VCGH - Invest In Sin - Make Money

[MaryKay1965]

VCGH - A caberat (strip joint) that aquires other similar properties is coming off its' 52 week low today.

Currently trading around $6.00/PPS. IMO, this is a very good entry point.

Continue to follow MaryKay's "diamonds in the rough" to make substantial gains in the market.

I would also like to publicly thank all of the posters that continue to send me PM's of praise. I will continue my mission to stand up to the "know-it-alls" and voice my opinion for the masses that are less vocal in their opinions.

Some good news that was released today for VCGH:
http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080331/20080331006146.html?.v=1

[aiki14]

Down 25% over the last 3 days, trades an avg of 14,640 shares a day. This one seems true to your form.
Lets see what we found out about this one,
From the Dow Jones Newswire today:
VCG Holding Corp. (VCGH) agreed to acquire a premium adult nightclub in the west coast region for $7.3 million in cash.
The Colorado operator of adult entertainment nightclubs said the new club will add 5 cents a share to annual earnings.
The deal is expected close in about 60 days.
-Saba Ali; 201-938-5400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com

Normally when a company purchases another entity it makes the stock of the buyer go down, but this may not be the case here as the VCGH CEO stated that the acquisition will be immediately accretive to 2008 earnings. VCGH is financing the purchase at 3.3 times EBITDA with cash and debt, so it seems a bit unusual for it to be immediately accretive.

Here is a red flag, which an investor would have to evaluate before buying in. Always a bit weird when companies don't report earnings on time. Also from the Dow Jones Newswire today:

VCG Holding Corp. (VCGH) will seek an extension to file its fourth-quarter and full-year 2007 financial statements, after needing more time to reconcile deferred tax liability and assets for the periods.
Accordingly, the Lakewood, Colo., nightclub operator filed a Form 12B-25 with the Securities and Exchange Commission, which allows for an extension.
The company said it would notify investors about one day before issuing financial statements and the time of the quarterly conference call.
-Adam Edelman; 201-938-5400; AskNewswires@dowjones.com

The CEO did make a statement about this during the call this morning:
"I would like to stress that this delay has nothing to do with any errors in accounting and we believe that we will exceed our 2007 earnings guidance of $0.43 per diluted share."

Of note is the 2 analysts that follow the stock have estimates of $0.49 per diluted share.

The question I have is not why the stock is down 25% over the last three days, but why its down more than 15% today, more than half of that after the "Good News" that the OP has posted. And on a day when the market is up. Maybe the OP would care to say why she only posted the stuff that supports her position after excoriating me for what she erroneously thought was just that. Here is what she said:
Apparently, Aiki, you're not doing your homework. Stop posting only the side of this buyout that benefits you, and start posting all of the info or don't post any at all.
Seems living up to this standard is only good for others. Now get ready for her to tell you about what a bad guy I am, but ignore the valid points I have made.

[aiki14]

And of course it's Cabaret. You would think with her avatar she would know how to spell that one.

[aiki14]

Ratings of note, I could only find these, low capitalization stocks normally do not have many analysts:
Reuters 3/27/2008: Outperform
2976
JayWalk Consensus 3/31/2008: Buy
2977

Just so you know Outperform and Buy are good ratings.

[john_for_u80]

And of course it's Cabaret. You would think with her avatar she would know how to spell that one.

:biggrin:

[Hondaboy]

OMG.... These are the guys that own Platinum Plus in Hialeah, They took over that god awful strip club Treasure island. I remember going to that club for my friends 21st birthday party. Never thought the day would come when I will fall asleep in a strip club. Not really into strip clubs or adult clubs or whatever you want to call it but the place looks ok when I see it from the highway when I drive to Maimi sometimes.

[aiki14]

In my first post I left a zero off the avg volume its 140k not 14k. Thanks Hondaboy for pointing that out.

[MaryKay1965]

OMG.... These are the guys that own Platinum Plus in Hialeah, They took over that god awful strip club Treasure island. I remember going to that club for my friends 21st birthday party. Never thought the day would come when I will fall asleep in a strip club. Not really into strip clubs or adult clubs or whatever you want to call it but the place looks ok when I see it from the highway when I drive to Maimi sometimes.

Yes, that is their MO. They buy underperforming or distressed adult nightclubs for a fraction of their cost.

Perform upgrades - Building and Dancers, I'm sure - Make money.

