MXC

[Supreona]

Anybody know when MXC reports, could be a major explosion like PDO. I cant find the info.

[LeoR2D2]

Don't! Get! Eliminatedddddd!

[Florida]

Anybody know when MXC reports, could be a major explosion like PDO. I cant find the info.

Can't find a date anywhere, but they last reported on 2-18-08, so they should be reporting soon.

Any pop with earnings would be a signal to short in my opinion, as the stock just does not look like it can support the current PE of over 80, let alone a higher level.

It has been trading in lock step with PDO, but has an unattractive debt to cash ratio compared to PDO, a PE that is twice that of PDO, and technically, is WAY overbought. A 300% runup in less than a month, and close to 40% in one day is just a bit much, (may be a good candidate for the weekly challenge as a short?). Both MXC and PDO have runup over double any other stock in their industry over the past month, and over 10 times the average move of the industry as a whole.

Granted, oil and gas have been on a tear, but it seems obvious to me that these 2 are way over done with the momentum, and will probably pull back to more reasonable levels with their peers, (PDO already pulled back 10% from it's high today).

JMHO, as always

[Supreona]

Can't find a date anywhere, but they last reported on 2-18-08, so they should be reporting soon.

Any pop with earnings would be a signal to short in my opinion, as the stock just does not look like it can support the current PE of over 80, let alone a higher level.

It has been trading in lock step with PDO, but has an unattractive debt to cash ratio compared to PDO, a PE that is twice that of PDO, and technically, is WAY overbought. A 300% runup in less than a month, and close to 40% in one day is just a bit much, (may be a good candidate for the weekly challenge as a short?). Both MXC and PDO have runup over double any other stock in their industry over the past month, and over 10 times the average move of the industry as a whole.

Granted, oil and gas have been on a tear, but it seems obvious to me that these 2 are way over done with the momentum, and will probably pull back to more reasonable levels with their peers, (PDO already pulled back 10% from it's high today).

JMHO, as always

I'd have to agree with you here my friend, if there is a pop with MXC it'll be short lived. I think PDO is done, the killer earnings report has been delivered and the run is over. I expected it to accelerate up to the earnings call, but thats it. MXC should follow suit after reporting. I'd be on the lookout for another mimic, small oil and gas company that could run. Honestly I don't expect the price of oil to come down any time soon, but these companies are done. I'd be on the lookout. R u buying anything now Florida?? I'm thinking about snapping up some OPTM monday, tell me what ya think about it.

[Supreona]

MXC is up 40% and PDO is up 10%...r u serious.

[Florida]

MXC is up 40% and PDO is up 10%...r u serious.

spread on MXC has been as much as $2, no way to play this in real life

[Supreona]

spread on MXC has been as much as $2, no way to play this in real life

I would have to strongly disagree with you here, I played PDO, had the same type of crazy spreads. You can buy it just like anything else. Just might give you a nervous breakdown is all.

[Florida]

MXC trading halted at 11:06, news pending

[Supreona]

I think this is about to get crazy.

[john_for_u80]

I think this is about to get crazy.

Hope you are in this!

DAMN! What a jump in 2 days.

[Supreona]

Hope you are in this!

DAMN! What a jump in 2 days.

John...I sucked today. I bought KAZ, which I'll be selling momentarily, had way better options.

I considered NCOC and OPTM, NCOC up 10% and OPTM up 13%. Kaz down 2%. I could have held my PDO shares for an even greater gain. Thinking about buying some FPP tomorrow.

[Supreona]

Can't find a date anywhere, but they last reported on 2-18-08, so they should be reporting soon.

Any pop with earnings would be a signal to short in my opinion, as the stock just does not look like it can support the current PE of over 80, let alone a higher level.

It has been trading in lock step with PDO, but has an unattractive debt to cash ratio compared to PDO, a PE that is twice that of PDO, and technically, is WAY overbought. A 300% runup in less than a month, and close to 40% in one day is just a bit much, (may be a good candidate for the weekly challenge as a short?). Both MXC and PDO have runup over double any other stock in their industry over the past month, and over 10 times the average move of the industry as a whole.

Granted, oil and gas have been on a tear, but it seems obvious to me that these 2 are way over done with the momentum, and will probably pull back to more reasonable levels with their peers, (PDO already pulled back 10% from it's high today).

JMHO, as always

...I guess we both were a little quick with our calls on the momentum ya think?

[Jordan]

Are there any other small oil/gas plays that have the potential to run like these two?
I am going to look around, I haven't played PDO or MXC but would love to get in another in the early stage of a runup

[Supreona]

Are there any other small oil/gas plays that have the potential to run like these two?
I am going to look around, I haven't played PDO or MXC but would love to get in another in the early stage of a runup


Hey Jordan, the next one I had on my radar was FPP, but I chickened out and didn't buy it, I actually chose KAZ(dumb move), but we all make mistakes every now and then. I would keep a close eye on FPP and look for an entry if you still think it has potential.

[Jordan]

I have never tryed these types of plays when the RSI is already very high, but it seems they just keep going up...I wish I could have got into FPP this morning, but now I don't know which way it will go

Do you think KAZ is done?

