Web-based historical backtesting

[ssanders82]

Hi, I've just created http://www.Inspectd.com, which shows you a random 6-month historical stock chart, then asks you to make a buy/sell decision. It then immediately shows you what the stock did in the next 30 days and tracks your "profit" (you start with a $100,000 paper account). I think it's extremely valuable to teach yourself how stocks act (since it's real data), and it's cool because I haven't seen anything like it before.

I'm an experienced programmer and intermediate trader, and I'd like to expand the site to include historical back-testing of custom-programmable strategies, as well as day-by-day tutoring (it would show you a historical chart and move forward one day at a time asking you if you want to close the trade). I think this would be an awesome teacher.

I'd love your comments on my site, as well as any features that you'd like me to add. Thanks!

[Thierry Martin]

Hi, I've just created http://www.Inspectd.com, which shows you a random 6-month historical stock chart, then asks you to make a buy/sell decision. It then immediately shows you what the stock did in the next 30 days and tracks your "profit" (you start with a $100,000 paper account). I think it's extremely valuable to teach yourself how stocks act (since it's real data), and it's cool because I haven't seen anything like it before.

I'm an experienced programmer and intermediate trader, and I'd like to expand the site to include historical back-testing of custom-programmable strategies, as well as day-by-day tutoring (it would show you a historical chart and move forward one day at a time asking you if you want to close the trade). I think this would be an awesome teacher.

I'd love your comments on my site, as well as any features that you'd like me to add. Thanks!

Before the above poster gets a barrage of spam accusations, I want to point out that all first posts go into a moderation queue - that's why you see so little spam on this site. On top of that, we delete 99% of first posts that are just promos for some new site or blog. However, since the moderators or I actually do check out every link (unless it is obvious junk like "iPhones for $19.99") we sometimes run into something fun or cool or great.

Well, the site being promoted in the post above is fun, cool and great. Check it out yourself, I am having trouble getting any work done because I keep playing around on it.

[mlegha1]

It is addictive ....

[Thierry Martin]

Hey, I doubled my money in just about fifteen trades or so. (I wasn't counting.)

2869 (http://www.Inspectd.com)

[freakscene]

this is addicting.

thanks for posting it.

[freakscene]

Hey, I doubled my money in just about fifteen trades or so. (I wasn't counting.)




i lost mine in a whopping 59% crushing blow only to realize there is no way to start over. you have to earn it back.


40 minutes later, and learning the 'skip' button is my friend, im back to 95,000

playing the bounces off the 50 works most of the time

[Gordo]

So....is day trading really this easy? Just look at the curve and try to predict its end?

Yes. That site is cool.8)

[Hondaboy]

So....is day trading really this easy? Just look at the curve and try to predict its end?

To me its just flat out fun but plz note that they are rules when you day trade.


And this program is pretty nice hehe.

[freakscene]

and theyre really open to suggestions and making changes quickly.

you can now reset back to 100,000

post ideas on their forum. this could be really valuable

[Hirsch]

Wow, this has great potential. With the new suggestions it's still easy to pick up and addictive, most likely even to someone with no real idea of how to trade.
Kids would love this kind of thing, if only we could introduce them to it so they'd be interested. (Not suggesting that it should be marketed though, hell no, I like it as is. Just making public my silly ideas.)
Too bad it'll gear people to day-trading....but being a value/fundamentalist just makes me like that. 8)
Hopefully they'll make RSI, MACD, etc, applications as well.

[mlegha1]

If we have a choice to change the chart to candlesticks that will make decision making a bit easier.

[ssanders82]

Hi, I'm the OP and creator of http://www.Inspectd.com. Response has been *hugely* positive so far, and I've been getting a lot of good feedback and feature suggestions. I've made a few changes since version 1, including changing position size and trade length (1 day to 2 months), and allowing you to create a user account so your account value will persist. Adding more indicators, candlesticks, and a market comparision chart is next on the list.

I'm also working on adding a day-by-day simulation, where you open a trade, then move forward one day at a time until you want to close the position. I think this is what more advanced traders are looking for, as it accurately reflects actual decision-making.

Thanks so much for everyone's comments. Tell your friends!

[Rambis]

cool man Ive been wanting something like this...also to just do one stock over say the last 50 years certain periods at a time so that you can learn the "history" of any instrument in a short amount of time.

