Jim Cramer's Performance Score Board

[16GaSxS]

Hey folks I really enjoy Jims show and I think his advice and lessons on research is right on target. I went over to the Your Money Watch sight and they Jim's score board and while his performance is okay it's nothing to write a book about.

Jim Cramer's "Mad Money"
Buy Recommendations
PERFORMANCE SCOREBOARD
7/28/05 to 03/02/06

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TOTAL: 623 WINNERS: 432 LOSERS: 187 UNCH: 4
Total Portfolio Performance: +7.57%
DOW +2.99% S&P 500 +3.65% NASDAQ +5.12%


Now he has beat the indexs but he hasn't beaten several of my growth funds I have. Over the same time frame my global growth fund has returned over 15% even after paying a 3.5% load. (now don't scream about a load, it keep timers and DIY yahoo's for running and ruining my funds performance, besides only pay it once) Heck even my Multi Cap US growth fund match his returns again even considering if I had paid a 3.5% load (I have owned it for years).
I was just about ready to pull the triger on several of Jim's picks but now after seeing his returns and I bet they don't include trading costs which can add up even with deep discounts can add up with 600+ trades in less than a year!:eek:

Am I the only one that sees wonders about this?:rolleyes:

I guess I'll just keep watching for the laugh factor. :lol:

[zyzzyva57]

Be patient. No, you do not blindly follow him. You must do your homework. You must profile Cramer so you can gauge his strengths and weaknesses. One weakness, for example, is he will hold onto a bad stock too long, breaking the rules he preaches about with other stocks, e.g., Sirius. You have to learn to catch Cramer doing this. I learned over the summer with Capstone. He pushed and shoved this stock to nowhereville, and I was new, and I rode it down. I saw him do this with Google. He got us in early, but if you had followed him, you would have rode it back down. He seems to always have a "Capstone," and you best catch onto this early, or you win to lose on his latest "Capstone." He is not doing this deliberate, it is just one of his weak sides. At times, he is simply unable to pull out of a pick, e.g., Sirius until Thurs nite's show. This was a rare event.

[bobwatford123]

I was just about ready to pull the triger on several of Jim's picks but now after seeing his returns and I bet they don't include trading costs which can add up even with deep discounts can add up with 600+ trades in less than a year!:eek:

Am I the only one that sees wonders about this?:rolleyes:

I guess I'll just keep watching for the laugh factor. :lol:

Just think what his returns would be without the "lemming factor" I'm pretty sure that is worth about 5% all on it's own, leaving him with only 2.5%. Him picking his stocks moves them up all on it's own. It would be interesting if he picked stocks without broadcasting it and see what the results would be.

[Will]

How many of your growth funds can stand on stage and get bombarded with stock questions every day?
I'm not saying he's a genius, but he is a talented individual who knows what he's talking about. Maybe past his prime, but leaps and bounds ahead of the rest of the B.S. on CNBC.

by the way, he did pick stocks without broadcasting for a living at one point, and the results were obviously pretty good, because he's easilly a millionaire.

[the_menace]

Does it really matter? Do you expect that his accuracy for calling stocks will be greater than 20%? Stocks has their own life and his calls are based as of that moment and never has a stock gone up forever and hold. Monitoring his calls as a whole instead of individually is like splitting hair..

[zyzzyva57]

Cramer got into legal trouble with his hedge fund,didn't he? I recall something happen in the 90's. I think it is safe to say in his younger years Cramer would not be someone you wanted to work for or with. His core weakness is nightly he has to fill 45 minutes when there really is nothing that cannot be said in 5 minutes, if at all. Often, he is just filling time with noise. A weekly show where he had a week to work on would be awesome.

[Zvolen]

I myself actually think those are good results, lets see you try to pick over 600 stocks and see if you can get a better return. Isn't the main goal of picking stocks is to beat the index's? Plus, this is with the constant bombardment of people and stock questions, where he decides if he likes. You CAN NOT expect him to be right 100% or even have a portfolio that is up 20%. He obviously has proven he can pick stocks with his hedge fund that made millions of dollars, his own T.V, show, Radio show, and a message board here where we all came to post about his picks. If he wasn't an influence on the market none of this would be true.

