GS here

[Horsefish]

Goldman will report next during the 3rd week of September. What are the chances that they will beat the newly lowered expectations? I'm thinking of starting to nibble.

[pa-sale]

Bought some today myself. I was hoping it will go lower.

[englishman26]

I think we'll be able to pick up some GS in the low 150s in the next couple of days.

I think everyone's concerns about how these firms are going to make money in the future are just being expressed more explicitly suddenly by these analysts. This is the reason I sold my GS a couple of weeks ago and I'd be concerned with getting in at all at the moment but it'll be tempting in the low 150s.

[pa-sale]

I think we'll be able to pick up some GS in the low 150s in the next couple of days.

I think everyone's concerns about how these firms are going to make money in the future are just being expressed more explicitly suddenly by these analysts. This is the reason I sold my GS a couple of weeks ago and I'd be concerned with getting in at all at the moment but it'll be tempting in the low 150s.



I agree with you Eman. I sold mine at 180ish and bought back and will continue to buy more. I have been trading this stock instead of buy and hold. Too fun. Enjoy.

[Lou]

Ive noticed the last few quarters when analysts have cut earnings for GS its been a buying opportunity.

[Horsefish]

Ive noticed the last few quarters when analysts have cut earnings for GS its been a buying opportunity.

Can't you just imagine the phone conversations where the GS people are negative enough with analysts to get their earnings expectations lowered far enough to guarentee making the numbers and sending the stock back up?

I am confident to the point that I opened a beginning position when it fell below 160 today.

[Lou]

Can't you just imagine the phone conversations where the GS people are negative enough with analysts to get their earnings expectations lowered far enough to guarentee making the numbers and sending the stock back up?

I am confident to the point that I opened a beginning position when it fell below 160 today.

Would love to hear those conversations....

[pa-sale]

153.xx.... looking interesting here. Anyone else picking today?

[englishman26]

Hit it's perfect low of 152.60 today and bounced. Have to wait tomorrow for confirmation but looking good to buy here.

[chacho]

Yeah set a limit at 154 around 3 today in case it dipped one last time while i was in class, but instead it went up. Maybe in the morning...

[englishman26]

I would cancel that limit in case it breaks that 152.60 level. If it goes higher tomorrow then I think it's a buy. If it breaks that 152.60 level then it could anywhere - maybe that low of 140, so be careful.

[chacho]

I would cancel that limit in case it breaks that 152.60 level. If it goes higher tomorrow then I think it's a buy. If it breaks that 152.60 level then it could anywhere - maybe that low of 140, so be careful.

Set for the day only, so already expired. But, I will be watching tomorrow :)

[Horsefish]

Their exposure to the ARS was far lower than most other Investment banks. Just 1.5 billion. That's lunch money to these guys. Now that the information is out, I am expecting a positive reaction tomorrow. Good luck all.

[stideas]

I think it goes down from here. By year end, I'm looking GS to be around 80 or less...

[aiki14]

I think it goes down from here. By year end, I'm looking GS to be around 80 or less...

Not even 1 chance in a thousand that GS goes to 100, the only reason it went to the level it did is because they let it. Insider and institutional buying at the 153 level started the uptrend, buy the stock long and hedge with cheap puts if you have any doubts.

[stideas]

Not even 1 chance in a thousand that GS goes to 100, the only reason it went to the level it did is because they let it. Insider and institutional buying at the 153 level started the uptrend, buy the stock long and hedge with cheap puts if you have any doubts.


Technical says, "a break here at 155 level and bye-bye GS..."

[aiki14]

Technical says, "a break here at 155 level and bye-bye GS..."

It broke down through 155 and recovered to close above open. I assume you mean a close below 155. Perhaps you would elaborate further on why you see it going to 80, certainly there is no technical analysis that indicates that is there? I can see where a case could be made for considerable support at the 155 level and a break down through that level would spell trouble with a singular candle support at 151 from 17 march and the next support below that is 2 yrs old around 148, but a price of 80 without a huge writedown of assets which is unlikely in the extreme would be a 3.7 P/E or so.
I think an equally meaningful case can be made for a reversal today as the majority of the volume was in the last two hours and to the upside even during the earlier part of the day. Institutional buying from 3:12-3:27 with a huge influx at 3:18 moved the price up 1% in 3 minutes. I think we'll see that kind of rescue buying at that level if it becomes necessary as too many big players are long GS as they got out of everything else over the last 6 months.
I think there is a better chance for a run up to 158+ tomorrow than a run down to 155-, but I guess we will see. I'll bet you a cheeseburger it's closer to 200 than 80 on 31 dec.

[Rich]

I see a reversal here, and possibly a strong one.
If it opens higher today, which I'm sure it will, I'm jumping in for at least a swing.

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=GS&p=D&yr=0&mn=3&dy=0&id=p04247058166

[pa-sale]

******Taken from a google blog, but i thought it was interesting... Again, I did not write this and cannot take credit for it*****

I posted a similar post back in March, but have updated numbers to
show how Goldman is now even more undervalued than before...please
read on and tell me what you think.

So I wrote quite an entry, but if you follow it, it should make
sense. Full disclosure, I do own GS stock, and plan on acquiring more
in the near future at these levels. That said, let me know what you
think

GS - Total Equity of 44.8 billion (net tangible assets of 39.5
billion)

Even if they announce a 3 billion dollar write-down tomorrow, that
leaves
equity of 41.8 billion. Now, lets just assume they have to write down
2 billion
a quarter for the next three quarters, being real aggressive on this
gives you equity of 35.8 billion, not counting future earnings in this
quarter that will increase the equity.