I am looking for more petroleum plays now

[Supreona]

I have never tryed these types of plays when the RSI is already very high, but it seems they just keep going up...I wish I could have got into FPP this morning, but now I don't know which way it will go

Do you think KAZ is done?

I am looking for more petroleum plays now


Im skeptical about KAZ, they report earnings in June, could be a serious pop there and a nice run up until then(if you wanna risk it), but I'm hesitant to jump in after being dissapointed today. MXC up 42%, FPP up 36%, PDO up 16% (all today) and KAZ decides not to join the fray. What the f***?, but I would be vigilant Jordan, who knows. Oil is on a TEAR, plain and simple. You could have bought PDO @ 14.80 when it was up 66% on the day and it still went up to $19. It would hurt me 2 see FPP @ $10 or higher in the coming weeks knowing I had an opportunity to take a position. I'll wait on an entry, if I don't see one I'll just wait on the sidelines and try to pick up something else.

I hear ya about the RSI though, I think the RSI is extremely important also, but I'm more tuned into the actions of the traders, what they do with the stock. Humans are very predictable (Coffee and Newspaper every morning, taking the same route everyday to work...etc theory). GREED will only allow them to buy the stock up so far until the FEAR sets in...and then its every trader for themselves.

[Supreona]

They're running...again. MXC is up almost 40% for crying out loud. Of course theres no way I would jump in now, but WOW.

[Supreona]

MXC up 50%...

Started its run on April 18th, closing at $5. Now $44...you do the math.

[john_for_u80]

MXC up 50%...


That is amazing. Did you get into FPP?

[Supreona]

That is amazing. Did you get into FPP? What do you think is the next rocket? :)

I'm looking to enter FPP John, if I find a suitable entry, a precise and timed entry, I wouldn't do anything that would be reckless or that would make me vulnerable. If I jump in, I'll definitely let it be known.

[Supreona]

Also, don't let a great opportunity pass because of fear mongers, more often than not, these are just agitated traders who are mad because they didn't get a piece of the pie, and they are utterly fearful of momentum. Don't let them infect you with their fear. A stock can do 30% one day and turn around and do 40% the next, it just has to be the RIGHT stock at the RIGHT time. I have a personal target which I adhere to. Remember theres a reason why its running in the first place. Can a stock become overvalued...sure and ultimately it will come down, as is typical of most stocks that experience ENORMOUS gains, fear mongers would rather you have a MINIMAL gain but don't be pushed out early by fear. Often they'll chalk up their "less than sunny dispositions" to being conservative or they'll attempt to recall past events in which this or that happened. ADVICE is good...INSTRUCTION should be your call.



BEWARE.

[john_for_u80]

Thanks! What do you think of EWST? It came out of squeeze after a year.

[Supreona]

Thanks! What do you think of EWST? It came out of squeeze after a year.

Check ur PM'z john.

[Florida]

I'm looking to enter FPP John, if I find a suitable entry, a precise and timed entry, I wouldn't do anything that would be reckless or that would make me vulnerable. If I jump in, I'll definitely let it be known.

FPP has had several precise timed entry points today, with very low risk. The first was when it broke above the congestion after the first 15 minutes of trading and ran for almost $1 with about a $.30 risk if you used today's low as a stop. Then again at about 11:20 when it broke out of the channel, again with about a $.30 risk if you used the bottom of the channel, and ran for another $.60, (I guess you would say I'm agitated as I only got a total of $1.14 per share on 1000 shares on these 2 runs). Then at about 11:40, it showed clear exhaustion on the run to the high of the day (so far), and reversed for $.87, (again, still agitated as I only got $.48 on a 1000 shares on this move).

Stocks can certainly run 30% one day, and then match or beat the run the next day, but for everyone that does, I can show you 5 that don't. It's strictly momentum at that point, and has nothing to do with fundamentals or common sense for that matter.

The sides of the "trader highway" are littered with those that try and play these momentum stocks and loose. Too many believe that if it went up 30% today, it will repeat the next day, so they hold the stock overnight, enter when an interday move is showing exhaustion, running into calculated resistance, or even worse, they will not pay attention to spreads or volume. As a result, they end up loosing all their capital and they don't live to play another day.

Momentum is something to fear, as it has no logic.

If I may recall a past event, I will just point out that when I closed my second position of the day at $6.01, somebody bought it from me and is now down $.50 per share. Will it go back up and make them whole? Probably, but I don't really care, my money is "in the bank" so to speak. If that makes me one of the conservative traders, so be it.

signing off for now,

One of, if not THE "fear monger"

[john_for_u80]

Thanks! What do you think of EWST? It came out of squeeze after a year.

I did reply you back. Also BEXP looks good.

[Florida]

I'm looking to enter FPP John, if I find a suitable entry, a precise and timed entry, I wouldn't do anything that would be reckless or that would make me vulnerable. If I jump in, I'll definitely let it be known.


Considered another long entry when it broke out of consolidation at about 2:30, but didn' t enter as it appears to have developed a head and shoulders pattern. May be missing out on something here, but I guess it's my conservative side speaking to me.