[EDawg118522]

Ok so Im just experimenting with different things on that addictive site and Ive made one interesting observation. I start with $ 100,000 and I bet 50% on each stock. I buy every stock reguardless of how the chart looks and then reset every time it goes above 100,000 and record my profits. I have yet to get down to zero without rallying to above 100,000 and my combined profits are over 1 mil. I know I must have hit some statistical anomaly or perhaps the program is designed to give a winner more often on the reset, but is there anything I can infer based on my observations.

[aiki14]

Ok so Im just experimenting with different things on that addictive site and Ive made one interesting observation. I start with $ 100,000 and I bet 50% on each stock. I buy every stock reguardless of how the chart looks and then reset every time it goes above 100,000 and record my profits. I have yet to get down to zero without rallying to above 100,000 and my combined profits are over 1 mil. I know I must have hit some statistical anomaly or perhaps the program is designed to give a winner more often on the reset, but is there anything I can infer based on my observations.

It seems to represent a statistically anomalous set of outcomes, which are unlikely to be reproduced in the real world. I would ask the OP to examine how the program generates the "random" stock pick.

[ssanders82]

Hi aiki, OP here, interesting observation. The site has a database of about 8000 stocks from AMEX, NASDAQ, and NYSE, of which I select one at random. Then I generate a random date from 1987 to 2007 (or as far back as I have data for that stock) and create the chart based on that start date, going forward 6 months.

I think there's a significant long-bias inherent in the data, because for each one-month trade you should average about 1% gain, even if you're doing no better than what the overall market did in the past. After a large amount of trades with +1% expectation, the chances of an overall net loss are pretty small. So your goal should be to beat 1% per-trade! (or you can change the trade length.)

I think I've done everything I can to make it as historically accurate as possible. (One poster on another forum even speculated that the data wasn't real and I was trying to trick everyone with random charts!) Any suggestions on changing the process are of course welcome.

[Hondaboy]

This site will rule if you had a honda car on it. But awesome JOB!

[netwrangler]

This is great stuff.
The most important lesson that I see is learning when to 'skip' because the chart is not indicating either buy or sell.

I think I'd like to see the results forward for more than the trading period I selected.
It would also be more realistic if we could specify stop-loss -- especially at the longer trade intervals.

That said, this is a great tool for the aspiring chartist!
And, yes, it is addictive.

[dochesgriff]

I love the site and have been playing with it all day, but I don't think I understand how to see exactly where I am buying. I am using the candlesticks and a short term trade 2-5 days. Many times on the chart it looks like I made big money, but instead it says I was wrong, then I look at the entry point and see that it does not match the chart. Why is that?

example: Chart stops with stock at 4.85 roughly. I pick buy for 2 days and the chart appears to tick up to 5.10. But then I have a down % and the reading is an entry point or actually 5.13, but looking at the chart the stock has not been at that level for several days. What gives on that. Am I to look back a couple days before the trade to see the actual price....can you put dates on the bottom of the chart so I can be certain the day I am buying in.

[yanksrule80]

I like it I have been messing around with it got up to 500,000 then lost 250,000 in one trade and got angry and left.

[Supreona]

LOL, yeah one trade can kill you, but I must agree it is highly addictive.


I like it I have been messing around with it got up to 500,000 then lost 250,000 in one trade and got angry and left.

[netwrangler]

I like it I have been messing around with it got up to 500,000 then lost 250,000 in one trade and got angry and left.Easy come, easy go. :cool2:

[Supreona]

Easy come, even easier go. :cry: Hi NET!!!!!! LOL




Easy come, easy go. :cool2:

[stockgirl7]

Thanks for sharing! Hopefully we wont find any bugs <cross-fingers> :tongue:

[XOM]

I see the high scorer "rightclickcheater" has it gamed already, I was thinking about that very idea when I noticed his user name.

Anyhow, besides that it is intriguing, but I'd like to see a 1 day chart option because it's tough for me to figure a daytrade looking at a 6 month chart. Cool program though.

[freakscene]

yeah, the properties of the chart display all the info you need

i've alerted the OP in his forum and requested he mask the properties or disable right click

[ssanders82]

Thanks guys, for all your comments. Right-clicks are now disabled, but the image source can still be found in "View Source". (Shhh, don't tell anyone).

I also added an "Advanced" feature that lets you walk through a trade day-by-day

[clippermvp]

ss,

amazing idea / implementation. a couple of suggestions:

1.allow to liquidate positions in increments i.e. 1/16th, 1/8th, 1/4th, and 1/2

2.allow to add to positions in same increments

3.(most important) display 3mo / 6mo / 1yr charts AFTER position has been closed. obviously this has little do with your score / performace since result has been established, but is crucial for analyzing the exit decision.



thanks.