Visa

[xpiratesxcorex]

hey guys,

I was just wondering who is still holding Visa, and what do you think about it going forward now that we've seen it trade like a dog?

[freakscene]

out with minor profits this morning

[DSNT]

I dumped all mine last week at $64. Took a nice profit, so I'm glad I did. I may get back in if it hits mid-to-low 50s.

I still think its good long-term, but there will be plenty of entry points.

[englishman26]

I bought more yesterday and I'm holding for $65-70. I don't think it will get anywhere near low to mid 50s.

[DSNT]

That's where it should be priced, but banks need cash and I think we'll start seeing some block selling. That Brazilian bank sold yesterday, which caused that nasty afternoon drop. National City will sell when they can. More will probably follow.

[Hondaboy]

In two weeks this thing is going to be on fire.

[lilturbododge]

In two weeks this thing is going to be on
fire.

I am thinking by the end of may...when the other tax rebate goes out, it will go up...when you give someone that much money, they will spend it, and more...now that computer cost less to them, but not enough for what they have, so the charge the rest...plus summer vacation is coming up, people charge the trips...ohh and christmas...do i need to say more?

[englishman26]

That's where it should be priced, but banks need cash and I think we'll start seeing some block selling. That Brazilian bank sold yesterday, which caused that nasty afternoon drop. National City will sell when they can. More will probably follow.

How do you know this?

Either way, my valuation of $65 to $70 is based on all of the banks selling their shares (or at least people remembering that they have them as they're not included in the OS). It could be valued up to $130 otherwise.

[englishman26]

Looking strong here at $65 going into the close. This is a l/t hold for me but I might trade in and out on these moves - especially back around the $69 high.

[Horsefish]

Looking strong here at $65 going into the close. This is a l/t hold for me but I might trade in and out on these moves - especially back around the $69 high.

Been watching this thread and V for a while. Got in at 62.27 today. Made my day.
Thanks for the thoughts, but why would you get out here? I think that your original $70 call is correct and maybe low.

[englishman26]

Been watching this thread and V for a while. Got in at 62.27 today. Made my day.
Thanks for the thoughts, but why would you get out here? I think that your original $70 call is correct and maybe low.

I'm not selling in the sense of getting out and staying out but this spike might be tradeable. I believe in my $70 target but even then I'm going to let some ride for a few months.

[DSNT]

How do you know this?

Either way, my valuation of $65 to $70 is based on all of the banks selling their shares (or at least people remembering that they have them as they're not included in the OS). It could be valued up to $130 otherwise.
There have been a lot of articles saying they might or might not sell their shares. It has been back and forth. The latest I read, which was yesterday, said they might not. but the day before they said they would have to due to cashflow problems.

Given the run yesterday and the (slight) possibility of the market calming down in the near future, maybe low 50s is an underestimate. I am still going to wait for a pullback in the next couple weeks and get back in.

[Horsefish]

That's where it should be priced, but banks need cash and I think we'll start seeing some block selling. That Brazilian bank sold yesterday, which caused that nasty afternoon drop. National City will sell when they can. More will probably follow.

Question: Are block trades large transactions between institutions? Do these affect market prices?
Reason I'm asking is that V held up pretty well after that employment number today and I'm trying to guess whether or not V has stabilized here.
If we do see some growth in the 3rd or 4th quarter, V will likely be one of the stocks that will see large upside IMO. I want to put on a larger position but am not sure if the IPO has settled down yet.

[englishman26]

Just noticed that the reported OS now includes the bank owned shares (which it didn't until now). Therefore the valuation will be far more solidly on the 65-70 range than anywhere near 130. I will sell a chunk in the 69 -70 area if it gets there (as per my original evaluation) but I'd still like to hold a bit for longer to just see where it goes. GLTA.

[englishman26]

Visa will announce earnings on April 28th. With the IPO they can hardly fail and I think there could be a lot of buying between now and then and the day of.