[Jordan]

Watching VSE, might be the next runner

[Supreona]

FPP has had several precise timed entry points today, with very low risk. The first was when it broke above the congestion after the first 15 minutes of trading and ran for almost $1 with about a $.30 risk if you used today's low as a stop. Then again at about 11:20 when it broke out of the channel, again with about a $.30 risk if you used the bottom of the channel, and ran for another $.60, (I guess you would say I'm agitated as I only got a total of $1.14 per share on 1000 shares on these 2 runs). Then at about 11:40, it showed clear exhaustion on the run to the high of the day (so far), and reversed for $.87, (again, still agitated as I only got $.48 on a 1000 shares on this move).

Stocks can certainly run 30% one day, and then match or beat the run the next day, but for everyone that does, I can show you 5 that don't. It's strictly momentum at that point, and has nothing to do with fundamentals or common sense for that matter.

The sides of the "trader highway" are littered with those that try and play these momentum stocks and loose. Too many believe that if it went up 30% today, it will repeat the next day, so they hold the stock overnight, enter when an interday move is showing exhaustion, running into calculated resistance, or even worse, they will not pay attention to spreads or volume. As a result, they end up loosing all their capital and they don't live to play another day.

Momentum is something to fear, as it has no logic.

If I may recall a past event, I will just point out that when I closed my second position of the day at $6.01, somebody bought it from me and is now down $.50 per share. Will it go back up and make them whole? Probably, but I don't really care, my money is "in the bank" so to speak. If that makes me one of the conservative traders, so be it.

signing off for now,

One of, if not THE "fear monger"

...set the cheese in the trap and let em come get it. SNAP!!!!

[Supreona]

Watching VSE, might be the next runner

Where do you see VSE at in a couple of days?

[Jordan]

Where do you see VSE at in a couple of days?

I am watching becasue it is an energy play, the bands are getting tighter, and I was hoping it would gain some momentum after yesterday's nice gain.

Just something to watch

[Jordan]

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=peix

PEIX is another high flyer....mentioned on fast money last night

[Jordan]

PDO, FPP, and MXC still flying high!
Are they ever going to stop?!?!

[Florida]

PDO, FPP, and MXC still flying high!
Are they ever going to stop?!?!


Yes, they will stop, when is another question. Based on the volume for the 1st 15 minutes of trading today, I would say we are at if not close to the top.

(of course, I have been wrong before, but not yet today, but the day is young)

[Supreona]

PDO, FPP, and MXC still flying high!
Are they ever going to stop?!?!

People are buying MXC @ $51...PDO @ $27 and FPP @ $7. People are buying MXC @ $51!!!!!

FPP is @ $7, Jordan, you and I both know that the FPP buyers are using MXC and PDO as measuring sticks. Does it defy logic...sure...I don't care about logic, I care about profits, I want in on whats hot, not whats correct, something like google doesn't make much sense to me it defies logic the market itself defies logic, but thats where I think they're willing to push it to. I see FPP in the teens if not the $20 range in the near future. In the event that MXC and PDO stall or reverse...guess where that volumes coming to...FPP.

MXC ran from $5 to $55.
PDO ran from $4 to $28 and its probably still not done.
FPP ran from $4 to $8 and I'm positive its not done, will it pull back?? Possibly, I would even expect it to after such an enormous gain, but its just to cheap in regards to its counterparts.

One of these kids is not like the others.

P.S. Oil hit another record high today...

[Supreona]

Yes, they will stop, when is another question. Based on the volume for the 1st 15 minutes of trading today, I would say we are at if not close to the top.

(of course, I have been wrong before, but not yet today, but the day is young)

Don't heckle us while you're standing on the wall, we came to this party to dance toots. Just stand over there and look pretty.

[Florida]

Don't heckle us while you're standing on the wall, we came to this party to dance toots. Just stand over there and look pretty.


Certainly not standing on the wall. ! short and 2 long plays already this morning. How about you? are you dancing, or just listening to the music?

[Supreona]

Certainly not standing on the wall. ! short and 2 long plays already this morning. How about you? are you dancing, or just listening to the music?

:laugh: I knew u were in buddy, I'm just messin wit ya. Of course I'm on the dance floor too...wait they're playin my song, I'll be right back.

[Jordan]

KYUS might be one too watch...another energy play on a tear

[Jordan]

KYUS might be one too watch...another energy play on a tear

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=kyus

[Florida]

for anyone that is interested, a brief synopsis from briefing.com on momentum trades:



