MER - $500 on $55 puts

[MrSer]

Gambling with 500$ on 55$ puts. Hopefully there earnings report will be horrible. Most likely it will be ugly.

[netwrangler]

Gambling with 500$ on 55$ puts. Hopefully there earnings report will be horrible. Most likely it will be ugly.January puts?

[MrSer]

January puts?

Yup. What do you think about this?

[netwrangler]

Yup. What do you think about this?You will need to move quickly. Since the JAN puts expire on the 19th, you don't have much time for the market to react.

Do you know when, on Thursday, MER earnings will be out? Yahoo Finance doesn't show a time. If it is after the close and it is good news, MER could gap up on Friday and leave you high and dry.

If the announcement is before the open tomorrow, you have a little more wiggle room. The JAN date is gutsy. You will get max value if you are right. Choosing the FEB date would have given you some time value in the puts so you wouldn't be wiped out by an up move.

But you didn't do that, so

Figure out when the announcement is [you probably know already]
Be ready to move as soon as you can trade after the announcement. I don't mean you should close the position as soon as you can. Ride a favorable tape, but close out if the tape goes against you.
Watch out for pre-announcements that may trigger an early move.

Good luck

[MrSer]

Earnings is at 12pm and like i said i took a huge gamble. I'm predicting mer to write down more than expected thus causing the stock to go down. I'm predicting it to be around 48-50. This will cause my options to give about 400%-600% profit, but that is if all goes well.

[pedrom727]

Merrill earnings are before the bell..... *edit* if Merill has a huge writedown it could actually cause a move up, many were looking for Citi to come out with a write down in the range of $24 Billion and when they only came out with $18.1 Billion their stock suffered.

[MrSer]

Merrill earnings are before the bell..... *edit* if Merill has a huge writedown it could actually cause a move up, many were looking for Citi to come out with a write down in the range of $24 Billion and when they only came out with $18.1 Billion their stock suffered.

The run up today is because of them running up their own stock to minimize the loss they will have on the day of their announcement just like C and many other major companies. Wheres proof that it will be announced before bell? All i found was they will announce at 12 pm.

[aiki14]

Here's the press release, report at 0800
January 4, 2008 4:15 p.m.
Merrill Lynch to Announce Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2007 Results on January 17

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--January 04, 2008--
Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MER) plans to announce fourth quarter and full year 2007 results on Thursday, January 17, 2008. John Thain, chief executive officer, and Nelson Chai, chief financial officer, plan to host a conference call that day at 8:00 a.m. (ET) to review results with the investment community. The general public is invited to listen to the call by dialing (888) 810-0245 (inside the United States and Canada) or (706) 634-0180 (outside the United States), or via a live audio webcast at www.ir.ml.com. On-demand webcast replay will be available shortly after the call at the same web address.


CONTACT: Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc.
Media Relations
Jessica Oppenheim, 212-449-2107
Jessica_Oppenheim@ml.com
or
Investor Relations
Sara Furber, 866-607-1234
Investor_Relations@ml.com

SOURCE: Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc.
Copyright Business Wire 2008

[MrSer]

Here's the press release, report at 0800
January 4, 2008 4:15 p.m.
Merrill Lynch to Announce Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2007 Results on January 17

NEW YORK--(BUSINESS WIRE)--January 04, 2008--
Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc. (NYSE: MER) plans to announce fourth quarter and full year 2007 results on Thursday, January 17, 2008. John Thain, chief executive officer, and Nelson Chai, chief financial officer, plan to host a conference call that day at 8:00 a.m. (ET) to review results with the investment community. The general public is invited to listen to the call by dialing (888) 810-0245 (inside the United States and Canada) or (706) 634-0180 (outside the United States), or via a live audio webcast at www.ir.ml.com. On-demand webcast replay will be available shortly after the call at the same web address.


