Solar

[chinaman711]

http://finance.yahoo.com/tech-ticker/article/2375/Solar-Stocks-Rise-from-the-Depths

[optimus25]

Some good stocks there. STP sticks out in my mind for some reason.

[madcowdisease]

Rockin' earlier today.

SPWR up 14.4% on news they'll build a few sites for Florida Power and Light.

FSLR up 5.5% as well likely due to high oil.

[Riddicks]

I still like LDK with their technology and management. But SPWR was rocking.

[englishman26]

I just have TAN (the etf) at the moment. I've traded FSLR and SOLF to good effect in the past. I like SOLF here a lot.

[Riddicks]

I know what you mean I used to own SOLF in my portfolio and sold it prior to the drop thanks to WSE's advice. But the recent accounting questions has me bothered, and I bet you it makes a run before it earnings again as Oil picks up the pace and heads back to $200.

[madcowdisease]

I just have TAN (the etf) at the moment. I've traded FSLR and SOLF to good effect in the past. I like SOLF here a lot.

TAN is trading close to its 52-week low. Does this look like a good level to initiate a position? Longterm I think solar goes higher though it will likely go lower short term as everything takes a beating.

[englishman26]

There's been a lot of throwing the baby out with the bath water recently - very bear market like - lots of profit taking in what ever had worked before - but I noticed that shift around on friday and the trend continued today - that is, commodities and the early year winners were coming off their pullbacks and all moving up again. I think many (ag, coal, solar, oil, nat gas, maybe even gold!) will see their highs again.

Not to redirect too much but POT (ag play) is already just 5% off it's high. You could argue that the ones that go down the least when everything goes down are the ones that will go higher the fastest.

Which solars went down the least??? (I'm, asking because I'm too lazy to figure it out!)

I'm just sticking with TAN and I agree this is a great buy point.

[Riddicks]

I think some of them are CSIQ and STP. Also with CSIQ coming out with news that their earnings are better than expected, I think you will start seeing that across the sector and could reach their highs before bursting again. Some good ones playing catch up are SOLF, JASO and LDK.

[Albert0373]

I think some of them are CSIQ and STP. Also with CSIQ coming out with news that their earnings are better than expected, I think you will start seeing that across the sector and could reach their highs before bursting again. Some good ones playing catch up are SOLF, JASO and LDK.

My LDK position did very well today :top: (favorite one out of the bunch, made me a lot of money in the past).

[Riddicks]

Yea I remember reading that post. You should bring it back if you ever get back in to Solars Albert. Oh by the way HSI down over 3% tonight. Could be scary tomorrow.

[englishman26]

Okay so I pulled my finger out:

3 month highs.

Stock High Now %-pullback
----- ---- ---- ----------
LDK $47.16 $36.34 -23%
SOL $27.80 $15.44 -44%
FSLR $311.14 $285.96 -8%
ESLR $12.30 $9.16 -26% (most recent high - Jun 19th)
SOLF $26.50 $14.87 -44%
TSL $51.13 $30.31 -41%
JASO $25.58 $16.49 -36% (most distant recent high - Apr. 21)
AKNS $7.24 $4.68 -35%
ASTI $16.84 $9.15 -46%
STP $49.18 $35.56 -28%

Typically SOLF and SOL have the greatest volatility. Either trade that or I suggest go best of breed and pick the one with the lowest hype-truth ratio which went down the least in this pullback: FSLR.

[ZaNoob]

I like solars because they are very volatile. But lately I noticed everytime oil goes down the solars go down but when oil recovers they don't do much.

Another problem with solars is that companies can sprout and enter this sector. In oil, you either have the fields or you don't. You can't just make an oil company and have no oil to pump out.

I think the solar ETF is TAN. Catch your SOL and get a nice TAN. I know I am.

[Grundalizer]

So what does SOL look like now

[englishman26]

SOL seems to have a nice uptrend. Solar often just trades with oil and this one did today. I'm not in but if I was I wouldn't be selling here. The resistance looks like $17-18 which you could have gotten today so today was a possible exit point but I think it should get there again tomorrow and I would look to hold or even buy more if it breaks through $18 - could get to $22 if it does. GL.

[madcowdisease]

Anyone still in these names?

ASTI & CSIQ both had 15% gains. STP moved higher by 12% and even FSLR moved 5.5%.

[madcowdisease]

The entire solar complex has come down substatially from the highs. I still believe solar will be a major component of the US energy grid in the next 10-20 years. Also, the government isn't going to strip these firms of their favorable tax credits anytime soon. Hell, even oil is still getting tax breaks and that technology is as old as our economy itself. A

As a prudent investor I'm always looking for the best entry possible. Many of he profitable names have exremely high valuations given the environment we're in. STP has a P/E of 24, FSLR 57, & SPWRA 104. This is not to mention the unprofitable names that have no P/E to speak of and trade on future potential.

At what point does solar begin to look "cheap"? Is a 50 multiple too much for FSLR? Is sub-$4 a good entry for ESLR? These are just a couple of the valuation questions I have regarding this sector but I'll leave it open ended to get your thoughts on the sector as a whole amid the broad based sell-off we're experiencing.