The lowest earnings estimate is $14/share for the next year, which
when multiplied by a
conservative 400 million shares outstanding give you $5.6 billion in
added equity to your $41.4 billion. Now that is your anticipated book
value 12 months from now assuming 9 billion in writedowns. And with
Goldman's market cap at $61 billion write now, that means you are
paying for $20 billion outside the book (61-41).

To take the dividend into account, lets use a higher number, since GS
should prob raise it over time. Dividend of 1.85 times the 400
million shares is 740 million a year to all shareholders. To take in
future years' dividends we discount at a conservative 10% to bypass
present value calculations, that yields an additional $7.4 billion in
the present value of dividend payments for investors (notice not
traders). Add that to the $41.4 billion, and you have a total of
$48.8 billion.

That means at a current market cap of $60 billion, you are paying a
(60-48.8) $11.2 billion for the company's future growth. Sounds
pretty good to me considering their earnings will be $8 billion/year
sometime within the next 5 yrs (their all-time high was 2007 with
$11.4 billion). Two years at $8 billion, and the rest is icing on the
cake. And as an investor, I am backing up the truck. GS is not going
down, and when this mess gets sorted out, the smartest guys in the
room will be at the front of the line again.

Remember my extremely conservative calculations take into account $9
billion of writedowns!!!!!

[Horsefish]

GS reports on 9/16. If they had their money where their mouth was (oil at 140) then they may be one of the big funds that are causing the strange movements in commodities lately. Sell off. Earnings estimates are at $2.90 per share for the quarter. I was in at 153 and exited at 167.

If they hit 150 two weeks from now I probably would start another position but not before the report. Thoughts?

[pa-sale]

I sold off my large position on the last run up and got back in at 160. I am not holding anywhere near the size that I was previously. I have no plan or intention on selling or buying before earnings. If they dip after earnings I will certainly pick some up and if they rocket up on the beat then I may sell out my position.

[ZaNoob]

GS has been very good to me. It should be due for a little pullback soon.

[Bolimomo]

GS' daily chart shows that it's approaching UBB (Upper Bollinger Band). Around 172 - 173. I will be tempted to short it at that price.

==========
Don't listen to me. I am a day-trader (cough, cough, a flip-flopper). I can change my opinion in 2 seconds.

[jrobbins]

I will be a buyer at $80. WAYYYYYYYYYY overvalued! But it will take some time to unwind. They're not any better, btw.

[Bolimomo]

I will be a buyer at $80. WAYYYYYYYYYY overvalued! But it will take some time to unwind. They're not any better, btw.

$80 /share for GS? How long are you willing to wait?

[aiki14]

I will be a buyer at $80. WAYYYYYYYYYY overvalued! But it will take some time to unwind. They're not any better, btw.

If GS is at $80 don't bother buying it because the sun will swallow the earth ten seconds later.

[jrobbins]

MER was $90 and LEH was $85 once. Look where they are now. GS is still way overvalued. Level 3 asset is higher than its peers.

If GS is at $80 don't bother buying it because the sun will swallow the earth ten seconds later.

[aiki14]

MER was $90 and LEH was $85 once. Look where they are now. GS is still way overvalued. Level 3 asset is higher than its peers.

I would debate the fact that it has "peers" and would be interested in where you come by the level 3 information.

I would say if GS is at 80 the DJIA would be at 9000 or lower, and there would have to be writedowns that are not on the horizon today. MER and LEH are brokerages, with hideous exposure to bad derivatives, GS rules the world, and they know where every body is buried. You simply cannot judge GS by what has happened to other firms.

[Horsefish]

Heads up. GS is down big in pre market. Was downgraded and is also falling in sympathy with LEH. Suspect that there is a trade here. They report earnings before market open on SEPT 16.

[stideas]

If it breaks 155 level, nobody can save it from going below 100...nobody.

sti,
http://stock-trading-ideas.com

[pa-sale]

If it breaks 155 level, nobody can save it from going below 100...nobody.

sti,
http://stock-trading-ideas.com

STI,


Can you explain that to me? It broke 155 a few months ago and went to 140ish before rallying. Just curious as to why you think that, I am always trying to learn.

PA-Sale

[stideas]

Take a look at the weekly chart on longer horizon and you will see what I'm talking about.

There is (was) a solid support near 140-150 area and it is breaching that level on increasing volume. Also you can see a classic head & shoulder pattern being formed on weeklys.

sti,
http://stock-trading-ideas.com

[Bolimomo]

Heads up. GS is down big in pre market. Was downgraded and is also falling in sympathy with LEH.


Would brokerage firms downgrade one of their own? Seems so "unprofessional" :wink:

Or maybe GS downgraded themselves? "Hey Mr. Investors... we don't think our firm is doing all that great so we self-downgraded..." LOL!

It does look pretty weak for today. I look for any unmeaningful rally to short.

[Bolimomo]

It does look pretty weak for today. I look for any unmeaningful rally to short.
I spoke too early. And I hope nobody listens to me (and nobody should).

The tail end of the day squeezed out all the shorts to bone dry... 153.00 to almost 160.00 in the last hour. 157.00 to 159.00+ in the last 3 minutes alone!!!

[jrobbins]

Yupe, but it's still going to $80, imho. GS level 3 asset. Sorry. Even Meredith Whitney reduced her estimate for the "king of the hill". JPM will be the new king of the hill. Bye GS.

I spoke too early. And I hope nobody listens to me (and nobody should).

