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[chinaman711]

Silver Shortage: 19 dealers reported "Sold Out"

By: Jason Hommel, Silver Stock Report



-- Posted 20 March, 2008 | Digg This Article | Discuss This Article - Comments: 3




(SOLD OUT!!)
Silver Stock Report
You know me, I don't send out two emails in one day, so this must be important. Since my email earlier tonight, where I reported that 5-6 major silver dealers (Amark, Tulving, 2 in Vancouver, my local dealer, NWT Mint) are "out of inventory", 13 more reports came in, saying that the dealers were out of silver inventory. Some of these names are big names in the business, Scotia bank, the Perth Mint in Australia, CNI Numismatics in LA, APMEX says they have some items, but are looking to buy.

If there are any coin dealers or bullion shops that have an inventory, in stock, of more than 100, 100 oz. bars, let me know, and I'll give you FREE Advertising within 24 hours in my next newsletter.

Robert Mish reports that he has 100 x 100 oz. bars still, but he had 250 bars last week.
Mish International
Menlo Park
650-324-9110

Now think: How can the silver price drop by nearly $2/oz., when all these reports come in saying that the dealers are sold out, or nearly out, of physical silver? This is the clearest evidence of paper short selling manipulation that I've ever seen since I started watching the silver market back in 1999, and I've seen a lot of evidence!

Unfortunately, the COT reports only report through Tuesday. This Wednesday's action will not be revealed in the COT's until next Friday.

The public switched and turned buyers after gold hit $1000/oz. The coin shops normally sell to the refineries, and this creates a large part of the ~250 million oz. of silver recycling each year that meets the deficit between ~650 million oz. mine supply, and ~1000 million oz. demanded by inventory.

But now, this flow of silver just reversed. And if the refineries are not getting silver from the coin shops, industry will get squeezed, hard, and so will the major short sellers on the COMEX.

This is crunch time. Panic time.

The unedited reports follow (Names removed for privacy.)

===============

Coin shop report from St. Louis, MO. I shop at Missouri Coin and have purchased bulk 10oz bars (20 at a time) on several occasions. I went shopping yesterday and they only had 9 10oz bars available and the owner commented that he cannot find more anywhere. He was out of 10oz bars when I left...

I ended up picking up a bag of quarters as well since they didn't have the bar stock I was looking for.

A crunch is on.

J in St. Louis
=============

From: Ainslie Bullion Coy [mailto:info@ainsliebullion.com.au]
Sent: Thursday, 20 March 2008 10:53 AM
To: 'Linda Wagner'
Subject: RE: price

Sorry, I can’t quote silver until the middle of next month.

The supplier won’t quote until then

Kind regards

Geoff


Ainslie Bullion Company
GPO Box 1870
Brisbane Qld 4001
Tel: +61 7 3221 0500
Fax: +61 7 3229 1895

=============

Jason,

My coin dealer is in Bakersfield CA. Mike's Coin and Stamp. My wife and I went in on monday and bought 4 100 oz. bars. Said he had a good supply of those. I also wanted some smaller bars and I wiped him out. Only 160 oz total. He says he can't keep them in stock very long before someone comes in and empties his supply. He's having a hard time getting replacements. He's the largest dealer in the area and very trustworthy. We also bought gold. At least some people seem to be taking serious what's going on.



H

=============

HI Jason:

CNI near the L.A. airport at www.golddealer.com is the dealer I have used....They were out of silver today also...

E

(CNI is a major dealer --Jason)

=============

Jason,

Just placed another order with Perth Mint, they are out of stock on everything, however there waiting period is no longer 6 months (Im guessing they received alot of complaints) its now 6-8 weeks.

Just got off the phone with them, they have no bullion in stock, its all on backorder, the official excuse is that it takes along time to make the bars and everyone wants them, could be viiewed as a good thing knowing demand is high, but I personaly dont like waiting 6-8 weeks for delivery.

I contacted several other dealers in Sydney, only 1 out of 5 has stock...... Everyone has back orders with PM which is the distributor.

Regards,
S

=============
APMEX reports, at apmex.com

Due to the OVERWHELMING demand for precious metals, our online ordering system has been unable to keep up with our customers’ needs. We have had to disable the APMEX ordering system to allow us ample time to upgrade our site to accommodate the increased demand. We apologize for this temporary problem.
. . .

