Monthly Stock Challenge March 2006

[ChronicDDL]

Previous Monthly Game Winners & Picks (http://chronicstocks.com/chat/viewtopic.php?t=246)

February thread is here: http://www.cramersmadmoney.com/showthread.php?t=1906

March 2006

1 - Pick 3 stocks you think will have the best % gain from the first trading day of the month to the last trading day of the month.

2 - One stock must be over $100; one stock must trade between $50 -$99.99; and one stock must trade between $5 & $49.99.

3 - The open price on the first trading day of the month & the closing price on the last trading day of the month will be the 2 numbers used to find the % gain.

4 - The 3 stocks % gain/loss will be added together and then divided by 3 to find the average % gain.

5 - You may only have 1 of the same stocks as other members; members can not have 2 of the same stock picks, first come first served.

6 - All picks must be in before the opening bell on the first trading day of the month.

[madcowdisease]

I'll play the commodities.

Let me have...

1) PD

2) FCX

3) TGA

Good luck to all.

[TheChartGuru]

SLB above $100

DNA $50- $99.99

LEXR $5 -$49.99


The Guru has spoken

[wqcustom]

I'll go with my same from Feb.

50+ ATI
5+ CDIS
100+ GS

[ChronicDDL]

Siri
Bdk
Tm

[BB]

PD above $100

RAIL $50- $99.99

COGO $5 -$49.99

[loslobos71]

Cnxt
Nbr
Leh

:d

[aiki14]

TM over 100
SUN 50-99
abax 5-49

[mlegha1]

First time in the challenge here are my picks...


ACH $108.98
RL $58.00
TOMO $22.09

[tekbubble]

1. RTP (although thought about GOOG)
2. PCU (would've done NBR, but someone else got to it 1st)
3. CCJ

[beatthestreet]

BBD - Banco Bradesco
CRDN - Ceradyne
TS - Tenaris

[teno4212]

Vlo $50- $99.99
Ts $100+
Sbs $5 -$49.99

[madcowdisease]

BBD - Banco Bradesco
CRDN - Ceradyne
TS - Tenaris

What's your take on BBD? I held this thing before and just after the split then got out with a good gain. It tanked and I dropped it off my radar only to rediscover it up huge in the short term. Any reason for the jump? What is you opinion on this stock?

[englishman26]

Lot's of growth in Brazil (and south america as a whole at the moment) and the easiest way to profit is via the banks that are funding the growing investment. It's really raw material companies that are fueling the growth but they're very volatile and unpredictable relative to the banks.

I like ITU too. (I'll be picking that for my monthly picks so don't steal it!) ;)

[englishman26]

+100: Amg

50-100: Ah

5-50: Itu

[TheBullPicker]

I'll take AAPL, (50-100)
PLAY, (<50)
TNT(this one has been a rocket) (>100)

[GDFLS]

Please put me down for:

SLW (5-50)
AH (50-100)
GOOG (100+)

[Will]

I'll have
ANAD (5-50)
NUE(50-100)
PGR(>100)

[xboilermaker]

Bmd
Stp
Cmi

[BigDawg291]

Kse (5-50)
Asei (50-100)
Tm (>100)

[BOOOYAHOOO!]

I guess there is no need to back out of 3 great shorts jist cause they didn't tumble in Feb :) I run with UHAL, PAAS, and CME.....all 3 chort!

[BOOOYAHOOO!]

I guess there is no need to back out of 3 great shorts jist cause they didn't tumble in Feb :) I run with UHAL, PAAS, and CME.....all 3 chort!

Actually, I'll stick with CME ad UHAL but since PAAS still needs to take out the 52 week high first I will replace it with ACF.

CME
UHAL
ACF

All 3 chort!

[BuyOnDips]

My picks:

SABA

CENT

TM

[up2nogd420]

Acad
Jci
Rtp

[soundlanguage]

Actually, I'll stick with CME ad UHAL but since PAAS still needs to take out the 52 week high first I will replace it with ACF.

CME
UHAL
ACF

All 3 chort!


Good overall growth (historical)... how long would you hold this?

[ChronicDDL]

I am changing my SIRI pick to NL-

NL
BDK
TM

[the_menace]

chk
cvx
blk

[ChronicDDL]

New Rule – If one of your picks performs a split during the month it will be disqualified which means you will only have 2 stocks and would not be eligible for first place.

[Wirth]

Goog
Cop
Zolt

[BOOOYAHOOO!]

Good overall growth (historical)... how long would you hold this?