The tail end of the day squeezed out all the shorts to bone dry... 153.00 to almost 160.00 in the last hour. 157.00 to 159.00+ in the last 3 minutes alone!!!

[Bolimomo]

GS was trading at 155.50 (closed at 159.50) in after hours though. Go figures... The shorts got squeezed out before close only to get insult added to the injury.

[jrobbins]

Roubini just said GS need to find a buyer soon. Bloomberg.

[stideas]

Look at the weekly chart of GS. It's a classic head & shoulder pattern. Expect it to go down. Its hard to digest that GS does not have any of these toxic waste...go figure :)

sti,
http://stock-trading-ideas.com

[john_for_u80]

Look at the weekly chart of GS. It's a classic head & shoulder pattern. Expect it to go down. Its hard to digest that GS does not have any of these toxic waste...go figure :)

sti,
http://stock-trading-ideas.com

http://www.bloomberg.com/avp/avp.htm?N=av&T=Roubini%20Says%20U.S.%20Financial%20Industry%20F acing%20%60Disaster%27&clipSRC=mms://media2.bloomberg.com/cache/vGSBVu4jp7qY.asf

[aiki14]

Ok, I have heard the nonsense about GS going to 100 or 80, and stideas has made the claim on a technical basis and jrobbins has made vague level three statements with nothing to back it up.
I am a believer in technical analysis but to assign a price 40% below current on that basis is beyond the ability of TA.
During the time the various financials have tanked 80% or more GS is down 25%, which is about where any stock with a beta of 1.83 would be based on just market forces. They are still 10% above their 52 week low while the others are out of business or setting new lows on the hour.
They have a short ratio of 1.4, and they had fewer shares short in aug than in jul, take a look at how the BSC and now the LEH failures occurred and note the short ratios going in. Look at MER making the deal essentially in a way designed to defend against shorts. Comparing the LEH's, the BSC's, and the MER's to GS doesn't fly.
GS has 939.18B in cash (mrq), and 400.66B debt (mrq), and a book value of 105.69/sh. 70% of shares are held by institutions and 7.58 by insiders.
Then there are the level three assets jrobbins keeps mentioning, but may not have a complete understanding of. The level three assets of BSC were almost entirely CDO's, MBS's, CMO's, and other derivatives associated with housing, and mortgages. But level three assets can be many things, timber and forestry assets for instance, or other illiquid but value constant assets. Just saying that GS has level three assets says nothing. Show me where the GS L3 assets are high risk derivatives, or associated with housing and mortgage backed securities or debts and you'll be saying something.

These guys sound like they have bets on GS to the down side, which is perfectly understandable, but are hoping for more than they are likely to get, or are short at the bottom. I realize this post can be taken for an attack, and I guess it is, but it's an adult game, and they can make their case, or attack mine.

[John Law]

Thanks for that summary, aiki. I might just add that Goldman's Level 3 assets actually went down last quarter while everyone else's was going up. They still have a lot, and that is still scary, but they are clearly the healthiest I-bank out there, although currently, that doesn't say much.

I might just add that it is hard for anyone to understand Level 3 assets, that's why they are thusly delineated, and that's what makes them troubling. Also, book value means nothing in this environment, or Wamu (among others) would be a lot higher than it currently trades at. Too much of the garbage is off-balance sheet stuff.

[pa-sale]

Aiki, or anyone knowledgeable about GS:

If GS does not break its 52 week low of 140.xx will this signal a bottom? The volume is crazy high today and earnings tomorrow.. its beaten down over 12.xx a share today... is that accounting for a miss tomorrow?

Thanks

[englishman26]

Aiki, or anyone knowledgeable about GS:

If GS does not break its 52 week low of 140.xx will this signal a bottom? The volume is crazy high today and earnings tomorrow.. its beaten down over 12.xx a share today... is that accounting for a miss tomorrow?

Thanks

No this is not accounting for a miss tomorrow. This is just speculation that the independent i-bank model is dead and GS are being dragged into the mire. It remains to be seen whether or not it's fair to paint them with the same brush or not - which mostly, as Aiki pointed out, they have not been if you look at the relatively small decline in their stock price so far.

[John Law]

No this is not accounting for a miss tomorrow. This is just speculation that the independent i-bank model is dead and GS are being dragged into the mire. It remains to be seen whether or not it's fair to paint them with the same brush or not - which mostly, as Aiki pointed out, they have not been if you look at the relatively small decline in their stock price so far.

I wonder what Paulson would do if Golman came to them seeking a bail-out?

[pedrom727]

I don't think GS will need a bailout unless they heavily leveraged their commodity positions which gave them pretty good profits in Q1 and Q2. They also reitirated several times their $150+ (forget exact figure) price target for oil so they might really be getting hit on those trades. I'm going to wait for earnings to start buying but this is definitely a company I'd like to own long term especially if it breaks the $140 level, I'll be accumulating in incremental purchases if it does.

[pa-sale]

Well it broke it.. into the 130's now.

[stideas]

This is not over yet. There is too much junk out there. Take a look at the 2nd page of this post where I had posted GS to be below 100 (80).

sti,
http://stock-trading-ideas.com

[aiki14]

GS reports in 50 minutes, here are the estimates:

Q3 EPS down 71% to $1.71, revenues down 49% to $6.231 billion

Q4 EPS down 42% to $4.09, revenues down 23% to $8.309 billion

FY 08 EPS down 43% to $14.03, revenues down 29% to $32.650 billion

Source: Thomson Reuters

Here are some key internals:

- Tier 1 ratio (was 10.8% last quarter)

- Residential mortgages ($15 billion in Q2, down from $19 billion in Q1)

- Commercial loans ($17 billion in Q2, down from $19.5 billion in Q1)

- Legacy loans ($14 billion in Q2, down from $52 billion in Q1) and

- Level III ratio (7% of assets in Q2)

Source: Briefing.com

[BuyOnDips]

Well they beat. But pre market doesn't look good. Down over 9%. Stay away from financials.

