Doug Kass's list of 20 Predictions for 2008

[englishman26]

Does anyone have a copy of these - always interesting and fun to see if they come true and I don't currently have a account on thestreet.com/realmoney.com.

Thanks!

[Thierry Martin]

Doug Kass wrote an article on TheStreet.com Improbable Surprises for 2008 - events that are unlikely, but perhaps more likely than people think.

Subscription is required to see them and the analysis behind it, but a search in Google produced a list of the headings in the article.

By the way, before you dismiss some of these predictions, almost half of Kass' last year's improbable surprises came to pass (up from 33% in 2006 and 20% in 2005).

Kass' 20 Surprises for 2008

1. The Housing Depression of 2007 morphs into the Retail Spending Depression of 2008.

2. Corporate profits drop by 10% in 2008.

3. The S&P 500 Index falls by 5%-10% in 2008.

4. Volatility pushes even higher. Daily moves of 1%-2% become commonplace.

5. The Federal Reserve eases monetary policy in 2008, with nearly every meeting accompanied by a 25 bp cut.

6. Growth in the Western European economies deteriorates.

7. The Chinese juggernaut continues apace. Chinese stock market doubles again in 2008.

8. The Japanese market puts on a surprising resurgence.

9. The housing bust accelerates. High profile bankruptcies in 2008 include Countrywide Financial (CFC), Beazer Homes (BZH), Hovnanian (HOV), Standard Pacific (SPF), WCI Communities (WCI) and Radian Group (RDN).

10. Financial stocks fail to recover.

11. Research in Motion (RIMM), Apple Computer (AAPL) and Google (GOOG) move into bubble status and their shares double in 2008.

12. Yahoo! (YHOO) and eBay merge. So do Amazon (AMZN)and Overstock.com (OSTK).

13. General Electric (GE) will sell NBC Universal to Time Warner (TWX), which will not sell or spin off AOL.

14. U.S. dollar's value falls by over 10% in 2008; Gold rises to over $1,000/oz.

15. The price of crude oil eclipses $135/barrel.

16. Acts of cyberterrorism occur that compromises the security of a major government. Financial markets will be exposed to hackers.

17. The Hedge fund community are disintermediated in 2008. Outflows accelerate.

18. There are several Enron-like accounting scandals in 2008.

19. Democrats Clinton/Kerrey and Republicans McCain/Crist represent their parties in the Presidential/Vice Presidential contest in November. Democrats grab the White House.

20. Sovereign Wealth Funds become targets of American politicians

Doug Kass
Real Money Silver (http://www.thestreet.com/b/dps/te/20071231/theedge1.html#entryId10396433) 12/31/07

[Rich]

I PRAY that none mentioned in 19 end up for selection in November!

Just how accurate is this guy?

[TonyM]

The first six would not surprise me and #19 would make me cry.

[Thierry Martin]

I PRAY that none mentioned in 19 end up for selection in November!

Just how accurate is this guy?

He got half his predictions right last year. (up from 33% in 2006 and 20% in 2005).

[englishman26]

19 out of 20 of those seem pretty likely to me. The exception being #19!

Surprised he didn't add Lennar to his bankrupt builders - and also point out that his list for #9 are likely to be the ones involved in #18.

[englishman26]

The full article is now free:

http://www.thestreet.com/s/kass-20-surprises-for-2008/newsanalysis/investing/10396519.html?puc=_txtttt

[aiki14]

I am rooting for 4,5 7, and 8. Doubtful of 2,3,9,10, and 17 (unless hedge fund investors hear about CGMFX, and decide to swim with the little fish).

[englishman26]

Really?! I'm pretty convinced 2,3, one from 9 (adding Lennar and a major bank), and 10 are all pretty likely.

Actually, one thing that struck when reading the article is that I felt he was making a big point of these predictions all being outliers but I felt they were all pretty mainstream and reasonable (other than maybe 11, 12, 13, and 17).

I find 11 the hardest to believe will come true (along with 19!!).