The "Tim Horton IPO"

[pmb1010]

OK so Jim gave the range, and sort of the timeframe:

Pay up to $24 for it, hold till it gets to $28

My guess:

IPO will "open" for the instituitions (only, not us pi-ons) at $21, up from it's "initial offer" of $19.

By the time any of the general public can get a hold if it, it will be $27, 27.50.

It will drop back after a week or so to $24.
After a few weeks it will inch up to $26.

Jim will say "told you so, 19 to 26 is a real good call from Cramerica".

[oldboldpilot]

I figure this one will last about as long as his last pump........ AVNX
'Tis surely the kiss of death...I held AVNX before Cramer touted it and sold it the day after his show. I think peoplr are finally beginning to catch on !!!
Or.......maybe not. Some guy called the show tonight and said he had been following Cramer for (10 ?) years and thanked him for making him so much money. Unbelievable. Musta been his bro.

[soundlanguage]

... Some guy called the show tonight and said he had been following Cramer for (10 ?) years and thanked him for making him so much money. Unbelievable. Musta been his bro.


Did he specify how he made that money? Hell it could've been from shorts playing off the big C's hype! When following fails try the contrary method...

(but i'm just a little unusually cynical tonight)

[Mik3L]

I figure this one will last about as long as his last pump........ AVNX
'Tis surely the kiss of death...I held AVNX before Cramer touted it and sold it the day after his show. I think peoplr are finally beginning to catch on !!!
Or.......maybe not. Some guy called the show tonight and said he had been following Cramer for (10 ?) years and thanked him for making him so much money. Unbelievable. Musta been his bro.

Somehow I doubt that Tim Horton's (or Timmie's as we call it up here in Canada) will be a typical pump and dump. The place has been a Canadian staple since hockey player great Tim Horton opened the first shop. How the market values it is obviously yet to be seen and as with many IPOs it will likely do the mad shuffle up as individuals bit it up just do just level off at more reasonable levels. But don't doubt the long term potential of this issue. Opening a Tim Horton's franchise (at least in Canada) practically gives one the ability to print money up here and the waiting list just to open a Timmies is a mile (or 1.6 km if you prefer) long. You would think they put crack in their coffee the way Canucks drink the stuff. I know I had mine this morning and will have another before the day is out.

[bobwatford123]

Somehow I doubt that Tim Horton's (or Timmie's as we call it up here in Canada) will be a typical pump and dump. The place has been a Canadian staple since hockey player great Tim Horton opened the first shop. How the market values it is obviously yet to be seen and as with many IPOs it will likely do the mad shuffle up as individuals bit it up just do just level off at more reasonable levels. But don't doubt the long term potential of this issue. Opening a Tim Horton's franchise (at least in Canada) practically gives one the ability to print money up here and the waiting list just to open a Timmies is a mile (or 1.6 km if you prefer) long. You would think they put crack in their coffee the way Canucks drink the stuff. I know I had mine this morning and will have another before the day is out.

I am also Canadian. The problem I have with Timmies is the saturation of the market factor. I am surprised if Jim was talking about this he wouldn't have meantioned it. In Canada, there is basically nowhere left to go. U.S. maybe, but in Canada it is ridiculus. The town I grew up in has a population of 32000 people. There are 9 Tim Hortons there now!!! That's all well and good, but the profit of the few there used to be is just getting destroyed by the oversaturation. If they could get a foothold in the U.S. maybe, but as it is now, I think it will be overpriced.

[bobwatford123]

Tuesday, March 21, 2006

TORONTO — Tim Hortons Inc. is boosting the price of its stock and granting its underwriters the option to buy more shares when the company goes public this week.

Tim Hortons shares will likely be priced between $25 to $27 per share, up from $21 to $23 per share, the company said late Monday.

The previous price range was filed in the Oakville, Ont.-based firm's Canadian preliminary prospectus on March 3 and its U.S. prospectus on March 13.

Tim Hortons, which is owned by Ohio-based Wendy's International Inc., has also granted underwriters the option to purchase up to an additional 4.35 million shares of its common stock at the IPO price “less the underwriting discount to cover over-allotments, if any,” it said.

The company did not disclose why it raised the share price range.

However, the initial public offering of the iconic coffee and doughnut chain has been a much-anticipated event among Canadian investors.

The amended offering of about 33 million shares could raise about $890-million.

It would still leave Wendy's with most of Tim Hortons' outstanding shares, but the fast food chain announced earlier this month it would spin off its remaining shares by the end of the year.

Wendy's, whose sluggish sales at its signature burger chain have been outpaced by Tim Hortons' steady growth, had planned to spin off the remaining shares within nine to 18 months. The company told investors in early February that the spinoff cannot be done faster for tax reasons.

But Wendy's moved up that timetable in an agreement with one of its major shareholders, Trian Partners, which had increased its stake in Wendy's to 5.5 per cent.

Nelson Peltz, head of Trian Partners, had been pressuring Wendy's to speed up the Tim Hortons spinoff.

Tim Hortons plans to list its common shares on the New York Stock Exchange and the Toronto Stock Exchange, under the symbol THI. The company has said it will use net proceeds from the IPO to repay debt owed to Wendy's.

Founded by its namesake Toronto Maple Leafs defenceman Tim Horton and Ron Joyce, a former Hamilton police officer and franchisee of the first Tim Hortons store, the coffee and doughnut chain was bought by Wendy's in 1995 in a deal worth $580-million.

At the time, the private company had 1,000 outlets across Canada and reported sales in 1994 of $600-million. In 2005, Tim Hortons earned a profit of $191.1-million on sales of $1.48-billion.

