Thankfully, thankfully Curling is ending!

[zyzzyva57]

Cramer has a week of generic shows in the can to bore us with on holidays, so we know yet again he loves "cat" and the usual Best of Breed stocks good for mutual funds, because these stocks over the years will ooze up ever higher...I would have liked at least one--ONE--generic show for us newbies to the stock game, for example, Cramer and Herb Greenberg going at it explaining the art of knowing when to "hold em or fold em."

How about some insight on Phase III Clinical Drug trials? Occasionally, Cramer's wild picks depend on the outcome of such a trial--how do we monitor these trials? He was very precise on how to handle "ayti" and the xBox introduction. If you cannot know a precise date on such clinical trials, tell us! we are flying in the dark...

In sum, to Cramer, I realize Best of Breed won't hurt us and they are great fillers for 45 minutes shows, but give us newbies some generic help. I've read your book, but do one show of answering your email from us newbies, puh-leaze. Such a show would be one you wouldn't mind watching over and over, because it would be so packed with insights.

When CNBC rerun this week's shows, I won't waste my time. You did not tell us anything us regular viewers did not know how you felt, e.g., "cat," "Cummins," etc...

[the_menace]

You have a good point as the show should be half educational and the rest stock picks and responding to people's questions via email. Although he has done that in his radio show, he needs to do it more often because it will clearly identify things that people are usually unfamiliar with. There's more to the process than stating where the stock is going; which more often people rely on his "instincts".

[Zvolen]

I also agree with your post, I have recently shyed away from his T.V. show, as it is more of a popularity stunt and general stock picks the whole, and been listening more to his radio show which in my eyes is more informative. The guest host, Aaron Task, is actually doing a wonderful job in replacement of Jim. But then againthats just my opinion.

[madcowdisease]

I also agree with your post, I have recently shyed away from his T.V. show, as it is more of a popularity stunt and general stock picks the whole, and been listening more to his radio show which in my eyes is more informative. The guest host, Aaron Task, is actually doing a wonderful job in replacement of Jim. But then againthats just my opinion.

The only thing I don't like about Task is his timorous behavior. He rarely calls a stock and always uses his "contrarian" stance as a cop out. Instead of recommending stocks he always offers ETFs. That's all fine and dandy if that's what we were interested in. But this isn't a retirement investing show. It's Cramer. It's fro the active trader / investor. ETFs have their place but I doubt you'll ever see Cramer recommend a basket like that. He's Mr. B.O.B.

Task is OK every once in awhile, and I like how he has guests so we get a broader perspective. But, it seems to me like he doesn't have a voice of his own. I don't know if he's afraid to step on Jim's toes or what with it being Cramer's show. Whatever the story I'll be glad when he's gone. I think Crmaer has more insight to how the market works than Task. This can be attributed to his 16 or so years on Wall St. He was in the mix and his advice about the shenanigans of Wall St. are why I like him so much. Marking up, commissions, market vs limit orders, and options expiration are just a handful of the things Cramer mentions in his shows to explain market behavior. Task is lacking here.

[zyzzyva57]

Even Cramer needs down time, so I wish CNBC would develop a sub host. My pick would be Herb Greenberg. When he's on going against Cramer, whow-w, school-is-session! Trying to do a series of generic shows for the next 12 months makes what Cramer is doing so obvious. Best of Breed is what I let my mutual fund buy and hold forever.

[Zsuzsa]

You can get information on various clinical trials (aka clinical studies) being conducted nationally from the NIH (National Institutes of Health) website, or the clinicaltrials.gov websites. If you do a search you are also most likely to find links to the various National Institutes (eg National Cancer Institute, NIMH, etc) which would be conducting or supervising the trials.

Ultimately it is better to do a search on a particular clinical trial of atreatment on the NIH website, because clinicaltrials.gov (although a service of NIH) is not really updated regularly.

Also, looking on the website of the company and university(ies) who are collaborating on the research will give you a good idea of where to look and updates on when the research will be finished.

[zyzzyva57]

I have checked out those sites. Is it safe to say that a drug company does not have to make public a definite date for the conclusion of a Phase III testing? (Wasn't knowing this part of Martha Steward's problem--she was leaked a date for a Phase III conclusion which would be $ucce$$ful?) Any thoughts on how to handle a pure speculative play on a drug company Cramer picks that is based on its Phase III conclusion? Otherwise, it strikes me, betting on a small drug company on a knock out drug is a slot machine gamble without some time line so I can set my Trailing Sale to dump out on a failure.

[Zsuzsa]

Because of the nature of a clinical trial, you can't monitor it unless you are directly involved in the collaboration. Plus, you have alot of other factors riding on these trials other than people trying to make money, such as:

-Researchers who take their life's work in research VERY personally and want to be credited with published results
-Individuals (and their families/support system) who have the disease and are eagerly waiting for results (much more than investors are)
-Govt insts. that want to make sure the results are not "biased/tainted" and will be safe for use once clinical trials deem them to be so

Can you imagine what the mayhem would be if they gave people a date? Research could be rushed and done incorrectly to satisfy patients and investors, and though meds are a money maker, they can't risks law suits because they made people sicker or killed them, or if the drugs were no approved just because they had to rush to meet a deadline.