Best Buy also reported. They missed. I'd stay away from BBY too. I sold my shares when they announced the 2 billion dollar investment in a British Company. I thought it was a mistake. Now BBY doesn't have money for stock buy backs. Also, this Christmas might not be that good for electronic sales. BBY is probably a good short for the next 6 months. They are down over 8% in premarket.

[aiki14]

Well we are getting past any sense of reality at this point, they may well end up near 100. At that point we seriously have to consider a depression and a collapse of the financial system, potentially worldwide in scope.
If we get a follow up of yesterdays closing action we may see the capitulation sell off that has been predicted for 6 months.

[BuyOnDips]

Now GS is down 15% in premarket. SKF is surging.

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=gs

http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=skf

A scary market.

Jim Rogers was right all along.

[jrobbins]

117.82 on its way to 80. Told ya, aiki. :embarassed:

[aiki14]

117.82 on its way to 80. Told ya, aiki. :embarassed:

Still not close yet, and your reasoning was faulty. B/A now back above 118

[Rich]

Those of us who are long in GS and energy will have to wait years to recover.

Very sad

[John Law]

I like GS here. In at 121.

[jrobbins]

Buy GS as much as you can then! :welcome:)

Still not close yet, and your reasoning was faulty. B/A now back above 118

[stideas]

Too stretched to the downside. A bounce is obvious. But near term its headed below 100.

sti,
http://stock-trading-ideas.com

[Horsefish]

Every once in a while it helps to look up from the charts and look at a bigger picture. Sort of like stop staring at the tree and see what the forest looks like.

Look at what is happening here. There are now only two ibanks left. If you are a mutual fund or pension or endowment and you have to deversify, you will need to buy one of these. GS IS PROFITABLE even here. Who are you going to buy?

In again at 117. Buy it here, stick it in an IRA, sit back and call yourself a genius 3 years from now.

[stideas]

Every once in a while it helps to look up from the charts and look at a bigger picture. Sort of like stop staring at the tree and see what the forest looks like.

Look at what is happening here. There are now only two ibanks left. If you are a mutual fund or pension or endowment and you have to deversify, you will need to buy one of these. GS IS PROFITABLE even here. Who are you going to buy?

In again at 117. Buy it here, stick it in an IRA, sit back and call yourself a genius 3 years from now.

Don't know about you but I'm for sure not going to live that longer. So why sit and wait for GS to come back. I'd rather make some money in this trending volatile market.

Next maybe MS, GS, C or WM... who knows

sti,
http://stock-trading-ideas.com

[John Law]

Every once in a while it helps to look up from the charts and look at a bigger picture. Sort of like stop staring at the tree and see what the forest looks like.

Look at what is happening here. There are now only two ibanks left. If you are a mutual fund or pension or endowment and you have to deversify, you will need to buy one of these. GS IS PROFITABLE even here. Who are you going to buy?

In again at 117. Buy it here, stick it in an IRA, sit back and call yourself a genius 3 years from now.

You may have a point, but I got in for the quick trade today. In at 121, out at 133.5 and now I am just watching the market with a bag of popcorn. :)

[englishman26]

You may have a point, but I got in for the quick trade today. In at 121, out at 133.5 and now I am just watching the market with a bag of popcorn. :)

Just incredible to watch isn't it!

I betting on a fed bailout of AIG and a rate cut. I have my gold!

(I got some MER at 19 though too - couldn't resist - still holding it).

[aiki14]

Buy GS as much as you can then! :welcome:)

Thanks for the advice. got in at 119.60

[Horsefish]

You may have a point, but I got in for the quick trade today. In at 121, out at 133.5 and now I am just watching the market with a bag of popcorn. :)

LOL.....I did both. Manage three accounts. One for trades and two IRA's. Bought long in the IRA 1n at 117 and out at 133 for the trade. No sense in being to focused on one thing. Congrats on the fine trade!

[stideas]

GS is falling again......

Fed leaves interest rate unchanges :D

Enjoy the show as the drama unfolds....

sti,
http://stock-trading-ideas.com

[eatsmall]

have fun buddy. Money is nothing.:top:
And I found :withstupid: now. so just want to stay away from market for one or two days.

[aiki14]

Back in GS at 119.75, selling the 110 puts, hedging with the 120 puts.

[stideas]

aiki,

I hope you don't get burned on GS...

BTW, good strategy if you are an experienced trader. I'm looking to buy all puts on any bounce.

sti,
http://stock-trading-ideas.com

[aiki14]

aiki,

I hope you don't get burned on GS...

BTW, good strategy if you are an experienced trader. I'm looking to buy all puts on any bounce.

sti,
http://stock-trading-ideas.com

I'll bail on the stock at 115, my downside is around 3% max, right now I am up 2% in the stock and square on the puts. Plus I have 10X day leverage on the stock. I'll be alright on this.

[aiki14]

I am locked in now, puts cost me $3.11 net and the stock is up $6.50, I'll bail out at 123.25 now and sell back the 120 puts at that level and net 4%

[aiki14]

Out now, netted 4.5% on the entire position. Not too bad

[stideas]

Good for you aiki.

I'm not that quick to be in and out in a brisk. I'd rather play the underlying conditions and swing/momentum trade.