CONTACT: Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc.
Media Relations
Jessica Oppenheim, 212-449-2107
Jessica_Oppenheim@ml.com
or
Investor Relations
Sara Furber, 866-607-1234
Investor_Relations@ml.com

SOURCE: Merrill Lynch & Co., Inc.
Copyright Business Wire 2008
Thank you. What do you believe will happen to MER's stock price?

[aiki14]

Thank you. What do you believe will happen to MER's stock price?

I think it goes up and leads a market rally. I think the market really has any negative so baked in it's absurd, and I believe Thain will do such an effective corporate enema that the market will react positively to it. If they are seen as fully divesting all of the crap it will signal at least a hint of the end of the subprime mess as it applies to the market.
I could be utterly wrong but that's the bet I would make. And that's the bet that will get the better odds than the other side where everybody else is.
Should be fun, I'll be in the chatroom here, when the call is going on, I might even listen in. If you can, join us.

[netwrangler]

With all of the comment above, and I'm not one to bet against Aiki, you could still be right.

I'll be following your trade tomorrow.

[wallstreetsedge]

its already expected that if they dont post a writedown of more than 15b, its fine and its going to push the stock up. to be honest, with only a couple hundred dollars, i would have sat out of th is one or bought out the money calls for a few months. not too much down side from here on the short term.

do you remember when cfc posted that huge loss that was worse than ANYONES expectations and the stock ran up 30%?

[MrSer]

Well its only a few hundred dollars and was some of my profit. I read somewhere that Thain wanted to write down 20b in one huge write down but they said it will be 12-15b and they will write off some more in the future. Hopefully I'll be right you never know.

[Thierry Martin]

:o>

[Thierry Martin]

2507

[aiki14]

Here are the numbers:

Net loss full yr 8.6 Billion or 10.73 per diluted share
pretax loss of 12.8 Billion

4Q net revenue is -8.2 Billion
pretax -14.9 billion net -10.3 or 12.57/dilSh

Book Val 30.30/sh
adj through convertibles 32.80/sh

Write Downs 11.5Billion

Much other good news from the Brokerage side of the house, and the Investment Banking side.

Futures on the MER stock point lower at 7:15, but trending up from lows
Market futures up at 7:15
Potentially a good day.

[chacho]

Bet you're feeling good. Still holding?

[MrSer]

Hell yeah. Like that guys? Going to bring my gal out for a nice dinner tonight. 8)

[netwrangler]

Hell yeah. Like that guys? Going to bring my gal out for a nice dinner tonight. 8)Nicely done.

Don't forget to close out. lol

[MrSer]

Nicely done.

Don't forget to close out. lol

Haha that would be horrible if i forgot.

[Keventerprises]

Here are the numbers:

Net loss full yr 8.6 Billion or 10.73 per diluted share
pretax loss of 12.8 Billion

4Q net revenue is -8.2 Billion
pretax -14.9 billion net -10.3 or 12.57/dilSh

Book Val 30.30/sh
adj through convertibles 32.80/sh

Write Downs 11.5Billion

Much other good news from the Brokerage side of the house, and the Investment Banking side.

Futures on the MER stock point lower at 7:15, but trending up from lows
Market futures up at 7:15
Potentially a good day.

Hi Aiki,
I learned from what you said regarding a high price of Calls sometimes being a sign of hedging, and since MER Jan 19th Calls were extremely high yesterday at $6.45, and I expected a similar fall On MER as happened with Citigroup, I successfully shorted MER for the last 24 hrs. I was pretty confident in this, but I should have bought Puts like MrSer and leveraged it since the Puts were cheap. Thank you for your help, insight and wisdom, and also congratulations to MrSer!

[kingfisher]

Congrats on a Nice Call.

Where are you taking the Lady for dinner tonight? I have a feeling its not Taco Hell.

Keep up the good work.

[englishman26]

Nice bet - enjoy the dinner! :top:

[cramerica1972]

Nice bet - enjoy the dinner! :top:how much money is that?:santaclaus: