Oil Hysteria

[Survivor]

Invade Canada! We get more oil from Canada and Mexico, than Iraq or Saudi Arabia.
The stock piles of reserves limits the exploration of finding more.

We have no way of knowing what the total supply is now or any time and never did. We can speculate on how much.
But that is all it is, Speculation.

Our elected officials think were a bunch of drooling idiots who need their expert coddling and advice.
They don't believe in supply demand so they decide to cure us of our oil addiction by proposing to
artificially raise oil's prices through taxes.
Only a politic can cook up a such stupid idea.

Gasoline tax in New York 44 cents, California 45 cents,Alabama 21 cents.
Political stupidity is in infinite supply most everywhere.
We will never get to the last barrel of oil and say it was fun while it lasted.

Colorado,Utah,Wyoming, estimated 2 trillion barrels, eight times more than the known oil reserves in all of Saudi Arabia.

Strategic oil reserve ordered to be kept filled by George Bush in 2001,the purchase of 28 million additional barrels have contributed to oil's rising prices in recent years.

If we ever used this oil in a big way in an emergency, it would make prices markedly lower than they would be other wise. That's what it is there for.

If you need more lies to raise the prices of oil and fuel, let me know---
I'm sure I could help fabricate some great ones.
If I can profit off your greed and stupidity, I'll get enough money to live on.

[snowdog99]

Here are a few interesting tidbits that give me pause to wonder just how long the "oil slide" will last:

1. In the 1990's, the Clinton administration mandated the use of low-sulfur gasoline fuel. This precipitated major reconfiguration in the way refiners crack crude into gasoline and other byproducts. One addition to the refining process, was a unit called a Delayed Coker (or DC unit). The DC unit produces low sulfur gasoline components, but is incapable of producing other important derivatives such as asphalt.

The DC unit and asphalt distillation units are fed by "vacuum bottoms" from the initial cracking unit. Because gasoline prices have been so high over the last several months, the asphalt distillation units must "compete" with the DC units for vacuum bottoms. The result has been that most refiners have diverted the bulk of the vacuum bottoms into the DC units to produce more gasoline. This has caused MAJOR shortages of asphalt during the peak construction season all across the country. Road repair and new construction projects have been delayed by as much as 1 year in many cases. Moreover, the price of asphalt, which was previously running at around $300 per ton, has skyrocketed to around $750 per ton.

So the question is, now that the demand (and price) for gasoline is falling, will the refiners simply begin diverting more of the vacuum bottoms into the asphalt distillation units to capitalize on the demand and high price for asphalt? If they do, then will the consumption of oil really fall all that much just because the demand for gasoline has fallen?

2. There is a major shortage of the light gas butadiene, which is a fundamental component in the manufacture of synthetic polymers and latex. These compounds are essential components in the manufacture of tires, rubber products, certain plastics, and important road construction additives. Contractors and major chemical companies can't even get their hands on butadiene right now. Again, since butadiene is a light off-gas component of oil refining, the refiners have reduced butadiene production in favor of producing more fuel. Now that the demand for fuel is softening, will the refiners simply divert more of the crude oil refining into production of light gases? If they do, will this offset the overall reduction in the consumption of crude oil caused by the drop in gasoline demand?

I would note that there is a HUGE backlog of orders for butadiene and asphalt right now, and prices are out-of-sight.

In short, refiners have produced more gasoline and diesel in response to high prices and demand; but this has been at the expense of producing other important byproducts. Now that the demand for fuel has subsided, why not just meet the demand for asphalt, light gases, etc.? That keeps profits up, and may not reduce the total overall consumption for crude over the intermediate term.

Any thoughts or opinions on this and how it might impact oil prices going forward?

[snowdog99]

One more thought on your "Invade Canada" comment....

Canadian oil is derived primarily from tar sands, which are energy and labor intensive resources to exploit. A recent article I read on the subject indicated that the cost of extracting one barrel of oil from Canadian tar sands was on the order of $40-$50 per barrel. Therefore, once one factors in the cost of transmission, storage, and a reasonable profit margin, it is clear the price of oil per barrel must be relatively high in order for the tar sand operations to continue at full-bore.

I would opine, that if oil prices fall too precipitously, oil sands production will be significantly curtailed. This will reduce supply, and once again, place upward pressure on oil prices.

On another note, if we do invade Canada, I hope we come up with a better plan than the one we used in 1812. :wink:

[Survivor]

Americas oil crisis. Gas supply down, oil goes up. Demand is lower, make up your mind already. Feel free to send the above thread to all the news wires.
It contradicts every lie they throw at us.

[Survivor]

Invade Canada was an off shoot of why the US is actually in Iraq. OIL.
If all the reserves are locked up and off limits and oil companies are not
using the leases they have already, it sets up for over priced oil.

The real Question is who do you believe? Many say it is going lower,some say higher.
If Dennis Gartman is running away from oil futures, something is wrong.
Vince Farrell, Don Luskin, too. Those three guy's are sharp and carry a lot of weight and respect. Legitimately.
Cramer says oil is going lower and he seems to be controlled by Goldman Sachs,
word on the street.
Allot of the heavy hitters say stay away and they are not buying.
Plus Congress is controlling how much oil is available to market. $$$

[Jelly]

This weekend should be interesting with Iran's deadline to be bitchlike comes due.