A better barometer on his picks would be to average out his 10 best performaning stocks with his 10 worst. Even that would not be sufficient.

[tigerman]

I have difficulty believing anyone could be bashing Cramer's performance record. Those 423 wins equate to a .693 batting average!

A better question would be this: if you were to enter a trading position on those stocks only after waiting for the stock to dip following the almost inevitable "Cramer pop" effect the first 24 hours after his initial recommendation, and use an 8% trailing stop, what would be the net results if you bought say 100 shares of each?

I'd wager good money that the returns from such a strategy would be significantly better than the 7+ percentage returns in the table. Like Cramer says,"It's not about buy and hold, it's about buy and HOMEWORK!"

Follow the trading discipline in the book (Real Money), and you will do much much better than the average trader.

More to the point: if you consistently axe your losers early and ride your winners until they cash out on a sensible trailing stop, you really can make good money with even a .250 batting average. Over the course of time you will be sure to have a few 10-baggers in your portfolio doing this, and no big losers! Do your homework the Cramer way, ride the winners, kill the losers!

Good luck!

[zyzzyva57]

For most of us we have to guess which stock to pick, and homework for us is far from professional. I can study p/e's, etc, all day and not make any money. If you "mutual funded" his picks, that is, could buy a basket of his stocks, you would do fine. For the rest of us, we have to be selective. It is why I now use thestreet's "Under $10 Stocks." This service cost me the equavalent of a tank of gas a month, but I get daily updates, plus I have a daily insight into what Cramer will like in the $10 range. I see it as hiring professional help. If Cramer picks a stock in the newsletter this is great, because I have a professional constantly monitoring the stock for what I want as a Newbie Trader. Cramer raw is dangerous, plus his show is the tip of an enormous ice berg we viewers do not see, unless we buy one of his MANY newsletters with a focus on the area we want we can be left hanging.

[madcowdisease]

Just think what his returns would be without the "lemming factor" I'm pretty sure that is worth about 5% all on it's own, leaving him with only 2.5%. Him picking his stocks moves them up all on it's own. It would be interesting if he picked stocks without broadcasting it and see what the results would be.

LOL, yea I just love how he claims "we sure nailed that one" when there was a 20% gap just b/c he mentioned it.

For most of us we have to guess which stock to pick, and homework for us is far from professional. I can study p/e's, etc, all day and not make any money. If you "mutual funded" his picks, that is, could buy a basket of his stocks, you would do fine. For the rest of us, we have to be selective. It is why I now use thestreet's "Under $10 Stocks." This service cost me the equavalent of a tank of gas a month, but I get daily updates, plus I have a daily insight into what Cramer will like in the $10 range. I see it as hiring professional help. If Cramer picks a stock in the newsletter this is great, because I have a professional constantly monitoring the stock for what I want as a Newbie Trader. Cramer raw is dangerous, plus his show is the tip of an enormous ice berg we viewers do not see, unless we buy one of his MANY newsletters with a focus on the area we want we can be left hanging.

I've run in to othis problem too. Picking the wrong stock of his will kill you. I got in to SWKS in the summer as Motorola pinaction. Cramer pumped it as a double digit stock in months from ~$7. I got in at a good price, no big cramer effect, but it slowly trickled down. I got out with a 10-12% loss. I was lucky, b/c Cramer really picked a dud and it tanked months after I got out due to lowered guidance. I would've been down 20+% if I wouldn't have deviated from his conviction. But I feel this has scarred me in a way. I got out of BBD with a 20% gain after having 30%. If I had held on I'd be up 50% now as it ramped back up. I don't trust Cramer's picks so if they dont' pan out I drop them off my radar.

Also, do you find that Stocks Under Ten is worth it's cost? Isn't it 400 or more a year? It'd have to yield me a 10% return or better to justify purchasing it. How many stocks are in the portfolio and how often do they trade in and out and how often do they add new positions or close out of old ones? I'm going to assume it's an existing portfolio so is it like Cramer's where he has fatliners that have peaked? Just wondering what your experiences are as I've considered that newsletter in the past. Thank in advance. BTW, how long have you had it?

