TMA raised 1.35bil

[Thunderbolt]

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080331/20080331006742.html?.v=1

I was tempted to buy in today at $1.03 for a quick day trade during the panic selling on the S&P news. However, before I could work an order it was bouncing back up into the $1.20 range and starting to pull back and I definetly didn't want to hold this one overnight! :dong:

Oh well, should be interesting tomorrow..

[Hondaboy]

This stocks full of nightmares

[itrader]

Can one of the seniors take a shot at this stock. Now that they have raised this money, what are the expectations? I got in for 1500 @ 1.69. What is the target price roughly? I know that it will touch around 2.50 tomorrow. Should I just sell at that point or do u guys think it has a better play? Any input is greatly appreciated. I won't be home tomorrow. So, I'm thinking about putting in a sell order based on the advice from the seniors here. Thanks...


-iT

[Tonkatoy]

I hope it does well, I took a gamble and picked up April 2.50 Calls for .15 each.

[aiki14]

Can one of the seniors take a shot at this stock. Now that they have raised this money, what are the expectations? I got in for 1500 @ 1.69. What is the target price roughly? I know that it will touch around 2.50 tomorrow. Should I just sell at that point or do u guys think it has a better play? Any input is greatly appreciated. I won't be home tomorrow. So, I'm thinking about putting in a sell order based on the advice from the seniors here. Thanks...


-iT

If it hit's 2.50 tomorrow you'll hear me yelling. I hadn't been playing this til friday when they were supposed to announce whether they had gotten their finances together after hours. I took a small long stock position and bought some calls as a complete spec play. Today when the news of the S&P rating removal came out and the stock tanked a few of us in the chatroom added and sold a few times. The news was nonsense because the S&P was taking a rating away for paper TMA had never issued and in fact had asked S&P to remove it. Now the news we had hoped for has arrived in the announcement of completing the $1.35b offering. The question is whether the market will see this as so dilutive that the stock price doesn't go up from here. As I read it, and I am limited in my ability to really assess the share value looking quickly, we should see $2 at least and $3 as an extreme high value. I get that by the estimate that 4billion shares will float and they'll have an approximate enterprise value of $4billion and a multiple of 2 to 3 based on potential growth. The multiple stock classes and warrants and notes makes anything a bit of a guess for sure.
All that said I am glad to be in the stock at 1.21 and the apr2.50 calls @.15

[MaryKay1965]

If it hit's 2.50 tomorrow you'll hear me yelling. I hadn't been playing this til friday when they were supposed to announce whether they had gotten their finances together after hours. I took a small long stock position and bought some calls as a complete spec play. Today when the news of the S&P rating removal came out and the stock tanked a few of us in the chatroom added and sold a few times. The news was nonsense because the S&P was taking a rating away for paper TMA had never issued and in fact had asked S&P to remove it. Now the news we had hoped for has arrived in the announcement of completing the $1.35b offering. The question is whether the market will see this as so dilutive that the stock price doesn't go up from here. As I read it, and I am limited in my ability to really assess the share value looking quickly, we should see $2 at least and $3 as an extreme high value. I get that by the estimate that 4billion shares will float and they'll have an approximate enterprise value of $4billion and a multiple of 2 to 3 based on potential growth. The multiple stock classes and warrants and notes makes anything a bit of a guess for sure.
All that said I am glad to be in the stock at 1.21 and the apr2.50 calls @.15

You'll be lucky if it's worth anything at all. I sold all of my postion in TMA as soon as I found out the private equities firms would be offered shares of common stock for the measly price of .01/share, as well as getting an 18% return on the 1.35B that was being loaned to Thornburg to save them from bankruptcy.

Aiki, I hope you got one of those "pre-market" trading accounts so you can dump this sh** before the "average Joes'* starting dumping their remaining shares. Not.......I hope you have to wait alongside the "average Joes"."

Only an idiot would have bought shares of Thornburg in the last couple of days.

[aiki14]

You'll be lucky if it's worth anything at all. I sold all of my postion in TMA as soon as I found out the private equities firms would be offered shares of common stock for the measly price of .01/share, as well as getting an 18% return on the 1.35B that was being loaned to Thornburg to save them from bankruptcy.

Aiki, I hope you got one of those "pre-market" trading accounts so you can dump this sh** before the "average Joes'* starting dumping their remaining shares. Not.......I hope you have to wait alongside the "average Joes"."

Only an idiot would have bought shares of Thornburg in the last couple of days.