Right now swinging COF, CRM and DECK, all on the short side.

sti,
http://stock-trading-ideas.com

[stideas]

I think it goes down from here. By year end, I'm looking GS to be around 80 or less...

I was wrong in my calculation. I was expecting GS to be below 100 by year end. Look at my quote...

Wow! Take a look at GS today. Getting murdered....

Any brave souls out there holding GS in their IRA or retirement account?

God bless you!!!

sti,
http://stock-trading-ideas.com

[englishman26]

Wow - never thought I'd see GS at $105 again.

[Flyboy]

YIKES8O...I hold none, but wish I shorted:mad:

[John Law]

If GS is at $80 don't bother buying it because the sun will swallow the earth ten seconds later.

I'm starting to get concerned here...

[englishman26]

Ready the spaceship!

[aiki14]

Ready the spaceship!

Don't get on, it's a cookbook.

I should have held the 120 puts, but I wanted to unwind the whole position. We are maybe seeing the capitulation bottom, and we are maybe seeing oct 1929.

[pa-sale]

Don't get on, it's a cookbook.

I should have held the 120 puts, but I wanted to unwind the whole position. We are maybe seeing the capitulation bottom, and we are maybe seeing oct 1929.

Wow.. October 1929 eh? This is a true disaster.

[Bolimomo]

I hope that you longs are right about GS for your sake. IMO it is heading lower. I don't think it will see >140 any time soon.

I have been day-trading GS everyday. I have not seen it being so volatile for a long, long time. Today GS had almost a $30 range intraday. Volume over 100 million. I use 1-min charts. Usually a "70,000" shares per minute is considered "heavy" for GS. Today, it had some 450,000 shares/min bars. Volatility increased many fold. It ran down over $10 in 15-20 minutes in the morning, and ran up $15 in the same time in the afternoon.

Good luck to you all long term traders...

[aiki14]

I hope that you longs are right about GS for your sake. IMO it is heading lower. I don't think it will see >140 any time soon.

I have been day-trading GS everyday. I have not seen it being so volatile for a long, long time. Today GS had almost a $30 range intraday. Volume over 100 million. I use 1-min charts. Usually a "70,000" shares per minute is considered "heavy" for GS. Today, it had some 450,000 shares/min bars. Volatility increased many fold. It ran down over $10 in 15-20 minutes in the morning, and ran up $15 in the same time in the afternoon.

Good luck to you all long term traders...

The 5 period moving average on volume is over 250k per minute, amazing.

[Horsefish]

Bought it at 101 and sold at 110.50. $9 per share on 200 shares. My long position in the IRA took a hit. Tomorrow IMO we will see upturn. I think that there is more to the naked short selling ruling than is being considered in today's market. Same applies to MS. Listen to Aiki, he is trying to teach by example here.

[aiki14]

Also John Mack, and LLoyd Blankfein both called Chris Cox at the SEC to complain about improper short selling making their stock go down. It is also being reported that Hilary Clinton and Charles Shumer both also called Cox on their behalf. The SEC is in a meeting on the subject right now, according to Charlie Gasparino.

[chacho]

Picked some up at $105 here towards EOD for my IRA. Couldn't resist.

[aiki14]

GS held up at the end against a 250 pt down move in the DJIA over the last 90 minutes, on really heavy volume. I was in and out several times intraday and bought back in at 106 for an overnight hold.
The SEC meeting is gonna scare out any big money shorts, and we'll see a move up tomorrow regardless of the market.

[john_for_u80]

Florida did you get into GS at 100 when I mentioned? Made a perfect bottom pick with less risk and excellent reward ;)

It went up as I predicted on chat to 115.

From 100 to 107 then 111 then 115!

Hope you made some money :)

[Rich]

I'm reluctantly posting this:

9-9-2008


I would say if GS is at 80 the DJIA would be at 9000 or lower, and there would have to be writedowns that are not on the horizon today. MER and LEH are brokerages, with hideous exposure to bad derivatives, GS rules the world, and they know where every body is buried. You simply cannot judge GS by what has happened to other firms.

9-14-2008
Ok, I have heard the nonsense about GS going to 100 or 80, and stideas has made the claim on a technical basis and jrobbins has made vague level three statements with nothing to back it up.
I am a believer in technical analysis but to assign a price 40% below current on that basis is beyond the ability of TA.

Dow is near 10,000 and looking at today’s GS chart, it dropped down to $97.78 and recovered to $114.50. This shows me that even the best can be right and wrong at the same time. This post is NOT against Aiki, it is a post to show that Aiki was 100% right with a common sense market, but this ISN’T a common sense market, it's a 100% news driven knee jerk reaction market. I agree with Aiki that GS is different than MER and LEH, but everyone seems to be putting all finacials in the same boat, and the constant irritating bad news on brokers and the Feds makes everyone fear the entire financial market doesn't help, especially CNBC; "THE SKY IS FALLING!!! Its simular to a young lady hearing several disgrunted women talk about their bad marriages and conclude that all men are bad.

Now, is it possible that the fear will settle down and the REVERSE will happen, the knee jerk reaction will take place and GS and others who are sound companies will recover faster than they came down? Who knows, once again, this market is a crap shoot, there is no reasoning to it. When such sucessful and skilled people as Aiki are mystified to this ridiculous financial market, I have to admit, I’m shaking in my shoes…….. what hope do I have to even survive in this type of market.

Aiki, I certainly hope you don't think I'm picking on you, I just noticed how intelligent and experienced people as yourself state the facts and lately this market wrestles with all common sence. If I'm wrong I'm sure you will correct me. <G>

[Flyboy]

Florida did you get into GS at 100 when I mentioned? Made a perfect bottom pick with less risk and excellent reward ;)

It went up as I predicted on chat to 115.

