude?

NATHAN LLOYD

07-12-2006, 05:58 PM

Bump

Also, oil was down or mixed when the DJIA was only down 15 points earlier today. Obviously it is getting pulled down along with the rest of the market now but how does one explain the poor performace when so much is going "right" for crude?

It's those people selling to the market makers. That is my opinion on it. All those Cramer lemmings were selling to the MM's, and tomorrow it will open about $1 higher.

chinaman711

07-12-2006, 06:02 PM

Yep the market makers making a killing on cvx nyse moves it up and down just follow him and you can do well trading cvx.

madcowdisease

07-12-2006, 08:27 PM

I found an explanation why traders didn't react to the oil numbers.

One, the oil decline is because refiners are ramping up production turning crude in to gasoline. Two, the Fourth of July holiday led to a drop in imports:

The bigger than forecast declines in gasoline and oil stockpiles may have been compounded by reduced imports during the Independence Day holidays at the start of last week.

Crude oil imports declined an average 920,000 barrels a day to 9.6 million last week, the report showed. It was the biggest one-week decline since September. Gasoline imports fell 14 percent to 1.1 million barrels a day.

``The decline was due to the drop in imports,'' Tim Evans, an energy analyst at Citigroup Global Markets Inc. in New York, said yesterday. ``Cargoes weren't unloaded and customs officials were on vacation'' on July 4, he said.

Seems we may be prudent to wait 'til next wek to see if this pattern holds or if imports pick up.

Svenwulf

07-12-2006, 08:31 PM

Great eye madcow! if i follow correctly, next week should be an increase (or less decrease), due to the the 2 extra days to be made up for. Takes oil stocks down, and then we buy.

madcowdisease

07-12-2006, 08:34 PM

Great eye madcow! if i follow correctly, next week should be an increase (or less decrease), due to the the 2 extra days to be made up for. Takes oil stocks down, and then we buy.

No problemo.

You're gonna want SU to get hit and hit hard to shake out the lemmings that are in it right now. So I hope you're right by prognosticating oil is going down.

Svenwulf

07-12-2006, 08:41 PM

i dunno about oil going down lol.. those isrealis and syrians are doing some serious sabre rattling. I am just seeing an opportunity that you present to game the market a bit, because i dont think many except actual oil traders factor the holiday. plus, i know at least at my shop, there is always pressure to get through a ton of work after any holiday- rent has no paid holiday. so basically i am taking my su down. as i see it, it will be either long past my 78.50 entry, or i should get it a bit cheaper next week. Still so much to learn! newbie case study #2?

chinaman711

07-12-2006, 09:54 PM

chinaman711

07-12-2006, 09:56 PM

Could Oil Hit $100 Anytime Soon?
I'm Louis Navellier, and I'm not going to predict that huge a rise. That would be foolish. But I am worried, and you should be, too.

After all, with North Korea now flaunting its missile muscle, Iran continuing to stall on its own nuke talks, and demand from China and India growing exponentially, the odds are better than 2-to-1 that you’ll never again see $60 again oil in your lifetime.

How can I be so sure?

TWO REASONS:

1. As you’ll read in a moment, the oil supply simply can’t keep pace with growing demand not only from China and India, but also from right here in the United States.

2. The oil powers saw how the U.S. economy continued to power through $70-a-barrel oil prices and are going to use the world's stage to keep oil prices high and pile on the profit for themselves.

And if you play it right, you can profit along with them as we enter a new era of higher energy prices.

For the past 18 months, as I've been telling my readers how oil and energy stocks would continue to rise higher, my readers have more than doubled their money in a handful of select oil companies:

Imperial Oil, up 160.5%
Valero Energy, up 264.1%
Occidental Petroleum, up 221.7%
Canadian Natural Resources, up 198.6%

chinaman711

07-12-2006, 10:16 PM

An act of war hmmmmmm bet oil goes higher on this kind of talk. Could see oil go up a buck tomorrow imo.

NATHAN LLOYD

07-12-2006, 10:53 PM

The internet went out on me twice today. Those technicians pissed me off today. I had too many shares of SU, and I couldn't sell them. I had all but 25 shares liquidated at 3:51. I still made some, but I would have gone through to tomorrow with 75 shares. GRRRR. Oil is going towards $80, and it's not going to be long--I bet we break $76 tomorrow easily. With a hurricane, we'll be at $100 in no time. Whoever wants to wait on oil to come back down with demand going up at $3/gal gas and supplies dwindling, will be sitting there waiting till winter. I'll buy up more SU on any dip tomorrow. Hopefully the internet will stay on. Good luck.

madcowdisease

07-12-2006, 11:11 PM

The draw down was 6 mil barrels and last year the draw down was 4 mil barrels. Sounds like the demand is going up to me. One thing is for sure------It came as a big surprise to many. Could see 80 dollar oil in a few weeks imo.

