Energy Equities

[wchutson1]

Jim Cramer offers some very solid advise on this show (ie. diversification, sector & stock search, be unemotional/don't panic). However, Jim does a lot of shooting from the hip.

I have learned to go against the popular sentiment to make a pretty good return on my portifolio (+55% YTD).

Jim likes to jump on the bandwagon more than most analysts that I follow. Once he made Dicks Sporting Goods his stock of the week (this week), I shorted as much of DKS as I could and will close my position today.

The moral of the story is don't allow anyone to influence your investments that are not in line with the facts. Cramer clearly did not have his facts straight as he shoots from the hip way too much.

Now he is telling his viewers to 'ring the register' on engery stocks. Poor PPI data along with Walmart's comments pushed trader sentiment to push all energy equities down. This is in the face of a bearish drawdown on gas inventories of 5 million bbls. for the week. China and India's economy is growing and needs more energy to expand. Iran is holding the world by the short hairs over NUKES. Light sweat crude supplies are diminishing and heavy sour crude is in far greater supply.

Cramer is telling everyone to ring the register on Volero (vlo). VLO is a refiner of the heavy crude. I AM LOADING UP ON THIS EQUITY AS THE CRAMER PEOPLE ARE SELLING AT LOW PANIC PRICING. Thank you Cramer fans.

Watch the energy stocks rebound today or tomarrow and go to new highs.

[stockmaster8318]

I completely disagree, the bull market in energy is over and the move has been made. Could energy and oil stocks go higher sure. However, oil has been the biggest speculative bubble in the market (not housing) and yesterday that bubble burst. The thing that was driving oil up was demand not supply and when demand wasnt nearly as high as expected in the data and oil and sold off. Cramer is absolutely right on this one the top is here and if youre loading up on oil stocks I'm afraid youre making a big mistake.

[Jay Framson]

Well it does concern me that just a couple weeks ago Cramer was talking about how oil is going to go to $100 bbl, that there is a lot left to the bull market in oil, and was urging everyone to buy Valero, NOV, Encana, etc. Then he said the energy markets were experiencing some profit taking and were in the midst of a 3-day downturn, but hang in there. Then after they go down some more he says sell. I stupidly bought in after the big run-up thinking there was more upside based on his comments ... I have definitely learned to be a little more cautious and pay more attention to my own instincts a little more!

[stockmaster8318]

I dont think Cramer himself ever said oil would go to $100 a barrel. I think there were others that were saying it but Cramer wasnt one of them. Plus, there were no signs of a technical breakdown in the rally until yesterday and until there was one there was no reason to believe the rally wouldnt continue. So when he said stick with oil a month ago it was the right mov, it was simply profit taking. However, yesterday was the signal to everyone to get out.

[deepinwonder]

He said to load up on Chesapeake two days ago and four or five other energy companies on Monday. Also told holders of Cimarex to HANG ON AND NOT SELL, the week before he left, only to cash in himself after his five days of not talking about it where up, while he was down in Hawaii sucking pina coladas with his goddess. And she is trading who knows what behind the scenes?

Look, I have been enjoying this show, too, but in order to make a few dollars for charity, he is losing people fortunes. You can't pump a stock, then keep your mouth shut for five days if you see trouble, just so you can sell your own shares and say you are trying to make US money, Cramer. Cram it, I'm over it.

[cnelson]

I got in to energy stocks back in June/July, and unfortunately between the cost of oil coming down a few dollars earlier this week, and Cramer's recommendation to sell, I'm back to about where I started. Its hard to get motivated to sell if I'm essentially realizing a short term gain/loss of a few dollars. For now, I'm going to hold on for a bit longer... and set a reasonable stop loss if things get out of hand.

I do, also, find it odd that Cramer in recent weeks didn't forsee that oil/energy was going to be 10% of the S&P, which was one of his reasons for becoming bearish on this sector.

Only time will tell!

[cnelson]

I got in to energy stocks back in June/July, and unfortunately between the cost of oil coming down a few dollars earlier this week, and Cramer's recommendation to sell, I'm back to about where I started. Its hard to get motivated to sell if I'm essentially realizing a short term gain/loss of a few dollars. For now, I'm going to hold on for a bit longer... and set a reasonable stop loss if things get out of hand.

I do, also, find it odd that Cramer in recent weeks didn't forsee that oil/energy was going to be 10% of the S&P, which was one of his reasons for becoming bearish on this sector.

Only time will tell!

[deepinwonder]

Just think of how much better things would be, today, if those rookies hadn't piled on to after hours driving prices down farther than they needed to go, because they are too stupid to care what price they are buying or selling at.

One thing in Cramer's favor is that he keeps telling those morons not to do that, but they just do it, anyway, and to heck with the consequences to anyone, including themselves. Did you see what they did to that Israeli stock ISL today? OMG, that is ridiculous.

And don't forget to rush out and get your stock of the week! DICK'S!!

Good thing I bought into STZ, too. It's only down two bucks, but with all these people losing their butts on Chesapeake and Encana, maybe liquor sales will pick up and things will work out fine, after all. hehe

[deepinwonder]

PS I'm doing the same thing, cnelson, putting in stops. They didn't hit today, but CHK came within one cent! I thought I'd have a stroke. LOL

[cnelson]

WOW! One cent. That was close! Lets hope for some better energy sector days in the near future!