Visa Inc. To Announce Fiscal Second Quarter 2008 Financial Results on April 28, 2008
Tuesday April 8, 4:05 pm ET
SAN FRANCISCO, April 8, 2008 /PRNewswire-FirstCall/ -- Visa Inc. (NYSE: V (http://finance.yahoo.com/q?s=v&d=t) - News (http://finance.yahoo.com/q/h?s=v)) will report its fiscal second quarter 2008 financial results on Monday, April 28, 2008. The results will be included in a press release, with accompanying financial information, that will be released after market close and posted on the Visa Investor Relations website.Visa's executive management team will then host a live audio webcast beginning at 5:00 p.m. EDT (2:00 p.m. PDT) to discuss the financial results and business highlights.


All interested parties are invited to listen to the live webcast at http://investor.visa.com (http://investor.visa.com/). A replay of the webcast will be available on the Visa Investor Relations website for 30 days.


About Visa: Visa Inc. operates the world's largest retail electronic payments network providing processing services and payment product platforms. This includes consumer credit, debit, prepaid and commercial payments, which are offered under the Visa, Visa Electron, Interlink and PLUS brands. Visa enjoys acceptance around the world, and Visa/PLUS is one of the world's largest global ATM networks, offering cash access in local currency in more than 170 countries.

[mike95910]

Wow, visa has over 775 million shares outstanding. I like visa a lot but am going to wait on this one for a pullback

[englishman26]

Wow, visa has over 775 million shares outstanding.

You know what "shares outstanding" means right?? (And actually it's 805.9 million).

Otherwise what is your point?

[Seamus]

I watched Fast Money today, here is part of it;Visa (V) dropped 3%. After Tuesday's 5% pop, volatile Visa gave some of it back Wednesday. – I still think it has downside, counsels Guy Adami.

Guy went into this further stating that the first part of the up-coming quarterly report is going to be all legal issues. He wanted to stay away from V until this was figured out.

MC may be the better play right now.

[englishman26]

Yeah he said that the day before it went up 5% too.

I stand by my current valuation of V at 65-70 and I'll sell part at 69-70 and hold the rest because I believe they will continue to grow for many years.

[simmitrades]

I expect to see visa to pull back off of its recent high, then should see 70-72, should be higher as mastercard moves up. I got in at ipo price sold the second day at 65 and got back in about a week ago around 62 with 30% of my original shares, looking for a another push to new highs before i sell.

[englishman26]

Just sold half my V here at 69.15. I'll see where the rest goes.

[rawbeef006]

I am torn. I bought 1,000 shares at $57. I think it will still go up. Im holding for another few weeks to see what it does.

[englishman26]

I am torn. I bought 1,000 shares at $57. I think it will still go up. Im holding for another few weeks to see what it does.

I think it's prudent to take a little off the table here. Don't be a piggy.

[JayIV]

I've been trading the dips on V since it's IPO. Sold half of my position last week at 67.

Thinking of selling the rest today and holding for a pull back. Today is a WAY new high, so chances are good that it will pull back in the next few days here.

[rawbeef006]

I will not be called Piggy, especially not by an englishman. Therefore, I have sold half my position in V at 70.10. I hope that was smart, we shall see.

[englishman26]

I will not be called Piggy, especially not by an englishman. Therefore, I have sold half my position in V at 70.10. I hope that was smart, we shall see.

You got a great price - I think you'll feel better about it and you can buy it all back if it dips to 63 again next week. Go eat some bacon to celebrate your pig avoidance moment! Have a great weekend. :beerglass:

[DSNT]

$70.10 is an amazing sell. Nice job. Maybe I should have waited before cashing out at $64 a couple weeks ago, but I really expected a pull back. Might jump back in if it hits < $65.

[rawbeef006]

well, it did hit $71.5 already, i think it will still go higher. Damn, I should have held on to all of it. Thankfully I kept half. If it goes under 65, im back in. I think quarterly report is due out next week, anybody guess what will happen?

[JayIV]

Visa is supposed to release Q1 reports on the 24th, and Q2 reports on the 28th.