P.S. We are actively looking for new bullion inventory to purchase. If you have items that total $2,500 or more and are interested in selling, please call our trading offices at the number listed above. We are paying strong numbers for ALL Precious Metals!

=============

I want to tell you that your site is very helpfull and,i believe what you are doing,nice job in telling people about GOD money.I am a very smol investor, and i have in my posesion until now around 2000 ounces of silver bars,10 ounces and 50 ounces bars.Tuesday the 18. at scotia bank they did not have enouf silver.I wanted to buy but the vault was empty,they had only coins.And today is 19...19..This evil people work with numbers.They have dates for everything.19 is an important number for the ocult.All the best.GOD bless you and your family.

=============

Hello,
This past Monday I wired funds to purchase eleven 1,000 oz bullion bars from my dealer who I have purchased & sold sizable silver orders several times before. He called Monday afternoon and stated that none of his suppliers had any 1,000 ounce bars available, but not to worry, the next day they would probably have eleven bars to fill my order.

Tuesday, he called again, stating still none had bullion except one person had some, but he would only sell them at a ten cent premium over the dealer stated price or $1,100 more. I am a long term holder so I bought them just to have the silver in my depository possession.

By the way, my dealer is a high quality company and individual and he also stated he was flat covered over all day with transactions with people like myself buying silver. I also wonder with this condition, why the silver went down, and can't help to think about Ted Butlers assertion.

Cheers
FH

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Ordered 100 oz. from them early Jan. due to deliver this Friday. Way too long. My dealer in Arlington Texas is almost out of silver. Probably only has about 1000 oz. left. I will be taking some of that off his hands tomorrow.
Love your reports!
Have a great day
B

=============

mEDFORD ORE WAS OUT HAD A LINE WANTING TO PURCHASE

=============

Mr. Hommel,

I live in a small town of 16,000 In S. Illinois. I stopped by my local coin shop to pick up some Silver Eagles, and the cases were empty, except for numismatic value coins. He stated he had sold over 600+ Eagles in the last week and was waiting to receive more. I thought that to be a good indicator for the future direction of Silver. I also want to tip my hat to James Rawles for pointing me in your direction. Your e-mails are part of my recommended reading to my friends.

Thank you, RG


"Those who would give up essential Liberty, to purchase a little temporary Safety, deserve neither Liberty nor Safety." Benjamin Franklin

=============

Jason,
I called the most consistent coin dealer in Memphis Monday. I like junk silver.
I could not buy a bag at any price. I was offered 5 100 once bars, period.
He stated that he hates ordering bags as the cost leaves him with indigestion.
Usually he is buying junk on a regular basis. At this time there seems to be
NO SELLERS.
Your old homie now in the Ozarks,
goatman

=============

Locally the dealers I've done business with are always in chronic tight supply and several of them recently couldn't fill a tiny $1,000 deal, let alone what I wanted to buy. I have bought hundreds of times but never more than 7461 ounces at a time. Got it from Bill Haynes in Phoenix. I was buying 90% when it was at 3.24x face and know it's still badly undervalued. I almost felt bad when a lady came in with bags of Franklins and she heard me tell the dealer I wanted them, her heart sunk, but it wasn't me that made her sell the gem BU coins. That's how quick the turnaround is. When investors go on waiting lists for hard metal, I believe it will cause the mining shares to finally zoom. We have several stupid billionaires in Dallas-Fort Worth and I wish they'd try to take a big position---it would benefit me!

--CS

=============

Again, to get silver, make sure you go local, take cash, and get the actual bars, if they have any! At this point, it matters little which product, just get any silver that they have that is somewhat close to the spot price, rounds, bars, odd weight bars, anything.

http://find-your-local-coin-shop.com/

It was for the inevitable time like this that I diligently complied the names of people in the industry who have 100,000 oz. of silver. I have 5 names on my list, but one of those 5, CNI, is now reported to be out. I don't know about the other 4; I've heard no reports about them. See the list of large dealers at http://find-your-local-coin-shop.com/

Sincerely,

Jason Hommel
www.silverstockreport.com
www.miningpedia.com


-- Posted 20 March, 2008 | Digg This Article | Discuss This Article - Comments: 3