Excellent time to buy now. Went from low of $6.00/share to $6.16/share in aftermarket trading.

Remember MaryKay's adVICE. The following stocks make money in good times or bad.

Gambling
Alcohol/Beer
Sex
Cigarettes

[MaryKay1965]

VCGH is having a nice rally today.

Up approx. 7%, so far, and still heading north.

[ChartShark]

Damnit I missed the pump. Maybe if we keep trying, it'll go back up and I can finally upgrade to that double-wide I've had my eye on.

[MaryKay1965]

Damnit I missed the pump. Maybe if we keep trying, it'll go back up and I can finally upgrade to that double-wide I've had my eye on.

Follow me to the bank and we can laugh together.

VCGH is the play for the day.

[ChartShark]

I don't trade low volume stocks, so I am not sure if my usual technical analysis holds true for such stocks, but...

On a 30 minute chart there's an obvious double bottom. Without getting super technical (or even elementarily technical), I can see a couple of indications that this could run depending on what happens tomorrow. Given the conditions of the set-up, $6.65ish would be my entry and my target would be the in the $7.25-7.30 range. This would be my target based solely on the set-up, but it also nicely coincides with the bottom side of some mid-march consolidation.

I'm looking at the 30 minute chart because anything less is unreadable to me because of the low volume, and anything greater paints a much less rosey picture.

As I said, I don't trade these low volume stocks. So I am curious; what were the conditions for your entry on this trade? What is your target? Was this stock pick based solely on deep fundamental research that I am unaware of? I must admit, I am very weak on fundamental analysis. I am trying to get better though, so help me out here.

Good luck to you and anyone else who's in on this one. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

[MaryKay1965]

I don't trade low volume stocks, so I am not sure if my usual technical analysis holds true for such stocks, but...

On a 30 minute chart there's an obvious double bottom. Without getting super technical (or even elementarily technical), I can see a couple of indications that this could run depending on what happens tomorrow. Given the conditions of the set-up, $6.65ish would be my entry and my target would be the in the $7.25-7.30 range. This would be my target based solely on the set-up, but it also nicely coincides with the bottom side of some mid-march consolidation.

I'm looking at the 30 minute chart because anything less is unreadable to me because of the low volume, and anything greater paints a much less rosey picture.

As I said, I don't trade these low volume stocks. So I am curious; what were the conditions for your entry on this trade? What is your target? Was this stock pick based solely on deep fundamental research that I am unaware of? I must admit, I am very weak on fundamental analysis. I am trying to get better though, so help me out here.

Good luck to you and anyone else who's in on this one. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

I would tell you how I screened for this, but since you made that comment about "the house on wheels" and I happen to be from the South.....you know, trailer parks and all that, I just don't think I can help you on this one.

[ChartShark]

Hey, sometimes they put them on concrete blocks remove the wheels and throw some fancy plastic molding around the bottom to make them look pretty.

I know from experience. They have trailer parks in the north also.

[ChartShark]

I can't even pretend this stock looks good in any chart at this point. There is no technical indicator that could make this stock appealing. It has set a new 52 week low, and closed around 20% down from your call to buy this stock. In afterhours it has traded as low as 4.07, and as of right now, last traded at 4.50.

I may not know fundamentals, but at the most basic level - who goes to strip clubs anymore? That's what internet porn is for.

I will avoid the ad hominem attacks that you are used to, and just say that this may be the absolute worst stock pick I have ever seen. I feel sorry for anyone who bought into this one.

I am still waiting to hear your reasoning behind this pick, especially since you blast other people for not providing theirs. What was (is) your target? Have you gotten stopped out yet, or did you try to average down in the hopes of salvaging something out of this train wreck?

These are obviously rhetorical questions, since there are probably no answers for them.

[freakscene]

- who goes to strip clubs anymore? That's what internet porn is for.

.


:biggrin:

[aiki14]

I can't even pretend this stock looks good in any chart at this point. There is no technical indicator that could make this stock appealing. It has set a new 52 week low, and closed around 20% down from your call to buy this stock. In afterhours it has traded as low as 4.07, and as of right now, last traded at 4.50.

I may not know fundamentals, but at the most basic level - who goes to strip clubs anymore? That's what internet porn is for.

I will avoid the ad hominem attacks that you are used to, and just say that this may be the absolute worst stock pick I have ever seen. I feel sorry for anyone who bought into this one.

