MAJOR breakdown

[wallstreetsedge]

markets are signalling a major breakdown... i would start exiting long positions and get on the short side.. especially overvalue d companies like solar and tech

some co's id watch are goog, emc, rmbs, brlc, rimm, aapl

[TonyM]

Maybe, maybe not, but I keep getting these flashbacks for some reason.


Please keep buying the dips, Cramer sheep.

Buy them all the way down to Dow 9,500, Naz 1,975, and S&P 1217.


Thanks!

Say what you want about me.

I gave all of you fair warning.

Here's some more great advice - this has only begun. This will be a massive correction. You can not afford to be a dip buyer here. You will get destroyed.

Take whatever profits you have and seek shelter. And wait out this storm.

:)

I honestly believe DJIA is headed for 11,200. The Naz is headed for 2,120.

[wallstreetsedge]

it definitely could be a bear trap... i never put that though past me but i do think that a majority of stocks in this market arent even close to being oversold yet. also if you think the market is goinna run, then you definitely still havent taken into acct the subprime mess and credit crunch. think of this, the market is a 6 month indicator of what the ecomony is doing... if you had to look at it percentage wise, were only 10% of the way there... 2008 is goinna be extremely rocky

id probably start to look to invest in less illiquid alternative investments, small caps, and definitely high yield bonds.. start heading into the defensive companies and companies that everyone needs.. when one economy goes bad, at least another will flourish so start jumping into companies like intc, calm, major companies no one can live without

youre goinna see a lot of selling and people covering their house calls soon so i would jump out of volatile stocks - most notably tech and solar

i would keep going short on financials, subprimes, homebuilders, and insurers... we have record breaking defaults and ORI is still an untapped resource..

[wallstreetsedge]

yeah... good thing no one listens to me and i get a negative reputation point :ridinghorse:

[pedrom727]

I agree with you, we've never seen anything particularly like this in our history. The sheer leverage and ease of money after the '01 recession caused extremely relaxed lending standards which are now obliterating the foundations of our credit system. The ease of cash also caused hundreds of Billions to be invested into AAA rated paper with 9-11% returns which now have almost no value due to lack of buyers.

This in conjunction with the depreciating value of homes which looks like it might continue down to 30% are hammering the consumer. I'm even more convinced after seeing Intel's report just now. I've heard reports of people leveraging money for fixed investments (SIVs, CDOs, etc) up to FIFTY times. Now with no demand and no ability to mark these assets to market, nearly our whole banking system is being held hostage.

JP Morgan might be able to put out decent numbers but even if they do it will likely be shadowed by INTC's lackluster quarter and their outlook will likely be to slower growth as well. My prediction is that Washington Mutual will report greater than $2 per share in losses on Thursday, leaving a 1350 level in the S&P 500 by the end of the week not that far beyond belief.

More and more this is beginning to look like the perfect storm; when we factor in the Federal Reserve's HORRID response time and the transition between extremes in interest rates which occurred during the upward slope of the housing and economic cycle we are being left defenseless. The Jan.30 interest cut does not do anything to help us out of this mess which is developing for at least the first two quarters.

We have also broken several key resistance levels in the indexes and the news is not looking like it will get better. I'd be bracing my portfolio for the worst, this crisis keeps spreading to more and more areas of the economy.

[MrSer]

I was just thinking about buying ORI puts.

[aiki14]

As much as I hate to agree with the OP, and in spite of the fact I am an uberbull by nature. The S&P falling below 1380 is very troubling, there is a long way to the next support level which could be near 1250. That would be DJIA 11100. The earnings season is really iffy, especially in the financials which will lead us out of this eventually, but it doesn't look like this quarter. And Citi didn't appear to completely clear out the trash which amazed me. If Merrill doesn't write down a staggering amount then it will be another quarter at least before we can start putting this mess behind us.
I would be looking at portfolio protection strategies at this time. Keep some cash on the side and consider index puts or Short side ETF's. If your really long term, dollar cost average, even this will pass.

[madcowdisease]

markets are signalling a major breakdown... i would start exiting long positions and get on the short side.. especially overvalue d companies like solar and tech

some co's id watch are goog, emc, rmbs, brlc, rimm, aapl

When you say "watch" do you mean be concerned with or are you watching these for good entry points? I hold a sizeable portion of my portfolo in GOOG and am now at about my cost basis. However, I hear the quarter is good and was thinking of bailing on the positive news and sitting in cash at that point.

[wallstreetsedge]

I was just thinking about buying ORI puts.

funny that you mentioned ORI.. ive been saying that for a while on this forum


as for watching, i mean as in those stocks will determine where the market goes and im short on this market right now.. right now it looks like...

GOOG is on its way to 550
EMC is heading to 14
RMBS going to 12
BRLC goes to 2
AAPL goes to 140, minimum 160

[pedrom727]

What is your opinion on the argument that stocks usually bottom at the beginning of a recession? I saw a UBS analyst come out with a report stating that historically markets have bottomed 6 months before recession is over, and thus January would be a buying opportunity. I still am skeptical though particularly with the destruction of liquidity and credit that seems to be prevailing.