I'd play with outta da muny puts for like June, just go with the strike price that gets you in for around .50 centavos. Small bets pay off huge, so bet small and roll em over if they miraculously hold em up and yer strike does not get hit befor expiration.

[ChronicDDL]

Boooyahooo you can call your picks short but the game is not a game of shorting, the only way you can win is if your picks have the greatest percentage gain. You can play your picks short for fun but at the end of the month the only thing that matters in this game is the gains, not the losses. It is a disadvantage to everyone else since the rules do not allow shorting because it is easier to pick a short position then a strong position, maybe we need to change the rules so people can go both short and strong but until then your short position is just for fun and you need your stocks to rise to win.

[BOOOYAHOOO!]

Boooyahooo you can call your picks short but the game is not a game of shorting, the only way you can win is if your picks have the greatest percentage gain. You can play your picks short for fun but at the end of the month the only thing that matters in this game is the gains, not the losses. It is a disadvantage to everyone else since the rules do not allow shorting because it is easier to pick a short position then a strong position, maybe we need to change the rules so people can go both short and strong but until then your short position is just for fun and you need your stocks to rise to win.

Huh?!! It's easier to pick a short position than a long position huh? Then tell me why GOOG, which never should have made it past 300 went all the way to 475! LOL, Did you realize that da mawkets in general have been in a strong uptrend since March of 2003?!! I'll still play me shorts agin da crowd, simply take me entry price, decuct the loss from entry price, divide that loss by entry price to determine my gain. That's fine if it doan count, you aren't gonna get me to go long any stock that needs to get cut in half. Right now 90% of the stocks priced above $50 need to get cut in half....minimum! :o

[ChronicDDL]

Next month’s game members will have the option of going short. It is an un-level playing filed if one member decides to play by a different set of rules even if it is something as simple as shorting a stock.

[ChronicDDL]

March starting prices-

Please double check your 3 picks & their starting price and make sure that it is the open price from today; I could have made a mistake and now is the time to correct it.

Madcowdisease
TGA - 5.69
FCX - 50.63
PD - 138.6

TheChatGuru
LEXR - 6.76
DNA - 86.25
SLB - 116.15

Wqcustom
CDIS - 36.61
ATI - 50.94
GS - 141.98

ChronicDDL
NL - 13.2
BDK - 85.65
TM - 106.8

BB
COGO - 10.25
RAIL - 70.28
PD - 138.6

Aiki14
ABAX - 22.18
SUN - 74.35
TM - 106.8

Mlegha1
TOMO - 22.42
RL - 57.96
ACH - 105

Tekbubble
CCJ - 37.25
PCU - 80.1
RTP - 190.25

Beatthestreet
BBD - 43.13
CRDN - 60
TS - 161.2

Teno4212
SBS - 19.99
VLO - 54.14
TS - 161.2

Englishman26
ITU - 33.3
AH - 58.73
AMG - 98.43

TheBullPicker
PLAY - 25.31
AAPL - 69
TNT - 116.75

GDFLS
SLW - 8.31
AH - 58.73
GOOG - 369

Will
ANAD - 6.29
NUE - 86.3
PGR - 107.13

BigDawg291
KSE - 40.7
ASEI - 76.05
TM - 106.8

Boooyahooo!
ACF - 29.64
UHAL - 89.61
CME - 425.6

BuyOnDips
SABA - 6.29
CENT - 54.22
TM - 106.8

Up2nogd420
ACAD - 14.97
JCI - 71.5
RTP - 190.25

The_menace
CHK - 29.94
CVX - 56.72
BLK - 142.35

Wirth
ZOLT - 17.4
COP - 61.4
GOOG - 369

Xboilermaker & Loslobos71 your picks did not meet the price requirements. You can enter new picks that meet the requirement but you must submit them by midnight tonight west coast time.

[englishman26]

I'm not sure my AMG qualifies either. It was above $100 when I picked it but dropped below in the sell-off yesterday - hence you have it as starting at $98.43 - which I'm not sure is allowed.

Do you want me pick something else, are you going to run it from $98.43, or run it from $100 as it crosses the start line, so to speak??

[ChronicDDL]

Englishman26 you can pick a new stock or if you want to use AMG we can make the starting price $100 since when you posted the pick it was trading in the right range.

[englishman26]

I can't be bothered to find another stock! If you're happy then I'm happy to have it start running once it crosses $100 - which should be tomorrow!

[ChronicDDL]

Update:

Englishman26
ITU - 33.3
AH - 58.73
AMG - 100

[xboilermaker]

Just doing my weekly check of the monthly contest and find that I screwed upwith my picks. Don't know what I was thinking.