From 100 to 107 then 111 then 115!

Hope you made some money :)

I'm gonna start visiting the shout box:mrgreen:

[jrobbins]

aiki14 just so you know I'm teasing you :) Please don't take my joke personally. I'm like that.

[aiki14]

I'm reluctantly posting this:

9-9-2008


9-14-2008


Dow is near 10,000 and looking at today’s GS chart, it dropped down to $97.78 and recovered to $114.50. This shows me that even the best can be right and wrong at the same time. This post is NOT against Aiki, it is a post to show that Aiki was 100% right with a common sense market, but this ISN’T a common sense market, it's a 100% news driven knee jerk reaction market. I agree with Aiki that GS is different than MER and LEH, but everyone seems to be putting all finacials in the same boat, and the constant irritating bad news on brokers and the Feds makes everyone fear the entire financial market doesn't help, especially CNBC; "THE SKY IS FALLING!!! Its simular to a young lady hearing several disgrunted women talk about their bad marriages and conclude that all men are bad.

Now, is it possible that the fear will settle down and the REVERSE will happen, the knee jerk reaction will take place and GS and others who are sound companies will recover faster than they came down? Who knows, once again, this market is a crap shoot, there is no reasoning to it. When such sucessful and skilled people as Aiki are mystified to this ridiculous financial market, I have to admit, I’m shaking in my shoes…….. what hope do I have to even survive in this type of market.

Aiki, I certainly hope you don't think I'm picking on you, I just noticed how intelligent and experienced people as yourself state the facts and lately this market wrestles with all common sence. If I'm wrong I'm sure you will correct me. <G>

No offense taken, I was wrong. That's why I take hedge positions.
I stand by the statement that T/A and level three assets were incapable of predicting this event, and the market at GS100 is teetering on the brink of disaster, let alone 80.

I also mildly disagree the market is a crap shoot, the events that took place over the weekend and then last night resulted in market days that were as predicted. Obviously there were individual stocks that moved in amazing fashion, GS and MS to be sure.

[Riddicks]

Florida did you get into GS at 100 when I mentioned? Made a perfect bottom pick with less risk and excellent reward ;)

It went up as I predicted on chat to 115.

From 100 to 107 then 111 then 115!

Hope you made some money :)

John you should just make the calls as they happen like what you are buying and selling or what we should buy and sell. Cause it sounds like you are making some great calls in this market on SKF and GS today, so please start a thread with the buys and sells like Albert had previously.

Real Time trades with time stamps, I would love to follow that. I would like to make some money too dude. Don't be selfish. lol. What do you think?

[Rich]

No offense taken, I was wrong. That's why I take hedge positions.
I stand by the statement that T/A and level three assets were incapable of predicting this event, and the market at GS100 is teetering on the brink of disaster, let alone 80.

I agree with this and was the purpose of my post. If you saw my post around the same dates I indicated that a reversal was to be expected, instead we got this crap!

I also mildly disagree the market is a crap shoot, the events that took place over the weekend and then last night resulted in market days that were as predicted. Obviously there were individual stocks that moved in amazing fashion, GS and MS to be sure.

Exactly, I agree. What I was trying to convey is don't rely only with T/A right now, the news is changing by the minute. This is why I who does not have the experience or time as you and others have are getting eaten alive. The crap shoot is the changing news issues. One can look at T/A all day and then one news item and its all 'crap'. <g>

Closing, thanks for understanding the spirit of my post.

Rich

[John Law]

No offense taken, I was wrong. That's why I take hedge positions.


So...you're saying that the whole sun swallowing up the earth thing is off now? Bummer.

I guess it's a good thing though; I was trying to figure out whether to buy solar in that event or short it. :mrgreen:

[aiki14]

So...you're saying that the whole sun swallowing up the earth thing is off now? Bummer.

I guess it's a good thing though; I was trying to figure out whether to buy solar in that event or short it. :mrgreen:

Actually I still think 80 is unlikely in the extreme, but I am hedging with SPF@30 and long LUX :cool2:

[John Law]

I kinda wonder if GS is headed for 80 or lower. I read an interesting 'quote' by John Mack (Morgan Stanley CEO) which gave me pause:

http://www.nytimes.com/2008/09/18/business/18wall.html?_r=1&oref=slogin


Seeking to avoid the kind fate that led Lehman and Bear Stearns to collapse, John J. Mack, Morgan Stanley’s chief executive, made an unsuccessful effort on Tuesday evening to persuade Citigroup’s chief executive, Vikram S. Pandit, to enter into a combination, according to people briefed on the talks.

“We need a merger partner or we’re not going to make it,” Mr. Mack told Mr. Pandit, according to two people briefed on the talks. Mr. Pandit, a former senior investment banker at Morgan Stanley, said Citigroup was not interested. It is thinking of deals it can strike with consumer banks, like buying the struggling Washington Mutual out of bankruptcy if its reported efforts to auction itself should fail, that would provide it with cheaper deposit funding. A Citigroup spokeswoman declined to comment.
************************************************** ********

Somebody tell me he did not say this in public.

[john_for_u80]

I'm gonna start visiting the shout box:mrgreen:

If you were there today on chat then you could have made another $10 move today on GS from 111 area to 105 area to 100 :)

If GS goes below yesterday's low, there is unlimited downside :)

Done for the day!