TALKX Floor Talk follow-up: How "momentum themes" tend to develop -Update-

We mentioned numerous times over the past 48 hours the Micro-cap Energy momentum theme that has sent some previously unknown energy names skyrocketing, and all you have to do is check the percentage gainers list today to see that -- for this morning at least -- it's still in effect (the top percentage gainers today in order are all micro-cap energy: SSN +75%, FPP +41%, BDCO +38%, MXC +29%, PDO +21%, LEI +17%... see 11:14 comment). Rather than recap the specific circumstances that drove these names, we'd like to discuss in general terms how these momentum "themes" develop. It seems that maybe once or twice a year these mini-bubbles suddenly pop up out of nowhere, and they typically last anywhere from a few days to a few weeks. Right now it's micro-cap energy, but last year it was small-cap China stocks, and a number of years ago we saw brief, huge rallies in bird flu plays, stem cell stocks, Tsunami plays, homeland security stocks, etc... In terms of identifying these themes in their early stages, they all form out of different circumstances, but they do tend to have a few characteristics in common early on: 1) a sudden macro catalyst, 2) a co-specific news event that leads to a huge percentage gain in a previously unknown microcap stock, and 3) a broadening out where other related stocks rally and hold onto their gains (as opposed to seeing the usual intraday sympathy play chop-down)... So for example, the current craze in micro-cap energy stocks is ultimately being driven by the accelerating rally in the price of oil during the past week (point #1). Normally, this might not be enough to move the often low-quality micro-caps, but then you had an extremely bullish earnings report by PDO last Thursday (point #2), which not only led to an attention-getting 60% gain for the stock that day, but induced momentum traders to scramble to find other sympathy plays. The broadening out phase (point #3) occurred when we saw a succession of positive press releases by other, similar US-based energy co's (MXC, CLR, SSN), while the backdrop of new highs in crude oil continued to make headlines each day... So in short, while past momentum themes all had different origins, they all required a definable macro event, and were followed by a quick succession of co-specific news items (for example the above-mentioned themes had macro backdrops respectively of a bubble in the Shangai index, high-profile stem cell legislation, the Indonesian tsunami, 9/11 -- and were followed by a number of positive company news items that kept gapping up the microcaps involved)... So how do they end? They tend to peter out when the macro catalyst stops making headlines, and when the stocks themselves have seen 3-5 days of successive gaps higher. We're not going to hazard a prediction as to when the current micro-cap energy craze ends, but we just wanted to point out some of the similarities between the current theme with those that have occurred in the past.

[balkanboy]

So from the looks of it, you all are saying ride FPP??? ;)
I want in so bad, but have such a big fear of losing what little I have.

[Jordan]

So from the looks of it, you all are saying ride FPP??? ;)
I want in so bad, but have such a big fear of losing what little I have.

I am in the same boat as you are

[Florida]

So from the looks of it, you all are saying ride FPP??? ;)
I want in so bad, but have such a big fear of losing what little I have.

What I am saying is trade the heck out of it, but don't "ride" it.

Each day that it continues to run like it has is decreasing the odds of it continuing into another day. I would never hold a stock like this overnight, long or short, as you simply cannot predict when the run will end, and it will end.

Very tradable patterns have shown up on this stock in the past couple of days, and unlike PDO and MXC, spreads have been tight enough to make a reasonable trade.

(by the way, MXC has just dropped $6 in the past 25 minutes and FPP has dropped over a dollar, I had to hold on finishing this post as I have been in FPP short since $7.75 at about 2:10 PM and just exited the short at $7.00)

[Jordan]

http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=kyus

still has momentum...looking for an entry point in the morning

[Florida]

out of another long for $.50, that makes 4 long plays and 3 short plays today for a total of $3.55!!

How's your dancing going Sup?

[Supreona]

:laugh:, Oil hit another record high today...aaannnddddd crude inventories are down by 5.4 million barrels, can we say d-e-m-a-n-d...don't lose your shorts toots, don't show us that pretty thong just yet.. You did the smart thing by closing out that short position. You'd be f****** nuts to leave that out there.

[Supreona]

What I am saying is trade the heck out of it, but don't "ride" it.

Each day that it continues to run like it has is decreasing the odds of it continuing into another day. I would never hold a stock like this overnight, long or short, as you simply cannot predict when the run will end, and it will end.

Very tradable patterns have shown up on this stock in the past couple of days, and unlike PDO and MXC, spreads have been tight enough to make a reasonable trade.

(by the way, MXC has just dropped $6 in the past 25 minutes and FPP has dropped over a dollar, I had to hold on finishing this post as I have been in FPP short since $7.75 at about 2:10 PM and just exited the short at $7.00)

Duuhhh Florida, of course its going to end, as all bubbles always do. Nobody ever said it would last forever, I mean what is this...Narnia?? Nobodys riding unicorns over here my friend.

[Jordan]

Supreona, whats your thoughts on KYUS?

[Supreona]

Check your PM'z Jordan.

[Supreona]

MXC,PDO & FPP all pulling back. I would pick up shares or add here. Oil still going higher, obviously its a mad rush to take profits today. Oil will remain firm at this level or go even higher.

[Jordan]

KYUS going higher

[Supreona]

Oil Rises to a Record After Pickens Says Prices May Reach $150

By Mark Shenk
Enlarge Image/Details

May 20 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose above $129 a barrel in New York for the first time after billionaire hedge-fund manager Boone Pickens said oil will reach $150 a barrel this year because supply isn't keeping up with demand.

Producers are ``running out of oil,'' Pickens, the founder and chairman of Dallas-based BP Capital LLC, said on CNBC today, reiterating comments he made to Bloomberg News on April 29. Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Deutsche Bank AG also said in the past month that prices would rise.