Last Three Articles by Jason Hommel, Silver Stock Report




Silver Market Structure: Shortages And Sources
25 March, 2008

Silver Shortage gets Worse, Price Drops Again!
21 March, 2008

Silver Shortage: 19 dealers reported "Sold Out"
20 March, 2008

Silver Stock Report - Archive List

[chinaman711]

Shortages can make people crazy!)
Silver Stock Report
by Jason Hommel, March 25, 2008
My recent reports on the Silver Shortages at Coin Shops and major dealers have been popular, and widely re-posted. Misunderstandings and questions are more abundant than my ability to answer them all individually; but most could be answered if only people and coin shop owners only understood the basic market structure of silver, and did a little bit of thinking for about 5 minutes, and then a bit of math on the numbers, so let's start with the numbers, as reported by the CPM Group and Silverinstitute. New reports for 2007 are expected this Spring, and I'd be surprised to see any category change by more than 5%, except maybe investor buying, which might be up. For 2008 reports, we'll have to wait a year. I tend to average the figures from both groups, and then average again to the nearest 50 million oz. or 5%.

So, for 2006:
On the supply side, there is 900 million ounces:
About 650 million ounces of silver is mined each year, and growing slightly.
About 200 million ounces of silver is recycled each year.
About 50 million ounces of silver is sold by governments each year, and declining.

On the demand side, of the 900 million ounces:
About 45% is consumed in industry including mostly electronics, and growing slightly.
About 35% is consumed in jewelry and flatware.
About 15% is consumed in photography, and declining slightly.
About 5% is purchased by investors in the form of bars and coins, and growing slightly.

Investor buying is the hardest category to track, and is generally assumed as either "implied net investment or net divestment" to make the total numbers match on both the supply and demand side. The major change 2 years ago was a switch from "implied net divestment" to "implied net investment".

More silver than the "net" is traded between investors, during a year, perhaps another several hundred million ounces, it's hard to say. The investment numbers are simply "net" figures, that factor in that there must be more total investor buying or more total investor selling, and by how much.

The numbers are from surveys, and are rough estimates, and nobody fully agrees 100%, but the numbers from those top two surveys are very close, and I don't have enough knowledge or reason to dispute them. They make sense with what I know and see and hear in the real world, and they can explain a lot about the silver market, especially the great investment opportunity that exists.

In the entire history of the world, about 45 billion ounces of silver have been mined. Of that, nearly all of it, probably between 90-95% has been consumed, and ended up in landfills, as the silver has been changed into forms that are less economic to recover than new mining. So there might be about 5 billion ounces of silver remaining in the world that has been mined, and still exists, held by people in the form of bars & coins, jewelry & flatware, and scrap.

While known silver reserves in the ground are at about 14 years, more silver will be found and mined for the next 5000+ years or more, like always. (This proves that peak oil is bunk. All mines, like oilfields, are depleting assets, but the earth is a very big place.)

Very little silver is at the 4 NYMEX approved warehouses, only about 140 million oz.
Very little silver backs up the silver ETF, SLV, about 179 million oz.
Very little silver is purchased by investors each year, about 50 million oz.

The U.S. Mint makes about 10 million ounces of silver Eagles each year.

Silver Eagles thus represent about 1/100th of the annual silver market. The current Shortage of Silver Eagles is not technically a shortage of silver, you see. Ted Butler, who writes for Investment Rarities, suggests that their endorsement of Eagles has helped to cause a run on them, and I believe it.

I would personally estimate that about half of silver recycling, about 100 million ounces, moves through coin shops and has to be sold to larger dealers and refiners. More silver than that moves through U.S. coin shops back to the public, however, in addition to the "net" flows, but the "net" flows explain a lot.

1. It explains why most coin shops don't feel there is a shortage of silver, and don't feel the need to carry silver inventory.

2. It explains how and why coin shops can run out of silver so quickly.

3. It explains why coin shops cannot say when they will get more silver, since their source of silver is the public (they don't order much from refiners, they sell to refiners).

Let's assume that U.S. coin shops are 50% of the world market in silver. So, they buy about 50 million oz. of silver more than they can sell to the public. There are about 4000 coin shops tracked by http://coininfo.com/ which I advertise to help you find your local coin shop.