Wow, look at you trying to make a contribution, you should have been around at 3:10 this afternoon when it went to $1.05 then to 1.27, then back to 1.15 then 1.21 again, a few of us idiots made a nice profit, but that's trading, nothing you would be interested in.
As to tomorrow, we'll see.
Here is the latest from the WSJ:

Thornburg Averts Bankruptcy
By LINGLING WEI
April 1, 2008
Thornburg Mortgage Inc., a residential-finance company hit hard by the credit crunch, said Monday it had succeeded in raising new capital to stave off bankruptcy.

After a struggle of more than a week, the real-estate investment trust, specializing in making large mortgages to people with good credit, said it raised $1.35 billion through selling bonds, warrants to purchase its common shares and interests in certain mortgage assets. The company plans to use the proceeds from the offering to satisfy a capital-raising requirement set by its lenders, who gave the company an extension through Monday to raise $948 million or risk losing funding.

To sell the bonds, Thornburg is paying a high price. Buyers of the bonds will get 18% interest initially and warrants to buy Thornburg shares for a penny a share. Thornburg said last night it had received $1.15 billion of the proceeds from the offering. The remaining $200 million of the offering proceeds is being held in escrow and will be delivered to the company upon the completion of a tender offer for its preferred stock.

The funding problem for Thornburg, based in Santa Fe, N.M., underscores the challenges facing many financial firms at a time when the credit-market turmoil has severely curtailed access to capital. Unlike subprime lenders -- those catering to people with poor credit -- Thornburg has prided itself on a low default rate and a $35 billion portfolio of adjustable-rate mortgages and mostly highly rated mortgage securities.

Still, the company's reliance on borrowed money to generate returns made it vulnerable to short-term market gyrations and margin calls when the value of its portfolio that served as collateral for its borrowings dropped sharply.

Write to Lingling Wei at lingling.wei@dowjones.com

[aiki14]

In the 1.70+ range P/M.

[aiki14]

Out at 1.6807, feeling like an idiot only making $.47/share in a day.

[MaryKay1965]

Wow, look at you trying to make a contribution, you should have been around at 3:10 this afternoon when it went to $1.05 then to 1.27, then back to 1.15 then 1.21 again, a few of us idiots made a nice profit, but that's trading, nothing you would be interested in.


Wow, Aiki, you are soooooo good. You were able to buy in at exactly the rock bottom price and sell at exactly the top price. How did you hit the top and bottom right on the money. Wow.....you're such a stock guru. I'm sure all of your sheep are sooooo impressed with you, Mr. Sheephearder. Can you walk on water too? turn water into wine? you get my point.

Aiki, you're so full of SH**, anyone can look in the rearview mirror and say anything that "fits the situation at hand."

If you bought into a company, as you allege, that is in the business of lending money, that had to borrow money to save their a$$, at 18%, and in addition offer shares of their company for .01/share, then for once I am at a complete loss of words. By admiting you bought shares of TMA, I think you said enough for the both of us.

[aiki14]

Back in at 1.37.
marykay, the directions clearly state, only use the paint in a well ventilated room.

[Tonkatoy]

I'm an idiot, I bought some...

[MaryKay1965]

Back in at 1.37.
marykay, the directions clearly state, only use the paint in a well ventilated room.

Short or Long? Tell us ol' Great One. Also what is your exit point. Please do let us know before you make your move.

Remember, anyone can look in the rearview mirror and forecast what was on the side of the road they just passed.

[aiki14]

Short or Long? Tell us ol' Great One. Also what is your exit point. Please do let us know before you make your move.

Remember, anyone can look in the rearview mirror and forecast what was on the side of the road they just passed.

Long, closed out before the bell at 1.40. By the way, I give all my trades before I make them in the chatroom.

[Tonkatoy]

I wasn't able to get out so tomorrow I'm going to see what happens, I see in aftermarket it got up to 1.47 or so.... i might get lucky, I hate losing money.....

[Thunderbolt]

I guess the market didn't care for the massive dilution.

"aiki" how did you know to get out at $1.68?
Do you as rule get out when your up 15% or so.

[Tonkatoy]

hmm I'm thinking I was an idiot :thumpdown:

[Hondaboy]

hmm I'm thinking I was an idiot :thumpdown:

Tonka you are soo full of it. You make so much money LOL. Have faith man, i think it will hit that 1.60 target you want when it opens up tomorrow. At least I hope so.

[aiki14]

I guess the market didn't care for the massive dilution.

"aiki" how did you know to get out at $1.68?
Do you as rule get out when your up 15% or so.

I saw it go to 1.69 by 1.70 twice and not break up, and the volume on the bid was failing so I hit a market sell and got executed at 1.6807
And yes, as a rule I will cash out a profit rather than wait. The percentage is different for different situations.

[Tonkatoy]

I don't know Honda, we'll see tomorrow, before I drop the kids off, I'll see if this is sitting well for me to unload it.