I am still waiting to hear your reasoning behind this pick, especially since you blast other people for not providing theirs. What was (is) your target? Have you gotten stopped out yet, or did you try to average down in the hopes of salvaging something out of this train wreck?

These are obviously rhetorical questions, since there are probably no answers for them.

I saw this tanking mid day and looked for news or anything else that would explain what happened. Nothing, on the News wires or the company website. At 3:45 they announced the CFO was "no longer with the company" and they were "engaging financial consultants to assist in its accounting". Coming on the heals of the announcement they wouldn't file financials on time this is ominous indeed.
Clearly insiders were dumping shares before the announcement and that triggered the dive. I guess the sin business attracts sinners, because these guys dumping their shares on the market today is a sin.
I would be very careful trying averaging down strategies, or anything other than bailing or holding, because the facts are not out yet. This guy could be a simple incompetent or a tremendous embezzler, and until the facts are out it should be considered radioactive.

[Hondaboy]

So much for going to the strip club!!!

[MaryKay1965]

I can't even pretend this stock looks good in any chart at this point. There is no technical indicator that could make this stock appealing. It has set a new 52 week low, and closed around 20% down from your call to buy this stock. In afterhours it has traded as low as 4.07, and as of right now, last traded at 4.50.

I may not know fundamentals, but at the most basic level - who goes to strip clubs anymore? That's what internet porn is for.

I will avoid the ad hominem attacks that you are used to, and just say that this may be the absolute worst stock pick I have ever seen. I feel sorry for anyone who bought into this one.

I am still waiting to hear your reasoning behind this pick, especially since you blast other people for not providing theirs. What was (is) your target? Have you gotten stopped out yet, or did you try to average down in the hopes of salvaging something out of this train wreck?

These are obviously rhetorical questions, since there are probably no answers for them.

DD, When I purchased VCGH, I thought it was the right play. This was a stock that was coming off a 52 wk low and the only reason I could find for this dip in the last couple of days (before purchase) was the late filings with the SEC. I honestly saw this as a buying opportunity. I have been in and out of another similar stock, RICK, for about 6-8 months now, and that thing has just whipsawed back and forth for several trades of 8-10% each time. I was really looking for VCGH to be more of a long term hold.

IMO, strip clubs are usually a cash cow. Between the price of admission, alcoholic drinks, food, and of course the "entertainment", I saw this type of investment as a good one. The price took a huge nosedive today and other than Aiki's assessment of losing their CFO and the news that they may not aquire the Jaguar nightclub in Texas, I can't find any "real" disturbing news to constitute the sharp decline in the stock price today.

http://biz.yahoo.com/e/080402/vcgh8-k.html

You're right, the stock price dropped tremendously in the after-market trading and finally made its' way back to $5.10/share (which by the way is actually higher that the 4:00 closing price of $4.92/share.)

As far as my postion, I'm still in. I had a sell order for the stock that never got triggered and was away alot of this afternoon. I had no reason to think I should have a stop limit order in place, since I obviously didn't think the stock was going South. My online brokerage, Zecco.com, does not offer bracketed orders, so I would either have to set a sell above or below the current price, but not both, so I guess that would not have been an option for me either.

I really hate to exit this trade, just because that's what the herd is doing. I'm not really sure what my next move should be. :|

[ChartShark]

Here's some information regarding the short interest on this stock that I got from shortsqueeze.com...

VCG Holding Corp. $ 4.92
VCGH -1.63
Short Interest (Shares Short) 3,167,600
Days To Cover (Short Interest Ratio) 15.7
Short Percent of Float 55.18 %
Short Interest - Prior 3,154,600
Short % Increase / Decrease 0.41 %
Record Date 2008-MarB


With so much short interest, it was basically suicide to get in on this stock in the first place. On the bright side, it's up this morning, and there seems to be some good news regarding their earnings. If the earnings are better than expected, as it is being said that they may be, then this stock could pop, and you might get a real nice short squeeze out of it. On the other hand it could pop a little, give the shorts more reason to short it further, and they could drive the stock right into the ground. On the third hand (like the cab driver in Total Recall) earnings won't affect the stock price very much, and shorts will continue to drive this one down. It'd take balls of steel to stay in on this one, but if you're still in, good luck.

[MaryKay1965]

VCGH has a new CFO. The stock made a small comeback earlier today, but as of now, it has just about given it all back.