Nice fact checking CMan, seriously, that's impressive. I'd like to know your source. Couldn't the increased draw have something to do with an X-factor rather than demand? Perhaps the fact the 4th was on a Tueasday this year versus a Monday last yr. Most ppl I know took a 4 day weekend. It's possible Customs officials did the same where last yr would've only been a 3 day weekend.

Just tossin' it out there for thought.

NATHAN LLOYD

07-13-2006, 12:33 AM

It could be the oil spill blocking up Lake Charles.

However, you can see that gas demand is going up on this site. I noticed this last week. I still don't know how demand in the US hasn't slowed since gas has risen to $3 per gal. from $1. It surprises me!

http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/oog/info/twip/twip_gasoline.html [Look at the graph on bottom of page.]

This graph demonstrates that our economy can still soak up oil at $75/bar. It will have to rise until demand slows a little IMO. I don't like it, but there is no use arguing with it. I'll just go with it & the market.

BTW, I think this graph can give a heads up on when oil should start to fall in prices.

madcowdisease

07-13-2006, 01:16 AM

Svenwulf

07-13-2006, 01:24 AM

This gulf coast storm season (next 10-12 if i recollect) is supposed to be active. Everyone knows this will roof the price of oil/gasoline. Can we make money with the odds stacked so blatantly one way? Ok- off i go, promise!

NATHAN LLOYD

07-13-2006, 02:13 AM

The graph on production shows it is keeping up with demand. So the price is all in the speculation there may be disruptions because the shortages just aren't there. All hell breaks loose when we get a Gulf Coast hurricane which I sure as shi'ite hope doesn't happen.

9.265 is the 4 wk. average production #
9.559 is the 4 wk. average demand #

It doesn't seem to be keeping up to me.

Plus, how would there be a decrease in gas stocks if production was keeping up?

jl1986

07-13-2006, 02:29 AM

hey im 19, and after some months of research, jus purchased the following on monday... its my 1st time investing in the stock market, but im jus getting used to it. am I trying too hard to find the diamond in the rough, or am I just plain stupid for investing with these companies? tell me what you think!:D

200 shares EGY @ 9.25
300 shares CUP @ 4.82

chinaman711

07-13-2006, 08:07 AM

Might see $76 today
By Tanalee Smith, Associated Press Writer
Oil Prices Hit New Intraday High of $75.88 a Barrel on Escalation of Violence in Mideast

SINGAPORE (AP) -- Oil prices hit a record Thursday as an escalation of violence in the Middle East triggered concerns about stability in the region.
Light, sweet crude for August delivery rose 93 cents to $75.88 a barrel in electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange, breaking the previous intraday high of $75.78 set last Friday.

ADVERTISEMENT

The front-month August Brent contract on London's ICE Futures exchange also hit a high, climbing 99 cents to $75.38 a barrel, above its previous $75.09 per barrel record notched Friday.

Earlier in the day, Israeli warplanes struck the runways of Beirut's international airport as part of a campaign against Hezbollah, which attacked Israeli border positions Wednesday and captured two soldiers.

While latest developments don't directly threaten security of Mideast oil supply, growing instability in region adds a risk premium to prices.

Adding to anxiety in the market was news that Iran was referred back to the U.N. Security Council Wednesday after nuclear talks failed to yield agreements, stirring concerns about how OPEC's No. 2 supplier might respond.

The United States and other permanent members of the Security Council said Iran has had long enough to say whether it will meet the world's terms to open bargaining that would give Tehran economic and energy incentives in exchange for giving up suspicious activities.

Any punishment or coercion at the Security Council is a long way off, but the group said it will seek an initial resolution requiring Iran to suspend its uranium enrichment.

Also, Wednesday's weekly U.S. government report showed a sharp decline last week in domestic crude oil inventories.

In its weekly petroleum report, the Energy Department said commercially available crude oil stocks shrank by 6 million barrels to 335.3 million barrels. Crude supplies are still 2 percent higher than last year.

chinaman711

07-13-2006, 09:03 AM

Date:7/13/2006 6:59:23 AM
Post #of 38266

Oil hits record near $76 on Nigeria, Mideast
Thursday July 13, 6:54 am ET
By Alex Lawler

LONDON (Reuters) - Oil surged to a record high near $76 a barrel on Thursday on renewed worries over supply from major exporter Nigeria and as conflict between Israel and Hizbollah in Lebanon heightened international tensions.

Prices also rose as the Iran nuclear row appeared to be heading to the U.N. Security Council, North Korea walked out of talks with South Korea and crude inventories in top consumer the United States fell more than expected.

"Geopolitical risk is out of control," said Tony Nunan, a risk manager at Mitsubishi Corp. "There's...Nigeria, Israel is taking a strong stance and that's adding fuel to the fire, but more than anything it's U.S. gasoline demand holding up and the Iran situation."