[MaryKay1965]

Long, closed out before the bell at 1.40. By the way, I give all my trades before I make them in the chatroom.

Wow....a whopping .03/share. How many shares do you have to buy to cover just the broker commissions in and out on a trade like that?

Couple mill?

:top:

[Hondaboy]

Wow....a whopping .03/share. How many shares do you have to buy to cover just the broker commissions in and out on a trade like that?

Couple mill?

:top:

Profit is Profit in my eyes :D. Alot of people that chase for the big gains don't last long and give up fast.

If I where to buy 4,000 shares using scott and sold for .03 that would have given me a 120 dollar profit with 14 dollars going to scott. Not alot of money but overall its money I never had.

[aiki14]

Wow....a whopping .03/share. How many shares do you have to buy to cover just the broker commissions in and out on a trade like that?

Couple mill?

:top:

I didn't want to hold it overnight. And 2% is just fine, I'll scalp for 50bps and make money all day.
Got your 4 off site messages, and returned the favor.

[Tonkatoy]

Positive Karma for TMA :thefinger:

[yupyup]

Couple million shares, assuming just 2 million. Wouldn't that be 60 grand?

[aiki14]

Wow....a whopping .03/share. How many shares do you have to buy to cover just the broker commissions in and out on a trade like that?

Couple mill?

:top:

Wow using my picture as your avatar. I knew you loved me. I am a little concerned about the bug problem at your tanning salon
Look at that review? Terrible.
http://www.findlocaltanning.com/North-Carolina/Heat-Waves-Tanning-Salon-10891.html

[aiki14]

And another one, shocking.
http://local.yahoo.com/details?id=35480258&lsrc=results&p=Tanning+Salons&csz=Farmville%2C+NC&fr=&lcscb=F%2FMpCzxdE7c

[MaryKay1965]

Wow using my picture as your avatar. I knew you loved me.

Why yes I am using your picture as my avatar.

I heard you were quite the party-animal on your last trip to San Francisco. LOL

[aiki14]

Why yes I am using your picture as my avatar.

I heard you were quite the party-animal on your last trip to San Francisco. LOL

Thanks for changing it back. I love S.F. great city. I love Raleigh too, gonna be there at NC State in a few weeks. By the way, hows Rita?

[MaryKay1965]

Thanks for changing it back. I love S.F. great city. I love Raleigh too, gonna be there at NC State in a few weeks. By the way, hows Rita?

Great, stop by and see me. You know the address. Raleigh only 1 hr. away. Rita who? Don't know a Rita.

P.S. If you stop by, make sure to bring my DVD''s or the $2500 you owe me.

[aiki14]

Great, stop by and see me.

Count on it.

[MaryKay1965]

Count on it.

I'd be delighted to meet you face to face. Don't forget my DVD's or the $2500 you owe me.

[aiki14]

I'd be delighted to meet you face to face. Don't forget my DVD's or the $2500 you owe me.

At your tanning salon? The same one that refused the DVD's in the first place because they didn't know who you were? You are a liar and a nutcase.

[Yankee Fan]

At your tanning salon? The same one that refused the DVD's in the first place because they didn't know who you were? You are a liar and a nutcase.

Why do you respond to this person, nobody believes her, or has any respect for her. You look like a retard when you stoop to her level. Stop it already for gods sake.

__________________________________
Yankees 3 Bluejays 2

[aiki14]

Why do you respond to this person, nobody believes her, or has any respect for her. You look like a retard when you stoop to her level. Stop it already for gods sake.

__________________________________
Yankees 3 Bluejays 2

You're right, not much else to say. Except, did you see Cabrera tonight? Good to see Wang pitch well, and Joba and Mo clean it up. Great start for Girardi as well.

[aiki14]

Getting back on topic:
Looking at the financing in toto, you can easily make the case for a significant upside, certainly from these levels. The fact that their portfolio is very highly rated mortgage paper is the key. Now that the Fed has opened the window to the primaries their $35 billion in mortgage paper is enough to sustain their new financing obligations. They have always used borrowed funds to support operations and the $1.35 billion that marykay uses to support her knee jerk position is not even a fifth of what they routinely borrowed prior to the crisis in mortgage backed securities. Now that they have the operating capital, and their mortgage portfolio has value at the window, they can begin writing new mortgages as their CEO announced they would in weeks if not days.
While I remain wary of overnight holds and am taking reduced size positions due to the vagaries of market sentiment and a general poor investor understanding of the underlying financials, I see a strong management with good capital moving into the high grade mortgage business. I like it as a intraday momentum play and I think a case could be made for holding long stock or options positions in a medium to long term portfolio.
Clearly the downside is the dilution of the common shares resulting in a very high percentage of the company being owned by the bond and preferred holders. They are of course profit minded, and any serious reduction in the stock price cuts into the bottom line, so don't be surprised if you see props in the next couple of years keeping the price up. I'd say at 1.45 it's undervalued, considerably.

