Alternative energy

[niketennis1]

Ok I have a gameplan for what stocks I'd like to buy in the future but I would like to hear this forum's opinions on my ideas. One sector that I have a lot of confidence in is alternative energy. The 3 stocks I like are FSLR, SOLF, and FCEL. Each stock is down from 3 months ago due to this poor market. This looks like a great buy opportunity because I think these stocks are getting lowered unfairly and will be much higher in the next coming months. I like SOLF the best out of all plays because its currently at $17.92 and its 52 week high is $40.19. The stock has decreased a lot since December-January and if it can return to the $25-35 range, a lot of money could be made. I'm going to wait it out though to see how the stock does and I may buy at a price around $20 because I like to buy stocks that are on there way up.

[piggybank]

The problem with solar remains in valuation, wich is much higher for most stocks than in any other maket. FSLR for ex., after it's correction and increased sales/profit with last quarter, still trades at a PE of about 100, or 4 to 5 times it's real valuation. (if PE of 20 is regarded a normal) Solf goes at a PE of 60 at 17$ and FCEL runs at a high net loss wich makes it valuation something super hot baked air.

These valuations are so high because they already calculate in the valuatuion that the stock should have by 2009 or something IF they manage to grow to expectations quarter by quarter. Failing to meet expectations, and here lies the dfanger, would mean that the stock might plummet.

Overall, if youre investing in solar, it's best to buy something to it's valuation, or if youre buying on high valuation you better be sure that they can meet expectations in the future.

It doesn't mean they are bad stocks to invest in. Theyr valuations are a sign of their succes. But there are other alternative stock you can get in at a more normal price to.

It does surprize me though that "wind power" is so much less hyped than solar. I think it is so in the USA and for US investers because the USA doesn't have very prolific wind company's as compared to Europe. For the same matter iot surprizes me that American & Chinese solar company's get much more hyped than European solar's. Many US investor site's promoting solars look a bit mercantile to me with their advice, especially considering that US solar's and renewable's are MUCH higher valued than European or Chinese company's.

For ex., Europe's largest cell producer, Q-cells AG only trades at a PE of about 30 after the january fall, same goes for Europe's largest verticly integrated solar company Renewable energy corperation. You hardly see these names ever on such site's like Seekingalpha. Yet they are relativly lower valued than American solars and they both have set contracts up to 2010 and great expansion forecast. Same goes for Large and highly succesfull European wind mill manufacturers like Vestas wind, Nordex Ag or Gamesa technologica, lest alone some great wind farm company's in Europe.

Personally, i am putting much less of my money in Solar than in Wind, and less in the USA than Europe and China. I think 2008 will be a wind year, they are popping out of the ground like moles lately here in Europe, much more clearly than Solar. It's deffinatly more soothing this way to my risk tollerance. Though i am hughly interrested in the products that Ascent solar technoligies might make with their strategic partner Norsk hydro in the future. (small flexible hand sized solar panels, the uses are almost limmitless i think)

In general though American solar looks like a heck of a pump job to me, and i blame sites like Seekingalpha or Nbc money programs and guys like Cramer for pumping solar's so high and make it almost impossible for prudent investor's to buy at a risk tollerable price.Though i have some Solars, i'm generaly increasing my portfolio more in the direction of Wind. Though i recently bought a small position of "LDK solar" for ex. because of a fairly low PE and very good growth forecasts with set contracts in the future.

[MrSer]

I own solf march 20 calls. Their earnings on march 6th and i expect a run up. Last earnings it shot up to 40 from 15. I would buy and sell before earnings or if your gutsy hold till earnings. Good luck. Oh and as for fslr wait a few days till it goes back around the 200 level and pick up some can't go wrong with it. The p\e seems high because growth is there. Growth will lower the p\e with time. Good luck with the path you chose. :top:

[chinaman711]

SOLF is 1 of my favorite long term solar plays and a nice stock to trade. Oil looks to go higher and solar looks to be in play for years to come unless oil goes back to $20 a barrel. Can't see that happening with demand coming from all over the world.

[optimus25]

SOLF is 1 of my favorite long term solar plays and a nice stock to trade. Oil looks to go higher and solar looks to be in play for years to come unless oil goes back to $20 a barrel. Can't see that happening with demand coming from all over the world.

I agree. Demand for oil will not fall to where prices will drop substantially from where we are today. Alternative energy will be huge for years to come. My spec plays are CSUN & YGE.