My guess is the reports show some unfavorable outcomes, and the prices falls. During which I will be adding many, many shares to my position.

[englishman26]

My guess is the reports show some unfavorable outcomes,

Why?

[chrissential]

125 shares at 59.50. Hoping it dips down past 65 again so I could throw more at it.

[tyrant77]

Have you thought about the fact that there has been the quiet period? In something like 7-8 days analysts can start upgrading and I suppose downgrading the stock. IMO I think they will be looking to upgrade it. Visa is a better and company and has more market share than Mastercard and look where Mastercard sits today. I personally bought at 70.35 as a LONG term investment but wouldn't be surprised to see the analysts upgrade one after the other after the quite period expires.

I guess one could argue the point that the banks can start selling the shares they accumulated to raise capital but I think people want a reason to get back into the market and I think Visa might be one of those reasons and the analysts are going to give it to them. Also why would the big boys sell if they perhaps know their analysts expectations?

I'm not genius... but just wanted to offer my opinion in an effort to help everyone make their own conclusion.

Good luck!!!!

[netwrangler]

Have you thought about the fact that there has been the quiet period? In something like 7-8 days analysts can start upgrading and I suppose downgrading the stock. IMO I think they will be looking to upgrade it. Visa is a better and company and has more market share than Mastercard and look where Mastercard sits today. I personally bought at 70.35 as a LONG term investment but wouldn't be surprised to see the analysts upgrade one after the other after the quite period expires.

I guess one could argue the point that the banks can start selling the shares they accumulated to raise capital but I think people want a reason to get back into the market and I think Visa might be one of those reasons and the analysts are going to give it to them. Also why would the big boys sell if they perhaps know their analysts expectations?

I'm not genius... but just wanted to offer my opinion in an effort to help everyone make their own conclusion.

Good luck!!!!

Interesting angle.

The quiet period, of course, applies only to insiders and to those analysts affiliated with underwriters, not to all analysts. That said, the 'bounce' from analysts reports at the end of the quiet period is documented.

Here's a link to a white paper on the subject.
(http://bear.cba.ufl.edu/ritter/publ_papers/The%20IPO%20Quiet%20Period%20Revisited.pdf)
Note that the paper was published in 2004. Don't remember the date of the last 'reform' that was supposed to keep analysts from hyping their company's client stocks, so don't know if the rules have changed. :dong:

[tyrant77]

Interesting angle.

The quiet period, of course, applies only to insiders and to those analysts affiliated with underwriters, not to all analysts. That said, the 'bounce' from analysts reports at the end of the quiet period is documented.

Here's a link to a white paper on the subject.
(http://bear.cba.ufl.edu/ritter/publ_papers/The%20IPO%20Quiet%20Period%20Revisited.pdf)
Note that the paper was published in 2004. Don't remember the date of the last 'reform' that was supposed to keep analysts from hyping their company's client stocks, so don't know if the rules have changed. :dong:

Interesting... I didn't realize that. Learn something new everyday. Thanks for the info

[englishman26]

Just went through it's old high and could pretty much go anywhere at this point. Probably got at least 1 more day of this run to go. Look out above!

Not sure what earnings will bring. I feel I have enough headroom to stay in for the ride.

[simmitrades]

fast money talked to stock up tonight in the after hours, took 2/3's of my visa of the table at 75.20 for a 21% gain after the 45% on the ipo , basic sentiment says if everyone is bullish go the other way.....they will have a huge quarter everyone is expecting it may be getting priced in, lets see how much they can crush it by....hopefully well see some selling into earnings tomorrow, would like to see v pull back to 72-73 at some point tomorrow so i can add 1/2 of what i took of tonight, if not im letting the rest ride (had some nice profits) would rather be a pig, than be a hog and get slaughtered.

[rawbeef006]

visa at 76 now. Gee, englishman, thanks for not letting me be a pig. Had I got those extra six points, I would have felt bad about that. Oh well, its only $3,000 which is half my yearly salary. That's right, I only make $6000 a year, but its all i can do since i got into prison. now i can't buy any smokes, and I won't be the big man on the block any more. And bubba just hardly seems interested lately. :(

[englishman26]

visa at 76 now. Gee, englishman, thanks for not letting me be a pig. Had I got those extra six points, I would have felt bad about that. Oh well, its only $3,000 which is half my yearly salary. That's right, I only make $6000 a year, but its all i can do since i got into prison. now i can't buy any smokes, and I won't be the big man on the block any more. And bubba just hardly seems interested lately. :(

If you're in prison you probably don't understand "downside risk". Say hi to bubba for me!

[rawbeef006]

sold half my position today for 75.8 . I bet now we have got to the top. I believe that were going to see stocks generally falling back, since we are starting the summer months, which is usually pull back time, and the financial news in general is fairly depressing.

[metal door slides open, then slams shut hard] "Why hello, Mr. Snipes, guess were gonna be roommates..."

[rawbeef006]

sold final visa shares at 77.05. hope that was wise. i made a nice profit there. Anyone still holding?

[englishman26]

Yeah still holding. My plan was to sell half at $70 and hold the rest for 6 months. That is what I am doing.

[englishman26]

V did 52c a share, well ahead of analysts estimates yet is down ~6% in afterhours trading;

``Expectations for Visa, because of the overdone run-up in the stock price, were likely beyond what Visa could have reached,'' Craig Maurer, an analyst at New York-based Calyon Securities, said in an interview. He rates the company ``buy.''

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=conewsstory&refer=conews&tkr=V:US&sid=amuEGYNItSJs

[LeoR2D2]

I believe analysts expected on average 29% growth and Visa only forecasted 20% growth (quoting from memory).

So the new question is, what do you do at 70. Buy or Wait :)

[englishman26]

Well it looks like MA made V look good as it never really saw it's afterhours prices and is approaching $78 here. How high can it go, indeed?? Like I say, just holding the rest of my position for a few months to enjoy the ride.

[englishman26]

Closed at almost $81! Maybe that longterm target of $130 was not so crazy afterall!

[chrissential]

Sold some of mine at around 71 to get into ipi. I got in too high with IPI at 51.88 and now I'm sittin' pretty. :pcguru: :hmmmm:

[rawbeef006]

poor chrissential. I did the same thing, unloaded V in the mid seventies, and bought ipi. As of now, v is at 84.0. Except I bought ipi at 46.2 and now its 47.8, so its okay, but i sure do regret selling that visa.

[john_for_u80]

poor chrissential. I did the same thing, unloaded V in the mid seventies, and bought ipi. As of now, v is at 84.0. Except I bought ipi at 46.2 and now its 47.8, so its okay, but i sure do regret selling that visa.

I am skeptical on Commodities now. Keep a watch on DBA & POT. If they go higher on huge volume that means big money is still interested in AG sector. Better step at the side for a while in Ags & get into some tech stocks. If you still think AG sector will go higher keep a stop loss at 44.5 (just below IPI's low till now).

[sealatte]

Closed at almost $81! Maybe that longterm target of $130 was not so crazy afterall!

well just look at MA MasterCard. its already $278. I think V will follow MA in upward movement. There might be some hickups on the way but it will rebound with full steam.. I see $90 by Friday......

I have been buying V for last few weeks with good average cost at $66.

sealatte

[englishman26]

So soon after the IPO I did this little comparison of the relative price of V vs. MA (http://www.onlinetradersforum.com/showthread.php?t=18563&highlight=visa&page=11).

I think now that we recently got some numbers out of both companies it’d be interesting to see where we still are in the comparison (and my wife is in her Spanish class tonight and I’m bored and needed to kill some time - and distract myself from Liverpool losing today!). :confused:

Back then (March 20th), MA had a market cap of ~$28billion, V at $45billion. That made it equal to V on the basis of an apples-to-apples comparison of number of transactions once V traded up to $65 – which it did, to give it a market cap of $52.6billion. Target was $70. Done. That was with a relative transactions ratio of 1.88 in favor of V. :proud:

Where are we now?
MA trading at $278.16 has a market cap of $36.2billion (Up 29% in just over a month!).
V trading at $83.45 has a market cap of $67.2billion (Up 49% in the same period!)