U.S. crude <CLc1 traded 80 cents higher at $75.75 a barrel by 1036 GMT, after hitting a record $75.89. London Brent was up $1.08 at $75.47 after reaching a record $75.60.

In Nigeria, two suspected explosions at a crude oil pipeline operated by Agip, a unit of Italy's Eni, caused oil spills, Nigerian officials said. Eni denied reports of sabotage and extensive oil spills and said the damage would be repaired soon.

Royal Dutch Shell Plc has already had to shut down 473,000 barrels per day of Nigerian supply, almost a quarter of output in Africa's top oil supplier, due to attacks by rebels.

Adding to Middle East tensions, Israel struck Beirut airport and blockaded Lebanese ports on Thursday, intensifying reprisals that have killed 47 civilians since Lebanese Hizbollah fighters seized two Israeli soldiers and killed eight a day earlier.

Supply breaks and growing Middle East tension mean oil prices may rise further, analysts say. The Middle East pumps about a quarter of world output, but neither Israel nor Lebanon are producers.

"It's a strong combination of positive fundamentals and heightened geopolitical tensions pushing oil to new highs," said Kevin Norrish of Barclays Capital.

"It's difficult to see why the upward momentum shouldn't continue."

madcowdisease

07-13-2006, 11:03 AM

9.265 is the 4 wk. average production #
9.559 is the 4 wk. average demand #

It doesn't seem to be keeping up to me.

Plus, how would there be a decrease in gas stocks if production was keeping up?

Relatively speaking, and you can see this on the graphs, the difference in supply and demand is not as severe. I was trying to show there is more speculation involved this year than last. Compared to a yr ago we're doing a good job keeping up w/ gasoline demand (you can see it using the link you provided).

The 25% surge in the price of crude and the near 50% increase in gasoline show that futures traders believe there will be supply interuptions. The last time we saw $3, back in April I believe, we did see demand fall off. It will only be a matter of time before it happens again.

As far as declinging gas stocks, I don't see what you see to support this comment: Plus, how would there be a decrease in gas stocks if production was keeping up?

Total Gasoline Stocks= 212.4 (6/23/06), 213.1 (6/30/06), and 212.7 (7/7/06).

Compare to 212.6 (7/8/06) and we actually see more fuel available. We see the same pattern for Conventional Gasoline Stocks and Blending Components Stocks. The only place we see fewer gasoline stocks is in Reformulated Gasoline Stocks.

madcowdisease

07-13-2006, 11:17 AM

Compare to 212.6 (7/8/06)

Correction: (7/8/05). Just got in the habit of typing 06 at the end of all the dates.

NATHAN LLOYD

07-13-2006, 11:46 AM

76.25

NATHAN LLOYD

07-13-2006, 12:19 PM

76.3

chinaman711

07-13-2006, 01:13 PM

*DJ OIL FUTURES:Nymex Crude Hits New Record High, Now $76.50

07/13/2006
Dow Jones News Services
(Copyright © 2006 Dow Jones & Company, Inc.)

(MORE TO FOLLOW) Dow Jones Newswires

07-13-06 1206ET

Copyright (c) 2006 Dow Jones

madcowdisease

07-13-2006, 03:18 PM

True enough, the climate for oil is the worst it's been in my lifetime (at least that I can remember ;)). So why is the oil and gas sector mixed? You'd think they'd all be green.

NATHAN LLOYD

07-13-2006, 03:34 PM

Slowing economy. All the institutions decided to push shorts today. It'll change soon. They haven't held SU down very much.

76.75

Svenwulf

07-13-2006, 03:50 PM

just doing some reading about heavy sour. seems like with the mild previous winter, and gasoline prices high, refiners will stay producing gasoline longer than normal, instead of switching to heating fuel. on a day like today takes some cajones to talk about cheaper gas, but i think your gasoline, perhaps even light sweet peeks between here and labor day. either from increase heavy sour refineing (less likely), lowering demad (very unlikely), or just the normal glut that follows every boom. just some ideas, and i am not planning on going out and shorting anything to do with petrolium.

PS- elections always have something to do with gasoline prices.. who benefits from high prices? i think the gop wants lower prices- jmo.

chinaman711

07-13-2006, 04:03 PM

Oil closes at a new record 76.70

chinaman711

07-13-2006, 04:48 PM

Oil was heading for $80 without all this turmoil in the middle east. Looks like it may see $85 now as Iran laughs all the way to the bank. Making money on oil and weapons.

NATHAN LLOYD

07-13-2006, 05:03 PM

Bush walked us into Iraq. If he would have just done some air strikes on the Talibon, we would be in 100 X's better shape right now. I can't wait till we get a new President!

aiki14

07-13-2006, 06:57 PM

April 07 futures traded to 80 today on the NYMEX. Some think it going at least that high by then, and thats probably going to turn out to be a hedge position.

madcowdisease

07-13-2006, 08:03 PM

Over $78/barrel in after hours.

Svenwulf

08-29-2006, 10:09 PM