[teno4212]

Anyone know where they're at? I'm up 6.7%.. just wondering how that is compared to the rest of you.

[aiki14]

+3.98%

[englishman26]

I thought ChronicDDL was going to do the updates but here you go:

http://mccammon.ucsd.edu/~rlaw/monthly_stockpickers_mar06.png

[englishman26]

The last day of the month!! Who's going to take the coveted monthly stock pickers title?!

[ChronicDDL]

This month’s winner is Will with an overall gain of +14.79%!!!

Previous Monthly Game Winners & Picks (http://chronicstocks.com/chat/viewtopic.php?t=246)

Will +14.79%
Wirth +13.31%
Wqcustom +11.61%
TheChatGuru +11.29%
GDFLS +11.12%
Teno4212 +10.86%
BigDawg291 +8.40%
Up2nogd420 +7.26%
Boooyahooo! +6.43%
*madcowdisease +6.31%
Mlegha1 +5.93%
Tekbubble +3.64%
Aiki14 +2.85%
The_menace +2.17%
BuyOnDips +0.84%
Englishman26 -1.01%
ChronicDDL -5.34%
*BB -5.96%
Beatthestreet -7.16%
TheBullPicker -11.02%

*Disqualified because one of their picks performed a split during the month.

[madcowdisease]

This month’s winner is Will with an overall gain of +14.79%!!!

*madcowdisease +6.31%

*BB -5.96%

*Disqualified because one of their picks performed a split during the month.

You know that's b.s. right? I didn't calculate everybody's totals but if Will won at 14.79% then I'm doubley pissed. I got a 16.2% return on PD, -5.5 on TGA and +18.25 on FGX. Which when totaled up equals a return of 28.95%.

If you mean to tell me I lost b/c of a stock split all I can say is that is the gayest thing I've heard all day.

[the_menace]

You know that's b.s. right? I didn't calculate everybody's totals but if Will won at 14.79% then I'm doubley pissed. I got a 16.2% return on PD, -5.5 on TGA and +18.25 on FGX. Which when totaled up equals a return of 28.95%.

If you mean to tell me I lost b/c of a stock split all I can say is that is the gayest thing I've heard all day.

LOL...its even gayER that you didn't even the rules. It says average with a big A. Moooo. :lol:

[madcowdisease]

LOL...its even gayER that you didn't even the rules. It says average with a big A. Moooo. :lol:

Just read that when I tried to find the disqualification rule. My bad. Still when I recalculate it I move up a few spots assuming I'm not DQ'd with an average of 9.65%. Screw getting DQ'd that wasn't even in the rules.

[ChronicDDL]

Screw getting DQ'd that wasn't even in the rules.

Madcow on page three near the bottom I added the rule, I forgot to add it when I started the thread, anyone who wants to take the game over and change the rules is more than welcome.

[Thierry Martin]

You can't disqualify someone because of a stock split - you just recalculate taking that into account.

[ChronicDDL]

Other members can start a different monthly game with there own rules or just not play this game.

[englishman26]

I think Chronic's threatening to take his ball away.

[Damon]

I think Chronic's threatening to take his ball away.
Heh. That's what it sounds like to me as well. He must really like that rule. Good thing stock splits don't disqualify you in real life. I've had a couple of mine split 2:1 recently and I kind of enjoy it. http://www.cramersmadmoney.com/images/icons/icon10.gif

[Will]

Alright! I wish I had just actually invested in these companies at the first of the month. Oh well, there is always April.

[NATHAN LLOYD]

I've been learning about stocks for 2 months now. I started thinking I could follow Cramer...HA! Then I thought I could follow thestockster.com...HA! Then I thought I could follow momentum mentioned in here...HA! Now, I'm doing homework. Can you find enough info on the net, or is it mandatory to subscribe to something like IBD or the Wall Street Journal?

Anyhow, to save myself from going crosseyed trying to make some picks, I'll throw three out. I'm not used to looking out a month.

AGN > 100
BNI 50-100
TYL 5 - 50 (A Cramer-forum pick)...Got to be risky to win I guess.

[Jicn86]

For the month of April

MLM > 100
NVDA 50-99
NOK 5-49

[Will]

not that I am an expert or anything, but last month when I was picking, I chose ANAD because Semi's had sold off for about 3-4 days prior to that. I figured they would still be a little hot, so I picked it. Momentum is a great thing to have in a stock, but you have to use a little bit of contrarianism if you want to make any money.

Use the hot stocks to find the hot sectors, but then find the ones that are beaten down for no reason.