MA said in their earnings that their yield from processed transactions was up 155%!! (I know that’s not the same as the number of transactions now but I’m going with what I have here!) Anyway – priceless!! Revenue grew 29%. :beerglass:

V revenue grew 22%. I couldn’t find any new transaction data but let’s stick with the apples-to-apples and assume revenues=transactions. That means that MA have closed the gap on the transaction ratio: from 1.88 to 1.78. Therefore we’ll allow V to have a 1.78 larger market cap than MA. Currently the market cap ratio is 1.85. To equal 1.78, V needs to trade down to $79.89. Alternatively, MA needs to trade up to $290.40. :fisheye:

This of course ignores one major factor; continued growth. It’s hard to factor in what that’s worth or say that it’ll be consistent. But at the moment MA should get a slight premium for it’s 7% higher growth rate. In fact, we could argue it should trade 7% higher than V. Currently it is, by this method, trading about 4.4% behind V. :eek2:

Anyway - conclusion, both have been on a tare and are likely to pullback, starting tomorrow. But when they start moving again (which they will and both will go higher than here so it’s all good), MA deserves to move up more. As of tomorrow I’m changing my policy on V and switching out and into MA after the pullback. :cool2:

GLTA. :top:

[englishman26]

Just sold my V at 87.10. I'll wait a few days for a pullback in MA and buy it next week - I think around 280 it's a buy but then go as high as 340. GLTA.

[TheChartGuru]

V is overbought with an RSI(15) of 82.92 and trading above the upper bollinger band, plus it formed a spinning top at the top of the trend. It may pull back 2-3 days which will be an excellent buying opportunity. Maybe around $75

The Guru has spoken

[Flyboy]

V is overbought with an RSI(15) of 82.92 and trading above the upper bollinger band, plus it formed a spinning top at the top of the trend. It may pull back 2-3 days which will be an excellent buying opportunity. Maybe around $75

The Guru has spoken

Sure hope your right on this. I'm in @ 84.10...(late bloomer) and would like to add to my position. I lack all ability to read charts, but I'm reading up and working towards comprehension.

As one can see, this is my very first post. I trade actively and to date, luck over brains has served me well. Thanks for your insight on charting as I'll need to hang my hat on this until I get up to speed.

Cgeers, Paul

[balkanboy]

In my opinion, we will see Visa above $100/share by the end of summer. Once it pulls back a bit, I'll be adding a bit more to my portfolio. :mrgreen:

[peter518]

The best time to buy PUTs Visa is this morning.

The next BUY (Calls) entry point would be: 70-75$.

Cheers!

Peter

[sealatte]

well moved up to $87 today..
could see $90 by Friday.
I think the correction occur at $71.

sealatte

[cramerica1972]

question,do you get the after-hours trading bump in the stock price?

[TheChartGuru]

Formed a doji at the top of the trend and RSI and MACD indicating negative divergence. Should pull back to the $70's.

The Guru has spoken

[Flyboy]

Formed a doji at the top of the trend and RSI and MACD indicating negative divergence. Should pull back to the $70's.

The Guru has spoken

Would you have a time frame on this? Thanks for posting, I'm thinking of off loading my position and then re-supply at the pull-back.

[Flyboy]

Would you have a time frame on this? Thanks for posting, I'm thinking of off loading my position and then re-supply at the pull-back.


OK..out @ $89.20 (pre open). Looking for the drop to pile on.

[Jennifer Flanders]

As for me, current $90+ price for Visa is not here for long. Visa has a great business model as they don’t undertake credit risks, but its real value, IMHO, is not more than $50 per share. The money paid by investors will be spent on solving problems of shareholding banks, instead of development of the company itself. It’s a great move from the banks’ point of view, but not for individual investors. Visa’s IPO was encouraged by the MasterCard’s success, but MasterCard entered the market when it was bullish.