Wendy's revenue for 2005 rose four per cent to $3.78-billion (U.S.) from $3.64-billion in 2004.

But sales at Wendy's locations open at least one year, a key measure of retail performance, fell 3.7 per cent for all of 2005. It was the first such decline in 18 years.

The company has told investors it plans to cut costs by $40-million to $60-million annually throughout the company and wants to improve margins at restaurants.

Shares of Wendy's gained 64 cents Monday to close at $65.90 (U.S.) on the New York Stock Exchange.

© The Globe and Mail


Wendy's is spinning off Tim Horton's because they know the growth is now stagnant. They failed in an attempt to break into the U.S. as it was. Avoid this one like the plague.

[Mik3L]

I am also Canadian. The problem I have with Timmies is the saturation of the market factor. I am surprised if Jim was talking about this he wouldn't have meantioned it. In Canada, there is basically nowhere left to go. U.S. maybe, but in Canada it is ridiculus. The town I grew up in has a population of 32000 people. There are 9 Tim Hortons there now!!! That's all well and good, but the profit of the few there used to be is just getting destroyed by the oversaturation. If they could get a foothold in the U.S. maybe, but as it is now, I think it will be overpriced.

You raise a good point and I hadn't really considered that. As far as Ontario goes I would agree. My fiance's home town has maybe 6000 people and 2 Timmies. As for their plans for Canadian expansion it looks to be focused on western Canada and Quebec where the saturation is weak. Where it will get it's greatest strides will be if it can achieve a foothold in the states as you mention.

Looks like they bumped the IPO price this morning, now between $25-$27 up from $21-$23.
http://www.theglobeandmail.com/servlet/story/RTGAM.20060321.wtims0321/BNStory/Business/home

Overvalued? Off the top I would say yes, way too much hype. I wont be buying the stock, atleast right away, but I will continue to contribute to their bottom line. I think it is time for a coffee break now actually...

[computeraces]

when can us "normal" people buy the stock?

[madcowdisease]

Don't know much about Canada and the saturation factor, but my girlfriend and her family live 90 minutes away from me and there is a TH in their city. They think the place is great. I don't know if it will become the cultural icon it has become in Canada but evidently the product the offer is quite desirable based on their reaction.

[clavocat]

when is tim hortons ipo coming out, later this week right? any exact times?

[mhertz]

thursday.

reportedly to be priced at $25-$27.

[bobwatford123]

Cramer quote

"NOW LOOK, HERE'S WHAT I THINK YOU NEED TO DO. I DON'T WANT YOU INTO THI FOR A LONG TERM INVESTMENT.

SURE, THEY'LL PROBABLY TRY TO EXPAND INTO AMERICA, BUT THEIR GROWTH IS ALREADY VERY CONSTRAINED IN THEIR CORE MARKET, BECAUSE THEY SEEM TO BE PRETTY MUCH EVERYWHERE IN CANADA; THEY'VE SATURATED THAT MARKET."

guess he did have the IPO bang on afterall. I hadn't seen the show, but he obviously understands it's just a quick flip

[pmb1010]

I'm only a few miles from Niagara Falls, in fact Tim Horton (himself) was a namesake for us here in the Buffalo area, being a hockey member of our team in the early 70's - the Buffalo Sabres.

We have TH shops all over the place here in Western NY.
There is one 1/2 mile away from my house. And another 3 miles down the road from that one.

Yes, they have excellent coffee. I'll go there for a coffee every couple weeks or so.

With that said - will I do anything in relation to the IPO? Nope... With the news I just read about the increase in IPO offer, here it shows it's just for the money of the corporation, not the investment for the shareholders.

I'd recommend readers to stay away from this one. Too easy to get burned.

[clavocat]

I'm only a few miles from Niagara Falls, in fact Tim Horton (himself) was a namesake for us here in the Buffalo area, being a hockey member of our team in the early 70's - the Buffalo Sabres.

We have TH shops all over the place here in Western NY.
There is one 1/2 mile away from my house. And another 3 miles down the road from that one.

Yes, they have excellent coffee. I'll go there for a coffee every couple weeks or so.

With that said - will I do anything in relation to the IPO? Nope... With the news I just read about the increase in IPO offer, here it shows it's just for the money of the corporation, not the investment for the shareholders.

I'd recommend readers to stay away from this one. Too easy to get burned.

buffalo, im right there in clarence, nice to see some locals.

[David411]

can someone clear up some things for me, is THI being offered on the NYSE and if so, when?

[clavocat]

can someone clear up some things for me, is THI being offered on the NYSE and if so, when?


tommorow under THI, time exactly i dont know, you prolly wont get ur hands on it till later.

[mhertz]

i heard Friday now. the final price will be determined tomorrow.

[computeraces]

THI is now trading, but it's too high for me.

[computeraces]

It was around 30 or so. Now it's about 28.5. Cramer said not to get it over 28. Any takers so far? I'm still holding out.

[SWFseeksM4LTR]

It was around 30 or so. Now it's about 28.5. Cramer said not to get it over 28. Any takers so far? I'm still holding out.

I don't know how that happened as I thought I had a limit order on it.

WAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!

Now what do I do????

Someone send out the Jim Cramer spotlight into the sky so that Cramer will visit and give us guidance.

jk

I know he said it was a flip, so I guess I will take my losses and put my tail between my legs and start all over with something new. At least I am not a quitter...well, at least until I lose everything. LOL!

:)

[Robert L]

well I'm gonna hold on to mine also bought too high, and see what it does at 28, I have a feeling the drones will come to buy and push it back up, at least I should cut a smaller loss, if it goes bellow like 27.75 I'm out too.
hehehehe

Rob