``It's not just Boone Pickens; just about every big global bank has raised its price forecast in recent weeks,'' said John Kilduff, vice president of risk management at MF Global Ltd. in New York. ``When prices last fell below $20 in 2001 there was a surplus. That's no longer the case. There's now a deficit.''

Crude oil for June delivery rose $2.02, or 1.6 percent, to settle at a record $129.07 a barrel at 2:56 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange after reaching an all-time high of $129.60. Prices have doubled from a year ago. A strengthening of the euro against the dollar added to the gains.

The June contract expired today. The more-active July futures contract rose $2.26, or 1.8 percent, to settle at $128.98 a barrel. Contracts for delivery in 2011 and 2012 rose more than 4 percent, a signal that investors don't expect prices to drop. The contract for December 2016 climbed $9.52, or 7.3 percent, to $139.50 a barrel.

Oil advanced above $127 for the first time on May 16 when Goldman Sachs boosted its estimate for the second-half of the year to $141 a barrel, from $107, citing supply constraints. Credit Suisse Group AG and Societe Generale SA raised their oil price forecasts for 2008 and 2009 today, citing investor flows and limited supply.

The weakening dollar prompted the purchase of commodities as a hedge against the currency's decline. The European Central Bank may keep rates at a six-year high to curb inflation.

German Prices

German consumer prices rose 2.6 percent in April from a year earlier after jumping 3.3 percent the previous month, the most in 12 years, according to the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden.

The dollar has declined since Sept. 18, when the Federal Reserve began cutting rates to ease financial-market strains and stave off a recession. The U.S. central bank cut rates seven times while the ECB left rates unchanged. The dollar fell 1 percent to $1.5664 per euro at 3:37 p.m. in New York.

``Oil is up because the dollar is being pounded on the bigger-than-expected increase in German inflation,'' said Addison Armstrong, director of market research at TFS Energy LLC in Stamford, Connecticut. ``The likelihood that the ECB will cut rates to be more in line with those in the U.S. is reduced by the German inflation numbers.''

Winners and Losers

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries' oil- export revenue will be over $1 trillion this year, the U.S. Energy Information Administration said on May 6. The estimate is $80 billion, or 8.2 percent, more than the agency forecast in a report published in April.

Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp. and ConocoPhillips, the largest U.S. energy companies, gained along with the price of oil. Exxon added 20 cents to $94.56. Chevron added 89 cents to $103.09 and ConocoPhillips rose 85 cents to $93.55.

The price of jet fuel, the largest expense at many airlines, has climbed 87 percent in the past year and traded at a record $3.9475 a gallon in New York Harbor today. Air carriers fell, with the Bloomberg U.S. Airlines Index sliding 3.2 percent. All 14 stocks in the index declined.

Earlier Loss

Pickens's BP Capital Energy Equity Fund fell 14 percent in the first two months of the year amid soaring prices for natural gas and crude oil. He told CNBC on Feb. 21 that he was short on both oil and natural gas. A short is a bet that prices will fall.

``Pickens is well respected in the industry, even though he made the mistake of shorting oil in February,'' said Brad Samples, commodity analyst for Summit Energy Inc. in Louisville, Kentucky.

Brent crude oil for July settlement rose $2.78 or 2.2 percent, to settle at a record $127.84 a barrel on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange after reaching an all-time high of $128.07 today.

The May 15 earthquake in China, the most powerful temblor to strike the country in 58 years, damaged power infrastructure and hampered coal transportation in the southwest. China has dispatched 33,000 kilowatts of diesel generators to help boost electricity supply to the quake-hit areas, the country's industry regulator said yesterday.

Coal Shortage

``There a coal shortage in China because of the earthquake, which is increasing the call on diesel,'' Kilduff said. ``That's why heating oil and gasoil were the first markets to move higher today.''

Heating oil for June delivery climbed 9.99 cents, or 2.7 percent, to settle at a record $3.775 a gallon in New York, after reaching $3.792 a gallon, the highest since trading began in 1978. Some traders use heating-oil futures to hedge purchases of diesel and jet-fuel, which are chemically similar.

President George W. Bush prefers to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon through ``peaceful diplomatic means,'' White House spokeswoman Dana Perino said today, dismissing a report by Israel's Army Radio that said Bush intends to attack Iran in the months ahead.

``Worries about Middle East supply have increased because of Israeli reports about U.S.-Iran policy,'' said Bill O'Grady, director of fundamental futures research at Wachovia Securities in St. Louis. ``Outside of a war it's difficult to see how these price gains can continue because at some point the economy will implode.''

Iran has the second-biggest proved oil reserves and is the second-biggest producer in OPEC. Almost a quarter of the world's oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz, a narrow waterway between Iran and Oman at the mouth of the Persian Gulf.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: May 20, 2008 17:18 EDT

[Supreona]

The price of oil won't go down simply because people want it to. Until the supply catches up with the demand oil will rise. Its not complicated.