If we divide 50 million oz. of silver by the 4000 shops, that comes to 12,500 oz. per shop, on average that they have to buy, more than they can sell, in a year. Times $20/oz., that's $250,000 more silver per shop, per year, than they can sell to the public (usually, but not this week!).

[MyRightEye]

I have been actively selling my stocks on highs and buying silver.

I buy from this guy: AJPM.com

He has a weird way of doing business, but everything always works out.

Bought a lot on Monday at the biggest part of the dip. Very happy today!! Buy silver!!

[chinaman711]

CDE moving today on heavy volume.

[chinaman711]

Coeur d'Alene Mines Corporation Q4 2007 Earnings Call Transcript
Page 1 out of 10|posted on: March 03, 2008 | about stocks: CDE Single Page ViewFont Size: PrintEmail Coeur d'Alene Mines Corporation (CDE)

Q4 2007 Earnings Call

February 29, 2008 1:00 pm ET

Executives

Dennis Wheeler, Chairman, President, and CEO

Jim Sabala, EVP and CFO

Don Birak, SVP, Exploration,

Richard Weston - SVP, Operations

Tony Ebersole - Director of IR

Analysts

John Bridges - JPMorgan

Michael Dudas - Bear Stearns

Mike Curran - RBC

Pierre Vaillancourt - Orion Securities Inc.

Presentation

Operator

At this time, I would like to welcome everyone to the fourth quarter and 2007 results conference call. All lines have been placed on mute to prevent any background noise. After the speakers' remarks, there will be a question-and-answer session. (Operator Instructions) I would now like to turn today's call over to Mr. Tony Ebersole, Director of Investor Relations. You may begin your conference.

Tony Ebersole

Thank you, Darlene and good day, everyone. This is Tony Ebersole, Director of Investor Relations for Coeur. Thank you for joining us today in today's call to discuss the company's results for the fourth quarter and 2007.

In accordance with our standard practice, this call is also being broadcast live on the Internet through our website, www.coeur.com, where we have also posted the slides for the company our prepared remarks. A telephonic replay of the call will be available for one week afterward on our website.

Today's presenters include Dennis Wheeler, Chairman, President, and Chief Executive Officer; Jim Sabala, Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer, Don Birak, Senior Vice President, Exploration, Richard Weston, Senior Vice President, Operations.

Any forward-looking statements made today by management come under securities legislation in the United States, Canada and Australia and involve a number of risks that could cause actual results to differ from projections.

With that, I would like to turn the call over to Dennis.

Dennis Wheeler

Thanks Tony and welcome to everyone. It's particularly gratifying to us to be on this call today, highlighting Couer's progress in the fourth quarter and for the year 2007, as the company is coming off one of its most significant and defining years in its eighty-year history. We completed the largest transaction in the history of the silver industry at the end of the December with the acquisition of Bolnisi Gold and Palmarejo Silver and Gold, bringing to the company the exciting Palmarejo Silver and Gold project in Northern Mexico, one of the newest, largest and highest grade silver gold projects in the world, where our team, is well under way.

Combined with our San Bartolome pure silver line in Bolivia, which is already started its pre-commissioning and it is nearing production, Couer is beginning to deliver on its dynamic growth profile in silver production, accelerating in 2008 and heading towards a near tripling of our silver production in 2009 with expected substantial reductions in our companywide cash cost.

We produced 11.5 million ounces of silver and 92,000 ounces of gold in 2007. We are looking this year to increase silver production by as much as 40% over last year with the addition of a partial year of San Bartolome production. Cash cost for the year were under $4 an ounce of silver, providing a healthy margin at current prices.

In 2007, Coeur’s total silver reserves and resources with our fine exploration group increased by 40% from the previous year to 530 million ounces today, and our total gold reserves and resources increased 60% from 2006 levels to 4.6 million ounces. We are nearing competition of the first feasibility study of Palmarejo with construction accelerating this year towards startup in the first half of 2009.

We also completed construction of the new mill at Martha in Argentina in 2007. The decision to construct a standalone mill at Martha was made after we continued to increase the mines reserves and resources through our mine exploration efforts. We expect to continue to add Martha’s mine life with our team there, through additional increases in reserves and resources going forward.