economy crisis?

[godoftrading]

I think so!

- Mortgage rates rising, at 5.85% for a 30 year fixed
- Nonborrowed bank reserves now at -111,855,000,000 as of May 21st!!! http://www.federalreserve.gov/relea...ist/h3hist4.txt
- BANKS ARE BROKE!! THEY ARE ILLIQUID, ONLY THING SAVING THEM IS THE FED.
- Home sales still on the decline
- Record supply of single family homes
- Banks still not lending to consumers
- Oil near all time highs
- Banks trading at all time lows
- Real rate of inflation near double digits (? probably)
- Gasoline above $4.00 a gallon for regular unleaded
- Diesel fuel up to $5.00 a gallon
- Consumer confidence at 12 year low
- Take out commodities backed companies and earnings are down 20%+
- Unemployment projected on the increase
- Dollar still near all time lows (Yippee we have gained .03 on the Euro.... lets have a party all our problems are fixed)


Oh yeah, this is already priced into the market. lol

We are trading only ~5% off for the year!

What else do you have to read to see this is not a healthy environment?

[John Law]

Preach it, brother! :top:

The only point I disagree with is the 'banks are not lending to consumers' thing. I read a lot about that in the news, but in practice it doesn't seem to be true. Credit restrictions, at least for the company I work for, are still very loose, as are mortgage loans, although the spread over the 10-year treasury rate is certainly higher than before.

This could be just a local thing though. In Portland, house prices and the economy in general really haven't fallen off much as they have in other places. Inflation on food and energy is the only real manifestation of the downturn that I have seen here so far.