[Jordan]

I wish I bought some KYUS like I had planned to this morning, up another 22%

[john_for_u80]

I wish I bought some KYUS like I had planned to this morning, up another 22%

Right now buying something is gambling. I know that this game of KYUS would have been profitable but it will be good if you concentrate on your future trades rather than thinking of the past ones. Be careful out there because market is very volatile and big money is on the sidelines. Retailers cannot support this market. Everyone is busy taking profits and loss.
This rally in April/May looks like a small rally in bear market!

Buy the stocks which are making the moves on their 1st or 2nd day. They wont fall hard. You can find them by scanning them on various website.

You are much more experienced than me but I just wanted to write what i felt. If everyone like us starts to get this confusing market feeling, do you think market will rally? No!

Some stocks to consider HUM, WLP. Charts are really interesting.

[Supreona]

I wish I bought some KYUS like I had planned to this morning, up another 22%

:laugh: Jordan my friend, I was silently rooting for you over here, seeing as how KYUS was moving up and the rest of the Oil micros were down, I was certain you had bought some. This is just a BIG sell off leading into the holiday. I'm going to make a bold prediction.

The energy micros will rebound significantly and oil will hit $137 per barrel. I would be adding to FPP here. How do I know?...think about it, WHY are we seeing this sell off, there was NO NEWS that was released today that would signify an ease on the demand for oil, OPEC turned bush down and in effect he's suing them, crude inventories being down by 5.4 million barrels surprised the market. There is no REASON. Don't get left out again.

JMHO

[Supreona]

Right now buying something is gambling. I know that this game of KYUS would have been profitable but it will be good if you concentrate on your future trades rather than thinking of the past ones. Be careful out there because market is very volatile and big money is on the sidelines. Retailers cannot support this market. Everyone is busy taking profits and loss.
This rally in April/May looks like a small rally in bear market!

Buy the stocks which are making the moves on their 1st or 2nd day. They wont fall hard. You can find them by scanning them on various website.

You are much more experienced than me but I just wanted to write what i felt. If everyone like us starts to get this confusing market feeling, do you think market will rally? No!

Some stocks to consider HUM, WLP. Charts are really interesting.

EVERYONE is not busy taking profits and losses.

The savvy investors are selling and adding.

The "lemmings" or "sheep" are taking losses and staying on the sidelines and hating the fact that they went to the prom with no date.

NO SOUP FOR YOU!!!!!

[Supreona]

I wish I bought some KYUS like I had planned to this morning, up another 22%

Jordan, it could have been down 22% easily, its an extremely risky position. Although it would have been lucrative today...risk/reward is an element to be considered.

[john_for_u80]

EVERYONE is not busy taking profits and losses.

The savvy investors are selling and adding.

The "lemmings" or "sheep" are taking losses and staying on the sidelines and hating the fact that they went to the prom with no date.

NO SOUP FOR YOU!!!!!

I dont agree with you because people who are getting stopped out are professional investor after riding the trend and they will not buy back the stock same day after they sell because many stocks have broken the chart.(eg: AAPL, RIMM, SOLARS and many more). Ones which are not going down or moving sideways are strong stocks of strong sectors.

In last few days I sold SOLF, SNDK, RIMM, QTWW, APWR at high. I am not interested in buying them back thinking it is a bargain because once the stocks falls down below your bargain price, its no longer a bargain.

May be i am wrong but this is what it looks right now.

I am with cash now and i will jump in when market makes sense!

[Supreona]

I dont agree with you because people who are getting stopped out are professional investor after riding the trend and they will not buy back the stock same day after they sell because many stocks have broken the chart.(eg: AAPL, RIMM, SOLARS and many more). Ones which are not going down or moving sideways are strong stocks of strong sectors.

In last few days I sold SOLF, SNDK, RIMM, QTWW, APWR at high. I am not interested in buying them back thinking it is a bargain because once the stocks falls down below your bargain price, its no longer a bargain.

May be i am wrong but this is what it looks right now.

I am with cash now and i will jump in when market makes sense!

I was referring to oil. I would have never considered any of those to be bargains to begin with, and who are these professional investors you're referring to exactly?

[Supreona]

Watching VCC tomorrow.

[Florida]

Yes, they will stop, when is another question. Based on the volume for the 1st 15 minutes of trading today, I would say we are at if not close to the top.

(of course, I have been wrong before, but not yet today, but the day is young)


From when I posted this yesterday morning, FPP went up 2%, and has since pulled back 32% from the high, MXC went up 3% and has since pulled back 39% from the high and PDO went up 7% and has since pulled back 33%.

Classic exhaustion buying yesterday in the first 15 minutes of trading. After moving almost straight up 3 days, the novice trader who was convinced that this thing was going to the moon without them jumped in for a piece of the action, almost 10 times the normal volume for the first 15 minutes. Then this morning when they gapped up again, but did not continue up, the novice trader said "oh-oh", we've been caught again, and started to unload it at a volume pace that exceeded even yesterday's ridiculous levels on 2 out of 3 of them.

These trades are finished, kaput, done, washed up. Anyone who loaded up today with the hopes that they will pull back, consolidate and run again has been sipping something funny.