[john_for_u80]

John you should just make the calls as they happen like what you are buying and selling or what we should buy and sell. Cause it sounds like you are making some great calls in this market on SKF and GS today, so please start a thread with the buys and sells like Albert had previously.

Real Time trades with time stamps, I would love to follow that. I would like to make some money too dude. Don't be selfish. lol. What do you think?

I understand what you mean. I made calls on OTF chat (real time)!

I also made a call on OTF chat today back on shorting GS with more than a $10 move from 111 to 98 area (111 to 105, to 100 then near yesterday's low)!

I make calls on chat because they are not a daily chart moves but those moves are quick so people can watch on chat real time.

"Real Time trades with time stamps, I would love to follow that."

haha with time stamps. I don;t need to prove ;) I come on OTF chat if I find some move interesting because morning hour is the best hour to trade in this market!
Also don;t be surprised if I am not on OTF chat everyday to make a call because I am not paid service and not a full time trader :)

Also you are getting trained by WSE so I hope you are making a killing in trading. I would love to follow your thread if you put one on what you learned and what you trade :)
I am sure WSE must be peeping into the chat with some ID to see what is going on. He is not that straight types!
Good Luck!

[aiki14]

If you were there today on chat then you could have made another $10 move today on GS from 111 area to 105 area to 100 :)

If GS goes below yesterday's low, there is unlimited downside :)

Done for the day!

Are you saying you took a short position in GS this morning from 111 to 105 or 100? I don't think so. You may have watched it, or paper traded it, but you didn't get shares to short there.

The folks who sold those Sept100 puts on GS are gonna defend them today and tomorrow, no way it closes lower than 100.

[John Law]

MS looks very tempting here, trading way way below book value. Why are people shorting this so much? Are they having cash flow issues? I can't help feeling there's a big rebound here, but I thought that about AIG too.

I wish I was a supertrader like some of those guys in chat. Then I'd know what to do.

[Florida]

Are you saying you took a short position in GS this morning from 111 to 105 or 100? I don't think so. You may have watched it, or paper traded it, but you didn't get shares to short there.

The folks who sold those Sept100 puts on GS are gonna defend them today and tomorrow, no way it closes lower than 100.

Shares available to short at Tradestation, what make you think it cannot be shorted?

[john_for_u80]

Are you saying you took a short position in GS this morning from 111 to 105 or 100? I don't think so. You may have watched it, or paper traded it, but you didn't get shares to short there.

The folks who sold those Sept100 puts on GS are gonna defend them today and tomorrow, no way it closes lower than 100.

I hope you have heard of SKF :) Easy to short!

I don;t need to explain further!

Florida: Even TOS has GS to short!

[Horsefish]

MS looks very tempting here, trading way way below book value. Why are people shorting this so much? Are they having cash flow issues? I can't help feeling there's a big rebound here, but I thought that about AIG too.

I wish I was a supertrader like some of those guys in chat. Then I'd know what to do.


I have been thinking that Mack threw out the negociation with WB as a red herring to get funds to short MS while he is actually negociating with a much stronger partner. If he is able to put together a deal that sends MS stock rocketing up, he could really put the screws to anybody short and cover his company at the same time. That would be a thing of beauty.

[chacho]

Ouch, glad I had my stop at $110 this morning while in class.

[john_for_u80]

GS under water! Never underestimate any move or anyone ;)

[Bolimomo]

The longs should take notice. GS spike low was 85.88. 700,000 shares a minute! The price jump zig zag is $1! Those who use market orders are in for surprises...

It sure feels like the end of the world, with SPY going to 114...

[john_for_u80]

STT got royal hit!

[eatsmall]

It comes back. Don't worry. Be happy.

[eatsmall]

If you buy at 85, and sell now. 98.6. And do several times a week.
You are going to be a rich guy.
And it only takes only few minutes to do that. You can find how your life going to be.

[mlegha1]

Some one pushed SKF off the cliff.

[Bolimomo]

GS 85.88 spike low, bounced to 94-95, then double bottomed to 87, and bounced to 106. Very impressive! Technical Analysis in fast forward.

Another day pushing 100 million shares or so... it is 80 million now...

[Bolimomo]

I shorted GS on the leg down. It was a great ride. I shorted GS on the leg up. I was in a hot seat. Now 106 back down to 98... it will have some yo-yo action before prices would settle.

I have rarely seen SP bounced 40 points in 30 minutes...

[aiki14]

Charlie Gasparino just reported that Wall St. sources are saying paulson is working on a plan to get some of the toxic paper off the balance sheets of the brokers and I-B's, GS ran up $5 on the report.
And it squares with the presidents comments earlier
LOng GS at 97 on this

[jrobbins]

I personally think it's still going lower. I will be a buyer at $20.

Charlie Gasparino just reported that Wall St. sources are saying paulson is working on a plan to get some of the toxic paper off the balance sheets of the brokers and I-B's, GS ran up $5 on the report.
And it squares with the presidents comments earlier
LOng GS at 97 on this

[aiki14]

I personally think it's still going lower. I will be a buyer at $20.

It won't be today.

[aiki14]

Reuters is reporting Paulson is proposing a plan to congress, white house is not denying the report nor is treasury

[eatsmall]

If you went outside have a smoke. then come back. You made another $30/ Share now.:thefinger:

[aiki14]

Looks to be an RTC type deal, if it comes out tonight tomorrow will be as good a day as today looks to be now. The problem is the Gov't doesn't own the assets now as they did in the RTC deal. If Paulson buys the assets or gives them a value in some fashion it could be very market friendly, and if it doesn't take the form of a loan the shareholders may get a break this time.