New CFO article: http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080403/20080403005282.html?.v=1

[cramerica1972]

Damnit I missed the pump. Maybe if we keep trying, it'll go back up and I can finally upgrade to that double-wide I've had my eye on.call pac-man jones,get him to make it rain at all the clubs.:p

[Hondaboy]

call pac-man jones,get him to make it rain at all the clubs.:p

Man thats like the new thing down here. Everyone talking about going to the club making it rain.

For those that don't know what "Make it rain" means. It's you take a ton of cash and make if fly in the air as if the money was raining. This is a great way to get money off the floor and take it and invest it.

[MaryKay1965]

VCGH is making a slight comeback. Can't find any more news- good or bad. Maybe the buyers are coming back in. Took a chance and averaged down once. Just about at break even. :proud:

[aiki14]

VCGH is making a slight comeback. Can't find any more news- good or bad. Maybe the buyers are coming back in. Took a chance and averaged down once. Just about at break even. :proud:

I like your chances from here. The interim CFO was the CFO not that long ago and is completely familiar with the company, and the guy that resigned (?) is assisting with the filing. If they actually beat estimates you should see a pretty serious retracement. If not they may stay near this level. From here your risk reward seems favorable to me.

[ChartShark]

From Briefing.com...

15:41 - Stocks over $5 posting the largest percentage loss over the last five sessions include: VCGH -27%, OFIX -24%, FRP -22%, LOJN -18%, IUSA -18%, RVBD -18%, SGP -17%, DMAN -16%, SLRY -16%, FXP -15%, PAY -15%, CHRD -15%, FED -14%, XRIT -14%, SGP-B -13%, SKF -13%, TSFG -13%, SMN -13%, AZZ -13%, SRS -13%, RICK -12%

"It can't possibly go any lower!" - famous last words

This one is still stuck in a long-term downtrend.

However, on the sunny side of things,

3008

This 60 minute chart shows several bullish indicators. The MA(5) has crossed above the MA(10), the RSI(14) is above 50, and there's an occurance of Bullish Oscillator Divergence (which, in a downtrend, can signal a possible reversal), all labeled on the chart. These are all good signs, especially if the earnings news is positive. Maybe someday they'll let us know what's going on. Hope this one pays off for you. Good luck.

On a side note, I need to figure out how to make my charts more clear, and pretty. Sorry about the fuzziness.

[MaryKay1965]

Finally.......Maybe this stock will move North now........

Form 8-K http://biz.yahoo.com/e/080409/vcgh8-k.html

[MaryKay1965]

-- Revenues Increased 3.1 Times to $13.7 Million for the 2007 Fourth Quarter and 2.5 Times to $40.5 Million for 2007
-- Income from Continuing Operations Grew 10 Times to $1.2 Million for the 2007 Fourth Quarter and More Than 4 Times to $7.8 Million for 2007
-- Company Reports Fourth Quarter Net Income Applicable to Common Shareholders Compared with a Year Ago Loss as Net Income Grew 26 Times to $6.3 Million for 2007

http://biz.yahoo.com/bw/080414/20080414006488.html?.v=1

This is the latest headlines for the news released today [Mon. 04-14-08] around 5:45 P.M. EST. Hopefully, this will get the buyers back in.

[MaryKay1965]

VCGH has been having a nice rally today.....up so far approx. 17%.

I actually purchased more shares yesterday at $3.68/PPS in an attempt to average down, then sold that lot today for $4.07/PPS for a nice little 10.6% gain. Of course, the PPS went to $4.30 less than an hour later, but who hasn't that to happen to them? Original purchase lot is still in the red, (Break Even: $4.51/PPS) but I have confidence in this type of defensive stock.

Oh well, this may be a good channelling stock till this thing settles down again. Hopefully I can make the same play above a few more times. Buy the dips and sell the highs.

[MaryKay1965]

VCGH had another nice rally today, also.

AfterMarket Trading carried the price to $4.75/PPS for a 12% gain. Feels great to be back in the green instead of the red.

[cramerica1972]

VCGH had another nice rally today, also.

AfterMarket Trading carried the price to $4.75/PPS for a 12% gain. Feels great to be back in the green instead of the red.invest in women taking their clothes off?LMAO,what's next?invest in ppl driving a car down the street?

[MaryKay1965]

what's next?invest in ppl driving a car down the street?

Yea.......they would be called oil/gas stocks.