Who Can Call a Bottom?

[Horsefish]

Let's have some fun. I have been sitting on about 75% cash since October highs in anticipation of this downturn. It's beginning to burn a hole in my pocket. So where do you think the most likely bottom will be? My thoughts:

1. This is the time of year when lots of IRA annual deposits are coming into mutual funds. This inflow is probably supporting equity prices here.
2. In April we will see financials have to report earnings again. Probably lots more balance sheet pain will come out.
3. Will probably see fed cut before then. But another leg down between cut and April earnings season.
I am going to place my guess for a market bottom during the first two weeks of April.

[microhedge]

Oh that kind of bottom... nevermind then, its Friday afternoon :beerglass:

[Vigile]

As I mentioned in the thread guessing the Dow 2008, it's a bad idea to try and pick the bottom. When capitulation arrives it arrives, until then, shorting at resistance offers by far the best risk:reward.

Dip buying is very risky in a downtrending market.

But since you have been mostly in cash since October, I'm sure I'm preaching to the chior.

Great job! :biggrin:

[Horsefish]

LOL. Thanks for reminding me its friday. Find it so facinating that I can't break away sometimes.