[aiki14]

Back in @ 1.33

[aiki14]

out at 1.38

[aiki14]

in at 1.33

[aiki14]

tripled up at 1.30 to avg to 1.31

[aiki14]

Out at 1.30 before the close.

[aiki14]

So as a recap for last week on this. I used a simple stochastic cross for triggering buys and sells. When the %K crossed up I bought and down I sold. I increased my position if the ADX, D+,D- was more favorable.
The specifics were:
Stochastics, %D Slow (dp:5,p5), %K Slow (p:5), on the 3 minute chart.
I was successful 28 of 36 trades. Avg of all 36 trades was +2.7% with a max gain of 8% and a max loss of 2.4% (due to stops at 2%)
The stock traded very high volume all week so I was able to move 10k and 20k share blocks in and out instantly using market orders.

I am backtesting all the trades to see if other indicators would have added or subtracted from my results. I know some of the other folks in the chatroom were trading this, and if they were using other I would appreciate if they would post their triggers.

[Keventerprises]

Wow, Aiki, you are soooooo good. You were able to buy in at exactly the rock bottom price and sell at exactly the top price. How did you hit the top and bottom right on the money. Wow.....you're such a stock guru. I'm sure all of your sheep are sooooo impressed with you, Mr. Sheephearder. Can you walk on water too? turn water into wine? you get my point.

Aiki, you're so full of SH**, anyone can look in the rearview mirror and say anything that "fits the situation at hand."

If you bought into a company, as you allege, that is in the business of lending money, that had to borrow money to save their a$$, at 18%, and in addition offer shares of their company for .01/share, then for once I am at a complete loss of words. By admiting you bought shares of TMA, I think you said enough for the both of us.

MK,
Why don't you stop with your acidic attitude and contribute something constructive instead of attacking others? You only enlist the alienation and hatred of everyone with your incessant denial. It is a small person who needs to attack others, and it is only a counterproductive drain on everyone. If we can take a vote on ostracizing you, you will lose. What does that tell you? Are we all wrong? I'm sorry you have anger, but you would be better off to try to learn and grow out of it rather than perpetuate it forever. Go smash something in the garage.

I'm glad I found this thread, and thank you all for your positive contributions to it. I'm glad to receive information on TMA. Thank you!

[Keventerprises]

So as a recap for last week on this. I used a simple stochastic cross for triggering buys and sells. When the %K crossed up I bought and down I sold. I increased my position if the ADX, D+,D- was more favorable.
The specifics were:
Stochastics, %D Slow (dp:5,p5), %K Slow (p:5), on the 3 minute chart.
I was successful 28 of 36 trades. Avg of all 36 trades was +2.7% with a max gain of 8% and a max loss of 2.4% (due to stops at 2%)
The stock traded very high volume all week so I was able to move 10k and 20k share blocks in and out instantly using market orders.

I am backtesting all the trades to see if other indicators would have added or subtracted from my results. I know some of the other folks in the chatroom were trading this, and if they were using other I would appreciate if they would post their triggers.

Great Job, Aiki! This will be a stretch for me to absorb these indicators, and I hope someday I can implement such techniques! Thank you very much! Your education and help is appreciated!

[MaryKay1965]

MK,
Why don't you stop with your acidic attitude and contribute something constructive instead of attacking others?

Keven, this is an old post from 04-01-08, before Aiki and I settled our differences.

All is good between Aiki and me and I would not post any comments like this now.

This is a post from the "old" MaryKay1965.

[mlegha1]

Almost 3 million shares of TMA were bought in the last 15 mins today very interesting...

[chinaman711]

Matter of time before heavy volume comes back in to TMA and it runs again. Look at all the finl's that are getting loans and with interest rates low and going lower many of these mortgage companys and banks will come back. NOVS another good day up almost 10% and starting to get a little volume. Got them both and looking for a nice gain.

[umair1987]

any senior analyst can tell that how this share ill be looking in couple of weeks, I have been holding it for more than a week. I bought it at 1.34.

Thanks !

[mlegha1]

TMA is going to respond to any news rather than any technical reason.Some one has been buying good amount of shares at the close.I myself got in @1.25 just to see what the whole fuss all about.

[Horsefish]

This company bought a 20.5% stake in TMA. Reported today.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/080410/thornburg_mortgage_shareholder.html?.v=1