No arguement that oil is high, and probably going higher eventually, (maybe even soon), but oil at $200 or even $300 a barrel will not support the moves made by the 3 stocks mentioned. There may still be a day or 2 of volatility left in them to play during the day, but my opinion is they will not see the levels hit yesterday for quite some time, if ever.

[Supreona]

From when I posted this yesterday morning, FPP went up 2%, and has since pulled back 32% from the high, MXC went up 3% and has since pulled back 39% from the high and PDO went up 7% and has since pulled back 33%.

Classic exhaustion buying yesterday in the first 15 minutes of trading. After moving almost straight up 3 days, the novice trader who was convinced that this thing was going to the moon without them jumped in for a piece of the action, almost 10 times the normal volume for the first 15 minutes. Then this morning when they gapped up again, but did not continue up, the novice trader said "oh-oh", we've been caught again, and started to unload it at a volume pace that exceeded even yesterday's ridiculous levels on 2 out of 3 of them.

These trades are finished, kaput, done, washed up. Anyone who loaded up today with the hopes that they will pull back, consolidate and run again has been sipping something funny.

No arguement that oil is high, and probably going higher eventually, (maybe even soon), but oil at $200 or even $300 a barrel will not support the moves made by the 3 stocks mentioned. There may still be a day or 2 of volatility left in them to play during the day, but my opinion is they will not see the levels hit yesterday for quite some time, if ever.

...why? Give me a logical reason for oil to drop. Aside from the gains these stocks have experienced. Tell me why oil would go down.

...other than fear. Don't try to frighten...just give a logical reason why OIL will go down.

[Florida]

...why? Give me a logical reason for oil to drop. Aside from the gains these stocks have experienced. Tell me why oil would go down.

...other than fear. Don't try to frighten...just give a logical reason why OIL will go down.

I did not say oil was going down, I said that it will go up, eventually. I did say that the run is over for the stocks mentioned for the reasons I listed in the post.

However, oil is a commodity, and the price ultimately is based on supply and demand like you have mentioned in several of your posts. Demand has not grown by 30% since oil was at $100 a barrel, nor has it gone up 62% since oil was at $80. A certain degree of the recent run is based on speculation and even momentum, and with all such moves, it has a way of mellowing out and returning to the norm. As such, I do believe it will pull back but the days of cheap oil are certainly over, and as demand actually does increase, the price will ultimately move higher on oil.

[Supreona]

hmmmmm...intersting...oil goes up...and the companies that benefit from oil all go down...seeing as they're "kaput" or "washed up" as it was so mildly put. I find myself perplexed by that idea...just doesn't add up...logically.

Hopefully one wouldn't make such brash assumptions based on todays activity alone, which was nothing more than an orchestrated sell off at best... In actuality, the majority of the commodities traders had a predetermined sell target of $135, and would pretty much sell off when it hit...nothing more than profit taking...surely a "professional" would know this...only a "novice" would overlook such a blatant display of industry wide profit taking.

...no news to support todays activity...no increased output...bush suing OPEC...crude inventories still low...nothing has changed...nothing

One should be cautious in referring to others as "novices", thats not really the "professional" thing to do seeing as hes earned the right to call people that and would consider himself a "professional".

[Supreona]

hmmmmm...intersting...oil goes up...and the companies that benefit from oil all go down...seeing as they're "kaput" or "washed up" as it was so mildly put. I find myself perplexed by that idea...just doesn't add up...logically.

Hopefully one wouldn't make such brash assumptions based on todays activity alone, which was nothing more than an orchestrated sell off at best... In actuality, the majority of the commodities traders had a predetermined sell target of $135, and would pretty much sell off when it hit...nothing more than profit taking...surely a "professional" would know this...only a "novice" would overlook such a blatant display of industry wide profit taking.

...no news to support todays activity...no increased output...bush suing OPEC...crude inventories still low...nothing has changed...nothing

One should be cautious in referring to others as "novices", thats not really the "professional" thing to do seeing as hes earned the right to call people that and would consider himself a "professional".

Just to back up my statements, I browsed the net and guess what I find.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/24764665

Pay attention to whats in quotations.

[Florida]

hmmmmm...intersting...oil goes up...and the companies that benefit from oil all go down...seeing as they're "kaput" or "washed up" as it was so mildly put. I find myself perplexed by that idea...just doesn't add up...logically.

Hopefully one wouldn't make such brash assumptions based on todays activity alone, which was nothing more than an orchestrated sell off at best... In actuality, the majority of the commodities traders had a predetermined sell target of $135, and would pretty much sell off when it hit...nothing more than profit taking...surely a "professional" would know this...only a "novice" would overlook such a blatant display of industry wide profit taking.

...no news to support todays activity...no increased output...bush suing OPEC...crude inventories still low...nothing has changed...nothing

One should be cautious in referring to others as "novices", thats not really the "professional" thing to do seeing as hes earned the right to call people that and would consider himself a "professional".


Supreona, my friend,

There you go again trying to apply my comments on a few specific stocks to the entire industry.