[XOM]

Nice insight on GS Aiki, I had my doubts initially, hopefully for the market's sake it continues to hold.

[jrobbins]

Are you gonna keep buying on its way down to $20?

:biggrin: :biggrin:

It won't be today.

[aiki14]

Are you gonna keep buying on its way down to $20?

:biggrin: :biggrin:

Not if it happens next week. I'm taking some time off. We need a fourth on monday, so if you can spend some of that fortune you make on these sterling predictions, 7:32am tee time on the south course at Ka'anapali. If you're over 16 we'll let you drive the cart. :p

[XOM]

:hahaha:

[aiki14]

This has the potential to be my best day ever by 10am. GS likely to open at 145, MS at 34+. I am long GS at 97 and hold the MSJE (OCT 25) contracts avg'd at 3.08.

[Riddicks]

This has the potential to be my best day ever by 10am. GS likely to open at 145, MS at 34+. I am long GS at 97 and hold the MSJE (OCT 25) contracts avg'd at 3.08.

That, Aiki would be saying something. Good for you and I wish you all the best.

[pa-sale]

This has the potential to be my best day ever by 10am. GS likely to open at 145, MS at 34+. I am long GS at 97 and hold the MSJE (OCT 25) contracts avg'd at 3.08.

I would be so giddy. Good luck aiki.

GE, C, GS all of which I hold are skyrocketing in pre-market.. i am poised to do well myself. Lord knows I need it.

[XOM]

Looks like a few people will be experiencing some hubris today, lol.

Congrats on a well earned profit Jim.

[racingSK]

That was a great call on GS! Hope the rest of your day was great.

[Bolimomo]

GS went to 135 or so, twice! I was drooling to short it.

I don't normally trade options. Is there any issue (restrictions) on buying Oct GS 135 puts or Oct GS 140 puts? Worth using options to play the down runs?

[Riddicks]

Buffet puts down $5 Billion for GS on a heck of a deal.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/26858974/site/14081545?__source=yahoo|headline|quote|text|&par=yahoo

[bounced]

Anyone playing GS tomorrow? I'm looking for a gap up and a rally at market open as people drink the Buffet Kool-Aid.

[Stin]

Going to be watching for signs of too much koolaid drinking, then sell if they appear.

[Bolimomo]

Anyone playing GS tomorrow? I'm looking for a gap up and a rally at market open as people drink the Buffet Kool-Aid.
I would love to have been able to short GS. The GS put option 135/140 seems overpriced from all the volatilities. It's a fore-hand only game. I look to buy on dip.

[Keventerprises]

Anyone playing GS tomorrow? I'm looking for a gap up and a rally at market open as people drink the Buffet Kool-Aid.

Yes, I sold GS Oct 120 Puts at open this morning. The option was dropping fast and I couldn't sell it anywhere near the $10 previous close, but I got $7.00.

Great job Aiki!

[Florida]

from what I can see on my charts, GS is down to summer of '03 levels this morning.

Now where?

[JayIV]

GS @ 85 in premarket.

[Bolimomo]

from what I can see on my charts, GS is down to summer of '03 levels this morning.


GS went to below 90 for a blink on 9/18/08 before bouncing back up. When it reached 140 after the Buffet announcement I thought that was ridiculous... but unfortunately couldn't short at that time.

[Keventerprises]

I'm glad I bought back my GS Oct 120 Puts when the stock approached going below the SP.

I consider it a very bad sign that I have no naked (Short) Calls that are anywhere near in the money!

Thanks once again to Netwrangler for his recommendation on selling CVX Oct 90 Calls when the PPS was in the mid 80's. Today it went below 60. :top:

[Bolimomo]

GS held up fairly well today. SPY/AAPL/RIMM gapped(up)-N-crapped. GS gapped-N-crapped too, but not to the same extent. So GS is "relatively" strong. Closed at 123.75, relatively close to the day high of 127. Way above the Buffet Pivot 115.

Tomorrow if it split-opens, and the market helping, it might just shoot up to the 134-140 resistance area. If it does reach 134-140, I would be looking for reversal patterns to short. From 75 to 134 in just 3 days without a break? No way...

[jrobbins]

Hello aiki, still have GS? :mrgreen:

Please keep buying GS more until it goes all the way down to $4, Mr. Winner!

Pfffttt

Still not close yet, and your reasoning was faulty. B/A now back above 118

Not if it happens next week. I'm taking some time off. We need a fourth on monday, so if you can spend some of that fortune you make on these sterling predictions, 7:32am tee time on the south course at Ka'anapali. If you're over 16 we'll let you drive the cart. :p

[Bolimomo]

Please keep buying GS more until it goes all the way down to $4, Mr. Winner!


I hope not. I hope it won't break below 50. :-)

I need it to go back to 240! I love it more when it was at 240.

[cramerica1972]

I hope not. I hope it won't break below 50. :-)

I need it to go back to 240! I love it more when it was at 240.goldman shiat will NEVER reach $200 level again,they cant manipulate commodity prices anymore.

[Rich]

goldman shiat will NEVER reach $200 level again,they cant manipulate commodity prices anymore.

Great :-(
I'm screwed again...

[Bolimomo]

I enjoyed seeing GS doing a free fall near close. Broke below $55.

[Horsefish]

Got into Goldman at 79.57 today. If there is any news from Treasury over the weekend, there is bound to be a rally on Monday. Some announcement has got to come soon.

Unless they announce that banks are going to be nationalized of course.

[Bolimomo]

GS seems to be hitting a ceiling of $145.xx. The third time now. Will it break above? Tomorrow???

4419