[madcowdisease]

It's no sceret on these boards I think oil's run was overblown. However, the fundamental flaw, in my opinion, is not supply and demand of the underlying commodity but the structure of the futures markets, the lack of profit potential elsewhere, and the backdrop in the news media and their propensity towards sensationalism. Wherever you turn there was an article about oil supply interuptions. Factor in you need ~10% down to control a crude contract and the outlets for gains in a falling market are mitigated (relative to the last two asset bubbles caused by Greenspan - tech and housing) and you set yourself up for a run in crude.

I see the fair market value for crude in the 60-75 dollar region depending on season and obviously demand. Problem is, I am not willing to bet it goes down that far unless the SEC steps in and requires a larger deposit on contracts. There will always be speculators as long as a 10% upside move in the underlying contract yields a 100% gain in the principal holding a contract. We ought to see a 50% deposit requirement but Id' even be happy with 20%. In the least cut the purchasing power in half by doubling the deposit requirement.

[Survivor]

The CFTC should make sure you can actually take delivery of these so called oil barrels and have to store them,
with proof of a location, state or Federal certified. That would crush them futures contracts right now.
I bet a barrel wold drop down to 50.00. Of course there is no speculation in the oil market.

[Survivor]

Last but not least, they need to change that law that states oil can only be bought in US dollars. The Kissenger deal circa 1973-74. Money based on liquid it beyond comprehension. Do a Google search and ye shall see.

[Survivor]

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Spammin Bastards :thefinger:

[Survivor]

Oil inventories are fine, gasoline is down due to the lack of demand.
$5.50 on nothing that concerns either, short sellers. Blame Russia? so what?

Your money is lost if in fact there is any real turmoil. Risk.
How would you ever collect on truth? Try it.

The fear is, you are not a great investor because you don't really know how to
make money other than the overpricing commodity's.

They lack any real innovation other than fabrication of tall tails.
The tools of printed paper, media, the fear of losing money.

You should have seen the size of that fish, of course you never will.
When you die, they will have to screw you into the ground so it don't spit you back out.

[madcowdisease]

Oil inventories are fine, gasoline is down due to the lack of demand.
$5.50 on nothing that concerns either, short sellers. Blame Russia? so what?

Your money is lost if in fact there is any real turmoil. Risk.
How would you ever collect on truth? Try it.

The fear is, you are not a great investor because you don't really know how to
make money other than the overpricing commodity's.

They lack any real innovation other than fabrication of tall tails.
The tools of printed paper, media, the fear of losing money.

You should have seen the size of that fish, of course you never will.
When you die, they will have to screw you into the ground so it don't spit you back out.


It was up $5.50 on the fact the chart for oil, you can reference USO, broke its downward trendline. The almighty chart has been dictating oil's path since October of 2007. We still have a declining MA50 so expect it to consolidate here a little and then head lower to continue the trend.

[Survivor]

Here we go... oil up, market manipulation at its finest.
I have 5000 paper oil barrels for sale...
Also I have 1000 shares of PBR to sell, as it should double today...
Even if a hurricane hits, the IEA will release oil from the strategic reserves...
Just an experiment... Today fear of... another short covering, perhaps...

[Survivor]

Oil @110.90 today, dam, losing money... mean trick... Wall St. is eating paper barrels.
OPEC says a 100.00 a barrel is fine... Choke and Die... Its still to high...Rich liars...
I bet they hi jack it Tuesday...

[Survivor]

Cramer says were running out of oil? where? out of lies, never manipulation.

[Survivor]

Today's Barrons, a story by Lawrence C. Strauss.:thumpdown:
Interview with Charles Maxwell. Senior energy analyst, Weeden & Co.
Arjin Murti, Mr. Crude. :thefinger:

Now their at it again with more fiction. $150,00, $300.00 a barrel...
Tells me their over bought and can't wait to off them paper barrels on
some greedy suckers.:idea:

The National Enquirer has more credibility.

[Horsefish]

This Govt. takeover of fnm/fre could cause the dollar to tank again. Since oil is priced in dollars, it will take more dollars to buy a barrel of oil. The connected boys at Goldman Saks saw it comming and reiterated their call for 130.00 a barrel. If the dollar tanks then issues of "demand destruction" and "speculation" will take a back seat for a while.

There will be a situation comedy on TV someday that is about retail investors trying to make money during these years. It will be hilarious.

[Survivor]

Wall St. is the official U.S. terrorist network...

The stupid ass Government bails out the greedy vultures...
M**** F*****'*... :thefinger:

[Survivor]

Pissed off the shorts today as they hi jack oil prices.
No imagination.

[Survivor]

9-22, 128.60, what a jump. boil in oil losers

[XOM]

This Govt. takeover of fnm/fre could cause the dollar to tank again. Since oil is priced in dollars, it will take more dollars to buy a barrel of oil. The connected boys at Goldman Saks saw it comming and reiterated their call for 130.00 a barrel. If the dollar tanks then issues of "demand destruction" and "speculation" will take a back seat for a while.

There will be a situation comedy on TV someday that is about retail investors trying to make money during these years. It will be hilarious.

Seriously, whatever GS says the price of oil will be...just go with it, they're either the smartest guys in the market or the most manipulative...incredible.