[zyzzyva57]

I took the free trial and will try the paid version for a couple of months. By the month it is $30 per month, cheaper yearly. I see it as the price of a tank of gas. Is it worth it? Stay tuned

I got out of jdsu at $3.70, which the newsletter semi covered but did not push. I own two stocks of the newsletter: abxa and terne. abxa is flat linning, but the newsletter, Cramer, and Herb Greenberg likes the stock so I am holding. Terne was picked last week. So far it sux, but I am holding. I likely the daily updates. I can tell you reading eps, p/e, et cetera metrics do not cut it for the Newbie. Personally, I will not buy into a stock not covered by the newsletter. I want and need help! If Cramer spotlights one of the cheap stocks, g-great--but Cramer spotlighting a cheap stock without me getting help, no way!

I am watching desc. Tue, its earning report comes out. Had I followed the newsletter I could have got in at $9.50. You can watch desc, terne, and abxa over the next few weeks and see if the newsletter is worth it. Regardless, look into a free trial of one of thestreet's newsletters that fit your investment style, so you won't go Cramer alone.

[madcowdisease]

I took the free trial and will try the paid version for a couple of months. By the month it is $30 per month, cheaper yearly. I see it as the price of a tank of gas. Is it worth it? Stay tuned

I got out of jdsu at $3.70, which the newsletter semi covered but did not push. I own two stocks of the newsletter: abxa and terne. abxa is flat linning, but the newsletter, Cramer, and Herb Greenberg likes the stock so I am holding. Terne was picked last week. So far it sux, but I am holding. I likely the daily updates. I can tell you reading eps, p/e, et cetera metrics do not cut it for the Newbie. Personally, I will not buy into a stock not covered by the newsletter. I want and need help! If Cramer spotlights one of the cheap stocks, g-great--but Cramer spotlighting a cheap stock without me getting help, no way!

I am watching desc. Tue, its earning report comes out. Had I followed the newsletter I could have got in at $9.50. You can watch desc, terne, and abxa over the next few weeks and see if the newsletter is worth it. Regardless, look into a free trial of one of thestreet's newsletters that fit your investment style, so you won't go Cramer alone.

Hey, wow, thanks for the heads up. That is great of you. I'll definately put these 3 on their own watchlist to see if they work out and test the validity of the S.U.T newsletter.

I did a brief checkup of the 3 just now and jeez, how in the hell did Terayon get in their portfolio? No earnings and a negative growth rate, what!!?? I'll look in to it further and try and see what they see in it, but man, on the surface it looks bad.

[zyzzyva57]

I quote briefly from the newsletter:

"Terayon's CherryPicker product line is used by video-delivery companies such as Comcast (CMCSA:Nasdaq) to control the delivery of video content and insert advertisements to targeted audience demographics."

Indeed, this stock picker team (not one person) added to its position last week. I am in for the test at 140 shares. Monitor it with me. If it pulls off this pick for a $1+ per share gain I will call up and cancel my subscription, hoping the newsletter will make me a good deal to stay. If it does not, I will resubscribe. :) This will be a major test

Today, I got an email to sell bkhm from the newsletter. Had I bought in when the newsletter told me, I could have booked a 15% gain. Now, here is where the newsletter is key: Cramer, who like(d) the stock, would have got me in, but suppose no caller asked about the stock? Suppose two days later from now, someone does, and he is bearish about the stock. He does not mention heretofore he had been bullish. See where I am going with this? You could have bought in and then assume he was still bullish. You do not get the change in temperament with the show. You can find all kinds of FREE good stock picks from his show to Motley Fool, the street, etc--but once in, you get no daily help. As a Newbie who uses Scottrade, I am in a danger zone if I try to do the ride myself. Cramer does NOT give away FREE daily guidance on his picks. You have to subscribe to one of his thestreet's newsletters to get this. His thestreet offers Various kinds of newsletters for sale focusing on a particular aspect of his stock picks. Now his newsletters do not strictly follow his tv picks, but with the one I am testing, I do have a greater chance he will select one of its picks, and if so, I am paying the equavlent of a tank of gas for a month to track the stock.

[aj14]

I think if you take Cramer's record from when the stock could be bought the following morning (not where it closed on the night he recommends it, but where you could actually invest money in it the following morning) you would find that his performance is awful, especially given the risk he takes. I doubt if his returns are even positive, let alone rewarding enough to make it worthwhile to follow his trend chasing style.