[Zvolen]

The only thing I don't like about Task is his timorous behavior. He rarely calls a stock and always uses his "contrarian" stance as a cop out. Instead of recommending stocks he always offers ETFs. That's all fine and dandy if that's what we were interested in. But this isn't a retirement investing show. It's Cramer. It's fro the active trader / investor. ETFs have their place but I doubt you'll ever see Cramer recommend a basket like that. He's Mr. B.O.B.

Task is OK every once in awhile, and I like how he has guests so we get a broader perspective. But, it seems to me like he doesn't have a voice of his own. I don't know if he's afraid to step on Jim's toes or what with it being Cramer's show. Whatever the story I'll be glad when he's gone. I think Crmaer has more insight to how the market works than Task. This can be attributed to his 16 or so years on Wall St. He was in the mix and his advice about the shenanigans of Wall St. are why I like him so much. Marking up, commissions, market vs limit orders, and options expiration are just a handful of the things Cramer mentions in his shows to explain market behavior. Task is lacking here.


That is true, he does seem timid during the whole show he never makes opinnions of his own just asks his guests what they think about a particular stock. BUt I like the fact as you said that he has all sorts of guests allowing the listener to gain a broader perspective. I was jsut trying to emphasize that Aaron is good mix up from Cramer, I still think Cramer is a far better Annalist with better insight to the market. Shhot, if I didn't like the guy there would be no reason for me to be here. Other issues have also hindered me from watching his show. All in all Cramer is great, he at least got me to become more interested in the stock market again and more proactive in regards to my financial situation.

[Zsuzsa]

I have checked out those sites. Is it safe to say that a drug company does not have to make public a definite date for the conclusion of a Phase III testing? (Wasn't knowing this part of Martha Steward's problem--she was leaked a date for a Phase III conclusion which would be $ucce$$ful?) Any thoughts on how to handle a pure speculative play on a drug company Cramer picks that is based on its Phase III conclusion? Otherwise, it strikes me, betting on a small drug company on a knock out drug is a slot machine gamble without some time line so I can set my Trailing Sale to dump out on a failure.

Basically if you get the 3, you know the drug works, but now instead of testing it you are seeing if it is really going to be a good treatment for thousands of people out there in a clinical setting. Now mind you, alot of sick people may have other complications depending on what disease/disorder you are treating, so in that way phase 3 can be trickier than just "well we know it works lets give to a whole bunch of more people so we can get a license", it has to abide by protocol and prove it is a really good treatment that is going to make a difference in a sick person's life.

Yes, it is a gamble, but at least by phase 3 you know the stuff works! also, Phase 3 can go thru, and phase can turn out to be total trash, because it's post clinical and there are alot more people involved, and things could go down the drain there.

[Zsuzsa]

I just had a pregnancy memory breakdown, and I can't remember if that happened to Martha Stewart, but she was definitely leaked something that was not supposed to be.

[zyzzyva57]

I have tried to do my homework on what exactly this Trial Phase is all about, but I never could pin down a date. Naturally, Cramer won't explain what is the foundation of this gamble, other than it is a gamble. I guess one thing to watch is the Volume of a stock of a company in Phase III for some hints

Thank you for verifying I am not misreading my homework on what Phase III is all about

[Zsuzsa]

You're all good with your phase understandings. One thing I could recommend to you, go to the website of the participating Institute that is collaborating with the study and recruiting the study participants, and see what the participation criteria is like for patients who want to be part of the trial and the explanation to participants on what the protocol is for the trial (they have to be forthcoming with this information since participants need to be aware)

You can compare this to the protocol they need to follow internationally, as well as the protocol used in phase 2 and any subsets of phase 2, and try to get a better idea of what they are looking for. Also, you can do research on common side ailments that occur with the disease they are looking to treat and whether there is anything in study results to suggest they explored effects on those ailments that commonly occur in people with the disease they are trying to treat, one example I can give you is that Hepatitis infection can be common among people with HIV.

[zyzzyva57]

Glad you like the letter "Z" also--Oops, off topic! In sum, to make money or save money, on the results of Phase III testing I best bone up on The Art of Inferring a date before I take the gamble on a drug

[Zsuzsa]

off topic, that is actually my name, yes, I was blessed with a real Z name :)

On topic, sounds like you've got yourself a plan there! "They" usually have a good idea of what they expect to happen/not happen based on prior results and what they know about the nature of the disease and it's complications. In any case druggies are a big gamble, it could take a hit years later after the trials are said and done and people are being prescribed the drugs (as we have seen in the past).

But if you are in it for the short term, there may be a surge of people see good phase 2 results, and sometimes you can get lucky with preliminary results or publications about any changes in research occuring within the trials.

Kinda like a murder mystery novel, almost all the clues could be there, you just have to interpret them correctly to know what the ending probably holds!

[zyzzyva57]

A few months back I remember Cramer pushed two stocks as sheer gambles on this phase of testing. One failed, and there was an uproar from the losers. But Cramer said these were sheer gambles. The other drug for migranes I assume is still in testing. He has never mentioned either stock since. I didn't take a dip simply because I could not establish a time line for the testing. Cramer did say once a drug goes into Phase III the odds are it will be approved, but I did not like this assurance. When I gamble on a stock, I want the odds in my favor and not the darn house. I think the fancy way of saying this is do your homework. I am going to find a stock in Phase III and practice inferring on dates and outcomes. Peace...