[netwrangler]

What is your opinion on the argument that stocks usually bottom at the beginning of a recession? I saw a UBS analyst come out with a report stating that historically markets have bottomed 6 months before recession is over, and thus January would be a buying opportunity. I still am skeptical though particularly with the destruction of liquidity and credit that seems to be prevailing.I expect Wall St. to lead Main St. into and out of a recession.

Of course, timing is everything!

[wallstreetsedge]

What is your opinion on the argument that stocks usually bottom at the beginning of a recession? I saw a UBS analyst come out with a report stating that historically markets have bottomed 6 months before recession is over, and thus January would be a buying opportunity. I still am skeptical though particularly with the destruction of liquidity and credit that seems to be prevailing.

if this is a recession do you honestly think is going to be over any time soon?

i think the market has more downside to go but i would look to jump into 5-day trades. solars would be a good aggressive opportunity right now if you want to buy today, sell tomorrow... based on trading right now, the short term bottom is just about out of the way and id look for a hsort term reversal tomorrow or next week

today i started jumping ship of a majority of my put positions to take profits and im moving that into my call positions - im going aggressively into MA

as of now, i only have about 3 short positions still open

[MyRightEye]

3 months ago I put $3100 into a few stocks, mostly AAPL and a few of GZapper's picks :)

My $3100 went up to $39~~. Now it is down to $2976. What a sorry state.

I am heavily in AAPL, thinking that with all the good news yesterday the price would go crazy. It DID, just in the WRONG direction!!! Crap.

I plan to pull out of the market all together except for a few pennies and buy Gold and Silver instead in case the recession get truly serious.

Do people expect their to be a recovery this week or next or should I just learn my lesson and pull out now?

[wallstreetsedge]

i was telling rich to expect a rally either tomorrow or early next week. if we can see a rally tomorrow, stay clear friday and buy at the close.

we'll have a 300 pt rally either tomorrow or next week based on a number of different things i look at. look at everything from a short term point of view this quarter, i wouldnt be caught holding anything more than a week

i was telling rich and everyone else to sell calls against their apple positions or to start shorting it - that was back when the stock was 200 and i bought puts. i said it again when apple was at 195. i said it again a couple of days ago when aapl was at 170 and look at it today.. aapl was under 160, i sold out of my puts and i made about 100% in that one month time frame - i even told everyone that my aapl put position was my largest position.. oh well

i wouldnt be in a rush to get out of it now... if it pulls down to 155, im probably going to start looking to go long on it.

right now my biggest long position is MA

but thats just me.. no one listens to my picks anyway :withstupid:

[pedrom727]

Mastercard is a great pick, huge international business and unlike American Express they don't take credit risk. It got slaughtered on the AmEx news for no reason, I'm looking for around $170 to start building a position in it.

[MyRightEye]

Hitting $160... I hope you're right....

[wallstreetsedge]

hope you got in while it was down

[MrSer]

It definitely won't be this week because Mer's earnings are coming out tomorrow and it will be disgusting.

[wallstreetsedge]

its already factored in, they did a preannouncement

[aiki14]

its already factored in, they did a preannouncement
Where did you see that?

[wallstreetsedge]

i believe it was last week, they said somewhere along the lines of $11-13b

here comes the market breaking down to 12200

[madcowdisease]

funny that you mentioned ORI.. ive been saying that for a while on this forum


as for watching, i mean as in those stocks will determine where the market goes and im short on this market right now.. right now it looks like...

GOOG is on its way to 550
EMC is heading to 14
RMBS going to 12
BRLC goes to 2
AAPL goes to 140, minimum 160

Good call on GOOG.

[wallstreetsedge]

thanks... AAPL hit my target too... but i dumped my puts when it was as low as 145 and high as 160... should have kept holding on oh well

AAPL is looking like a great buy

[Horsefish]

Agree completely. Went to cash in October and then waited for this mess to progress. Now I'm having fun buying the short ETFs when the market rallies and then buying the tracking ETFs when the market drops. Has made for a pretty good January so far. Love volitility.:D

[wallstreetsedge]

funny that you mentioned ORI.. ive been saying that for a while on this forum


as for watching, i mean as in those stocks will determine where the market goes and im short on this market right now.. right now it looks like...

GOOG is on its way to 550
EMC is heading to 14
RMBS going to 12
BRLC goes to 2
AAPL goes to 140, minimum 160





i was looking for this post and saw everything hit their mark except for RMBS, it was actually a bit surprising to me that RMBS hasnt broken down... does anyone follow the company? on a fundamental point of view its just shocking...

ive noticed in recent days, theres been plenty of big selloffs from its intraday highs

[Rynn]

i was looking for this post and saw everything hit their mark except for RMBS, it was actually a bit surprising to me that RMBS hasnt broken down... does anyone follow the company? on a fundamental point of view its just shocking...

Rambus is a patent troll... They have no viable products, they just file lawsuits. This kind of company can generate large profits in the short term if they get a favorable court ruling, and that's what the speculation is based on. Long term, it's a terrible investment. In a few years, the patents will run out and RMBS will be worthless.

[wallstreetsedge]

i guess you can make a living out of suing people eh? ichan does it lol