[stockmaster8318]

He said to load up on Chesapeake two days ago and four or five other energy companies on Monday. Also told holders of Cimarex to HANG ON AND NOT SELL, the week before he left, only to cash in himself after his five days of not talking about it where up, while he was down in Hawaii sucking pina coladas with his goddess. And she is trading who knows what behind the scenes?

Look, I have been enjoying this show, too, but in order to make a few dollars for charity, he is losing people fortunes. You can't pump a stock, then keep your mouth shut for five days if you see trouble, just so you can sell your own shares and say you are trying to make US money, Cramer. Cram it, I'm over it.

Thats called taking a profit. He made enough money in Cimarex so he sold his shares. Again, there was no reason to start selling shares in energy until yesterday even if your shares were still down because there were no signs that the rally was truly over. Now that the end is near its time to start cutting back and/or selling your energy completely. Thats called adjusting to changing conditions. I was calling friends yesterday afternoon and telling them to start cutting back their oil because we have officially hit the top. One more thing lets not get conspiratorial like the doofuses that post on the CNBC and Y! message boards. Lets stick to facts when criticizing Cramer and not falsely say that his wife is secretly cutting backroom deals okay.

[stormj]

Look, most of us should know two things.

(1) You're stupid to pick a stock because someone on TV picks it. Cramer himself says that.
(2) Despite that truth, another fact is this: people will do it anyway.

I was shocked to see him recommend XEC and then just a few days later can it. All he had to do was remind people about his "discipline" when he made that recommendation and say that point is getting close. XEC is probably going to drop to in value now.

But there's no proof he did that in bad faith.

[deepinwonder]

No, you're right, but he did it. Tonight, he recommended Halliburton and Schlumberger during the Lightening Round, right before that soliloquy about how he doesn't like energy anymore and those who disagree with him were implied to be sticks in the mud.

If anyone bought into these gas stocks high, I can't say it's going to go up or down, but we didn't sell out and I haven't seen one analyst downgrade any energy stocks this week, I've been watching. I did see an upgrade on Atwood Oceanics.

There's nothing wrong with ringing the register, but we can buy and sell stocks without driving the prices too high or low in after hours, too.

This was also in the news, today, in case you all missed it:

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BC4FE10D0%2D7367%2D4DEB%2D949F%2D 9F622D2C13D4%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=

I'll bet Cramer starts hitting that bull horn when these babies start to go back up. How long with it take? Your guess is as good as mine, but the CEO of CHK just bought 250,000 shares with his own money, two days ago, so he must be optimistic.

Encana is another story. They are having problems with natives taking over their wells in Ecuador, the country declared a state of emergency, today, and now they are starting to take them over in Nigeria. People are beating each other up in gas lines in China, too. Cramer left that out of the show, tonight, but I'm doing my homework. BOOOOOOYAH!!! ;)

[stockmaster8318]

He elobarated about Halliburion and Slumberger on his radio show. His point is there is that the drillers are still drilling even if oil has peaked so they still will work. The whole China thing is media hype pure and simple and even if oil does go up again it wont get past $70. The bottom line the move has been made and if yure heavy on oil youre at great risk.

And please dont go by Wall Street analysts they miss almost EVERYTHING.

[deepinwonder]

Oh, I wouldn't do that. :roll:

There was quite a bit of news and discussion about energy, today, if anyone hasn’t seen these articles and is interested. It may help you decide what to do for yourself. We’re going to hold and put a lot of thought into that decision. We did pare back three stocks, because we were so overweight in energy, but that was a while back and we still have four.

Goldman Sachs statement on oil, this morning, from the article "Oil Hovers Above $63 a Barrel." It was all over the news…

http://www.thestreet.com/_tscs/stocks/elinorarbel/10238651.html

UPDATE 1-Ecuador troops move in as protest hits oil exports

http://today.reuters.com/investing/financeArticle.aspx?type=bondsNews&storyID=URI:urn:newsml:reuters.com:20050818:MTFH78 158_2005-08-18_21-52-19_N18345831:1

Shell's shut oilfield in Nigeria yet to reopen: official

http://www.forbes.com/home/feeds/afx/2005/08/18/afx2185089.html

Natural-gas futures drop 5%
Crude falls to 2-week low under $63 then recovers

http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7BB252A5F7%2DA477%2D4D74%2DBB89%2D 3D6882C38090%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=

CNBC’s Morning Call August 18, 2005 11:25 AM ET
Exclusive stock picks: Wyeth, Diamond Offshore Drilling

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/CNBCTV/Articles/StockPicks/P126569.asp

VIDEO from this morning's news - The latest Pickens bets on $75 oil

http://moneycentral.msn.com/content/common/P88908.asp

The Season Is the Reason for Energy Patience

http://www.thestreet.com/_tsclsii/comment/chrisedmonds/10238535.html

From Tuesday… 'Deal reached' in Nigeria oil protest

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/africa/2129281.stm

And Jim’s take on it, in today’s article. I don’t know what it is, because you have to pay for a subscription to see it.

James J. Cramer
What's Attractive in Oil

Cramer lays out the big picture for the sector, and how it fits his portfolio.

http://www.thestreet.com/