As for your professional vs. novice statement, I am not a professional trader as I do not trade others money. I am however a trader by profession, and more specifically a day trader, closing the day flat with close to 95% of my capital, (a small percentage is played on longer term, speculative plays, mostly with options). I have traded professionally in the past, but find my current status to be much less hectic.

My reference to the novice trader was not directed at anyone in particular, but rather the typical moves made by novice traders. They typically buy at or near the top, and sell at or near the lows. They are the ones that professional traders eat alive, and are also the ones that usually end up beaten and bruised along the sides of the "trader highway".

(by the way, just took another $.50 on FPP short from when it crossed below the open. That makes almost $6.00 per share profit on FPP this week).

[Florida]

[QUOTE=Florida;111041]Supreona, my friend,

There you go again trying to apply my comments on a few specific stocks to the entire industry.

As of right now, oil up 1.5%, FPP down 7%

[Supreona]

Supreona, my friend,

There you go again trying to apply my comments on a few specific stocks to the entire industry.

As for your professional vs. novice statement, I am not a professional trader as I do not trade others money. I am however a trader by profession, and more specifically a day trader, closing the day flat with close to 95% of my capital, (a small percentage is played on longer term, speculative plays, mostly with options). I have traded professionally in the past, but find my current status to be much less hectic.

My reference to the novice trader was not directed at anyone in particular, but rather the typical moves made by novice traders. They typically buy at or near the top, and sell at or near the lows. They are the ones that professional traders eat alive, and are also the ones that usually end up beaten and bruised along the sides of the "trader highway".

(by the way, just took another $.50 on FPP short from when it crossed below the open. That makes almost $6.00 per share profit on FPP this week).

And I congratulate you on your shrewd tactics, Florida, at the end of the day its about making money plain and simple, if you're making it...thats great...no matter how you make it. We're all big boys here. Theres a difference between dispensing advice and having the "I told ya so" mentality, Small stocks always suffer when theres too many hands in the pot. I actually prefer stocks like PDO and MXC, because I know a ton of shorts wouldn't be able to get their sticky little hands on it so they could be shorting it all day, stifling the momentum. I like stocks that cut people like that out.

[Supreona]

I've even shorted stocks heading into earnings myself, but thats a different scenario all together.

[Supreona]

I've even shorted stocks heading into earnings myself, but thats a different scenario all together.

...altogether...ooppss:laugh:

[Florida]

And I congratulate you on your shrewd tactics, Florida, at the end of the day its about making money plain and simple, if you're making it...thats great...no matter how you make it. We're all big boys here. Theres a difference between dispensing advice and having the "I told ya so" mentality, Small stocks always suffer when theres too many hands in the pot. I actually prefer stocks like PDO and MXC, because I know a ton of shorts wouldn't be able to get their sticky little hands on it so they could be shorting it all day, stifling the momentum. I like stocks that cut people like that out.

FINALLY, got a piece of MXC. Was watching it close for a short set-up after the cosolidation period from about noon. Just when I thought it was going to go down, it moved up $2, then consolidated and when it took off again at about 2:13, I jumped in. Out in 15 minutes for a 10% move.

Done for the week, everyone have a great holiday week-end.

As per usual, not holding anything overnight, let alone over a long week-end, God only knows what the market will do when we come back.

[Supreona]

FINALLY, got a piece of MXC. Was watching it close for a short set-up after the cosolidation period from about noon. Just when I thought it was going to go down, it moved up $2, then consolidated and when it took off again at about 2:13, I jumped in. Out in 15 minutes for a 10% move.

Done for the week, everyone have a great holiday week-end.

As per usual, not holding anything overnight, let alone over a long week-end, God only knows what the market will do when we come back.

How much did you spend $100 :laugh:, just kidding...excellent trade Florida.

[Florida]

How much did you spend $100 :laugh:, just kidding...excellent trade Florida.

What, do you think I am made of money? Maxed out my margin to buy one share! after commissions, I made about $2!!

[Supreona]

Well Florida my friend, you said they were, kaput, washed up and over and done with, and you were 100% CORRECT, u were never more RIGHT and I'll be the first to admit it. My apologies for giving you crap about that call and being stupid and referring to you as a "fear monger", I was out of line, it was more like skepticism...and you were right to be as skeptical as you were.

Next time I'll just shut my big mouth unless I have something of substance to add, and I'll definitely pay more attention to your positions on matters.

Again my apologies.

Sup

[Florida]

Well Florida my friend, you said they were, kaput, washed up and over and done with, and you were 100% CORRECT, u were never more RIGHT and I'll be the first to admit it. My apologies for giving you crap about that call and being stupid and referring to you as a "fear monger", I was out of line, it was more like skepticism...and you were right to be as skeptical as you were.

Next time I'll just shut my big mouth unless I have something of substance to add, and I'll definitely pay more attention to your positions on matters.

Again my apologies.

Sup


No need to apologize, it takes 2 sides to make a market.

As for the stocks we have been discussing, who knows where they may go from here, it doesn't really matter to me. They provided some real good day trading opportunities during their big run, and that's all I care about.

Volumes are way off on all of them today, and really have not provided any good entries in my mind. I will put them on the back burner for now, and wait and see if volumes pick up again.