Thanks in advance.

[shulink]

YGE has P/E 9.37 with increased revene and income every quarterly.
TSL has P/E 7.38 also have very strong income and triple income last year.
I prefer this two solar stocks, and anyone interesting could check out more for yourself.Both of them hit lowest price historically.

[madcowdisease]

Got whiff that Goldman downgraded the sector on Tuesday. Perhaps after the rest of the analysts follow Goldman's lead it will be safe to pick away at these. Until then simply keep them on the radar.

Anyone have a P/E that would signal a good entry?

[madcowdisease]

Will we see sub-$100/share in FSLR? Currently at $117

[timsummit]

is this the bottom for solor? or are they going lower? serveral solar companies are on their lowest level since ipo.

[madcowdisease]

is this the bottom for solor? or are they going lower? serveral solar companies are on their lowest level since ipo.

Been wondering the same thing. Blind leading the blind here.

[Albert0373]

Got some ASTIZ at 1.30

[Albert0373]

The solar group may have a nice rally here into Obama's inauguration.

I'll be checking out the others (FSLR, SOLF, etc.)

[Wookie]

Got some ASTIZ at 1.30


Pretty decent backer they got - Norks Hydro (now owns 35%+ of Ascent)! Odd that the Yahoo profile , message board and what not is bunkers?

Spin off from ITN, and I like the idea of Photovoltaic product in the shape, form and use similar to plywood !

Wonder when they go to market and what kind of revenues they be looking at???

Interesting, tossed into the do more research bin - too bad it's not traded in Canada.

My play is on the UMG SI producer - Timminco. TIM.TO

[Albert0373]

I might add to ASTI/ASTIZ later.

-We see revenues rising 53% in 2008 and an additional
54% in 2009, with all revenues expected
to come from governmental R&D contracts.We
do not project any revenues to be derived from
ASTI's principal manufacturing operations until
2010. ASTI currently intends to have production
capacity of 30 megawatts (MW) by the end of
2009, 60MW at the end of 2010, and 110MW by
the end of 2011.We expect the thin-film solar
market to outgrow the traditional crystalline silicon
photovoltaic market over the next five
years.

-We project operating losses through the end of
2009, as we expect ASTI to remain in the product
development phase for the foreseeable future.
We anticipate that ASTI will increase R&D
expenses in 2009, as it aims to reach module efficiencies
of 7% to 8% in low rate initial production.

-We also see rising SG&A costs due to its
planned expansion of manufacturing capacity.
ä Norsk Hydro has a 35% interest in ASTI and
may increase its ownership stake beginning in
June 2009.We expect additional future investments
from Norsk Hydro.

S&P report via Scottrade (http://23stk.com/asti.pdf)

[Wookie]

Thank you for the info and S&P report - shall investigate deeper. I definitely like the Norsk Hydro involvement and the type of solution they want to offer.

Heck I would use that in the new house I want to build in a few years, maybe they have it ready by then - :embarassed:

[Albert0373]

Grr, was looking at DSTI at 1.15 and its warrants earlier but didn't like it.

Jumped to 1.31

[Albert0373]

ASTI:

http://i43.tinypic.com/nxsxac.png

[Wookie]

LDK being taken out to the back shed after hour. Seems people are not happy with Rev. Outlook and Guidance.

Might impact Solar in General tomorrow....

[Albert0373]

Great shorting opportunity then :)

Failures of asc. triangles break down pretty hard.

There was one forming on LDK too.

[Wookie]

Great shorting opportunity then :)

Failures of asc. triangles break down pretty hard.

There was one forming on LDK too.

To be seen I guess.

Seems to have pretty solid support @ $11.45 ish

[Wookie]

LDK just turned GREEN on twice the Time Stamp volume !

It's also pulling the other Solar up. I guess people elected to ignore the temporary disappointment.

Disclosure: No position in Solar, except for silicon producer TIM.TO

[Albert0373]

Didn't get to make any trades but I remember a similar event that happened a few months back.

A certain solar stock (SOLF? Can't remember...) reported horrible earnings and was down quite a bit at open...(~15%) but then closed black by the end of day. Two days later, they report huge contracts and spiked up huge.

Hopefully, hoping for the same! :)

[madcowdisease]

For those with an extended investing horizon and not looking for a short term trade I don't think you can go wrong with solar. You will have massive government investment and a load of cheap labor to pick from (e.g. 7.2% unemployment and climbing) for these projects.

[mlegha1]

Where is China man does any one have his contact info?

[Albert0373]

Solars making one heckuva run..

SOLF
ASTI
SOL
TSL
LDK
CSUN
STP :eek2:

Wooooow!!!

[timsummit]

Both YGe and TSL up over 40% after the news.

[madcowdisease]

Solars making one heckuva run..

SOLF
ASTI
SOL
TSL
LDK
CSUN
STP :eek2:

Wooooow!!!

Gotta think the shorts got blindsided by this news.