[englishman26]

That's an interesting take - probably a lot of truth in it. But how did you come up with your $50 valuation? (They're worth ~$75 vs. MA on relative number of transactions).

[Jennifer Flanders]

My approximate price of Visa’s stock at $50 per share is a long-term estimate based on the IPO stock valuation of $37-42. Possibly, it is now worth $75 per share, but the future promises more decline than growth. First, if the recession is here for long, then increase in card emission, especially that of credit cards might slow down. Add record debts on Americans’ credit cards, which might as well grow into a crisis similar to the subprime one. Second, in near future, plastic cards will get out of use, and then both Visa and MasterCard will need to reorient, which is quite costly. Third, there is still a risk of large stock sales by shareholding banks, which might lower the market price as well. Besides, each failure of the behemoth (like the most recent decline in net income) gets negative reaction of investors (the stock dropped to $75 per share).
Jen

[ChartShark]

Second, in near future, plastic cards will get out of use, and then both Visa and MasterCard will need to reorient, which is quite costly.



Do you see RFID implants right around the corner?

[englishman26]

I think we'll all have barcodes on our heads!

Plastic is not going to stop being used near in the near future!! Quite the opposite - emerging markets are just getting these - there is huge growth. I don't own V at the moment but I want to buy it back once it finishes pulling back.

[TheChartGuru]

Visa hit a low of 78.10 a couple of days ago. It may reverse and continue its upward momentum. Momentum stocks like to catch their breaths on the MA(20) then continue to run. If it climbs above yesterday's high of $83.50, it may run above $100.

http://tinyurl.com/4qo24c

The Guru has spoken

[Jennifer Flanders]

Yes, you are right regarding emerging markets, which are very much cash people at the moment. However in Asia, for instance, people do not trust banks really much, so expecting big credit card boom there is not relevant at the moment. As of the US, our credit card market is full. Moreover, great part of sales is not turning to Internet. And there are simpler and safer ways to pay over the Internet than credit cards, I mean PayPal (which total sales increased by 33% on eBay last year) and Amazon Payment (recently started). The latter is charging money right off your bank account and needs no credit card.
However, do not be focused only on the plastic factor. There are other factors to affect Visa’s stock price which I put down in the comment above.
Regards.

[TheChartGuru]

V getting ready for take off.....currently, $83.88

The Guru has spoken

[Hondaboy]

:tongue:It needs to catch on fire already hehe. I got back in and now its slow as dirt.

[LeoR2D2]

V getting ready for take off.....currently, $83.88

The Guru has spoken

Well you successfully called the top right there.. :(

Anybody except ChartGuru - are you buying at 75 or waiting for further decline?

[dochesgriff]

I bought at 77.75 before the run up and will build to my position at 73. Buy the dips on this one and you will be rewarded.

[SadbutTrue]

I bought at 77.75 before the run up and will build to my position at 73. Buy the dips on this one and you will be rewarded.

So the general concensus is that this free-fall will stop? I'm new to the whole investing thing (V was my first stock purchase, got in at 61), and its been tough watching it falter the last few weeks. I guess my perspective is a bit off though, since I've only been doing this for 2 months.

[SadbutTrue]

I bought at 77.75 before the run up and will build to my position at 73. Buy the dips on this one and you will be rewarded.

So the general consensus is to stick with this? Its my first stock purchase and I got in at 61, and its been hard to watch it tumble down from 89.. but i guess i've only been doing this for 2 months so my perspective is off

ps I tried to post this earlier and didn't see it up, hopefully it works this time...

[Jordan]

Anybody buying at this level?

[dochesgriff]

I hoping to add more at 73, but it looks like I was too low for the current dip. I am not sure I would buy today, but it was interesting the past few days. The best part about V is that it is one of the few green stocks on my screen today. You gotta love those kinds of stocks.

[Jordan]

I wish I bought three days ago like I wanted to. Still going up, I think it will break the hight this week and continue further